scimitar19
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@VEVAK
More points:
- IRIAF needs a high budget to do R&D in critical subsystems, and if it is not given to them they can just do what they have done til today: R&D on less critical systems, radios, altimeter, pumps, PGMs, AAMs, landing gears etc.
Making a copy of the J79 as prototype is such a hard task that they just can't do it with the budget they have (nor would it make sense, the only engine in Iran that would be worth it is the RD-33 and the small RQ-170 engine).
- Chinese did not buy the Al-31 because it was cheaper but because their own WS-10 had a much lower TBO.
You said:
"Lets say a Q-313 at the end of the day comes out to only $10 Million USD (Airframe, Engine, Sensors... but not including spare parts, maintenance costs, pilot gear, weapons,...) will 8 of them be able to take on a single $80 Million USD Su-35?
NO!
Will it be cheaper to fuel 8 $10 Million USD fighter or 1 Su-35?
Well right, the Su-35 would be cheaper to fuel. But if the Q-313 could be operated from small airfields, highways and so on where the Su-35 could not with a similar support footprint, then that benefit get smaller.
Will it be cheaper to build bunkers for 8 Q-313 or 1 Su-35?
There is no aircraft bunker that could survive multiple hits by penetration payloads of CM's. The Q-313 could be simple and rugged (+ short take off capabilities) enough to operate from the many airfields and highways with a very small ground support footprint. So if you don't have mountain tunnel airbases, dispersing Q-313 with no physical protection but just camouflage would be the most survivable concept for them.
Will it be easier to train pilots on 8 Q-313's or 1 Su-35?
The Q-313 could have a very high degree of automation. Actually in my idea of a very low ground effect land operation of it would require it to fly most of the flight via autopilot, avoid dogfights and mainly use two long range AAM's. It would act like a flying SAM and the bombing operations would also be highly automatized. Even automatic take off and landing could be implemented. My concept for the Q-313 might be wrong but if not, training pilots for it would be very low cost.
Will it be cheaper and faster to maintain 8 Q-313 or 1 Su-35?
Possibly the 8 Q-313. You might know that a F-5 needed something like 4-5 times less man hours for maintenance and I think for the F-14 it was something like 8 times. Now the Q-313 does not use a after burner and operates closer to a nominal regime because it does no dogfights in my concept of it.
The Su-35 is not comparable to the over-complex F-14 but the Q-313 could also be much easier to maintain than the F-5. The rugged, simple concept I foresee for the Q-313 would require very low maintenance requirements so that it would have to be designed for that goal.
And most important will Iran be able to produce at such a high rate?
If it is designed to be simple and low cost with a restricted operation regime, they could produce it in quantities. This is not a JF-17 which is small and cheap, but want to compete and operate like a F-16. No. The Q-313 team would not be foolish enough to compete with eastern and westerns, well established conventional airpower concept. Something asymmetrical is the only possible answer. I'm happy that the Q-313 makes sense for such a novel operation doctrine. If Iran would build something like the JF-17, I would agree production numbers would never reach necessary levels.
And I can keep going on an on
You are welcome. I'm not a friend of conventional manned airpower for a country with the boundary conditions like Iran, but the Q-313 looks promising.
I think at the time of the Azarashkh the IRIAF still had a powerful lobbying power. However as a conventional concept would lead Iran nowhere, those supporters of it were retired and further fighter R&D was stopped. A very positive thing if you ask me.
Now the Q-313 is a mod initiative that might lead the IRIAF to be re-equipped with a fighter, a possibly very unconventional one.
We know that the old IRIAF cadre wanted next after the Ararashkh and the Saeqhe, a JF-17 like light fighter. If they would have been successful with it and if it would have entered production due to the IRIAF veterans influence, it would have negative impact on Irans warfighting capability.
We all respect the IRIAF and it's veterans, but doctrinal development is the job of scientists and engineers. Well possible that Iran would have been attacked long ago, if those science based decision making for a missile force instead of re-equipping the IRIAF after the war was not made.
Something else VEVAK:
Titanium is a good thing to have. However you can do EVERYTHING titanium does with super steel alloys.
Titanium has high tensile strength for its weight and super steel alloys have higher MPa ratings but at higher weight.
What you say was true for the 70's/80's and if available its still state of the art today. However it is absolutely no show stopper for IRIAF R&D.
I give you and example: Due to its properties, Soviets decided to build titanium hull submarines in the 70's and 80's at immense costs. Alfa class submarines and other "titaniums" are today seen as one of the reasons Soviet defense expenses exploded and ultimately lead to its bankruptcy.
Today Russians have moved back to use super steel alloys for the best submarines, because it meanwhile has similar mechanical properties as titanium for it higher weight. The same is true for airframe structural elements. If Iran has not mastered such super steel alloys (very likely), those airframe structural parts would weight 50-25% more than a comparable titanium structural part. This is certainly something but certainly not a show stopper for R&D.
Today going for steel superalloys with +1500MPa ratings is a way to skip titanium and make easier use of 3D production methods. Mastering it is equally difficult as mastering titanium.
How should Iran go for conventional airpower when Russia pays low attention?
Our BMs are available in thousands to be used against area targets, first and foremost enemy airbases.
@VEVAK
I try to be progressive and not bound to old concepts. In some sense your pro manned-airpower position is reflected in materials with you titanium argumentation. It's obsolete.. there are alternatives.
The Russians are now playing with the idea to introduce just small number of PAK-FA/Su-57 into service until their economical situation improves. However there are no limitations for S-400 and Yars missiles.
Russia represents eastern airpower tradition and wants to keep it but they know about its limited role in a high intensity conflict. Now Russsia has the worlds most potent strategic nuclear forces, what about Iran? How should Iran go for conventional airpower when Russia pays low attention?
The cost-effect calculation just doesn't fit.
Next, you have a simplistic view on how incredibly difficult it is to copy an turbine engine. Iran now seems to have managed to copy the J85, a incredibly simple design. To get a J79 copy working with all computer support would still be a huge task. The RD-33 is generations more advanced than the J79 and still competitive. Thats why there are rumors about a heavily upgraded J85, as J90 next and a RD-33 copy for a larger fighter than the Q-313. However because it would be a monumental task to copy the RD-33 with any useful TBO rating, I would stop such a project and put the huge professional workforce necessary into missile or UCAV projects. As a reminder, for the Chinese the lifetime of the WS-10 was too low and hence its TBO to replace the Al-31:
Engine building is the highest discipline in material science and among the top in engineering. Iran is doing it, but for more useful things like cruise missiles and in future for ~2ton payload jet UCAV (S-171).
Regarding titanium: the most advanced engines would neither use it for the compressors (Al hybrid alloys) nor for the fans (carbon fiber/Al), even not at all. Iran could try to go for those technologies superior to Ti. Those, plus super steel alloys with high yield strength would be one way to skip titanium for engines and structural parts of the airframe (rest of the airframe should be composites anyway).
Fatigue and corrosion resistance properties for such super alloys pose no obstacle.
Catching up is done by Chinese with their huge resources. For Iran catching up to Ti or F-14 is no option, only novel new an unconventional approaches have chances to beat the leaders.
Your insistence on manned airpower and is the same as on Ti: There are alternatives.
The job of the Q-313 would be the following:
- Operate in friendly or at best contested airspace (not even the F-22 is survivable in an opposing advanced IADS environment)
- Operate inside IADS to have GCI provided situational awareness via continuous data-link connection.
- Use GCI to act like a fast, flexible SAM site with BVR Fakkur-90 like long range AAMs. Fill up holes and after the high intensity phase, enter enemy airspace for bombing missions.
- Employ miniaturized sensor electronics to achieve own situational awareness, much higher than the crude F-5 sensors/electronics.
- Be located anywhere except the home airbases in order to survive the first attack and remain operable.
- Never fly too far, as there is no tanker support that has survived the high intensity phase.
- A fleet of 600-800 built in 5 years is needed
All that can also be done by a swarm UAV/UACV fleet, which also includes jet powered ones like a S-171 bomber for heavy hauls. The single benefit is the anti-air BVR engagements, where a manned aircraft is a good benefit.
The missile/UACV combination can hardy be beaten in the cost-effect calculation. The king in costs is just a missile force that has such a devastating capability, that no low intensity phase with ground warfare etc. is necessary because the enemy is ready to come to the table.
FYI Air Defense systems loose over 50% of their effectiveness & survivability when they are not backed by and working along side an Air Force!
1st IRIAF having an R&D program has nothing to do with fighter production! Now how large your R&D program is can be debated but IRIAF having an R&D programs in various fields is a necessity not a luxury
2ndly Your talking about production of avionics, radars,.... and the parts required in a 4th gen fighter while I'm strictly talking about R&D. For the IRIAF to allocate ~2% of if human resources towards R&D should be the minimum requirement so if you have 25,000 personal at least 500 should be for R&D broken down into 10 teams of 50 personal
1.Team on Air Frame
2.Propulsion
3.Electronics Sensors, INS & cockpit electronics & displays
4.Metelergy, Composites....
5.Weapons & Weapons systems.
6.Radar & IRST
7.Flight control & Avionics (Fly by wire, Throttle, Hydraulics, electric pumps.....)
8.Pilot Gear & Survival
9.Communication Data link,....
10. Tools,.... cutting, welding, titanium casting, 3D printing, mass production concepts, vacuums,....
I would also have separate teams working on Lasers, Optics, Countermeasures, RCS & a few other things
IRIAF is not going to break if 500-700 of it's current personal strictly do R&D & IRIAF has more facilities than they know what to do with that just leaves materials & a limited number of tools & that's not too much to ask for an Air Force that hasn't purchased a fighter in 30 years
Now Titanium is one of the top 10 most abundant minerals in the world but to turn it into an alloy is expensive and you require a more rare mineral called magnesium which by the way the top producers of this alloy today are China, U.S., Russia, Israel,... & 2 years ago Iran started magnesium production & it seems we have such an abundance that they starting exporting it
And very soon titanium production facilities will also go operational
So overall it's absurd to think that Iran can't afford to give IRIAF enough raw martials to develop a new fighter prototype every 2 years
Has Iran evaluated JF-17 Thunder? What are the disadvantages/advantages of it for IRIAF? Anybody with details? PS image:
@VEVAK
With obsolete I didn't mean titanium but this argumentation of you that Ti is without alternatives.
You claim again and again that the lack of Ti is one main reason the IRIAF was not able to do R&D...
I'm not saying that Ti is bad, I just say the lack of it is no show stopper.
Your information is outdated. I told you about the alternatives available today.
Now, if you have a already existing Ti supply line, tools and vast experience, industry/companies you will keep it and use it. No need to go for steel super alloys or carbon fiber, as Ti is still competitive. I just told you that meanwhile there are alternatives which would potentially have only a acceptable performance penalty.
So no, the lack of Ti is not the reason why the IRIAF R&D didn't go beyond the Saeghe, that's the point.
Let me repeat myself: Today it is possible to develop state of the art fighters and engines without any use of Ti.
Your idea that Russians not want to start high number production of the Pak Fa because they await U.S 6th gen fighter is wrong.
Agreed the Su-35 is potent enough for F-22/35. But why should the Russians not acquire as much Pak Fa they can? If 5th gen. fighter are so detrimental for war fighting capability, they should reduce production of Iskander-M and S-400, put the resources on Pak Fa production.
They don't because neither Su-35 nor Su-57 has a higher priority for them as Iskander and S-400. Irans stance to weapon class priority should be going in the same direction and it does.
How so?
How bad is the situation for Iran currently?
Can Iran truly rely on missiles alone in a war time scenario?
If the requirement is in high numbers, we are open for ToT negotiation. FC-1,FC-20 or JH-7 all are capable aircraft And with good relations with China, you can hope to get trouble free fighter jet from sanctions etc with good supply chain management. Block III of JF-17 is reported to have all the above said specifications along with in flight air fueling capability. JF-17 along with the aerial threat also brings destruction to terrorists. It has successfully participated and even now continuing to target terrorists under Pakistan operations to wipe out terrorism.It could have been replacement for F-5E/F fleet.
May be if a TOT on a very modernized version is offered then it can be a good option for IRIAF. AESA+HMS and armed with RVV-MD and SD will pack a good punch if supported by AWACS.
If rumors are to be believed than China may offer FC-20C and JH-7 to IRIAF (Hope its TOT for FC-20).
IRIAF actually needs larger MRCA in higher numbers, we have a large area to cover.