IRIAF | News and Discussions

[Sineva]

Inflight video of f5 carrying new wing tip ew pods.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1688419830288859136

 

[TheImmortal]

The one caution I have regarding this China discussion is that they are not immune to poor and even disastrous policy making. Either way.

China’s population is estimated to decrease by 300M people by 2050. That is the entire population of Brazil disappearing in 25 years.

So China has its fair share of problems. It’s hegemony on the global stage is not rest assured as some on here like want us to believe. It suffers from a terrible inverted demographics pyramid.No easy solution to that.

US has benefit of immigration in the millions per year to offset any natural negative population growth. China does not have that benefit.

Iran’s value to China has largely been exaggerated. What tangible benefits has the 25 year “strategic deal” given Iran? Pakistan is much more valuable to Chinese interests than Iran at this point.

 

[sahureka2]

Russia Eyes Boosting Cooperation with Iran in Manufacturing Airplanes, Choppers
August, 06, 2023
https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/...with-iran-in-manufacturing-airplanes-choppers

 

[Flotilla]

And then China said, Iran’s islands belong to Arabs…

That´s another matter. China loves arabs because their national markets and their Silk Road iniciative...
...But needs Iran for distracting US military resources.

Anyway (returning to IRIAF matters) if Su35 deal derails, maybe IRIAF will never get any multirole heavyweight fighter. J16 cannot be purchased because of US pressure (and Israel and some arab states). At much a light fighter like JF17 or J10 and probably A or B version or even some Mig29.

It is frustrating.

 

[Flotilla]

https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/...with-iran-in-manufacturing-airplanes-choppers

Maybe this is the reason why Simorgh medium transport and Saba 248 helicopters regained more attention.

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Generally I dont pay too much attention to those small YT channels but if there is any ToT on TV3-117 or VK2500 that means that IRIAF could develop turbofan/shaft engines not only for Simorgh and Saba even for something bigger than IRGC´s Shahed 149 Gaza.

 

[Deino]

... J16 cannot be purchased because of US pressure (and Israel and some arab states).

Since when has US or Israel any influence on Chinese exports and how could it?

The issue is that the license production of all Chinese Flankers included a strict non-export clause.

 

[Piet]

Good post. Not something one sees everyday.

I will post an updated version of part 4 of my paper to Dropbox this evening. I think that it would be good to look at as it contained quite a few additions. Same URL.

In future I think that I will update this paper say every 30 days.

Enjoy.

P

Greetings

Updates, deletions, additions etc. uploaded to my Dropbox. In particular Parts 1,2,4 & 5.

All welcome of course.

Enjoy

P

 

[TheImmortal]

Since when has US or Israel any influence on Chinese exports and how could it?

You think Russia didn’t ask China for arms and supplies during its war with Ukraine?

China has taken relative neutrality after US/EU threatened sanctions if they overly supported Russia with physical arms to aid its war. Chinese support has been largely limited to importing Russia natural gas and cheap oil due to price cap.

 

[Deino]

You think Russia didn’t ask China for arms and supplies during its war with Ukraine?

China has taken relative neutrality after US/EU threatened sanctions if they overly supported Russia with physical arms to aid its war. Chinese support has been largely limited to importing Russia natural gas and cheap oil due to price cap.

Again, how could the US or Israel hinder such a such - which I rate most unlikely - if Cina would want to sell then?

IMO simply in NO way … as such, why then such a stupid and again typical political comment?

 

[SalarHaqq]

China secretly sends enough gear to Russia to equip an army ​

Shipments of military-capable hardware expose a China-sized loophole in Western sanctions.

According to customs records obtained by POLITICO, Russian buyers have declared orders for hundreds of thousands of bulletproof vests and helmets made by Shanghai H Win

By Sarah Anne Aarup, Sergey Panov and Douglas Busvine

July 24, 2023 7:00 am CET

China secretly sends enough gear to Russia to equip an army

Shipments of military-capable hardware expose a China-sized loophole in Western sanctions.

www.politico.eu

 

[Deino]

China secretly sends enough gear to Russia to equip an army ​

Shipments of military-capable hardware expose a China-sized loophole in Western sanctions.

According to customs records obtained by POLITICO, Russian buyers have declared orders for hundreds of thousands of bulletproof vests and helmets made by Shanghai H Win

By Sarah Anne Aarup, Sergey Panov and Douglas Busvine
July 24, 2023 7:00 am CET

China secretly sends enough gear to Russia to equip an army

Shipments of military-capable hardware expose a China-sized loophole in Western sanctions.

www.politico.eu

And how is this relevant to the IRIAF?

 

[TheImmortal]

if Cina would want to sell then?

Why would China not want to sell to one of its closest Allies (outside of Pakistan)? Do you believe that Russia has not asked China for overt military assistance via high tech arms, but asked only Iran —a country that it had up&down ties with prior to Ukraine war ?

BTW: No one here is saying US/Israel would physically stop China from exporting.

To get back on topic, Chinese military arms to Iran have largely been in the field of raw materials and components for its various military programs rather than finished high end products. Some radars in the last several years nothing gamechanging.

The last major Iranian-Chinese arms deal was for C-802 in the late 90’s/early 00’s. That deal did not go smoothly. The last major aircraft purchase between them was J-7/F-7. And not recently was Chinese involvement on an upgrade/modernization package for Iranian F-4’s (allegedly).

China quite simply hasn’t been a major arms exporter to Iran in the last 30 years in regards to finished products.

China’s strong economic ties to the West & Saudi Arabia make it questionable why it would ever agree to a major fighter jet deal with Iran and all the headaches that would involve. China isn’t cash strapped that it needs 5B-10B from an Iranian arms deal.

So what would entice China to sell any major aircraft to Iran?

Outside of a dramatic shift in Iranian-Chinese military relationship or a major breakdown in China’s relations with the West, it’s unlikely.

 

[Deino]

Why would China not want to sell to one of its closest Allies (outside of Pakistan)? Do you believe that Russia has not asked China for overt military assistance via high tech arms, but asked only Iran —a country that it had up&down ties with prior to Ukraine war ?

BTW: No one here is saying US/Israel would physically stop China from exporting.

To get back on topic, Chinese military arms to Iran have largely been in the field of raw materials and components for its various military programs rather than finished high end products. Some radars in the last several years nothing gamechanging.

The last major Iranian-Chinese arms deal was for C-802 in the late 90’s/early 00’s. That deal did not go smoothly. The last major aircraft purchase between them was J-7/F-7. And not recently was Chinese involvement on an upgrade/modernization package for Iranian F-4’s (allegedly).

China quite simply hasn’t been a major arms exporter to Iran in the last 30 years in regards to finished products.

China’s strong economic ties to the West & Saudi Arabia make it questionable why it would ever agree to a major fighter jet deal with Iran and all the headaches that would involve. China isn’t cash strapped that it needs 5B-10B from an Iranian arms deal.

So what would entice China to sell any major aircraft to Iran?

Outside of a dramatic shift in Iranian-Chinese military relationship or a major breakdown in China’s relations with the West, it’s unlikely.

Ok, this makes more sense, thanks for the explanation.

Concerning Chinese export a, I know there have been several issues and the IRIAF was not much happy so far, but the point is, China‘s products today are most likely not comparable to what they delivered once and given that Russia cannot deliver it is maybe the only other option IF the IRIAF is looking for aerial assets.

In the e d however I think Iran concentrates on drones and rockets.

 

[jauk]

Why would China not want to sell to one of its closest Allies (outside of Pakistan)? Do you believe that Russia has not asked China for overt military assistance via high tech arms, but asked only Iran —a country that it had up&down ties with prior to Ukraine war ?

BTW: No one here is saying US/Israel would physically stop China from exporting.

To get back on topic, Chinese military arms to Iran have largely been in the field of raw materials and components for its various military programs rather than finished high end products. Some radars in the last several years nothing gamechanging.

The last major Iranian-Chinese arms deal was for C-802 in the late 90’s/early 00’s. That deal did not go smoothly. The last major aircraft purchase between them was J-7/F-7. And not recently was Chinese involvement on an upgrade/modernization package for Iranian F-4’s (allegedly).

China quite simply hasn’t been a major arms exporter to Iran in the last 30 years in regards to finished products.

China’s strong economic ties to the West & Saudi Arabia make it questionable why it would ever agree to a major fighter jet deal with Iran and all the headaches that would involve. China isn’t cash strapped that it needs 5B-10B from an Iranian arms deal.

So what would entice China to sell any major aircraft to Iran?

Outside of a dramatic shift in Iranian-Chinese military relationship or a major breakdown in China’s relations with the West, it’s unlikely.

Correct. China’s economic entanglement with the West is key to China’s behavior. It is key to understand, however, they are taking steps to unentangle while preserving wealth. This will be a combination of foreign, monetary and fiscal steps. Very complex and very cautiously. While take awhile.

The US knows this and they’re throwing as many sabots in this strategy. Ie ‘sabot’aging it. The frolicking with Taiwan and the China Sea is one example. The last thing the US wants is transfer of wealth out of its domain.

 

[Flotilla]

Since when has US or Israel any influence on Chinese exports and how could it?

China has been always very good relations with Israel (let me be explicit, Phalcon radar and Lavi, if not any ToT for HJ12 based in Spike family). So any military deal for renewing the IRIAF would be inmediately answered by Israel closing any major transaction or agreement.
Anyway I always preferred J16 over Su35.

China’s strong economic ties to the West & Saudi Arabia make it questionable why it would ever agree to a major fighter jet deal with Iran and all the headaches that would involve. China isn’t cash strapped that it needs 5B-10B from an Iranian arms deal.

Agreed.