Trump's maximum pressure campaign did have a significantly negative and detrimental effect on Iran's economy at first.However since then Iran's economy has bounced back and Iran has adjusted to the situation.
One of the reasons why Trump was able to do that was because the Rohani administration made the mistake of putting all of Iran's eggs in one basket. All hope was put into the nuclear deal, everything into relations with the west.
Not nearly enough emphasis was put onto Iran having relations with the east, at the very least as potential as a insulation / diversification strategy just incase if something were to happen with the west. That was very short sighted strategy. However in 2016 Iran did see 13% GDP growth right and at first after the deal inflation was slashed. It did work as long as the west stayed in the deal but the deal didn't hold.
Anyways now Iran's economy is steadily growing every year, not explosive growth but steady 2% and higher. Also if we consider GDP per capita it's probably more a more accurate indication for Iran. Different sources give different values, but there's no way that Iran's economy is worth 200 billion only today. That's just silly. Iran has the largest reserves of natural gas on the planet and 4th largest reserves of crude.
Right now Iran is selling 1 million barrels to China daily and that's what's admitted officially. The US asked China to cut back on Iranian crude, China outright said "NO WAY" and China just sent 2 men, one is a 50 year old general and one woman to space.
Right now China, the UK, EU, Lebanon are facing power crisis' and the winter has barely just started. Natural gas prices just passed a vital resistance point which indicates that it "could" go as high as 2008 rates. western Europe decided not to sign long term deals with Russia so they're screwed. Poland, Hungary are fine though because they locked in long term prices with Russia.
That's the thing about renewables. What happens when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine ? I mean that's rare right but that's basically what's happening. Even in 20 years from now I'm telling you fuel has to be in the mix atleast 1/3rd or 20% of consumption for any nation just in case right ?
Anyways aside from China, we know that right now Iran is supplying what Afghanistan, Syria, Lebanon, Venezuela and this is what we know about in the media. Right now Iran's oil / energy sales are likely on par or above pre-Trump sanctions level sales.
Also in terms of Turkey economy. Remember in 2005 they slashed 6 zeros. It was 1 USD o 1.2 Lira then 1 USD to 1.5, now it's what 1 to 9 ? It's going to 10 and above. I don't even know how Erdogan can get re-elected since 80% of Istanbul is against his Canal Istanbul project. His relatives are direct beneficiaries of that project.
Another issue with Erdogan is that he keeps insisting on keeping interest rates low to lower inflation. 99% of economists suggest the opposite stating that keeping interest low leads to higher inflation. It's obvious, he doesn't want to lose his own family and friends access to cheap loans. It's that simple.
Economists suggest that since Erdogan came to power Turkey has become wealthier but the average Turk is not wealthier, so then where did the wealth go ? Who did become wealthier ? Didn't you see the report on the Aliyev family in the Pandora papers ?
Corruption exists everywhere. You think in the west it doesn't ? Look at Nancy Pelosi. She makes $200,000 per year working a government job. That's 2 million in 10 years. In 20 years that's 4 million she could accumulate assuming she had no expenses.
How does she have a fortune worth $200 million ? Apparently her husband is a professional investor but realistically Is he the best investor on earth ? Better that Buffer or Bezos ? Btw why does Bezos pay an average tax rate of 1-2% per year while high school teachers pay a higher percentage ?
It's all legal though, it's all through tax loop holes, because when you have that much money, you can "lobby" government officials through "lobby funds". Essentially you're transfer funds to people on influence through lobby groups or political donations and it's all Kosher on paper.
On paper you're not getting anything in return and it's all legal. However when people in power are passing laws that favor them financially, then in reality the wealthiest are using their wealth to fix the system so that the tax burden falls on the middle class rather than super wealthy billionaires, is it fair though ? is it right ? Is it just ? It is moral ? Is it corruption ? class favoritism ? No but it's just the way it is.
What about real estate in the west, all the money, where is it coming from ? 1/3rd of house sales are from offshore shell companies. Where did the money come from ? Many analysts believe it's corruption money funneled from China.
What do you think has been happening in China with Xi cracking down hard on various industries one after another ? Why are there so many empty ghost cities or half finished projects in China ? Who keeps the money ? Where does it go ? Ordinary people take out a loan with interest so that they can put a down payment on an apartment before it's even built.
The company then builds a shell, claims insolvency and ordinary citizens are left to pay off the loans while in reality the billions if not trillions has been funneled and entire families have moved to the west with dirty money they funneled. If companies were allowed to keep operating this bubble would have swallowed up the entire world.
Instead Xi introduced new restrictions, more regulations which level out the playing field and some CEOs and wealthy individuals are closely monitored, not allowed to leave the country. In the end, if they don't pay back the loans, they can pay with their lives. Honestly it's a more just system than unregulated capitalism.
Unregulated capitalism without any restrictions or oversight will always lead to greed becoming too prevalent, which leads to another crash or recession/depression. Who suffer during these downturns ? Ordinary people, middle class. Who actually become wealthier during these times ? The super wealthy of course. Some Americans are so dumb they act as if they invented capitalism and they think it's the greatest think since the invention of the wheel. It's just a vicious cycle repeating itself over and over again and again.
Actually you didn’t because
Turkey based on nominal US GDP using 2010 rates is this:
View attachment 785375
1.284T USD
But when we use (Current $USD) to account for the drop in Lira in last decade we get this:
View attachment 785376
$720B USD
Curiously enough you use
current USD for Turkey, yet
nominal GDP for Iran to show Iranian and Turkish economy being similar in size. I respect you so I am going to say this was an error and not a blatant attempt at manipulating presentation of data.
In reality, under nominal GDP measure using non-real world numbers Turkish economy is in best case scenario 2x Iranian economy size. Thus not anywhere close like you made it seem.
I think we can all agree there is no way in hell Turkish Erodgan economy is 1.2T USD today thus using nominal GDP based on 2010 USD rate is useless for grasping today’s values.
So when we take the
true currency rate of both countries as represented by the
variable Current $USD....both countries suffer in drop in the value of their economy as both countries curriences have plummeted against the dollar and Iran suffers the most due to a much worse drop (1.2 to 27.5)