I agree with almost everything you said.
The foundation was there in the beginning. Had you only had a true nationalistic leader instead of a racist Arab as a leader, the situation would be different. I dont believe US would have ever dared to invade a country with 20 million united people. But just for the sake of argument, lest say they did invade, and did cause as much damage, it would take you a lot less than 17 years to rebuild your country.
My point is, today, there is no longer anything to unite over. The damage is done. Maybe the situation will change after a couple 100 years, when everyone has forgotten the atrocities. But now, you cant force Kurds to feel Iraqi. You cant even make the Sunnis and Shias get along. Are Iraqi Kurds, Arab Shias and Sunnis, Turkmens etc goin to rally under the Iraqi flag? I dont think so.
The only option is to either divide Iraq. Or create a new modern identity that builds on the old history of the Abbasids, Saladdins empire, the Assyrian and Babylonian empire. A new Iraq where there is absolute tolerance between every single ethnicity and religion. But then you will face a new threat, US will do everything within their power to make the Kurds the new elite, the rich who is in power, while keeping the Arabs poor. And then, eventually, a new Saddam will rise, but this time he will be a Kurd.
The damage is done indeed, what we have now is a secterian nation, occupied by a foreign force, with an election system that amplifies and rewards the incitement of Identity politics, thus maintaing a cycle of internal conflict.
Iraq is unlikely to be able to rebuild a unifying Identity in the current climate, not when its positioned at the center of 3 regional powers and 1 global superpower, all want to dominate or reform the region.
However, a division of the country is an unlikely solution either for a number of reasons.
- How should the mixed provinces be divided ?
Baghdad is of historical, symbolic and religous importance to both sects, Samara is majority Sunni but has a Shia shrine with a minority in it, I will leave Karkuk for last as that is its own can of worms.
- There are border conflicts between the provinces.
Karbala province has a claim on nukhaib (نخيب), a region that is currently part of Al-anbar province, it was part of Karbala for a period of time then Sadam made it part of Anbar... nukhaib is important because it constitutes the entire border of any Sunni nation with SA.
The kurds have their own set of claims over all surrounding provinces, these issue are dormant now but will absolutely surface if things head that way.
- A sunni nation would be a stillborn
Even if somehow a division plan with the Shia is made to work, the Sunni part of the country is a landlocked piece of land bordering turkey, which will absolutely move to annex mosul, leaving a desert, few fertile lands and scarce resources with the exception of oil-rich karkuk, and speaking of Karkuk.
- Everyone wants karkuk to themselves
Karkuk has kurds in it, which means kurds want it, it has Turkmen in it, which means turkey wants a share in it, it has Arabs in it, which means any Sunni nation would want it.
Finally it has oil, which means all parties will kill for it and it is indeed the stage of ongoing conflict between the central government and the kurdish government
(they have a government).
Due note that a conflict regarding any of the points above would not be resolved without a bloody war, which would still leave both the would-be Sunni and kurdish nations as landlocked mini-states fighting over oil, surrounded by hostile neighbors, the best they can hope to be is US bases.
So a division of the country is easy to suggest, but is very hard in practice and is of dire consequences, the current state of the country is miserable albeit still better than the alternative.
We can only try and fix what we have... hopefully.