Pandora
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Lol......i respect your answer - simple but powerful. But allow me to just spill some of my thoughts on this a lil - what is there for Iran to get desperate about WHEN:
1. US is retreating from the Middle east to focus on a worrisome China.
2. Iran and CHina's mega deal is already in place and supporting Iran and its economic vision and strategy
3. Iranian allies are winning or dominating in almost/if not all battleground spaces - Yemen, iraq, Syria, Lebanon (case closed), etc all boast stable, powerful, Iranian allies, patrons & allies, MEANWHILE, US and ISrael that rely on modern military technology cant win wars,wait, thats even too much- they cant even snatch an Iranian oil tanker!
4. US allies and friends are on the downtrend- when i look at US allies, i see (expectedly), countries that wont lift a hand up to fire a bullet if US doesnt start and lead....what else led US to share Secret nuclear technology with Australia? thats like self sabotage for self rescue????
5. Israel is down - Israel is rattling alot in the region, because nothing is really going Israel's way - bombed Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, and didnt even get basic respect for their ineffective weapons. Gaza almost handicapped the state of ISrael recently, so atm, no US ally can actually take on the resistance alone and have even a decent chance of winning. Israel is stil planning for probably the 100th year, its logistics on how to fly to IRan to bomb hardened nuclear sites. They're so ready, they cant do it.
6. Iran's civilian and military nuclear programs are now advanced and IDIOT trump allowed it to go off the IAEA's radar, so in essence, Iran is AT LEAST a breakout nuclear state.....who will go and bomb that now?
7. Patrolling Persian gulf is cheap for Iran- local weapons, local context, local currencies, local beefs, local realities, ALL benefit Iran and thats why people frequently sayu : - "foreigners will always leave".
well if was stupid or desperate, what cost did Iran pay for it? usually stupidity has a cost, but till today, i dunno what cost IRan paid for that brave, surprise, ingenious- bombing their stupid heads using the radar gaps that was in front of everyone but no one wanted to focus on.
Whatever the case the fact is Irani influence in Iraq is dwindling. The problem here is that religious affiliation kept iraq in one piece but now geo political considerations are also at Play. If iraq wants to reap economic benefit it will have to get out of Irani orbit to pursue its own game. It is not the first time hot headed IRGC has gone ahead and done something which is counter productive. Even if it wasn't Iran end result is still the same. Whoever did it played a very smart move to implicate iran during a crucial point. Coming days even Religious leaders will been seen moving away from pro iran narrative bcz at the end of day its a game of interests. At the end i would like to say that Historically Iraq Iran relations have always been tense. Temporarily common objectives brought the two together but times are changing now.