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I wish we could see what would be happen if there would be no deal.
The deal saved IRI of economic collapsing. Iran unblocked over 150 billion dollars of its own money. iran have been selling oil over 2 and half million barrels while before deal it was less than 700 thousand barrels and was falling down day by day.
Iran got investment from international companies in many industries such as mining, oil and gas ,Automotive and etc.
If you want to blame something, start with foreign policy since the beginning after revolution.
The problem is about several security council resolutions. if the deal break up for any reason, all those security council resolutions will automatically be Returned and iran will be completely Isolated in a sudden and even it wont be able to work and trade with small companies in any country. so it will be a victory for trump while he is struggling with other security council powers, he Applying several security council resolutions against iran without getting any sign and vote of the council members.
the period of Returning resolutions automatically will be end in next 7 years. after that iran will be treated by internatinal laws as a normal situation country and also monitoring on its nuclear program will be in normal level. in that time if anything happens, they need to start from beginning in UN and security council.
to cut a long story short, you have to choose between bad and worth.
zaman ahmadinejad ke aghaye jalili miraft to mozakerat o ensha mikhund o fardash ye ghatnameye jadid zede iran tasvib mishod o aghaye ahmadinejad migoft ienghadr ghatname bedin ta ghatname dunetoon pare she, inja mitunim fajeye aafaride shode o asaratesh ro bebinim.
after that iran will be treated by internatinal laws as a normal situation country and also monitoring on its nuclear program will be in normal level. in that time if anything happens, they need to start from beginning in UN and security council.
the period of Returning resolutions automatically will be end in next 7 years. after that iran will be treated by internatinal laws as a normal situation country and also monitoring on its nuclear program will be in normal level. in that time if anything happens, they need to start from beginning in UN and security council.
to cut a long story short, you have to choose between bad and worth.
I honestly miss the days of Khomeini to be honest. we need another no nonsense decisive leader like him.
Khamenei is way too cautious and timid for my liking.
Khomeini had empty hands, an all out war imposed on iran, the US at top of its game on irans throat and threatning war and was leading a very weak and shaky revolutionary government.. Yet the guy was absolutely fearless and never blinked.
Iran today is a hell of a lot stronger and in a far stronger and more stable position. Yet Khamenei doesn't have remotely that same confidence/decisiveness as his predecessor.
we need to return to that revolutionary decisiveness. Even the euro sissies have come to the understanding that trump is a bully and the only way to talk to a bully is standing up to him.
These westerners are terrified of fearless islamists. that's what they feared from Khomeini. We need to go back to that revolutionary decisiveness.
this semi-pragmatic approach is not working, and is only leading to iran getting tricked into giving concessions for nothing.
if Khomeini was around. There is no question in my mind iran would have left the NPT by now, started building nukes, and ratcheted up tensions massively in the straight of hormuz. calling the orange buffoon on his bluff and daring the US to do something about it.
"America cant do a damn thing" was literally the guys motto. khomeini was an islamic reza shah...... RIP imam khomeini
Well said sir,well said!.Hey how are you? long time no see ....
.
So far Iran has not breached the accord and IAEA has certified our fully compliance recently again. The SL just ordered for preparation within JCPoA framework.
On the other hand the US has already walked away from the deal, EU is trying to persuade Iran to stay in the deal by saying it would stand against the US sanctions and provide Iran with what it's given in the JCPoA.
Meanwhile the US sanctions is gonna reimposed in less than 6 months, means:
1. EU as I said would follow the US as France is about to withdraw.By having EU records in 2003~2005 and their reluctance to respect their agreements I think the current EU stance is nothing but a trick to make Iran to stay in the deal so while Iran would be a good boy and adhere to the deal in 6 months Iran would face sanctions whilst implementing the deal lonely and probably EU reluctance to cooperate under the excuse of the US sanctions (many EU and none-EU companies have already announced their readiness to stop trade with Iran) and that's just begging. In that moment continuous of JCPoA would be tied to other issues (already) they would say if you (Iran) wants us to stay in JCPoA you should come to table and talk about your missiles, regional activities and so on, in that moment you would realize not only you've given up your N-program for it now you have to give up your missiles and region to get same JCPoA (which they don't adhere) and still there is no guarantee that they would stop there.
2. EU would pretend it's doing its best playing good cop but at the end of 6 month would stand aside and leave us with the US alone (probably would stand with the US)
3. EU would stand against the US.
In 2012 we had:
1: 27k centrifuges spinning.
2: Arak heavy reactor.
3: 3.5% and 20 % enrichment.
4: Fordow enrichment facility.
5. An active space program.
6. An active missile program.
What you have right now to bargain if at the end of 6 months EU says I can not stand in the deal? already they want us negotiation over aforementioned issues let alone in 6 months.
So I think the best way to deal with hypocrites is bringing nuclear card on the table again.
And I don't agree on this:
Not gonna happen, I said it before ... the nuclear program is a pretext not an issue what would you expect a nation to do to ensure it's not after nuke?
NPT and its safeguard? since 1968~9?
Additional protocol and its inspections? since 2004?
JCPoA? since 2015?
And they still want more and nag all the time, so does it mean they're gonna be cool with it in 7 years? I don't think so.
I see this the bigger picture:
First nuclear program.
Second missile program.
Third regional activities.
Forth Iraq and Libya scenario.
To sum up if even we want to keep JCPoA alive we should spice it up.
Hey how are you? long time no see ....
.
So far Iran has not breached the accord and IAEA has certified our fully compliance recently again. The SL just ordered for preparation within JCPoA framework.
On the other hand the US has already walked away from the deal, EU is trying to persuade Iran to stay in the deal by saying it would stand against the US sanctions and provide Iran with what it's given in the JCPoA.
Meanwhile the US sanctions is gonna reimposed in less than 6 months, means:
1. EU as I said would follow the US as France is about to withdraw.By having EU records in 2003~2005 and their reluctance to respect their agreements I think the current EU stance is nothing but a trick to make Iran to stay in the deal so while Iran would be a good boy and adhere to the deal in 6 months Iran would face sanctions whilst implementing the deal lonely and probably EU reluctance to cooperate under the excuse of the US sanctions (many EU and none-EU companies have already announced their readiness to stop trade with Iran) and that's just begging. In that moment continuous of JCPoA would be tied to other issues (already) they would say if you (Iran) wants us to stay in JCPoA you should come to table and talk about your missiles, regional activities and so on, in that moment you would realize not only you've given up your N-program for it now you have to give up your missiles and region to get same JCPoA (which they don't adhere) and still there is no guarantee that they would stop there.
2. EU would pretend it's doing its best playing good cop but at the end of 6 month would stand aside and leave us with the US alone (probably would stand with the US)
3. EU would stand against the US.
I see this the bigger picture:
First nuclear program.
Second missile program.
Third regional activities.
Forth Iraq and Libya scenario.
To sum up if even we want to keep JCPoA alive we should spice it up.
In 2012 we had:
1: 27k centrifuges spinning.
2: Arak heavy reactor.
3: 3.5% and 20 % enrichment.
4: Fordow enrichment facility.
5. An active space program.
6. An active missile program.
What you have right now to bargain if at the end of 6 months EU says I can not stand in the deal? already they want us negotiation over aforementioned issues let alone in 6 months.
So I think the best way to deal with hypocrites is bringing nuclear card on the table again.
And I don't agree on this:
Not gonna happen, I said it before ... the nuclear program is a pretext not an issue what would you expect a nation to do to ensure it's not after nuke?
NPT and its safeguard? since 1968~9?
Additional protocol and its inspections? since 2004?
JCPoA? since 2015?
And they still want more and nag all the time, so does it mean they're gonna be cool with it in 7 years? I don't think so.
The benefits of becoming normal member are going to dismissed by the facts that US/Europe could sanction Iran even without UN, and Iran will suffer almost as badly as due to the UN resolution.
Even without UN resolutions, the combined pressure of US/Europe/Saudi block will not Iran to proper.
Therefore, it's really doesn't mean anything to Iran to stay in the JCPO for next 7 years, and hope for any good.
1.He just said be ready.
2. The current pigs in government and AEOI wont do anything, even if he orders.
Thanks I am gooood.hello brother, I'm fine, thanks.
yes,long time no see and how are you?
All what have you said is true. As i said IR has to choose between bad and worth.
and Iran's economy and many industries got destroyed or damaged heavily instead and couldn't get recovery yet.
The systematic corruption had been created by situation in that time.
before the JCPoA. IR played with nuclear card on the table for years and in return imposed many pressures on people lifes,welfare and economy. IR was collapsing, thats why IR made a deal to save from it.
but right now IR doesnt have the strength to stand against similar situation and pressures. economy is already damaged, corruption is in high level , people are under pressure and prostesting. water problem and other environmental problems, poverty and ... even right now you can see many protests or strikes in iran.
in best case, IR has to suppress people heavily to just stay in power and Iran will be like N.korea. but probably before that it collapses.
I said in international law. US and european governments can bully Iran and impose sanction against her. but iran still can trade with independent small companies or with other countries normally and wont be counted as a threat to the world peace. with those resolutions you will be counted as a threat to the world and all countries has to follow sanctions.
right now you just lost big companies and main benefition. but with those resolutions you will become completely Isolated and will be counted as a threat to the world peace by international community.
it takes 12 years for obama to made it. and nor china nor russia would be able to trade with iran.
yes but iran can survive and wont be Isolated and counted as a threat to world peace by international community.
and after 7 years, it takes again long years for them to make a Global coalition and impose a new Resolution against iran in security council.
just as an example. right now iran cant buy airbus airplanes because of US sanctions. but still can buy su-100 super jets or having trade with small companies who have not big trade with america. but with those resolutions iran cant trade even grass with anyone.
Right now US only can invade iran alone and will be blamed by international community as committing crimes. with those resolutions all the world blame iran and support the invasion.
The problem is about several security council resolutions. if the deal break up for any reason, all those security council resolutions will automatically be Returned and iran will be completely Isolated in a sudden and even it wont be able to work and trade with small companies in any country. so it will be a victory for trump while he is struggling with other security council powers, he Applying several security council resolutions against iran without getting any sign and vote of the council members.
the period of Returning resolutions automatically will be end in next 7 years. after that iran will be treated by internatinal laws as a normal situation country and also monitoring on its nuclear program will be in normal level. in that time if anything happens, they need to start from beginning in UN and security council.
to cut a long story short, you have to choose between bad and worth.