Iranian Space program

[TheImmortal]

So far Qaem-100 didn't put anything in orbit. And I don't think Qaem-105 is "weak". 200kg payload to LEO in a mobile and compact (and very advanced) design is a very important SLV for Iran

200kg (max load) is weak. I don’t think you realize that. Israeli governments SLV does up to 800kg and that is while firing into a retrograde orbit which leads to weak payload! They cannot do a traditional East launch due to location of hostile countries.

No doubt ISA's program has been a failure after a promising first few years (9th country to independently place satellite into orbit, sent monkeys to space and recovered them alive, 4/6 launch success rate for Safir SLV, but all downhill since then).

Some of the monkey(s) died actually. It was irresponsible and propaganda at its finest. With questionable scientific value. The SLVs at the time were nothing more than 1960’s tech slapped together to fly to space.

IRGC program is not a failure:

2020: First launch of Qased SLV (25-40kg to LEO, 3/3 orbital launch success rate so far)
2023/24 (TBC): First successful orbital launch of Qaem-100 (80kg to LEO, 0/1 orbital launch success rate so far)
2024/25 (TBC): First successful orbital launch of Qaem-105 (200kg to LEO)

It is a failure given the entity in question and how they could have done this years ago. Who do you think assists the ISA? The IRGC. You think a public entity in Iran has ability to make the rockets? No they are delivered by IRGC affiliated companies.Many IRGC engineers assist with the launches, just look at the two that died recently in the space center. Both IRGC engineers.

The IRGC has their fair share of blame for the ISA failures. They built Simorgh knowing 2nd stage was weak and due to ISA not launching we sat on a 2009 era design for years before finally moving away from it.

Qaem-105 - they should both reach 200kg payload to LEO capability around c. 2024-2026.

Like I said a joke. Compare that to Rocketlab’s Neutron rocket that will be ready at the same time which can carry 13,000kg to LEO. Rocketlab’s current tiny rocket does 300kg to LEO with 41 launches and their first public mission in 2017. Compare that to ISA starting in 2008 and still doesn’t have a successful SLV that can do 300kg to LEO.

Rocketlab is a smaller publicly traded space company (non government backed). I won’t even compare Iran’s programs to the private giants like Boeing/UAL or even SpaceX.

So anyway you try spin this, neither program is “impressive”. Neither is launching 100-200kg to LEO. Problem is it seems as Iranians we have lowered the bar after a series of impressive advancements by Iran’s military and civilian sectors. But past innovation shouldn’t lead to complacency or accepting lower accomplishments in the future.

A great real world example of this is Apple. Amazing innovator in the past and now just does the bare minimum and gets praised for it.

Outside of Iran’s airforce, Iran’s space program is the next biggest disappointment in last 15 years.

 

[HGV]

200kg (max load) is weak. I don’t think you realize that. Israeli governments SLV does up to 800kg and that is while firing into a retrograde orbit which leads to weak payload! They cannot do a traditional East launch due to location of hostile countries.

Most of the Israeli spy sats are 300-400kg AFAIK

Some of the monkey(s) died actually. It was irresponsible and propaganda at its finest. With questionable scientific value. The SLVs at the time were nothing more than 1960’s tech slapped together to fly to space.

One monkey died but Fargam and another lived. Irresponsible? What are you, PETA? It's very common for countries to send animals to space

It is a failure given the entity in question and how they could have done this years ago. Who do you think assists the ISA? The IRGC. You think a public entity in Iran has ability to make the rockets? No they are delivered by IRGC affiliated companies.Many IRGC engineers assist with the launches, just look at the two that died recently in the space center. Both IRGC engineers.

The IRGC has their fair share of blame for the ISA failures. They built Simorgh knowing 2nd stage was weak and due to ISA not launching we sat on a 2009 era design for years before finally moving away from it.

IRGC does not build Simorgh, MOD does AFAIK. IRGC offered to help provide engines for ISA program and maybe they observe/assist launches but they do not "build Simorgh"

Like I said a joke. Compare that to Rocketlab’s Neutron rocket that will be ready at the same time which can carry 13,000kg to LEO. Rocketlab’s current tiny rocket does 300kg to LEO with 41 launches and their first public mission in 2017. Compare that to ISA starting in 2008 and still doesn’t have a successful SLV that can do 300kg to LEO.

Rocketlab is a smaller publicly traded space company (non government backed). I won’t even compare Iran’s programs to the private giants like Boeing/UAL or even SpaceX.

So anyway you try spin this, neither program is “impressive”. Neither is launching 100-200kg to LEO. Problem is it seems as Iranians we have lowered the bar after a series of impressive advancements by Iran’s military and civilian sectors. But past innovation shouldn’t lead to complacency or accepting lower accomplishments in the future.

Rocketlab was founded in 2006 and the first successful launch of their Electron SLV (in same class as Qaem-105/Zoljanah) was in 2018. The IRGC space program started in 2020 and if they achieve a first successful launch of Qiam-105 in 2025 (not certain), that will be impressive by any measure.

Iran is in the same space league as Israel, South Korea, North Korea and Turkey, not the USA or Apple. South Korea needed substantial Russian assistance for 13 years but then succeeded with the Nuri SLV after investing billions of $ into it. Iran doesn't have those funds or the industrial development of South Korea and so the civilian program has been a failure so far. The IRGC program cannot be called a failure

 

[TheImmortal]

Most of the Israeli spy sats are 300-400kg AFAIK

I’m talking about the load of SLV. Israel never built a stronger SLV because they had no need it for. Other countries will gladly launch their satellites. Iran doesn’t have that luxury. Till recently even Russia refused to launch our satellites.

We need to have our domestic SLVs for all lift categories (including for Mars, yes for Mars) because we have no true allies that will assist us in this area.

Irresponsible? What are you, PETA? It's very common for countries to send animals to space

It’s common to do studies on animals in space to understand how their bodies react to long time in space and other similar areas of studies.

However, It’s widely documented in medical journals the launch of a monkey into space on a sounding rocket. That was done decades ago. You aren’t magically going to learn anything more. No scientific value added besides propaganda.

Now if they were testing a monkey on a SLV that was equipped with a manned human capsule to test the capsule for safety reasons then that of course is different.

IRGC does not build Simorgh, MOD does AFAIK. IRGC offered to help provide engines for ISA program and maybe they observe/assist launches but they do not "build Simorgh"

MOD is an agency so they don’t build anything. That’s like saying DOD builds weapons. They all outsource (contract out) to companies in Iranian industrial complex. And who do you think those companies are connected to? Considering that Simorgh first stage is a cluster of Shahab-3 engines then you can bet IRGC is involved with the stages and assembly.

Ever wonder why ISA tech lags so much? Anything given to ISA can be counted on being leaked to every intelligence agency in the West. That is what comes with having a government space program for the public good, unlike the nuclear program it’s not going to be extremely vetted and restrictive to enter.

That is the issue right now, ISA relies on the similar dual use tech as Iran’s BM programs, a program our enemies would love nothing more to get data on. Did you know that during JCPOA John Kerry told Zarif one of the demands for the US was to hand over flight data on its BMs and that eventually they wanted to have Western observers at future missile tests. Literally laughable how dumb they thought Iran was.

But hey they tricked Putin into thinking that the missile interceptors they put into Poland 10 years ago were made to counter “Iranian ballsitic missile threat” to Europe and had nothing to do with Russia.

Rocketlab was founded in 2006 and the first successful launch of their Electron SLV (in same class as Qaem-105/Zoljanah) was in 2018. The IRGC space program started in 2020 and if they achieve a first successful launch of Qiam-105 in 2025 (not certain), that will be impressive by any measure.

You are comparing a private space company using its own limited funds with the capabilities of a nation state?

I wouldn’t directly compare timelines as that’s not impressive by any means. Rocketlab had to design and build their own engines themselves including for newer Neutron rocket. It’s not like they got handed engines from a government agency to use. Not to mention all the red tape and compliance that surrounds public companies and using such technologies thus all the approvals and delays by governments and agencies, etc.

Thus for Iran, Government backed or military backed space program should move much quicker than private sector for a plethora of reasons.

Rocketlab was founded in 2006 and the first successful launch of their Electron SLV (in same class as Qaem-105/Zoljanah) was in 2018.

First successful flight was May 2017.

Iran is in the same space league as Israel, South Korea, North Korea and Turkey, not the USA or Apple.

Iran is not in the same league as North Korea. Please don’t compare our country and the size of our economy to a hermit kingdom with 50B GDP. Our aspirations should be on the level of India, raise them not lower them into the dirt.

Iran doesn’t have the luxury of Israel, Turkey, or SK that can have a company like SpaceX or Rocketlab or a friendly ally/government launch its satellites on its behalf without the headache and costs of maintaining launch facilities.

Iran’s geopolitical reality means it needs to build everything itself when it comes to critical technologies. That’s the nature of the beast when you decided to challenge the world order lead by Anglo Saxon Imprealist and the only non aligned countries with power are Russia and China who hardly want to assist you grow stronger.

Given the situation, There is zero sense of urgency on a matter that is of great importance for humanity for next 250 years.

South Korea needed substantial Russian assistance for 13 years but then succeeded with the Nuri SLV after investing billions of $ into it.

South Korea also is nowhere near Iran in engine technology that is why they have struggled. Up until recently they didn’t have a true BM program and still don’t when it comes to a long range program. Look it up. Iran is actually ahead of SK in this field which is one of the most critical areas of space launch (ie actual vehicle power management).

so the civilian program has been a failure so far. The IRGC program cannot be called a failure

Let’s clear something up, you are the one who first labeled the civilian program a failure, not me. I said the civilian program is a joke and neither program is impressive. Then you said IRGC program is not a failure (Again your initiation) and thus I responded and said that Entity’s (IRGC) failure for their involvement in the ISA program and that they deserve their share of blame for that programs complete underperformance as Simorgh was ultimately developed using IRGC engineers, tech, and assistance. I didn’t say IRGC is the complete reason for the ISA either.

As for the IRGC program, it is not impressive. They have quite a few tools and technologies that they could use to assemble more poweful SLVs and they have had these for a while.

Ex. Qaem (the real Qaem not this imitation) was a design/prototype that supposedly was mastered way back in 2010 by Tehrani Moghdam and his team. Shortly later he mysteriously died in the infamous explosion and Iran shifted its BM focus towards accuracy vs range.

Lastly, Pace of launches needs to pick up. 1-2 launches a year isn’t going to cut it.

 

[HGV]

I’m talking about the load of SLV. Israel never built a stronger SLV because they had no need it for. Other countries will gladly launch their satellites. Iran doesn’t have that luxury. Till recently even Russia refused to launch our satellites.

We need to have our domestic SLVs for all lift categories (including for Mars, yes for Mars) because we have no true allies that will assist us in this area.

They have SLV that can launch up to 800kg and they only use up to 300-400kg of that for their most advanced spy sats. I would say that tells us something

Domestic SLVs for all lift categories may not be economical but in theory I agree. Right now the biggest objective is constellation of military/spy sats and 200kg payload to LEO does that job very well.

MOD is an agency so they don’t build anything. That’s like saying DOD builds weapons. They all outsource (contract out) to companies in Iranian industrial complex. And who do you think those companies are connected to? Considering that Simorgh first stage is a cluster of Shahab-3 engines then you can bet IRGC is involved with the stages and assembly.

Ever wonder why ISA tech lags so much? Anything given to ISA can be counted on being leaked to every intelligence agency in the West. That is what comes with having a government space program for the public good, unlike the nuclear program it’s not going to be extremely vetted and restrictive to enter.

That is the issue right now, ISA relies on the similar dual use tech as Iran’s BM programs, a program our enemies would love nothing more to get data on. Did you know that during JCPOA John Kerry told Zarif one of the demands for the US was to hand over flight data on its BMs and that eventually they wanted to have Western observers at future missile tests. Literally laughable how dumb they thought Iran was.

But hey they tricked Putin into thinking that the missile interceptors they put into Poland 10 years ago were made to counter “Iranian ballsitic missile threat” to Europe and had nothing to do with Russia.

Zoljanah SLV first/second stage engines are not based on any known Iranian missile

First successful flight was May 2017.

Prove it

Iran is not in the same league as North Korea. Please don’t compare our country and the size of our economy to a hermit kingdom with 50B GDP. Our aspirations should be on the level of India, raise them not lower them into the dirt.

Iran doesn’t have the luxury of Israel, Turkey, or SK that can have a company like SpaceX or Rocketlab or a friendly ally/government launch its satellites on its behalf without the headache and costs of maintaining launch facilities.

Iran’s geopolitical reality means it needs to build everything itself when it comes to critical technologies. That’s the nature of the beast when you decided to challenge the world order lead by Anglo Saxon Imprealist and the only non aligned countries with power are Russia and China who hardly want to assist you grow stronger.

Given the situation, There is zero sense of urgency on a matter that is of great importance for humanity for next 250 years.

Don't be arrogant, North Korea has nuclear tipped ICBMs and SLBMs and their space program is ahead of Iran's. We should innately be ahead of NK because our GDP is much bigger but we should aspire to be on the same level as India ... ? Let's not compare GDPs (your logic), but their space agency was formed in the 1960s, the Iranian Space Agency was formed in 2004.

South Korea also is nowhere near Iran in engine technology that is why they have struggled. Up until recently they didn’t have a true BM program and still don’t when it comes to a long range program. Look it up. Iran is actually ahead of SK in this field which is one of the most critical areas of space launch (ie actual vehicle power management).

South Korea is far ahead of Iran in that respect

Let’s clear something up, you are the one who first labeled the civilian program a failure, not me. I said the civilian program is a joke and neither program is impressive. Then you said IRGC program is not a failure (Again your initiation) and thus I responded and said that Entity’s (IRGC) failure for their involvement in the ISA program and that they deserve their share of blame for that programs complete underperformance as Simorgh was ultimately developed using IRGC engineers, tech, and assistance. I didn’t say IRGC is the complete reason for the ISA either.

Here it looks like you said the IRGC program "is a failure"

As for the IRGC program, it is not impressive. They have quite a few tools and technologies that they could use to assemble more poweful SLVs and they have had these for a while.

Ex. Qaem (the real Qaem not this imitation) was a design/prototype that supposedly was mastered way back in 2010 by Tehrani Moghdam and his team. Shortly later he mysteriously died in the infamous explosion and Iran shifted its BM focus towards accuracy vs range.

Lastly, Pace of launches needs to pick up. 1-2 launches a year isn’t going to cut it.

2020 first space launch to potential Qaem-110 launch in c. 2025 is impressive, it is what ISA's program was supposed to be. Iran needs a few more years to work on satellite imaging resolution. 200kg launch capability to LEO with 1m or better sat imaging resolution by c. 2025/26 is the barometer I will personally use to measure success or failure. By then the ISA should allegedly be ready to launch the Sarir but we all know about their deadlines (pointless anyway until Chabahar space centre is ready for that which will again apparently be in March 2025)

 

[TheImmortal]

They have SLV that can launch up to 800kg and they only use up to 300-400kg of that for their most advanced spy sats. I would say that tells us something

400KG = 1 Israeli spy satellite to LEO

One reason you don’t build bigger spy satellites is the destination is LEO. LEO satellites will fall out of orbit eventually once its thrusters run out of fuel to keep off setting earths gravitational pull. So you aren’t gonna build a heavy Sat for Leo (generally).

Iran needs heavy payloads (multi Sat to LEO). Building future SLVs for single payload is a bit pointless. Israeli companies use other SLVs. Shavit is mostly used by Israeli government hence single playloads are sufficient.

Iran (based on what officials have said) have a lot of demand from their private sector to launch sats.

So a SLV that does 200-300kg to LEO is simply not sufficient for Iran’s demand. It’s cheaper to ride share.

Domestic SLVs for all lift categories may not be economical but in theory I agree. Right now the biggest objective is constellation of military/spy sats and 200kg payload to LEO does that job very well.

We are same page if we agree on this point.

Zoljanah SLV first/second stage engines are not based on any known Iranian missile

Incorrect

It’s a Sejill derivative family based SLV

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541038288080965634

https://twitter.com/x/status/1356345225862672386

Prove it

MISSION OVERVIEW​

Launch Date:25 May 2017
Launch Site:Launch Complex 1
Launch Time:04:20 UTC (16:20 NZT)

It's a Test was the first launch of Rocket Lab's Electron launch vehicle. When Electron lifted-off at 16:20 NZT from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 on the Mahia Peninsula in New Zealand, it became the first orbital-class rocket launched from from a private launch site.
The mission saw Electron complete a perfect first stage burn, stage separation, second stage ignition and fairing separation. Electron successfully reached space and put Rocket Lab in an incredibly strong position to accelerate into commercial operations.

It's a Test | Rocket Lab

It's a Test was the first launch of Rocket Lab's Electron launch vehicle. When Electron lifted-off at 16:20 NZT from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 on the Mahia Peninsula in New Zealand, it became the first orbital-class rocket launched from from a private launch site.

www.rocketlabusa.com

I actually know about this company hence why I used them as an example. You likely quoted the date of the first commercial launch with a customer payload which was Jan 2018.

Don't be arrogant, North Korea has nuclear tipped ICBMs and SLBMs and their space program is ahead of Iran's.

So the end all be all of pinnacle development is to build an ICBM? You do realize Iran could build a ICBM right this second using just unveiled SLV + BM tech?

Many reasons Iran doesn’t build ICBMs but the big two 1) geo political reasons 2) no nuclear weapons

Building an ICBM just to fire a conventional payload is a waste of money unless it can carry 5000kg+ multi warheads to justify the cost and time to build these missiles.

As for SLBM, Iran doesn’t build SLBM because its biggest submarines arent appropriate for it. Look at the average size of a SLBM firing submarine.

Iran already built SLCM which is arguably more challenging due to ignition without a booster and limited fuel space where as SLBM can ignite the engine underwater (I believe).

their space program is ahead of Iran's.

Based on what metric? NK is going the Israeli route of converting an ICBM into a SLV for mostly military payload reasons.

We should innately be ahead of NK because our GDP is much bigger

Well NK spends nearly its entire budget on military aspirations while its people starve and die.

Meanwhile Iran spends $10B+ a year on subsidies just so its population can live more comfortably.

The priorities are in different areas. Irans military budget is 15-20B (declared). North Koreas is likely just as much maybe more (hidden).

but we should aspire to be on the same level as India ... ? Let's not compare GDPs (your logic), but their space agency was formed in the 1960s, the Iranian Space Agency was formed in 2004.

I didn’t say Iran needs to be where India is TODAY. I said our aspirations (future goals) should be similar. India wants a manned space program and moon exploration and to be an interplanetary space power in 22nd century. There is no reason why Iran (one of the oldest countries in the world) should not also be there on this list. Main reason for Iran’s current economy (corruption + sanctions) thus theoretical potential is there to be a G-10
Country at the minimum, maybe even closer to G-5 if hitting on all cyclinders.

There is plenty of time to catch up for space, but that requires a serious investment and forward looking vision which this government strategically does not have when it comes to the future of space.

Space will be like when Europe discovered the other side of the earth. It will be a race for power and minerals that can make a country extremely extremely rich or well supplied with valuable resources.

Imagine having the equivalent of 1000 Pars gas fields (in certain minerals). That is what moon mining and asteroid mining will bring. Seems far fetched but there are private companies already in this sector developing the technologies. Moon is 1st phase.

South Korea is far ahead of Iran in that respect

If you think that South Korea is ahead of Iran in ballistic missile, cruise missile engine tech then there is nothing I can say to convince you.

South Korea’s best BM can go 800KM and it’s best CM 1500KM. It’s not even close. That’s not counting the prototype engines being tested at Sharud.

View attachment 968285

Here it looks like you said the IRGC program "is a failure"

I type on a phone very quickly so if it came off that way you are right.

What I meant to say is it’s a failure that IRGC could have built Qaem-100 years ago. Its literally first stage is a Qiam. Zoljanah is more advanced than Qaem-100 to put it in perspective.

So IRGC-SF should have formed years ago likely as soon as Rouhani started reducing ISA launches. That is the failure.

2020 first space launch to potential Qaem-110 launch in c. 2025 is impressive, it is what ISA's program was supposed to be.

Qaem is not that impressive considering the latest missiles (K-4 and Fattah) can go much further if probably modified. I’m too lazy to look up what the difference between 110 and 105 is.

Iran needs a few more years to work on satellite imaging resolution.

Well they have had since 2009 to build foldable panel tech and imaging tech. Just because they couldn’t launch them doesn’t mean they can’t improve them in the lab.

200kg launch capability to LEO with 1m or better sat imaging resolution by c. 2025/26 is the barometer I will personally use to measure success or failure.

Anyone can order as low 15 cm satellite imaging from a commercial Sat provider. There are space companies that are putting constellations into space right at this moment to allow picture of anywhere on the globe is a little as 15-30 mins.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1720652759521714291

Look this guy order 50 cm to view Gaza and you can see the Israeli armored column dirt trail.

I guess this is why there is no sense of urgency.

So by 2026, 1 meter is not even close to impressive even for Iran. Especially considering future Khayaam sats Iran is launching with Russia.

By then the ISA should allegedly be ready to launch the Sarir but we all know about their deadlines (pointless anyway until Chabahar space centre is ready for that which will again apparently be in March 2025)

Until they build Bahman engines (cryogenic engines) that program isn’t going to be what you want it to be.

 

[HGV]

400KG = 1 Israeli spy satellite to LEO

One reason you don’t build bigger spy satellites is the destination is LEO. LEO satellites will fall out of orbit eventually once its thrusters run out of fuel to keep off setting earths gravitational pull. So you aren’t gonna build a heavy Sat for Leo (generally).

Iran needs heavy payloads (multi Sat to LEO). Building future SLVs for single payload is a bit pointless. Israeli companies use other SLVs. Shavit is mostly used by Israeli government hence single playloads are sufficient.

Iran (based on what officials have said) have a lot of demand from their private sector to launch sats.

So a SLV that does 200-300kg to LEO is simply not sufficient for Iran’s demand. It’s cheaper to ride share.

IRGC has military needs, it's not a private for-profit program. Current Iranian military need is constellation of spy sats with sufficient imaging resolution to be of military utility without having to rely on third parties, and Qaem-105 will hopefully help Iran to achieve this (by launching 10x 1m resolution micro-sats at once). That's an important milestone but not the end goal.

Incorrect

It’s a Sejill derivative family based SLV

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541038288080965634

https://twitter.com/x/status/1356345225862672386

I don't think he claims the engines are Sejjil engines, just that they share staging tech

btw this is his view on Iran's needs for SLV payload:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541038822133309440

It's a Test | Rocket Lab

It's a Test was the first launch of Rocket Lab's Electron launch vehicle. When Electron lifted-off at 16:20 NZT from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 on the Mahia Peninsula in New Zealand, it became the first orbital-class rocket launched from from a private launch site.

www.rocketlabusa.com

I actually know about this company hence why I used them as an example. You likely quoted the date of the first commercial launch with a customer payload which was Jan 2018.

I thought I spoke about an orbital launch, this was a test launch that did not place anything into orbit. but 2017 or 2018 doesn't matter, point is it took them a long time to reach that level and you are being overly harsh on IRGC for not reaching that level in 3 years (even though they are potentially 1-2 years away)

So the end all be all of pinnacle development is to build an ICBM? You do realize Iran could build a ICBM right this second using just unveiled SLV + BM tech?

Iran can put together a ICBM on paper with range >5500km but can we build something like Hwasong-18 ? Highly doubt it, we don't have engines of that class/power

Based on what metric? NK is going the Israeli route of converting an ICBM into a SLV for mostly military payload reasons.

Based on proven ability to place a heavier payload into orbit. North Korea put a 100kg satellite into orbit in 2012 and 200kg payload into orbit in 2016. Biggest payload Iran put into orbit was c. 50kg, so they are ahead of us on that metric

I didn’t say Iran needs to be where India is TODAY. I said our aspirations (future goals) should be similar. India wants a manned space program and moon exploration and to be an interplanetary space power in 22nd century. There is no reason why Iran (one of the oldest countries in the world) should not also be there on this list. Main reason for Iran’s current economy (corruption + sanctions) thus theoretical potential is there to be a G-10
Country at the minimum, maybe even closer to G-5 if hitting on all cyclinders.

There is plenty of time to catch up for space, but that requires a serious investment and forward looking vision which this government strategically does not have when it comes to the future of space.

I also would like Iran to be a leader in space but there are many reasons why we are closer to South Korea and North Korea than India beyond just GDP

Iraq and Egypt are old countries as well but I don't see them going to Mars any time soon

Space will be like when Europe discovered the other side of the earth. It will be a race for power and minerals that can make a country extremely extremely rich or well supplied with valuable resources.

Imagine having the equivalent of 1000 Pars gas fields (in certain minerals). That is what moon mining and asteroid mining will bring. Seems far fetched but there are private companies already in this sector developing the technologies. Moon is 1st phase.

It's very speculative, I am not sure the risk / reward is there yet. Nonetheless, I agree it is an area Iran cannot afford to fall back on but we cannot go from Qased to Mars in 5 years, there are lots of incremental objectives and milestones along the way

If you think that South Korea is ahead of Iran in ballistic missile, cruise missile engine tech then there is nothing I can say to convince you.

South Korea’s best BM can go 800KM and it’s best CM 1500KM. It’s not even close. That’s not counting the prototype engines being tested at Sharud.

That isn't what I said. I was referring to their SLV engines that use LOX

I type on a phone very quickly so if it came off that way you are right.

What I meant to say is it’s a failure that IRGC could have built Qaem-100 years ago. Its literally first stage is a Qiam. Zoljanah is more advanced than Qaem-100 to put it in perspective.

So IRGC-SF should have formed years ago likely as soon as Rouhani started reducing ISA launches. That is the failure.

Qaem is not that impressive considering the latest missiles (K-4 and Fattah) can go much further if probably modified. I’m too lazy to look up what the difference between 110 and 105 is.

First stage of Qaem-100 is NOT a Qiam, I don't know where you get that from. Qiam is liquid fuel SCUD variant, Qaem-100 first stage is the solid fuel Raafe. Totally different. Zoljanah is definitely not more advanced than Qaem-100, it's the opposite.

4x clustered K-4 engines would be a nice improvement over the Simorgh's clustered SCUD engines and this is available now before Bahman engines are ready (allegedly in 2032, which is maybe 2052 if we adjust for Iranian announcement inflation)

Anyone can order as low 15 cm satellite imaging from a commercial Sat provider. There are space companies that are putting constellations into space right at this moment to allow picture of anywhere on the globe is a little as 15-30 mins.

Look this guy order 50 cm to view Gaza and you can see the Israeli armored column dirt trail.

I guess this is why there is no sense of urgency.

So by 2026, 1 meter is not even close to impressive even for Iran. Especially considering future Khayaam sats Iran is launching with Russia.

In Operation Martyr Soleimani we learned the US was monitoring Iran's purchases of Western satellite imagery and used that knowledge to move assets. Iran understandably does not want to be reliant on Western sat imaging providers who only provide those images with a delay of up to a few days; independent real time tracking is of huge military importance for Iran (e.g. to guide ASBMs etc).

1m is important because it is generally regarded as the threshold for resolution that provides military utility. We are currently at 4-5m resolution so let's get to 1m then we can talk about 50cm or better

 

[TheImmortal]

First stage of Qaem-100 is NOT a Qiam, I don't know where you get that from. Qiam is liquid fuel SCUD variant, Qaem-100 first stage is the solid fuel Raafe. Totally different. Zoljanah is definitely not more advanced than Qaem-100, it's the opposite.

Listen and learn. The first Qaem used a liquid first stage Qiam/Ghadr this was to save cost. And listen to the interview you will realize this program wasn’t started in 2020 like you allude, but years before and was unveiled with a public test.

we don't have engines of that class/power

Deep in the Desert, Iran Quietly Advances Missile Technology (Published 2018)

Iran’s long-range missile program was thought to be dormant, but researchers see evidence that it may have resumed.

www.nytimes.com

We do just not publicly unveiled. Our missile engines is Iran’s “black projects”.

Based on proven ability to place a heavier payload into orbit. North Korea put a 100kg satellite into orbit in 2012 and 200kg payload into orbit in 2016. Biggest payload Iran put into orbit was c. 50kg, so they are ahead of us on that metric

Yet both recent launches failed.

Those launches you cite were on now defunct (terrible track record) Unha-3/Unha family derivatives missiles.

Under its new (likely Russian assisted) family of missiles, it has yet to match Iran in space success. Either satellite tech or working SLV.

 

[jauk]

400KG = 1 Israeli spy satellite to LEO

One reason you don’t build bigger spy satellites is the destination is LEO. LEO satellites will fall out of orbit eventually once its thrusters run out of fuel to keep off setting earths gravitational pull. So you aren’t gonna build a heavy Sat for Leo (generally).

Iran needs heavy payloads (multi Sat to LEO). Building future SLVs for single payload is a bit pointless. Israeli companies use other SLVs. Shavit is mostly used by Israeli government hence single playloads are sufficient.

Iran (based on what officials have said) have a lot of demand from their private sector to launch sats.

So a SLV that does 200-300kg to LEO is simply not sufficient for Iran’s demand. It’s cheaper to ride share.



We are same page if we agree on this point.



Incorrect

It’s a Sejill derivative family based SLV

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541038288080965634

https://twitter.com/x/status/1356345225862672386

It's a Test | Rocket Lab

It's a Test was the first launch of Rocket Lab's Electron launch vehicle. When Electron lifted-off at 16:20 NZT from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 on the Mahia Peninsula in New Zealand, it became the first orbital-class rocket launched from from a private launch site.

www.rocketlabusa.com

I actually know about this company hence why I used them as an example. You likely quoted the date of the first commercial launch with a customer payload which was Jan 2018.



So the end all be all of pinnacle development is to build an ICBM? You do realize Iran could build a ICBM right this second using just unveiled SLV + BM tech?

View attachment 968294

Many reasons Iran doesn’t build ICBMs but the big two 1) geo political reasons 2) no nuclear weapons

Building an ICBM just to fire a conventional payload is a waste of money unless it can carry 5000kg+ multi warheads to justify the cost and time to build these missiles.

As for SLBM, Iran doesn’t build SLBM because its biggest submarines arent appropriate for it. Look at the average size of a SLBM firing submarine.

Iran already built SLCM which is arguably more challenging due to ignition without a booster and limited fuel space where as SLBM can ignite the engine underwater (I believe).



Based on what metric? NK is going the Israeli route of converting an ICBM into a SLV for mostly military payload reasons.



Well NK spends nearly its entire budget on military aspirations while its people starve and die.

Meanwhile Iran spends $10B+ a year on subsidies just so its population can live more comfortably.

The priorities are in different areas. Irans military budget is 15-20B (declared). North Koreas is likely just as much maybe more (hidden).



I didn’t say Iran needs to be where India is TODAY. I said our aspirations (future goals) should be similar. India wants a manned space program and moon exploration and to be an interplanetary space power in 22nd century. There is no reason why Iran (one of the oldest countries in the world) should not also be there on this list. Main reason for Iran’s current economy (corruption + sanctions) thus theoretical potential is there to be a G-10
Country at the minimum, maybe even closer to G-5 if hitting on all cyclinders.

There is plenty of time to catch up for space, but that requires a serious investment and forward looking vision which this government strategically does not have when it comes to the future of space.

Space will be like when Europe discovered the other side of the earth. It will be a race for power and minerals that can make a country extremely extremely rich or well supplied with valuable resources.

Imagine having the equivalent of 1000 Pars gas fields (in certain minerals). That is what moon mining and asteroid mining will bring. Seems far fetched but there are private companies already in this sector developing the technologies. Moon is 1st phase.


If you think that South Korea is ahead of Iran in ballistic missile, cruise missile engine tech then there is nothing I can say to convince you.

South Korea’s best BM can go 800KM and it’s best CM 1500KM. It’s not even close. That’s not counting the prototype engines being tested at Sharud.


I type on a phone very quickly so if it came off that way you are right.

What I meant to say is it’s a failure that IRGC could have built Qaem-100 years ago. Its literally first stage is a Qiam. Zoljanah is more advanced than Qaem-100 to put it in perspective.

So IRGC-SF should have formed years ago likely as soon as Rouhani started reducing ISA launches. That is the failure.


Qaem is not that impressive considering the latest missiles (K-4 and Fattah) can go much further if probably modified. I’m too lazy to look up what the difference between 110 and 105 is.



Well they have had since 2009 to build foldable panel tech and imaging tech. Just because they couldn’t launch them doesn’t mean they can’t improve them in the lab.



Anyone can order as low 15 cm satellite imaging from a commercial Sat provider. There are space companies that are putting constellations into space right at this moment to allow picture of anywhere on the globe is a little as 15-30 mins.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1720652759521714291

Look this guy order 50 cm to view Gaza and you can see the Israeli armored column dirt trail.

I guess this is why there is no sense of urgency.

So by 2026, 1 meter is not even close to impressive even for Iran. Especially considering future Khayaam sats Iran is launching with Russia.



Until they build Bahman engines (cryogenic engines) that program isn’t going to be what you want it to be.

Iran is punching far above its weight militarily and scientifically. Iran must and will exceed India in space. Only once it can start managing effectively. India’s secret sauce is management. They seem to excel in that given how many fortune companies they lead.

 

[HGV]

Listen and learn. The first Qaem used a liquid first stage Qiam/Ghadr this was to save cost. And listen to the interview you will realize this program wasn’t started in 2020 like you allude, but years before and was unveiled with a public test.

He's talking about Qased not Qaem, you are confusing the two

Deep in the Desert, Iran Quietly Advances Missile Technology (Published 2018)

Iran’s long-range missile program was thought to be dormant, but researchers see evidence that it may have resumed.

www.nytimes.com

We do just not publicly unveiled. Our missile engines is Iran’s “black projects”.

"The researchers say Shahrud’s 2017 test used a stand estimated to be 370 tons, suggesting the engine powered between 62 and 93 tons of thrust" --> this fits Zoljanah's first/second stage engines well

I think there was another version of this article with a table showing the estimated thrust of each engine likely to be tested on each test stand, the biggest one was much more powerful than that but unclear if it had been used yet

Yet both recent launches failed.

Those launches you cite were on now defunct (terrible track record) Unha-3/Unha family derivatives missiles.

Under its new (likely Russian assisted) family of missiles, it has yet to match Iran in space success. Either satellite tech or working SLV.

Recent launches don't affect past achievements. Fact remains North Korea's space program has achieved more than Iran's has in terms of mass of payload placed into orbit. That is not debatable

 

[TheImmortal]

He's talking about Qased not Qaem, you are confusing the two

Correct, Qased was 1st Qaem with a liquid first stage as a prototype test.

"The researchers say Shahrud’s 2017 test used a stand estimated to be 370 tons, suggesting the engine powered between 62 and 93 tons of thrust" --> this fits Zoljanah's first/second stage engines well

I think there was another version of this article with a table showing the estimated thrust of each engine likely to be tested on each test stand, the biggest one was much more powerful than that but unclear if it had been used yet

There are also large diameter engines Iran is testing we have not yet seen. Nearly all of Iran’s missiles and SLV have similar 1st stage diameter ratios.

I wouldn’t expect civilian OSINT to be able to pick up advancements. 2015 North Korea was an absolute failure of a country in terms of buildings long range missiles. Their Unha 2 and 3 were failed designs that could never be reliably counted on. Then boom by 2019 ICBM level advancement.

Unprecedented in history of mankind actually, which is why I think they had foreign assistance (namely ToT from Russia) the advancement jump was so great going from old scud liquid engines to massive diameter solid fuel engines. Makes zero sense.

Recent launches don't affect past achievements. Fact remains North Korea's space program has achieved more than Iran's has in terms of mass of payload placed into orbit. That is not debatable

By that logic every country that is a superpower now is a failure since iran was a superpower 3000 years ago.

That missile that lifted those satellites is mothballed. Their new designed missiles have failed at insertion or just exploded/diverted after take off.

Thus that capability is not there presently. So yes you are correct that NK beat Iran first. But who cares? It doesn’t matter how you start it’s how you finish and the race is a long (multi century) one.

The issue is I am seeing zero sense of urgency to fix the space program. It’s going on a snails pace. If Iran was a private company with tiny amount of funds and a bunch of red tape to jump thru then that makes sense. But it is a nation state that has strong engineering base and enough funds to be able to speed up the program.

Thus it’s a political decision. Looking at space in the lens of only military intelligence gathering is such a mistake. It would be like building navy ships in the 1400’s only for war with neighboring countries rather than to explore the world.

The countries that became empires were the ones that had the capability to harvest the new world resources.

Iran cannot rely on its petro and natural gas reserves for the rest of time to power its country and its economy. Hell maybe not even for 50 years depending on how fast fusion technology commercializes alongside wind, solar, and hydrogen tech.

There is a reason Saudi Arabia is desperately and obsessively pivoting at this point. I predicted it years back, if they stayed the course they would be a shell of their former self in 50 years when the world no longer needed as much oil or if it’s outright banned for use in major developed countries due to global warming.

 

[jauk]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1723376252914966655

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1723926364594557303

 

[K210]

Iran should attempt another Ghaem-100 launch

 

[SOHEIL]

 

[Mehdipersian]

Unknown Iranian satellites Mobin 1 and Mobin 2 are in space!!!

The IRGC has access to 5 satellites in space:

Noor 3 and 2 satellites

Khayyam's satellite

Unknown satellites of Mobin 1 and 2