Iranian Protests

[Shapur Zol Aktaf]

Here is one of those liberal Irani women on bill Maher's show. She makes it sound like change is inevitable in Iran but only time will tell.

this masmasi poopinejad, a terrorist who uses hijab issue to start riots. If hijab issue is solved she will die of poverty and isolation.

 

[TruthSeeker]

IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, OCTOBER 10​

Oct 10, 2022 - Press ISW

Download the PDF

Iran Crisis Update, October 10
Nicholas Carl, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Dana Alexander Gray and Frederick W. Kagan
October 10, 5:00 PM ET ​

The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
To receive Iran Crisis Updates via email, please subscribe here.
The ongoing, anti-regime protests could interact with and feed off of preexisting insurgencies in Iran. There are at least three active but low-level insurgencies in Iran’s northwestern, southwestern, and southeastern border regions. Iranian Arab, Baloch, and Kurdish militant groups have leveraged economic and political frustrations among marginalized minorities in Iran to fuel these groups’ anti-regime agendas for decades. These groups, which include the Kurdistan Free Life Party and Jaish al Adl, have historically conducted attacks into Iran and clashed with state security services regularly.
The greatest violence in the current protest movement has been in northwestern Kurdistan Province and southeastern Sistan and Baluchistan Province partly because insurgent groups operate in these areas.[1] These groups are likely trying to coopt and stoke the unrest to fight the regime. State security services are using greater force in these areas as well.
Demonstrations in the Iranian heartland may already be approaching the threshold identified in US military doctrine for a “latent and incipient” insurgency. CTP has not yet observed clear indicators that the protest movement has crossed the threshold and is not prepared to forecast that it will. American counter-insurgency doctrine, using a modified version of the Maoist insurgency framework, defines the lowest level of insurgency as follows:
“The first phase is latent and incipient. During this phase, activities include the emergence of insurgent leadership, creation of initial organizational infrastructure, training, acquisition of resources, and political actions, such as organizing protests. A group that eventually becomes members of an insurgency may simply be a legitimate political group at this stage. Governmental actions and changes in society can transform political groups into insurgencies." [2]
Protestor organizations are understandably cautious about leaving observable traces in the open source, making it impossible to gauge their extent, capabilities, or intentions at this time. But the appearance of nascent protestor organizations like the Neighborhood Youth of Tehran suggesting that they can do more than simply generate protests—specifically preventing regime security forces from entering certain areas of Tehran and other cities—could indicate an inflection in their capabilities or intentions.[3] The slogans and chants calling for the overthrow of the regime, particularly those saying that this is not a protest but a revolution, are another possible indicator.[4]
Evaluating the movement of a protest movement along insurgency phases derived from Maoist theory is problematic, to be sure. Maoist theory and US counter-insurgency doctrine assumes the existence of a group intending to overthrow a government before large demonstrations begin and may not adequately cover the case of a protest movement that transforms over time into an insurgency.
The Syrian civil war, however, followed a similar path to the one Iranian protest may be on—peaceful protests were met by violent oppression that fractured the security forces. Security force defectors joining the protests helped organize them and prepare them to defend themselves against increasing regime violence. Limited indications of Iranian security force defections are emerging, although some Iranian security forces have joined protestors in previous protest waves without turning them into organized insurgencies. The risk to the Iranian regime is there, however, if the current protest wave interacts with Iran’s long-standing insurgencies and the regime’s brutal response in ways that propel it along the insurgency spectrum.
Key Takeaways

• Ongoing, anti-regime protests could interact with and feed off of preexisting insurgencies in Iran in ways that could prolong, reinvigorate, and exacerbate the unrest.
• Iranian security forces have launched a brutal crackdown on protestors in Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province.
• Thousands of oil workers reportedly participated in strikes and anti-regime protests on October 10, which could pose a significant threat to the regime’s oil production if prolonged.
• Protest activity will likely increase in size and scale on October 12.
• Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei adopted a conciliatory tone toward protesters on October 10, breaking with the pattern of regime senior leader statements since Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s speech on October 3.

Supreme Leader Succession
There was nothing significant to report today.
Anti-Regime Protests
Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 16 cities in 11 different provinces on October 10. Iranian security forces are using increasingly violent and lethal means to suppress protests, particularly in Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province. CTP assesses with high and medium confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

• Asalouyeh, Bushehr Province
• Esfahan City, Esfahan Province
• Karzin, Fars Province
• Marvdast, Fars Province
• Shiraz, Fars Province
• Kermanshah City, Kermanshah Province
• Abadan, Khuzestan Province
• Dehgolan, Kurdistan Province
• Saghghez, Kurdistan Province
• Sanandaj, Kudistan Province (significant violence reported)
• Arak, Markazi Province
• Qazvin City, Qazvin Province
• Tehran City, Tehran Province
• Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province

CTP assesses with low confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

• Baneh, Kurdistan Province
• Ramsar, Mazandaran Province

Iranian security forces violently and significantly escalated against anti-regime protesters in Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province. Iranian security personnel fired live ammunition and teargas indiscriminately at protesters and into people’s homes on October 9 and 10.[5] A Kurdish human rights outlet reported that Basij members surrounded and enclosed residents in several local neighborhoods, preventing them from leaving, and fired teargas at residents chanting anti-regime slogans from their homes on October 10.[6] Other human rights organizations reported that security forces have killed multiple several Sanandaj residents, including a seven-year-old child.[7] Some social media users are comparing the regime’s brutal protest crackdown in Sanandaj to a war zone.[8]
A Kurdish human rights organization based in Europe reported that some Kermanshah Provincial Law Enforcement Command members assigned to suppress unrest in Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province are refusing to participate in the ongoing crackdown.[9] CTP cannot verify these claims.
Oil workers participated in strikes and anti-regime protests in Bushehr and Khuzestan Provinces on October 10, threatening the regime’s oil production. Over 1,000 petrochemical workers in Asalouyeh, Bushehr Province participated in anti-regime solidarity strikes and protests.[10] Asalouyeh workers reportedly blocked highways, set fire to some facilities at the petrochemical plant, and chanted revolutionary slogans, including “this is the year of blood, Khamenei will be overthrown.”[11] Oil Refinery workers in Abadan, Khuzestan Province similarly participated in strikes and anti-regime protests.[12] The Council of Oil Contract Workers alleged that 4,000 oil workers participated in strikes on October 10, including several other oil refineries along the Persian Gulf.[13] The council called for further protests and strikes throughout Iran, urging protesters to “prepare for nationwide and back-breaking strikes.”[14]
Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei adopted a conciliatory tone toward protesters on October 10. Ejei called for engaging protesters in dialogue and discussing reform, diverging from other senior political and security officials who have struck a harder line toward protesters in recent days.[15] It is unclear whether Ejei’s comments signify a shift in regime messaging in response to the growing oil worker strikes or whether Ejei is diverging from the regime talking points. President Ebrahim Raisi briefly articulated a similar position on September 28 but has adopted a more aggressive stance since then.[16] CTP continues to monitor the situation and will develop this assessment in the coming days.
Demonstrations will likely increase in scale and size on October 12. Anti-regime group The Neighborhood Youth of Tehran published a statement calling for protests on this date and provided protestors with guidance on how deter and blunt Iranian security forces.[17]
Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments
There was nothing significant to report today.

---

[1] https://www.criticalthreats.org/ana...ober-8#_ednf7b70e1ec197916a0d7a7ec6a45bfbfe15
[2] https://armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pubs/DR_a/pdf/web/fm3_24.pdf
[3]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1579466569016410120

[4]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578437042396020737

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578746500930187265

https://twitter.com/x/status/1576313764344832000

[5]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1579546065933840385

[6]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1579538480006574081

[7] https://twitter.com/HengawO/status/1579540801583222786; https://twitter.com/HengawO/status/1579551368909819904
[8] https://twitter.com/bai_mina/status/1579525545897136129, https://twitter.com/HengawO/status/1579559921267642369, https://twitter.com/AnymousIran/status/1579533489309118464; https://iranwire.com/en/politics/108472-iran-protests-oil-workers-strike-and-say-khamenei-is-done/
[9] https://twitter.com/Hengaw_English/status/1579471482853687299
[10] https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-protests-oil-workers-unrest/32073170.html#0_8_10089_9356_3158_243917036
[11] https://twitter.com/KhosroKalbasi/status/1579458021646045184; https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-protests-oil-workers-unrest/32073170.html#0_8_10089_9356_3158_243917036
[12] https://twitter.com/pouriazeraati/status/1579424209285312514
[13] https://iranwire.com/en/politics/108472-iran-protests-oil-workers-strike-and-say-khamenei-is-done/
[14] https://twitter.com/IranIntlbrk/status/1579433845278920704
[15] https://www.hamshahrionline dot ir/news/711242/
[16] http://www.president dot ir/fa/139919/
[17] https://twitter.com/javanane_t/status/1579466569016410120

 

[FuturePAF]

There is a big protest planned (potentially filling up the 600,000 seat YouTube arena or Staples center in LA) soon. Possibly something like a 12 hour charity concert. How much effect is the is likely to have in support of the protests?

If I had to guess, it would probably be in 14 days to coincide with 40th day after the death of Mahsa Amini.

 

[shadihassan28]

I was reading an article about Niloofar Hamedi how she got arrested I honestly didn’t know who she was before I read the article, I guess she took photos of Mahsa Amini's parents in the hospital. My question is Iranian officials making situation worse by arresting a journalist because she took some photos of a girl’s parents grieving, and than sending this journalist to a prison currently without charges, to be made up at later time, these officials are putting gas to the fire. I’m sure this woman was doing her job reporting on a human interest piece, I’m sure she never thought it would become as big as this but every time they do things like this it makes them seem like they’re trying to hide something

 

[Black.Mamba]

the only logical explanation is that Iranian government is very radically gay otherwise you can’t hate women this much

 

[Mirzah]

These are the telltale signs of a regime breathing its last. A rigid regime like this is not meant to last.

funny how Israeli regime has lasted so long using the same suppression tactics, big win for them if the IR government falls.

 

[shadihassan28]

funny how Israeli regime has lasted so long using the same suppression tactics, big win for them if the IR government falls.

Totally agree they use the same tactics if not worse on Palestinians, difference is they have America to absolve them of any crimes, is hypocritical of course that’s why I don’t care for when any government official gets involved, bad is bad you can’t pretend it’s not bad because your buddies with these regimes ie Saudi Arabia, Israel , Egypt honestly list goes on forever, tomorrow if Saudi Arabia becomes unacceptable because of opec cuts, but the day before they were buddy buddy is that right no, governments should all be called out

 

[lydian fall]

this masmasi poopinejad, a terrorist who uses hijab issue to start riots. If hijab issue is solved she will die of poverty and isolation.

She is like the Thaïs whore and with her torch she wants to burn sth

 

[TruthSeeker]

IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, OCTOBER 11​

Oct 11, 2022 - Press ISW
Download the PDF

Nicholas Carl, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Zachary Coles, and Frederick W. Kagan
October 11, 6:00 PM ET
The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). To receive Iran Crisis Updates via email, please subscribe here.​

Unconfirmed reports suggest that the Iranian regime is amassing military and security forces in Kurdistan Province to violently suppress protests and possibly also to conduct a ground operation into Iraqi Kurdistan.[1] Social media rumors reported on October 10 that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Law Enforcement Command (LEC) have transferred forces from Hamedan, Yazd, and elsewhere to Sanandaj, where the regime is conducting a brutal crackdown.[2] Anti-regime outlet IranWire and a UK-based Sky News journalist reported that the regime is concentrating forces in Kurdistan Province.[3]
CTP cannot verify these reports and advises caution when evaluating these reports in light of the many, often-conflicting, information operations being conducted by the regime and its opponents.
Violent clashes between protesters and state security services in Kurdistan Province occurred on October 10 and 11.[4] Social media observers described Sanandaj as a “war zone,” a description that coheres with available pictures and videos of the clashes.[5]
The regime may use forces concentrated in the border region to conduct a ground incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan against anti-regime Kurdish militant groups. Iranian political and security officials have repeatedly accused these groups of coopting and stoking the protests against the regime. Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi reiterated this accusation on October 11.[6] The IRGC conducted daily artillery, drone, and missile attacks against anti-regime Kurdish militant positions in Iraqi Kurdistan from September 26 to October 7.[7] A Telegram channel run by Iranian proxies in Iraq posted on October 11 that the IRGC is conducting a ground incursion but quickly deleted the post.[8]
The reports that the regime may conduct a ground incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan may be an Iranian information operation. An unidentified source told anti-regime outlet Iran International that the IRGC is conducting such an information operation aimed at anti-regime Kurdish militants in Iraqi Kurdistan possibly to scare them away from the border and disrupt their operations.
The concentration of security forces in Kurdistan Province could exacerbate Iranian security forces’ bandwidth issues—a key vulnerability in the regime’s internal security apparatus. The regime relies on a small number select, highly ideological units from the IRGC, Basij, and LEC to crack down on unrest and thus does not have enough manpower to cover the entire country.[9] The regime shuffles its forces to where they are needed most—typically the restive border regions—when protests erupt.[10]
Simultaneous protests in the border areas and major cities strain these forces—a vulnerability that protesters and other anti-regime groups may seek to exploit. Anti-regime, Persian-language social media accounts have called for protester solidarity with the demonstrators in Sanandaj and Zahedan.[11] Deadly clashes erupted between protesters and security forces in Zahedan on September 30.[12]
Unobserved indications that the security forces are experiencing bandwidth issues include:

• Reports of security forces transferring away from cities where there are ongoing protests
• Reports of the regime using the Artesh—its conventional military—and foreign proxies on a large-scale for protest suppression.

Anti-regime protests continued in at least 16 cities in 11 provinces on October 11 and could expand in the days ahead. English- and Persian-language social media accounts have called for protests across Iran on October 12 and 13.[13] Protesters have already demonstrated that they can coordinate large-scale demonstrations and may again succeed in doing so in the coming days.
Key Takeaways
Supreme Leader Succession
There was nothing significant to report today.
Anti-Regime Protests
Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 16 cities in 11 different provinces on October 11. Iranian security forces are continuing to use violent and lethal means to suppress protests, particularly in Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province. Anti-regime groups have called for demonstrations on October 12 and protest activity will likely increase in size and scale on this date. CTP assesses that protests occurred in the following locations on October 11:

• Borazjan, Bushehr Province
• Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province
• Esfahan City, Esfahan Province
• Najafabad, Esfahan Province (violence reported)
• Rasht, Gilan Province
• Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province
• Kermanshah, Kermanshah Province
• Abadan, Khuzestan Province
• Baneh, Kurdistan Province (violence reported)
• Divandarreh, Kurdistan Province
• Saghez, Kurdistan Province
• Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province (violence reported)
• Qom City, Qom Province
• Marlik, Tehran Province
• Tehran City, Tehran Province
• Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province

Iranian intelligence and security officers have been entering hospitals and surveilling pharmacies to identify and arrest injured protestors. CBS News reported that Iranian protestors injured in anti-regime demonstrations are avoiding seeking treatment at medical facilities for fear of being arrested by Iranian authorities, preferring home treatment to hospitalization [14] Security personnel have reportedly begun to station themselves in front of pharmacies in Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province to identify injured protestors avoiding visiting medical facilities.[15] Some social media users reported that pharmacies have limited medical supplies needed by injured protestors, including medical gauze, antibiotic serum, and lidocaine.[16] Iranian medical officials have issued several statements strongly condemning Iranian authorities’ hospital probes.[17]
Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi met with senior provincial officials in Kurdistan Province as the regime struggles to contain unrest in Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province.[18] Iranian security forces’ use of lethal force against protestors in Sanandaj has failed to curtail further demonstrations.[19] Footage circulating on social media allegedly captured security forces running away from protestors on October 11.[20] CTP cannot verify this footage. Vahidi warned Iranian youth against overthrowing the Islamic Republic—reflecting that the regime recognizes the revolutionary nature of these protests and the threat it may pose.[21]
President Ebrahim Raisi held a phone call with the family of a Basij member killed in protests in Tehran.[22] Raisi praised the Basij members’ sacrifice and service in the call. This phone call is especially tone deaf given that Raisi has expressed little to no sympathy for the protesters. Raisi is likely messaging internal regime audiences rather than the protesters. He likely seeks to reaffirm his commitment to the security establishment and its leaders, who will play a critical role in choosing the next supreme leader. He also likely sought to signal support for the low-level security personnel who are reportedly experiencing exhaustion and low morale.[23]
Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments
The Iraqi parliament plans to select a president during its upcoming October 13 session, and Iraqi nationalist and anti-corruption protesters may hold renewed anti-Iran demonstrations in response. Iraqi Parliament Speaker Mohamed al Halbousi announced during an October 11 parliamentary session that parliamentarians will reconvene for a session on October 13 to vote on a new Iraqi president.[24] Iraqi anti-corruption Tishreen movement protesters and supporters of Iraqi nationalist Shia cleric Moqtada al Sadr may play up anti-Iran sentiments—intensified by IRGC attacks into Iraqi Kurdistan and the Iranian regime‘s extreme mishandling of the protests—to prevent progress on government formation.

[1]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1579929763447459840

https://twitter.com/x/status/1579571797468778496

https://twitter.com/x/status/1579561797937664000

[2]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1579561797937664000

[3] https://iranwire.com/en/politics/108498-revolutionary-guards-deploy-forc...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1579852130487521281

[4] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-october-10
[5]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1579525545897136129

, https://twitter.com/HengawO/status/1579559921267642369, https://twitter.com/AnymousIran/status/1579533489309118464; https://iranwire.com/en/politics/108472-iran-protests-oil-workers-strike...
[6] http://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1401/07/19/2786502
[7] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-october-8
[8] Data can be provided upon request.
[9] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/whatever-it-takes-to-end-it-ira...
[10] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/whatever-it-takes-to-end-it-ira...
[11] https://twitter.com/javanane_t/status/1579769324952522752, https://twitter.com/javanane_t/status/1579828785683521542
[12] https://www.irna dot ir/news/84900671/حمله-تروریستی-در-زاهدان ; www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1401/07/08/2781751
[13] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1579871367423725572; https://twitter.com/javanane_t/status/1579828785683521542; https://twitter.com/javanane_t/status/1579769324952522752
[14] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-news-protests-deaths-people-shot-afrai...
[15] https://twitter.com/IranIntlbrk/status/1579398272174604288
[16] https://twitter.com/SasanAmjadi/status/1579376369804644352
[17] https://twitter.com/ManotoNews/status/1579391125986869249
[18] http://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1401/07/19/2786502
[19] https://twitter.com/HengawO/status/1579883663919316992
[20] https://twitter.com/SamRasoulpour/status/1579773924195577857
[21] https://www.jahannews dot com/news/815131/%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B2%DB%8C-%D8%AD%DA%A9%D9%88%D9%85%D8%AA-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%DB%8C%DA%A9-%D9%81%DA%A9%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%84%D9%87%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%87-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA
[22] http://www.president dot ir/fa/140076
[23] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-september-28
[24] https://iq dot parliament dot iq/blog/2022/10/11/%d9%85%d8%ac%d9%84%d8%b3-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%a8-%d9%8a%d8%ad%d8%af%d8%af-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ae%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%b3-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%82%d8%a8%d9%84-%d9%85%d9%88%d8%b9%d8%af%d8%a7-%d9%84/

 

[shadihassan28]

IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, OCTOBER 11​

Oct 11, 2022 - Press ISW
Download the PDF

Nicholas Carl, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Zachary Coles, and Frederick W. Kagan
October 11, 6:00 PM ET
The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). To receive Iran Crisis Updates via email, please subscribe here.​

Unconfirmed reports suggest that the Iranian regime is amassing military and security forces in Kurdistan Province to violently suppress protests and possibly also to conduct a ground operation into Iraqi Kurdistan.[1] Social media rumors reported on October 10 that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Law Enforcement Command (LEC) have transferred forces from Hamedan, Yazd, and elsewhere to Sanandaj, where the regime is conducting a brutal crackdown.[2] Anti-regime outlet IranWire and a UK-based Sky News journalist reported that the regime is concentrating forces in Kurdistan Province.[3]
CTP cannot verify these reports and advises caution when evaluating these reports in light of the many, often-conflicting, information operations being conducted by the regime and its opponents.
Violent clashes between protesters and state security services in Kurdistan Province occurred on October 10 and 11.[4] Social media observers described Sanandaj as a “war zone,” a description that coheres with available pictures and videos of the clashes.[5]
The regime may use forces concentrated in the border region to conduct a ground incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan against anti-regime Kurdish militant groups. Iranian political and security officials have repeatedly accused these groups of coopting and stoking the protests against the regime. Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi reiterated this accusation on October 11.[6] The IRGC conducted daily artillery, drone, and missile attacks against anti-regime Kurdish militant positions in Iraqi Kurdistan from September 26 to October 7.[7] A Telegram channel run by Iranian proxies in Iraq posted on October 11 that the IRGC is conducting a ground incursion but quickly deleted the post.[8]
The reports that the regime may conduct a ground incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan may be an Iranian information operation. An unidentified source told anti-regime outlet Iran International that the IRGC is conducting such an information operation aimed at anti-regime Kurdish militants in Iraqi Kurdistan possibly to scare them away from the border and disrupt their operations.
The concentration of security forces in Kurdistan Province could exacerbate Iranian security forces’ bandwidth issues—a key vulnerability in the regime’s internal security apparatus. The regime relies on a small number select, highly ideological units from the IRGC, Basij, and LEC to crack down on unrest and thus does not have enough manpower to cover the entire country.[9] The regime shuffles its forces to where they are needed most—typically the restive border regions—when protests erupt.[10]
Simultaneous protests in the border areas and major cities strain these forces—a vulnerability that protesters and other anti-regime groups may seek to exploit. Anti-regime, Persian-language social media accounts have called for protester solidarity with the demonstrators in Sanandaj and Zahedan.[11] Deadly clashes erupted between protesters and security forces in Zahedan on September 30.[12]
Unobserved indications that the security forces are experiencing bandwidth issues include:

• Reports of security forces transferring away from cities where there are ongoing protests
• Reports of the regime using the Artesh—its conventional military—and foreign proxies on a large-scale for protest suppression.

Anti-regime protests continued in at least 16 cities in 11 provinces on October 11 and could expand in the days ahead. English- and Persian-language social media accounts have called for protests across Iran on October 12 and 13.[13] Protesters have already demonstrated that they can coordinate large-scale demonstrations and may again succeed in doing so in the coming days.
Key Takeaways
Supreme Leader Succession
There was nothing significant to report today.
Anti-Regime Protests
Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 16 cities in 11 different provinces on October 11. Iranian security forces are continuing to use violent and lethal means to suppress protests, particularly in Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province. Anti-regime groups have called for demonstrations on October 12 and protest activity will likely increase in size and scale on this date. CTP assesses that protests occurred in the following locations on October 11:

• Borazjan, Bushehr Province
• Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province
• Esfahan City, Esfahan Province
• Najafabad, Esfahan Province (violence reported)
• Rasht, Gilan Province
• Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province
• Kermanshah, Kermanshah Province
• Abadan, Khuzestan Province
• Baneh, Kurdistan Province (violence reported)
• Divandarreh, Kurdistan Province
• Saghez, Kurdistan Province
• Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province (violence reported)
• Qom City, Qom Province
• Marlik, Tehran Province
• Tehran City, Tehran Province
• Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province

Iranian intelligence and security officers have been entering hospitals and surveilling pharmacies to identify and arrest injured protestors. CBS News reported that Iranian protestors injured in anti-regime demonstrations are avoiding seeking treatment at medical facilities for fear of being arrested by Iranian authorities, preferring home treatment to hospitalization [14] Security personnel have reportedly begun to station themselves in front of pharmacies in Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province to identify injured protestors avoiding visiting medical facilities.[15] Some social media users reported that pharmacies have limited medical supplies needed by injured protestors, including medical gauze, antibiotic serum, and lidocaine.[16] Iranian medical officials have issued several statements strongly condemning Iranian authorities’ hospital probes.[17]
Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi met with senior provincial officials in Kurdistan Province as the regime struggles to contain unrest in Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province.[18] Iranian security forces’ use of lethal force against protestors in Sanandaj has failed to curtail further demonstrations.[19] Footage circulating on social media allegedly captured security forces running away from protestors on October 11.[20] CTP cannot verify this footage. Vahidi warned Iranian youth against overthrowing the Islamic Republic—reflecting that the regime recognizes the revolutionary nature of these protests and the threat it may pose.[21]
President Ebrahim Raisi held a phone call with the family of a Basij member killed in protests in Tehran.[22] Raisi praised the Basij members’ sacrifice and service in the call. This phone call is especially tone deaf given that Raisi has expressed little to no sympathy for the protesters. Raisi is likely messaging internal regime audiences rather than the protesters. He likely seeks to reaffirm his commitment to the security establishment and its leaders, who will play a critical role in choosing the next supreme leader. He also likely sought to signal support for the low-level security personnel who are reportedly experiencing exhaustion and low morale.[23]
Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments
The Iraqi parliament plans to select a president during its upcoming October 13 session, and Iraqi nationalist and anti-corruption protesters may hold renewed anti-Iran demonstrations in response. Iraqi Parliament Speaker Mohamed al Halbousi announced during an October 11 parliamentary session that parliamentarians will reconvene for a session on October 13 to vote on a new Iraqi president.[24] Iraqi anti-corruption Tishreen movement protesters and supporters of Iraqi nationalist Shia cleric Moqtada al Sadr may play up anti-Iran sentiments—intensified by IRGC attacks into Iraqi Kurdistan and the Iranian regime‘s extreme mishandling of the protests—to prevent progress on government formation.

[1]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1579929763447459840

https://twitter.com/x/status/1579571797468778496

https://twitter.com/x/status/1579561797937664000

[2]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1579561797937664000

[3] https://iranwire.com/en/politics/108498-revolutionary-guards-deploy-forc...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1579852130487521281

[4] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-october-10
[5]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1579525545897136129

, https://twitter.com/HengawO/status/1579559921267642369, https://twitter.com/AnymousIran/status/1579533489309118464; https://iranwire.com/en/politics/108472-iran-protests-oil-workers-strike...
[6] http://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1401/07/19/2786502
[7] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-october-8
[8] Data can be provided upon request.
[9] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/whatever-it-takes-to-end-it-ira...
[10] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/whatever-it-takes-to-end-it-ira...
[11] https://twitter.com/javanane_t/status/1579769324952522752, https://twitter.com/javanane_t/status/1579828785683521542
[12] https://www.irna dot ir/news/84900671/حمله-تروریستی-در-زاهدان ; www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1401/07/08/2781751
[13] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1579871367423725572; https://twitter.com/javanane_t/status/1579828785683521542; https://twitter.com/javanane_t/status/1579769324952522752
[14] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-news-protests-deaths-people-shot-afrai...
[15] https://twitter.com/IranIntlbrk/status/1579398272174604288
[16] https://twitter.com/SasanAmjadi/status/1579376369804644352
[17] https://twitter.com/ManotoNews/status/1579391125986869249
[18] http://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1401/07/19/2786502
[19] https://twitter.com/HengawO/status/1579883663919316992
[20] https://twitter.com/SamRasoulpour/status/1579773924195577857
[21] https://www.jahannews dot com/news/815131/%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B2%DB%8C-%D8%AD%DA%A9%D9%88%D9%85%D8%AA-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%DB%8C%DA%A9-%D9%81%DA%A9%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%84%D9%87%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%87-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA
[22] http://www.president dot ir/fa/140076
[23] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-september-28
[24] https://iq dot parliament dot iq/blog/2022/10/11/%d9%85%d8%ac%d9%84%d8%b3-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%a8-%d9%8a%d8%ad%d8%af%d8%af-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ae%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%b3-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%82%d8%a8%d9%84-%d9%85%d9%88%d8%b9%d8%af%d8%a7-%d9%84/

Only real tipping point would be any police or military officials to back the protesters, and for a leader to step up whose legitimate not someone from the outside to negotiate it an end to all of this violence people can’t be stuck in the old ways if you want to survive in a changing world you have to adapt and accept change.

 

[Parsipride]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580488889126395905

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580298985532665856

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580278350312275968

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580337626833248256

For those who do not understand Farsi, they are chanting we kill those who kill our sisters

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580300170998136834

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580239481076342786

https://twitter.com/iranwire3/status/1580465671028502529?s=20&t=8CzU-AwH2dMDFlg-aA4h_g
https://twitter.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1580259120263073793?s=20&t=8CzU-AwH2dMDFlg-aA4h_g
https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/1580253946605862913?s=20&t=8CzU-AwH2dMDFlg-aA4h_g
They really are incompetent. At times there up to 10-12 of them and they still can arrest this protestor. They deliver
detrimental blows to vital organs when they have some down. It must part of their training.
https://twitter.com/SamRasoulpour/status/1580267618711183360?s=20&t=8CzU-AwH2dMDFlg-aA4h_g

 

[mohsen]

Leader should warrant the use of deadly force against these terrorists. the sooner the better.

 

[Parsipride]

You do not have to worry. They have been busy killing unarmed people. Even the leftist mouth piece CNN is throwing the regime under the bus.
If the national disobedience continue, you will not be asking people to sit down to settle the differences, you will be kissing *** and begging.
This brings the question, how were the so called foreign powers able to recruit so many school aged, college students, young people who you call terrorists? Is it possible that they do not want some tribal rules from illetrates governing them? The same ones that are busy in whorehouses abroad and find new religion when they are back in Iran? You keep posting pictures of bussed in basij that are given Roghan Kermansha, and rice, we will see how far this will go. No matter what happens, the small credibility this regime had in the eyes of the people has vanished. The difference between 2022 and 1979 is that all national wealth looted sent abroad is not safe like they arrogantly think. They are not going to be shaved their beards and become climate activists. Once the people are armed, then it is going to a different ball game.

How Iran’s protests transformed into a national uprising​

By Jomana Karadsheh, Tamara Qiblawi and Adam Pourahmadi, CNN
Updated 4:06 AM EDT, Thu October 13, 2022


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Protester says Iranian security forces firing 'military-grade bullets' at houses
CNN


03:05/ 03:35











Protester says Iranian security forces firing 'military-grade bullets' at houses
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03:35 - Source: CNN
Protester says Iranian security forces firing 'military-grade bullets' at houses
CNN —
Nearly a month after the start of nationwide protests, parts of Iran now bear the hallmarks of battle zones, with flares lighting up skies, gunfire ringing out and bloody scenes recorded in video footage.
“I am recording this video about the situation in Sanandaj,” said one demonstrator, his face covered with a black scarf and dark glasses, in a message to CNN from the Kurdish-majority city in western Iran, where some of the most dramatic images have emerged from the protests, despite a near total internet shutdown in the area.
“Last night, the security forces were firing in the direction of houses. They were using military-grade bullets,” he said. “Until now, I hadn’t heard such bullets. People were really afraid.”


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Video apparently shot from rooftops showed what appeared to be clashes between young protesters and heavily armed security forces. Bullets and flares crossed the night sky and a cloud of dust and smoke covered the city blocks.


Mother of Nika Shahkarami, teenage protester found dead in Tehran, denies daughter fell from building
At street level, other videos showed protesters throwing rocks at police, with the officers sometimes traveling in a procession of motorcycles, who appeared to be shooting at the crowd.
Large numbers of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards have been participating in the crackdown in addition to local police, say activists in Sanandaj, who accuse authorities of lashing back indiscriminately. According to Oslo-based Kurdish rights group Hengaw, a 7-year-old boy died in his mother’s arms on Sunday after security forces fired into a crowd of protesters.
While it is impossible to independently verify a death toll from such clashes, gruesome images circulating online, and eyewitness testimony collected by CNN as well as rights groups, point to the bloodshed. Video showed a driver in the city lying dead with a large gunshot wound in his face – activists said he was honking his horn in solidarity with protesters.

People gather next to a burning motorcycle in the Iranian capital Tehran on October 8, 2022.
Stringer/AFP/Getty Images
“In Sanandaj, they shoot the people honking their horns with bullets. And they shoot young and old alike,” said another protester in a video message to CNN. “The injured don’t go to hospitals because if they go there plain-clothes police will arrest them.
“We are protesting for freedom in Iran. For the prisoners and the condemned, for the people of Iran calling for the regime to go. Everyone wants this regime to go.”

More than ‘a protest for reform’​

Despite the government’s repeated claims of having restored calm, the scenes are being replicated throughout the country to varying degrees, with the Kurdish-majority west of the country appearing to bear the brunt of the crackdown.
In remarkable defiance, Iranian people keep pouring into thoroughfares across the country. The protests were first ignited by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini (also known as Zhina), who died nearly one month ago after being detained by the country’s morality police, but demonstrators have since coalesced around a range of grievances with the regime. Increasingly, activists and experts are characterizing the protests as a national uprising.
“This is not a protest for reform,” Roham Alvandi, an associate professor of History at the London School of Economics, told CNN. “This is an uprising demanding the end of the Islamic Republic. And that is something completely different to what we’ve seen before.”

What started as protests against the death of Mahsa Amini has transformed into something much larger.
Andrew Lichtenstein/Corbis/Getty Images
In the last month, Iran’s protesters have targeted the economic and political nerve centers of the regime. Videos showed people throwing rocks at police in the center of Tehran. In the capital’s bazaar, security forces were seen running away from demonstrators. Even in the conservative cities of Mashhad and Qom – the heart of the regime’s powerbase – demonstrators crop up frequently.
Some gas and oil refineries have also turned into sites of protests, which are rapidly spreading in the country’s southwest. The country’s Council of Oil Contractor Workers has said it would potentially call a strike and pause oil production.


Iran's state broadcaster hacked during nightly news program
The petroleum industry is the lifeline of Iran’s economy, which has been buckling under the strain of US sanctions unleashed by the Trump administration in 2018 and sustained by the Biden administration. US officials have been in indirect negotiations with Iran for a year and a half in a bid to restore a landmark 2015 nuclear deal – which former President Donald Trump withdrew from four years ago – that would see Iran curb its uranium enrichment program in exchange for sanctions relief.
Video suggested that the demonstrations at the refineries began as protests over wages, but then transformed into anti-regime protests, with laborers chanting “death to the dictator” – a reference to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Around the country, protesters have pushing for economic strikes with some success. In Kurdish-majority areas, where the protests are believed to be more organized than elsewhere in the country, social media videos showed lines of shops shuttered. In Tehran’s bazaar, a number of stores have closed in recent days, though many merchants say they did so to protect their shops from the protests and the crackdowns that follow. A general strike, which Iranian activists have called for, has yet to materialize.
Labor strikes are loaded with historic meaning in Iran. In 1979, oil and gas refineries played a critical role in the popular movement that overthrew the pro-Western Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and paved the way for the Islamic Republic.

Tip of the iceberg​

More widespread protest action by workers and merchants, experts say, could mark another escalation in the protests.
“If there is a nationwide general strike, what can the government do really,” said Alvandi. “That would completely paralyze the state and would show the powerlessness of the state in the face of this movement.”
Meanwhile, the crackdown continues to intensify in various parts of Iran, most notably in the Kurdish-majority north and northwest, where allegations of the mistreatment of the ethnic minority was already widespread.

An Iranian police officer on a motocycle raises a baton to disperse protesters last month.
Stringer/AFP/Getty Images
Hengaw, the Kurdish rights group, believes that the violence against protesters being reported from the region “is just a drop in the ocean,” with only partial information emerging about the crackdown.
Authorities have sporadically shut down the internet across Iran in an apparent bid to quash the protests, with the Kurdish-majority parts of the country experiencing the longest shutdowns, according to activists and the internet watchdog NetBlocks.
A “major disruption” to internet access has occurred since 9:30 a.m. in Iran (2 a.m. ET) on Wednesday, according to NetBlocks. Kurdish activists say that authorities have also shut the area’s landline network, arguing that the bloodshed seen in the videos could just be the tip of the iceberg.
“The Iranian regime and its security apparatus has no limit,” said Ramyar Hassani of Hengaw. “They know no limits.”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580225445148385280

Bad news for the regime when the working class neighbor hoods are protesting

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580244149848375296

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580552717151637504

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580264766744178688

Another leftist degenerate hack

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580243658455949313

 

[ahaider97]

Leader should warrant the use of deadly force against these terrorists. the sooner the better.

He is a very patient man, these kids will never be able to get on his nerves.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580311264919977985

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580526600302776320