The concept Interpretation of Irans new basing concept Non-nuclear states can have the highest conventional military capability but are alwa...
patarames.blogspot.com
Ok, Ive read this thing carefully.
The whole thing is sound logically, were it not for this critical mistaken assumption.
"Once such a capability is reached, the nuclear option of the opponent is neutralized due to two realities:
- A nuclear counter-force strike will not disable Irans counter-strike capability and what survives is sufficient to cause a scale of damage that can't be tolerated by the opponent
- The scale of damage due to point-strike capability on critical and high value targets, reaches a level high enough, to be compared to what was previously only possible with nuclear weapons or at least complete air dominance."
The above is a mistaken assumption upon which this whole thesis is based. Thus the theses becomes irrelevant and nonsensical.
Firstly, I don't believe that anyone will use a nuclear weapon against Iran, simply because it is not necessary. Irans destruction can easily be achieved by conventional means. Only by the US, not Israel.
Bunkers can be penetrated and destroyed. US knows where they are, and where the missile exit points are. Every inch of Iran is mapped by high resolution satellite and AI scanning is used to determine where the exit points of the missiles are. Further, US has sophisticated radar that can detect holes in the ground (missile shafts and caverns for missile storage). High explosives can be lowered into the shafts and detonated. Drones or robots can enter the segregated areas and detonate their explosives where the missiles are stored. You've seen Azerbaijani drones enter bunkers and detonate. well multiply that capability 100 times and you have USA drone capability. Not to mention DARPA two legged robots that can perform backflips. Well America probably has tens of thousands of them armed and ready to take out any such complex.
So those missile cities are no secret to anyone, they know when your scientists go for a walk. they killed him in the car without killing his wife. Apparently, by a facial recognition remote controlled gun. so those missiles has a limited shelf life.
But, lets assume just for arguments sake, that some of those missiles will go off and strike lets say Israel.
And you have, lets say 20 of these tunnels. Lets say more. lets say 40 of them. Thats 30,000 missiles safely stored that can hit Israel with a 1 tonne warhead.
I think Iran has more than 30,000 such missiles. probably 80,000. But lets say 30,000 are able to be launched successfully and with precision. that's 30 thousand hits on en enemy with a significant one tonne warhead.
Now,
An Israeli F15, can practically carry 8 tonnes of bombs. So, one F15 carries the equivalent of 8 such missiles.
Israel has 83 such aircraft. so in one sortie Israel can deliver 664 such missiles. Using just its F15 Aircraft.
It also has 25 F35, which can also carry the same amount (8 tonnes), or 200 such missiles.
It has some F16's and each can carry 2 such missiles. and it has 224 of them. So that's 448 such missiles.
So Israel, using its airforce can deliver 1,312 such one tonne missiles in one single flyover. then they will go back that same morning and load up again. and drop another 1,313 missiles.
A one tonne guided bomb is not as sophicitated as an Iranian missile and can be carried in a Toyota hilux, and a fighter plane can land on a freeway and be refilled there and repaired there. so these planes can fly several sorties per day. Lets say. they can deliver 3,939, 1 tonne bombs per day.
In 7 and a half days, Israel has dropped the equivalent of 30,000 missiles that Iran will be able to drop on Israel. But after Iran fires its missiles. that's the end. It will destroy factories and buildings. bridges and refineries and airbases (but not necessarily the planes), and it will kill a lot of people. Lets say each missile kills 5 people. they will be in shelters. that's 150,000 people.
Thats not the end of the world. Jews lost 150,000 per week in WW2 at times, and they are still going. Iran will lose more as it has less shelters and may lose 300,000 people in the first 7 days that it gets hit by these 30,000 bombs.
But the Iranian missiles are exhausted and Isreal is just getting started. every 7 days of bombing will claim 300,000 lives in Iran. lets say for 2 months. that's 2.5 million casualties in 2 months. But those planes can keep going. for 6 months, 1 year 2 years, while America replenishes the Israeli airforce as it is losing its fighters, mainly to mechanical faults. 3 sorties per day takes its toll.
So don't think for a moment Israel needs nukes to cause nuke like damage to Iran. Losing 150,000 people to Iran would be a distastes to them, but they can afford it. Israel is mainly middle eastern Jews and Russians who a probably not even real Jews. Its worth it to eliminate Iran.
This is damage Israel could conceivably do to Iran. and Damage Iran could conceivably to Israel. Now, not many western analysts would claim Iran could launch 30,000 missiles, but I say they could.
And Israel losing 150,000 people is much better than having to live with a nuclear Iran that could kill 8 million Israelis in 15 minutes, using only about 20 nuclear warheads and 5 missiles. Don't you think?
So I don't know how such missiles could even come close to replacing a nuclear deterrent?
