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We all know that it isn't just Rouhani who determines Iran's security and strategic policy. Far from it.
True enough,however its rouhani who no doubt has the final decisions on which of these policies to actually implement and as an elected leader the buck pretty much stops with him,not to mention that since the jcpoa was pretty much his baby he would have a shall we say vested interest in trying to maintain it no mater what,especially if there was no "plan b" to fall back on,indeed the very lack of any backup plan calls into question his political competence,at least as far as I`m concerned.

For the time being, sticking to the JCPOA as close as possible is simply the easiest (or should I say, least difficult) way to get the sanctions lifted. It follows the assumption that, if Iran remains in the JCPOA it will be easier for a possible Democrat president to lift sanctions in 2021. Of course, the downside of this is that Iran is not in control of the situation. It's dependent on the outcome of the US election and the US' policies after that. It is likely that if Trump is re-elected, Iran would undertake an Ahmadinejad-style nuclear expansion in order to regain leverage for yet another nuclear deal, or even go for the bomb if the situation deteriorates.
Personally I dont think that the sanctions would`ve ever been lifted,not fully anyway,and I have no doubts that the intentions of the west was either to try and buy time in the hope of a better solution ie the dismantling of irans nuclear program,or at a minimum to enure that the jcpoa and its sunset clauses were made "permanent",as we saw before with irans "temporary freeze" back in the 2000s which the eurovassals came to believe would be permanent,"the freeze for freeze" at least as they saw it .

It seems Iran is testing the JCPOA and Europe's limits by contemplating increasing centrifuge research.
Its a nice idea that one could perhaps force the us and europe to break ranks and for europe to put its own interests first for once,but its a pipe dream,the euros have been us vassals for just too long,over 70 years in fact almost the span of a human lifetime,to start putting their own interests first,sadly they will do whatever they`re told to do no matter what the cost to them because that is simply a vassals lot,indeed one only has to look at all of the considerable economic costs that the sanctions have inflicted upon them as well.

I do agree with you that there was no plan B. After all, who could have predicted Trump? Even established republicans were saying that now the deal had been signed, they wanted to stick to it.
In all honesty I dont think one needed to be able to see the future much less the election of a chump to realise that the chances of this deal surviving were not very good at all,indeed one only needed to look at the past,in this case very recent history in fact to see this rather obvious trend of us successor regimes tearing up their predecessors political deals for no good reason,apart from nothing more than sheer spite or stupidity or perhaps just blind obedience to ideology,for instance bush tearing up clintons agreed framework,this alone should`ve been a very,very clear red flag to rouhani but he either ignored it or thought that by involving the un,eu,russia,china etc that this would make it impossible for the us to withdraw from the deal,if this was his thinking then it shows a near incredible degree of naivety on his part especially for an iranian politician who supposedly had a political career that dated back to the beginning of the revolution.The other example of this was of course libya,this time it was a democrat the supposedly sane and politically competent obama who went and tore up his republican predecessors deal with libya,again an act of gross stupidity and spite with the eurovassals playing a big role as well.
Ultimately the problem here is the one that is endemic to all democratic systems ie a lack of political continuity.Effectively this means that any deal you do with the us has at most only a 4 to 8 year life span,thats assuming of course that the deal in question is made right at the start of the new regime.

I think that iran has some hard choices to make,but like it or not it has to make them simply because continuing to do nothing ie "strategic patience" is no longer a credible option.
 
Ok shitbag.but i must yell you the us doesnt need any justification to wage war.

Btw its shared between iran and oman
main-qimg-7437ce36346f36d758801813debdd62a-c


Conducting a military missile strikes against the UAE and wiping out their military & oil infrastructure or even going full steam ahead in building and testing a Nuclear Bomb has far less risk attached to it than closing down the Persian Gulf.

Maintaining security for the Persian Gulf is what gives Iran's own shipping industry security and not just in the Persian Gulf so shutting down the Persian Gulf is a card Iran should only pull out if it's own shipping lines are ever threatened 1st! Because if we shut down the Persian Gulf 1st we risk other countries whos interests are threated following suit off their own shores with Iranian ships globally.

UAE so far has repeatedly attempted to meddle in Iran's economy from smuggling Gasoline out of Iran to meddling with Iran's currency so at this point in my opinion any military action Iran takes against them will be more than justified and since they have made a point of putting their name up then Iran needs to also make a point of making an example of them!
The strait is open for innocent passage, civillian ships could enter. If the iranian government decide to close the strait. It will be a cassus belli for war. Which i would happily endorse btw
 
Btw its shared between iran and oman
main-qimg-7437ce36346f36d758801813debdd62a-c



The strait is open for innocent passage, civillian ships could enter. If the iranian government decide to close the strait. It will be a cassus belli for war. Which i would happily endorse btw
LOL!,you really should look at the map you posted.The deep water channels that ALLOW ENTRANCE to the upper gulf are in IRANIAN waters.You see the straits are a bit like an airlock,you have the inner channels in iran which allow entrance to the upper gulf and you have the outer channels in omani waters that allow access to the indian ocean and the outer gulf.So you can see that without access to both of those deep water channels you ain`t goin` nowhere.....clear enough m8?:smart:
 
LOL!,you really should look at the map you posted.The deep water channels that ALLOW ENTRANCE to the upper gulf are in IRANIAN waters.You see the straits are a bit like an airlock,you have the inner channels in iran which allow entrance to the upper gulf and you have the outer channels in omani waters that allow access to the indian ocean and the outer gulf.So you can see that without access to both of those deep water channels you ain`t goin` nowhere.....clear enough m8?:smart:
Ok thank you for your information.:-).
But still iran cant close the strait just because of the sanction. Even in the height if iran iraq war. Iran doesnt even dare to close the strait,just targetting iraqi vessels. So I think the threat to close the strait is just another typical middle eastern bluff
 
We all know that it isn't just Rouhani who determines Iran's security and strategic policy. Far from it.

For the time being, sticking to the JCPOA as close as possible is simply the easiest (or should I say, least difficult) way to get the sanctions lifted. It follows the assumption that, if Iran remains in the JCPOA it will be easier for a possible Democrat president to lift sanctions in 2021. Of course, the downside of this is that Iran is not in control of the situation. It's dependent on the outcome of the US election and the US' policies after that. It is likely that if Trump is re-elected, Iran would undertake an Ahmadinejad-style nuclear expansion in order to regain leverage for yet another nuclear deal, or even go for the bomb if the situation deteriorates.

It seems Iran is testing the JCPOA and Europe's limits by contemplating increasing centrifuge research.

I do agree with you that there was no plan B. After all, who could have predicted Trump? Even established republicans were saying that now the deal had been signed, they wanted to stick to it.

The notion that once Trump is gone the next U.S. administration would simply remove all sanction without wanting anything in return is IDIOTIC!

At the end of the day THE ONLY reason the Obama administration in the U.S. moved away from 0 enrichment is because Iran had responded to U.S. sanctions with 20,000 centrifuges with as high as 30% enrichment. And this time around the Americans have restarted the sanction regime back up and lucky for them they have an idiotic Iranian president that wants to do nothing in response? And you think this is NOT Rohani's fault? Come on man! I voted for the guy but this is just foolish!
Rohani may not be in total control of Iran's security apparatus but he is far from powerless even when it comes to strategic policy making within the confines set by Iranian law.

So yes Rohani may not have the power to weak up tomorrow and turn Bashar Assad into the bad guy and turn Iran into a U.S. puppet state so there are clear redlines neither he nor any other Iranian president can't simply cross in a whim but within the redlines set he is far from powerless even when it comes to strategic policy making. Just look at what he has done to our space program.

Today Iran is being punished as if we have already cross the threshold and built, tested, stocked & even threatened others with nukes and now we are being punished for it and the Americans have overplayed their sanction card to a point that if we started building nukes today or even start a regional war there would be no sanction card as worse as sanctioning Iranian oil left that they can pressure Iran with.

So for them the only way their idiotic strategy could potentially work for them is if Iran sits around and does nothing in response to U.S. sanction and we continue to allow EU to play the Rohani administration as fools that they are. So the idea that sticking to the JCPOA would make any sense while our Oil industry is threatened is idiotic and absurd. Rohani may be under the delusion that the Europeans and the Democrats ashegheh cheshm abroosh shodan but that's nothing but a delusion!
 
The notion that once Trump is gone the next U.S. administration would simply remove all sanction without wanting anything in return is IDIOTIC!

At the end of the day THE ONLY reason the Obama administration in the U.S. moved away from 0 enrichment is because Iran had responded to U.S. sanctions with 20,000 centrifuges with as high as 30% enrichment. And this time around the Americans have restarted the sanction regime back up and lucky for them they have an idiotic Iranian president that wants to do nothing in response? And you think this is NOT Rohani's fault? Come on man! I voted for the guy but this is just foolish!
Rohani may not be in total control of Iran's security apparatus but he is far from powerless even when it comes to strategic policy making within the confines set by Iranian law.

So yes Rohani may not have the power to weak up tomorrow and turn Bashar Assad into the bad guy and turn Iran into a U.S. puppet state so there are clear redlines neither he nor any other Iranian president can't simply cross in a whim but within the redlines set he is far from powerless even when it comes to strategic policy making. Just look at what he has done to our space program.

Today Iran is being punished as if we have already cross the threshold and built, tested, stocked & even threatened others with nukes and now we are being punished for it and the Americans have overplayed their sanction card to a point that if we started building nukes today or even start a regional war there would be no sanction card as worse as sanctioning Iranian oil left that they can pressure Iran with.

So for them the only way their idiotic strategy could potentially work for them is if Iran sits around and does nothing in response to U.S. sanction and we continue to allow EU to play the Rohani administration as fools that they are. So the idea that sticking to the JCPOA would make any sense while our Oil industry is threatened is idiotic and absurd. Rohani may be under the delusion that the Europeans and the Democrats ashegheh cheshm abroosh shodan but that's nothing but a delusion!

Good points you have made.. As Iranians no matter where we are and what our political thoughts are we must accept the reality that:
US problem with Iran is not the nuclear or missile capabilities. US fundamental problem with Iran is accepting a middle power country like Iran having a governing system that can not be controlled by them. If you look at the map all the middle power countries like Brazil, India, Japan ,Germany, France are under their sphere of control (once you see the Pride parade in these countries you know they are done..lol). The old world order is changing and Iran is forcing this change so Iran will pay the highest price for being first in the line..Empire is dying and will do crazy acts to keep the old order in place (they are already talking about regime change in CHINA!!!). Knowing this leaders in Iran will have to make a clear choice :

-Inoculate Iran against US threats and wait until the empire dies (have the bomb, have your ICBM and hope they will not attack while you are at it).
-Go in line and be a good vassal state like the others and all will be forgiven (of course have a pride parade too ...lol).
 
Good points you have made.. As Iranians no matter where we are and what our political thoughts are we must accept the reality that:
US problem with Iran is not the nuclear or missile capabilities. US fundamental problem with Iran is accepting a middle power country like Iran having a governing system that can not be controlled by them. If you look at the map all the middle power countries like Brazil, India, Japan ,Germany, France are under their sphere of control (once you see the Pride parade in these countries you know they are done..lol). The old world order is changing and Iran is forcing this change so Iran will pay the highest price for being first in the line..Empire is dying and will do crazy acts to keep the old order in place (they are already talking about regime change in CHINA!!!). Knowing this leaders in Iran will have to make a clear choice :

-Inoculate Iran against US threats and wait until the empire dies (have the bomb, have your ICBM and hope they will not attack while you are at it).
-Go in line and be a good vassal state like the others and all will be forgiven (of course have a pride parade too ...lol).

Its not U.S sphere of influence, Its the Zionist sphere of influence that the U.S itself is entangled in.
 
Good points you have made.. As Iranians no matter where we are and what our political thoughts are we must accept the reality that:
US problem with Iran is not the nuclear or missile capabilities. US fundamental problem with Iran is accepting a middle power country like Iran having a governing system that can not be controlled by them. If you look at the map all the middle power countries like Brazil, India, Japan ,Germany, France are under their sphere of control (once you see the Pride parade in these countries you know they are done..lol). The old world order is changing and Iran is forcing this change so Iran will pay the highest price for being first in the line..Empire is dying and will do crazy acts to keep the old order in place (they are already talking about regime change in CHINA!!!). Knowing this leaders in Iran will have to make a clear choice :

-Inoculate Iran against US threats and wait until the empire dies (have the bomb, have your ICBM and hope they will not attack while you are at it).
-Go in line and be a good vassal state like the others and all will be forgiven (of course have a pride parade too ...lol).

Yup the U.S. hasn't sanctioned Iran's Air Force going on 4 decades now if their ultimate goals regarding Iran had anything to do with Iranian Missiles, Nukes or Iran's regional behavior.

What the Americans want is clear:
1.Access and control over all corridors connecting East Asia to the Mediterranean (Ground, Air & Sea) which includes any new Chinese Silk road, any trans regional rail road & or energy shipping routs or pipelines that would be connecting East Asia to West Asia up to the Mediterranean and into Europe.
They want to be the only major Power in control of the worlds main shipping routs from Oil supplies through the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea so they can use their control over all the corridors in that area to pressure whomever they want whenever they want and have the capability to manipulate the markets on a whim and ensure that all trad is done with U.S. dollars with the ultimate goal of ensuring that the U.S. Dollar remains King!

2.Access to a vast deposit of untapped Iranian natural resources & a guarantee that it's traded in U.S. currency.(Clearly a plus in achieving their goals but not an ultimate factor)

3.Access from the Persian Gulf to the Caspian sea. (Another major plus not a deciding factor)

And to achieve these goals Americans need puppet and obedient governments in Iran, Iraq, Syria,..... with the largest obstacle being Iran. And the main reason Iran is the main obstacle today is due to it's vast stock of domestically produced weapons in particular missiles. But that doesn't mean the U.S. wants to keep the world safe from Iranian missiles but to simply keep their plans safe from them.

At the end of the day if the U.S. one day becomes bound by all the rules that prevent other countries from printing as much money as they want whenever they want without consequences, if that ever happens to the U.S. Dollar in a country that's already in a $22 Trillion USD debt well that will equal to the end of the U.S. empire.
 
Conducting a military missile strikes against the UAE and wiping out their military & oil infrastructure or even going full steam ahead in building and testing a Nuclear Bomb has far less risk attached to it than closing down the Persian Gulf.

Maintaining security for the Persian Gulf is what gives Iran's own shipping industry security and not just in the Persian Gulf so shutting down the Persian Gulf is a card Iran should only pull out if it's own shipping lines are ever threatened 1st! Because if we shut down the Persian Gulf 1st we risk other countries whos interests are threated following suit off their own shores with Iranian ships globally.

UAE so far has repeatedly attempted to meddle in Iran's economy from smuggling Gasoline out of Iran to meddling with Iran's currency so at this point in my opinion any military action Iran takes against them will be more than justified and since they have made a point of putting their name up then Iran needs to also make a point of making an example of them!

Well said.
 

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