Turkey is on the verge of bankruptcy. Their economy is basically in ruins. No tourism because of Coronavirus and the small fortune Erdogan has spent on Syria/Libya hasn't really paid off the way he envisioned that it would.
In desperation Erdogan is now trying to claim resources from southern Cyprus, basically European resources. Europe will not stand for that. Recently French jets did constand fly bys above a Turkish drilling ship. Erodgan is now playing a very dangerous game in multiple theaters.
Despite endless negotiations with Washington and countless delays, the Turks are going ahead with the implementation of the S-400, which could easily lead to sanctions from the US. The Europeans are talking about sanctions as well which would completely eradicate Turkey's economy.
On the other hand the Syrian mercenaries in Libya, numbering 30,000+ are each being paid $2000 a month, not including food, weapons, spare parts, etc. Turkey lost 3 air defense systems in Watiya and has lost well over 20+ drones each priced at $5 million. War is costly and Erdogan needs more gains in Libya to acquire Libyan oil.
Egypt however has stated that Sirte, Turkey's next target, is a red line. Most Turkish fanboys completely dismiss the Egyptian/UAE military capabilities but Egypt has Rafale jets, SU-35's, about 200 F-16's and thousands of Abrams tanks. Not to mention that Libya is very close to Egypt, only seperated by a line in the ground that doesn't exist. Turkey on the other hand has to send forces all the way across the meditteranean. Their F-16's would have to fly a long way just to reach LIbya and realistically their F-16's are no match for Rafale's or SU-35's. The UAE is currently moving jets to Egypt near striking range as well. Rafale jets were responsible for destroying the 3 Turkish air defense systems in Watiya, so that's not a good sign.
In regards to missile tech, Turkey has a long way to go until they can match Iran. Iran has hypersonic missiles, a large stockpile of missiles with pinpoint accuracy and Iranian missiles can reach all of Europe. Realistically Iran has the know how to produce a missile that could reach Washington but for political reasons, they're capping the range of their missiles at 2500 no matter what.
In terms of their nuclear program, Russia is going to build several nuclear reactors in Turkey, but Russian technicians will be running the show and will remove all the depleted Uranium monthly. If Turkey tries to go nuclear or develop it's missile program further, again they're teetering on the brink of devastating sanctions being imposed and unlike Iran, Turkey does not have natural resources to naturally fall back on and their economy is too dependent on trade with Europe.
Who knows, only time will tell, but Erdogan is walking a tight rope at the moment.
Turkey unveiled their 'new' missile technology just yesterday
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