PeeD
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There is meanwhile a good likelihood that this system shown at the 2017 parade in North Korea is connected to Iran.
Back then, North Koreans showed their lightweight liquid ICBMs and heavy weight ones. This one would be a untested solid fuel light ICBM.
Now what is the Iran link?
Well, it was a bold parade that showed 3 parallel strategic programs:
- Liquid lightweight (demonstrated)
- Liquid heavyweight (demonstrated)
- Solid lightweight (not demonstrated)
This sudden appearance of a heavyweight and solid lightweight added to the existing liquid lightweight they were certainly working on, looked amazing but not really credible.
So it might well be that this third solid lightweight was either a early demonstrator, a fake mock-up modeled on DF-31 or a mock-up of an Iranian system (planned to?) transferred to them. Bear in mind that any presented system must look credible enough for enemy experts to believe it.
North Korean missile school favors all-terrain and tracked vehicles for their missiles. When the showed a "Nodong" variant similar to the Ghadr around the late 2000's, it looked like a technology transfer from Iran but the didn't use the road-grade truck of Iranian Ghadr but a MAZ TEL variant.
Hence it looks suspicious: Their Nodong MAZ TELs were available for that Ghadr related Nodong variant but creating a credible looking MAZ based TEL for the new missile would be a difficult task.
Admitted: Their all-terrain TEL capabilities/numbers might not have been sufficient in 2017 to created MAZ variant trucks for the new missile and hence they were forced to use a road-truck TEL.
Next point: It is true that the core of Irans solid fuel missile team was martyred together with Shahid Tehrani Moghaddam, but the capabilities have been regained to some extend.
(according to ***** TV series it was sabotage via Mossad/MEK, intended leak?)
We know that Iran tests ICBM-size boosters via Armscontrolwonk while we don't know about North Korea doing something like that.
Both NK and Iran (Zolfaghar BM) have displayed capability of filament composite casings. Iran probably even carbon fiber based filament technology. Hence the <2m diameter and <18m length of this lightweight ICBM could be weithin miniaturization capabilities of both countries. Original DF-31 ICBM which is larger is very similar in TEL layout but should be a cruder high strength steel based design which requires ~30% larger size.
2008 vintage Sejil design also still used high strength steel based casing technology. The new missile would then represent a filament casing Sejil with diameter improved from 1,3m to 1,9m while keeping the 17-18m lenght, plus better TVC technology. Via those changes the range would improve from 2000km to 12000km.
Sounds much? Well the Dezul has 10-20% total larger dimensions than the Fathe-110 but improved the range from originally 250km 4-fold to 1000km. Now scale this to the Sejil and the new missile: 50% larger diameter than the Sejil, then a 6-fold range increase instead of 4-fold from Fateh to Dezful would be well feasible.
NK showed Aramid/Kevlar based filament technology but Iran looks to have carbon fiber based filament technology. NK has demonstrated solid-fuel-grade TVC vane technology compact and fast-acting enough for a container launched missile without fins, Iran not yet.
The new missile is a very compact ICBM around the same size as Irans Ghadr, Sejil and Shahab-3 TELs. It's warhead might weight just 600-800kg, sufficient for an advanced nuclear warhead but it would only make sense for a <50m CEP conventional warhead.
Iran has not demonstrated a cold launched container based missile, while NK has. Container launch increases cost and is not a must for a climate like Irans. Plus carbon fiber filament casings are also expensive.
So a important question is what economical sense such a single warhead ICBM would make if it does not use nuclear warheads primarily.
So this is the next point: Iran has demonstrated necessary accurate long range accuracy by the Khorramshahr-2 testing video. Can it be scaled to ICBM range or would the INS drift so much that no CEP of <50m is possible @ 12000km? Can terminal course corrections be performed at the incredible high thermal and aerodynamic stress of a ICBM range re-entry?
Huge technological hurdles but if it is possible for Iran, then a conventional lightweight, single warhead ICBM would make sense for Iran against very high value targets. Otherwise a heavy liquid ICBM with MRV, MIRV would be a significantly more cost effective approach.
With a CEP of >200m for a very good, high-speed terminally unguided warhead, a 600-800kg conventional warhead would probably already make no economic sense anymore.
So is the missile at the North Korean parade actually the fruit of Shahid Tehrani Moghaddam and his teams efforts used by NK to display a higher capability than it has?
I think there is a good chance for it.
Has Iran just gave a credible mock-up or transferred the technology to them? Well possible that the whole technology was transferred for their help in other fields.
Is the system robust enough without having being tested? Well possible; boosters with the size have been tested in Iran. Key open hurdle is re-entry and thermal technology barriers. But Irans and NKs understanding of BMs and simulation capabilities seems to be so advanced, that systems are robust enough when finished to work on correctly the first flight.
When I looked at photos from the DF-31 in the early 2000's I wondered when Iran can reach something similar. If this systems turns out to be the alleged light ICBM completed by Shahid Tehrani Moghaddams team (heavy solid ICBM/SLV project ended in the sabotage disaster?), then it is even better than the DF-31...