Iranian military engine development news and updates

[Bahram Esfandiari]

Mohens jan you may very well be correct, I have no way to prove a hearsay from other individuals.

You are also very correct in assuming that I have not lived in Iran since prior to revolution.

But to assure you that I do NOT simply talk out of my @$$ purposelessly, I want to explain where I got this information from. Here's some background.

I was young in Bamdad School (middle school) in Tehran and won a scholarship due to a military test that I took (my familly members - not the same last name as myself - were 2 individuals in Artesh and General Rahimi - not the one that was executed). My scholarship at the young age allowed me to go to a famous (cannot mention it here) military school in England, paid for by the previous regime in Iran. When they collapsed, and could not pay that high fee, I was accepted in Hatfield Aeronautics School (now the name has changed to Hertfordshire) to finish my studies until I was 18. Later I went to university in UK and obtained 3 degrees. My family were all based in CA. and I was there a lot too, until I was 18. I stayed in UK for quite a while until I got a very good and cushy job offer in Seattle, with crazy money of course. Who could turn that down.

The above gave me access to many people that I met over the years and went to school with. Many ex Iranians being trained in the West to return to Iran after their training.

General Rahimi was in charge of Semnan military planning group, prior in charge of logistics, runway construction, supplies, food storage for war planning, etc. His kids (all 3 of them, older than me, were already in military training schools all over the world).

Most of my family members, and brothers: trained Bell 214C pilots, Navy officer trained first in Pakistan and later in Italy, and others which I cannot mention specific area, were training in the West.

Regarding Doran:

At one point in 1990s I was invited by a family friend who was in UK with me many years earlier, to go visit him in Austria. At the time I was working in Toulouse France on a project, and visiting family members at a German gas turbine engine factory. I use to drive there all the time, when I was in France. So my family members and I drove from Germany to Austria and met up with many friends, old and new.

There at a Mozart recognition evening in a spectacular restaurant (I can only describe it like a cave from 1,000 years ago), I met 2 writers who were interviewing many Iranian and Iraqi air force pilots for their book about the Iran-Iraq war.

For the remaining 2 days that I was in Austria before driving back, I met up with one of the authors and we talked a lot. I learned so much from him regarding family members in Iran during the Shah which I had never met, who died in the war. He was in Iran AF intelligence and had changed his name, obviously.

That is where I got the information about Doran and what happened, and Zandi, before his car accident, and many others. These two authors were very detail oriented and unlike some Iranians who are just gossip masters. They had detailed evidence and names, and times, dates, etc.

In fact, Max Blumenthal had met them when he was young and he was with his father (Sidney Blumenthal was an amazing individual, that's another story on its own).

So, I just wanted to assure you, I don't spread dumb gossip for pointless discussion, and I have had military connections since I was a kid.

If you knew how many funerals I have attended for Iranian military heads who died and are buried in CA, and other parts of West, you would understand where my information comes from. To protect some family members who work in the West in sensitive areas, I have to respect their wishes and not divulge information which may possibly, one in a million, expose them, or create any difficulties for them. Cause everyone is listening, with GREAT DEAL OF PREJUDICE.

Thank you for your comment, and I appreciate your opinion Mohsen jan.

You met Tom Cooper and Farzad Bishop?

 

[EvilWesteners]

You met Tom Cooper and Farzad Bishop?

Bahram jan, is it possible that we have met at some point in our lives?

You seem familiar to me. Am I crazy?

Did you ever go to those military family get togethers with lots of people standing around chatting and talking about war and politics?

Did I meet you in Virginia, possibly, or have you ever been in Germany, UK, or Southern CA?

You seem familiar to me. Unless I am totally wrong.

 

[EvilWesteners]

I would love to see this engine in upgraded F-5e in Iran, instead of the J85.

Same weight, they have to work around the extra length and width by redesign. but can be done and worth it
since - more thrust, and better fuel efficiency, and able to fly at higher altitudes. Non afterburner produces more thrust that afterburner J85, for the same weight. Impressive engine. Never took off because of its time and the need for more trust. Iran can use the F5e design testing to test this engine and then design a new fighter around it. Technology is still simple enough for Iran. No big deal.

Are we dreaming? Actually, no not really.

The differences are just slight technology augmentation, not drastic changes. Same original manufacturer. Same in many aspects actually. If Iran didn't spend about 40% of defence budget on veterans and instead the budget was spent on R&D with a huge young engineering talent pool to enter this area, it could very possibly be done. The budget for Iran's veterans can come from appropriations from higher taxes or government bond manufacturing a car or as they do, charging 200% for luxury car imports to go to Iran's veterans. The psychology of it, makes it possible to charge high import tax to spend on veterans.

Just an idea. Unless I am totally talking out of my @$$.

 

[Bahram Esfandiari]

Bahram jan, is it possible that we have met at some point in our lives?

You seem familiar to me. Am I crazy?

Did you ever go to those military family get togethers with lots of people standing around chatting and talking about war and politics?

Did I meet you in Virginia, possibly, or have you ever been in Germany, UK, or Southern CA?

You seem familiar to me. Unless I am totally wrong.

No I'm afraid I have never had the pleasure of meeting you Sir. I have been living in Canada since 1988 and have never travelled outside of Canada in that time.

 

[mohsen]

Mohens jan you may very well be correct, I have no way to prove a hearsay from other individuals.

You are also very correct in assuming that I have not lived in Iran since prior to revolution.

But to assure you that I do NOT simply talk out of my @$$ purposelessly, I want to explain where I got this information from. Here's some background.

I was young in Bamdad School (middle school) in Tehran and won a scholarship due to a military test that I took (my familly members - not the same last name as myself - were 2 individuals in Artesh and General Rahimi - not the one that was executed). My scholarship at the young age allowed me to go to a famous (cannot mention it here) military school in England, paid for by the previous regime in Iran. When they collapsed, and could not pay that high fee, I was accepted in Hatfield Aeronautics School (now the name has changed to Hertfordshire) to finish my studies until I was 18. Later I went to university in UK and obtained 3 degrees. My family were all based in CA. and I was there a lot too, until I was 18. I stayed in UK for quite a while until I got a very good and cushy job offer in Seattle, with crazy money of course. Who could turn that down.

The above gave me access to many people that I met over the years and went to school with. Many ex Iranians being trained in the West to return to Iran after their training.

General Rahimi was in charge of Semnan military planning group, prior in charge of logistics, runway construction, supplies, food storage for war planning, etc. His kids (all 3 of them, older than me, were already in military training schools all over the world).

Most of my family members, and brothers: trained Bell 214C pilots, Navy officer trained first in Pakistan and later in Italy, and others which I cannot mention specific area, were training in the West.

Regarding Doran:

At one point in 1990s I was invited by a family friend who was in UK with me many years earlier, to go visit him in Austria. At the time I was working in Toulouse France on a project, and visiting family members at a German gas turbine engine factory. I use to drive there all the time, when I was in France. So my family members and I drove from Germany to Austria and met up with many friends, old and new.

There at a Mozart recognition evening in a spectacular restaurant (I can only describe it like a cave from 1,000 years ago), I met 2 writers who were interviewing many Iranian and Iraqi air force pilots for their book about the Iran-Iraq war.

For the remaining 2 days that I was in Austria before driving back, I met up with one of the authors and we talked a lot. I learned so much from him regarding family members in Iran during the Shah which I had never met, who died in the war. He was in Iran AF intelligence and had changed his name, obviously.

That is where I got the information about Doran and what happened, and Zandi, before his car accident, and many others. These two authors were very detail oriented and unlike some Iranians who are just gossip masters. They had detailed evidence and names, and times, dates, etc.

In fact, Max Blumenthal had met them when he was young and he was with his father (Sidney Blumenthal was an amazing individual, that's another story on its own).

So, I just wanted to assure you, I don't spread dumb gossip for pointless discussion, and I have had military connections since I was a kid.

If you knew how many funerals I have attended for Iranian military heads who died and are buried in CA, and other parts of West, you would understand where my information comes from. To protect some family members who work in the West in sensitive areas, I have to respect their wishes and not divulge information which may possibly, one in a million, expose them, or create any difficulties for them. Cause everyone is listening, with GREAT DEAL OF PREJUDICE.

Thank you for your comment, and I appreciate your opinion Mohsen jan.

Many foreigners who met Iranian outside Iran, have a totally different perspective about Iran and Iranians, afterall even Bani-Sadr introduces himself as a patriot! I have heard it several times from none-Iranian members in this forum, not surprising at all.

Post revolution's Harsh conditions had certain side effects, as it's said, desperate times, desperate measures. we did have traitors in airforce who were taking their orders from outside, a real coup (which was exposed by other airforce members by the way), maintenance staff who were sabotaging our aircrafts to make them crash during flight (and again were identified by other members), etc. nonetheless, the very same Zandi was promoted up to brigadier general and deputy chief commander in airforce. not a very good example when talking about a suppressing system!

About Doran and Zandi you get a totally different idea when you listen to domestic sources:
Zandi:
زندانی شدن زندی توسط شهیدبابائی

Doran:
اولین داوطلب بمباران اسرائیل چه کسی بود | خبرگزاری فارس

 

[mohsen]

View attachment 764958


I would love to see this engine in upgraded F-5e in Iran, instead of the J85.

Same weight, they have to work around the extra length and width by redesign. but can be done and worth it
since - more thrust, and better fuel efficiency, and able to fly at higher altitudes. Non afterburner produces more thrust that afterburner J85, for the same weight. Impressive engine. Never took off because of its time and the need for more trust. Iran can use the F5e design testing to test this engine and then design a new fighter around it. Technology is still simple enough for Iran. No big deal.

Are we dreaming? Actually, no not really.

The differences are just slight technology augmentation, not drastic changes. Same original manufacturer. Same in many aspects actually. If Iran didn't spend about 40% of defence budget on veterans and instead the budget was spent on R&D with a huge young engineering talent pool to enter this area, it could very possibly be done. The budget for Iran's veterans can come from appropriations from higher taxes or government bond manufacturing a car or as they do, charging 200% for luxury car imports to go to Iran's veterans. The psychology of it, makes it possible to charge high import tax to spend on veterans.

Just an idea. Unless I am totally talking out of my @$$.

The next year's budget is truly in question, the fuckers have chosen the same printing money policy of Venezuela, I'm deeply terrified, the only option is west style tax-on-everything which still haven't implemented, at least not in the next year budget.

 

[PeeD]

View attachment 764958


I would love to see this engine in upgraded F-5e in Iran, instead of the J85.

Same weight, they have to work around the extra length and width by redesign. but can be done and worth it
since - more thrust, and better fuel efficiency, and able to fly at higher altitudes. Non afterburner produces more thrust that afterburner J85, for the same weight. Impressive engine. Never took off because of its time and the need for more trust. Iran can use the F5e design testing to test this engine and then design a new fighter around it. Technology is still simple enough for Iran. No big deal.

Are we dreaming? Actually, no not really.

The differences are just slight technology augmentation, not drastic changes. Same original manufacturer. Same in many aspects actually. If Iran didn't spend about 40% of defence budget on veterans and instead the budget was spent on R&D with a huge young engineering talent pool to enter this area, it could very possibly be done. The budget for Iran's veterans can come from appropriations from higher taxes or government bond manufacturing a car or as they do, charging 200% for luxury car imports to go to Iran's veterans. The psychology of it, makes it possible to charge high import tax to spend on veterans.

Just an idea. Unless I am totally talking out of my @$$.

Iran will likely work on a new family based on the FJ33 core, Jahesh-700.

FJ33 upscaled to FJ44 level with added afterburner, would be an ideal turbofan engine for the F-5. ~40% more thrust and the fuel efficiency benefits a turbofan creates.

FJ33 core is very simple and offers a good basis for a whole new family.

I just wonder whether its centrifugal HP stage would create issues in a fighterjet application.

 

[Shawnee]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1419302615855386627

 

[EvilWesteners]

Iran will likely work on a new family based on the FJ33 core, Jahesh-700.

FJ33 upscaled to FJ44 level with added afterburner, would be an ideal turbofan engine for the F-5. ~40% more thrust and the fuel efficiency benefits a turbofan creates.

FJ33 core is very simple and offers a good basis for a whole new family.

I just wonder whether its centrifugal HP stage would create issues in a fighterjet application.

My friend Peed, this would not be ideal for a fighter jet, may be possibly a sub-sonic trainer, but it won't work for a full-on light fighter or LIFT.

When talking to front-line fighter pilots, they talk for hours about flight optimization for combat purposes, they mention for instance amount of fuel used up during mission start, taxy, take off, diversion to alternate airfield 100nm away, external tanks during flight to and at the time of, combat zone, things like 15 min station at 500kns, FL 100, FL 200, FL 300, combat radius of 200 kns, weapons use, targeting HVAA capability, and almost everyone of them they don't necessarily care about fuel consumption (or not in the back of their mind). They want a reliable and able engine/aircraft AT THE TIME OF COMBAT, and they want THRUST, to get it, give it, take it, and get out of there.

This engine fails each and everyone of those scenarios and performance requirements. It has none of the combat performance ratios that pilots want or "think" they need. This is NOT a fighter jet level engine. Not now, not ever.

As far as I know, the 5A and even the 4A were tested for up to 400kns in various platforms but never more than that even if brochures suggest that it can do more, such as the case with Israeli MK10 Javeline.

For subsonic UAVs, I would say NEAR PERFECT.

For fight jet, NEAR CATASTROPHIC.

Iran either needs a cheap and cheerful, stable, tough, durable engine that is low level technology, which can build and replace quickly while working to a level of reasonable MTBF.

Or, it would need something of the level of AL31F.

I believe only the former is possible for the time being.

But hey, I have been wrong before. I would love for Iran to build a single engine Mig35 with an AL31F. Great aerodynamic performance. incredible capability with inline weapons, or air patrol with large numbers of air to air missile for UAV and strike weapons engagement covering air defence with ground coordination. But like the image attached, it is a dream.

As always, I enjoy reading your posts and learning from your insights.

Have a great weekend.

 

[PeeD]

My friend Peed, this would not be ideal for a fighter jet, may be possibly a sub-sonic trainer, but it won't work for a full-on light fighter or LIFT.

When talking to front-line fighter pilots, they talk for hours about flight optimization for combat purposes, they mention for instance amount of fuel used up during mission start, taxy, take off, diversion to alternate airfield 100nm away, external tanks during flight to and at the time of, combat zone, things like 15 min station at 500kns, FL 100, FL 200, FL 300, combat radius of 200 kns, weapons use, targeting HVAA capability, and almost everyone of them they don't necessarily care about fuel consumption (or not in the back of their mind). They want a reliable and able engine/aircraft AT THE TIME OF COMBAT, and they want THRUST, to get it, give it, take it, and get out of there.

This engine fails each and everyone of those scenarios and performance requirements. It has none of the combat performance ratios that pilots want or "think" they need. This is NOT a fighter jet level engine. Not now, not ever.

As far as I know, the 5A and even the 4A were tested for up to 400kns in various platforms but never more than that even if brochures suggest that it can do more, such as the case with Israeli MK10 Javeline.

For subsonic UAVs, I would say NEAR PERFECT.

For fight jet, NEAR CATASTROPHIC.

Iran either needs a cheap and cheerful, stable, tough, durable engine that is low level technology, which can build and replace quickly while working to a level of reasonable MTBF.

Or, it would need something of the level of AL31F.

I believe only the former is possible for the time being.

But hey, I have been wrong before. I would love for Iran to build a single engine Mig35 with an AL31F. Great aerodynamic performance. incredible capability with inline weapons, or air patrol with large numbers of air to air missile for UAV and strike weapons engagement covering air defence with ground coordination. But like the image attached, it is a dream.

As always, I enjoy reading your posts and learning from your insights.

Have a great weekend.

View attachment 766419

I appreciate your content too.

Two things: I never said its a good future fighter engine, just that it is a good replacement for the Owj on the Kowsar and F-5 fleet.
I'm also not talking about the current FJ33 but a scale up to FJ44 size + after burner.

This engine has just 3 axial compressor stages and a single centrifugal, all blisk. Single crystal turbine with high TBO.
It could easily become simply a more cost efficient engine (lifetime) if Iran wants to continue with the F-5 platform into the next decades.

Should Iran pursue the F-5 platform and such light fighters in general?
No, there I agree with you.
But if yes, then this might be a future with lower costs and more thrust and range.

 

[EvilWesteners]

I appreciate your content too.

Two things: I never said its a good future fighter engine, just that it is a good replacement for the Owj on the Kowsar and F-5 fleet.
I'm also not talking about the current FJ33 but a scale up to FJ44 size + after burner.

This engine has just 3 axial compressor stages and a single centrifugal, all blisk. Single crystal turbine with high TBO.
It could easily become simply a more cost efficient engine (lifetime) if Iran wants to continue with the F-5 platform into the next decades.

Should Iran pursue the F-5 platform and such light fighters in general?
No, there I agree with you.
But if yes, then this might be a future with lower costs and more thrust and range.

I make lots of assumptions, which I have no evidence to back it up, regarding Iran's budgeting, R&D, and even decision making process. Hence, I often have in the back of my mind, that they cannot take on multiple engine projects, multiple paths, multiple fighter/bomber developments, etc.

Iran has AND I KNOW THIS ONE FOR SURE, the know-how for single crystal blades, single piece fan blisks, and single piece welded (not machined) HP blisks. They can do all of that, - technologically. There are LOTS of things I don't know about what Iran can do, BUT THIS ONE, I know they can and they have, in certain capacities, and can even do more in the future since Iran has some exceptional engineers who understand the concept of "TRIAL AND ERROR" engineering and have access to the core knowledge. Then it is just a matter of time. You are very correct, they can DO this engine, sooner or later. Even up-rate to FJ44.

But can Iran do multiple projects? I believe not. Hopefully I am wrong.

I assume, Iran can only do one project, get it to a certain degree of success, hopefully as fast as possible, to also create a momentum for R&D, make some sales from it (to NAM countries), and get encouraged, and move to something higher.

Even India is stuck in the mud, in some cases, China. So I am trying to keep my expectations to a realistic level.

The most powerful FJ44 (not even considering FJ33), is still exceptionally under-powered. Cannot make it more powerful even with today's multi-stage SAP.

So you have a very good point there --- develop it, have the technology mature, get good with it, use it in small basic trainers, and possibly start to use the knowledge to build much larger engine in the level of AL31F. Your strategy of focusing on latest technology that has a good future and allows Iran to stay in touch (close enough) with the rest of the world, is fantastic idea. I agree 100%.

But Iran needs to focus on something much faster than this process that is most ideal, that everyone in this forum knows is necessary. Therefore, I suggested many times, since Iran cannot spend money on R&D of a single or even multiple engine platforms, one around 1,500-3,000 lbs thrust and one around 25,000-35,000 lbs thrust, then may be forgo one of them and stick to the one BEST suited to Iran's military circumstances, RIGHT NOW AND FOR THE NEXT FEW YEARS, until they have the funds and political backing.

I would love Iran to have 200 brand new F-5E upgrades with a single and twin 8,000 lbs thrust engines, that can carry 4 tons of weapons and 3 tons of fuel, max. Great for training, great of attrition during peace time, low cost, huge coverage, can land on a runway, can fly off mountain edges off of Persian Gulf for emergencies or special tactics, after being transported to the top with a CH53D externally, on a short high runway, etc. But what is the most practical?

At war time, Iran would need something at the level of much improved Mig 29 level - at the very minimum. In fact it can avoid war, deter, with even a large numbers of something in the same level of a brand new upgraded F4E (about 200+) simply to demonstrate war with Iran is not going to be a quick win. It will cost the adversary drastically, even if Iran loses eventually.

Of course, we all want Iran to have (at least I do) its own high end fighter jet. I just believe that takes a long time, and Iran needs something now and something quick, and a large engine is needed on a platform that Iran is familiar with.

I would divert all budgets (other than R&D) away from engine development for 2 years and devote, everything to designing around an existing platform that has a very high degree of success, based on known-knowns, and get Iran out of this situation.

U.S. and Israel now have access to all the information regarding how many ballistic missiles Iran has. They know 90% of where, what, how launched, facilities, etc. They know. Believe me, they know. They did not in December 2006 when George W. Bush asked Chief of Armed Forces for plans to attack Iran.

I understand that Iran is under INCREDIBLE amount of pressure. But they cannot make the same mistake as prior to WW1. That cost Iran so dearly. Iran lost 10,000,000 civilians as the British try so hard to hide the truth from the world.

Iran is making the same mistake. Deterrence should be the first goal. And it cannot be FAKED.

You have very good points, as usual. Thank you for your comments.

 

[jauk]

I make lots of assumptions, which I have no evidence to back it up, regarding Iran's budgeting, R&D, and even decision making process. Hence, I often have in the back of my mind, that they cannot take on multiple engine projects, multiple paths, multiple fighter/bomber developments, etc.

Iran has AND I KNOW THIS ONE FOR SURE, the know-how for single crystal blades, single piece fan blisks, and single piece welded (not machined) HP blisks. They can do all of that, - technologically. There are LOTS of things I don't know about what Iran can do, BUT THIS ONE, I know they can and they have, in certain capacities, and can even do more in the future since Iran has some exceptional engineers who understand the concept of "TRIAL AND ERROR" engineering and have access to the core knowledge. Then it is just a matter of time. You are very correct, they can DO this engine, sooner or later. Even up-rate to FJ44.

But can Iran do multiple projects? I believe not. Hopefully I am wrong.

I assume, Iran can only do one project, get it to a certain degree of success, hopefully as fast as possible, to also create a momentum for R&D, make some sales from it (to NAM countries), and get encouraged, and move to something higher.

Even India is stuck in the mud, in some cases, China. So I am trying to keep my expectations to a realistic level.

The most powerful FJ44 (not even considering FJ33), is still exceptionally under-powered. Cannot make it more powerful even with today's multi-stage SAP.

So you have a very good point there --- develop it, have the technology mature, get good with it, use it in small basic trainers, and possibly start to use the knowledge to build much larger engine in the level of AL31F. Your strategy of focusing on latest technology that has a good future and allows Iran to stay in touch (close enough) with the rest of the world, is fantastic idea. I agree 100%.

But Iran needs to focus on something much faster than this process that is most ideal, that everyone in this forum knows is necessary. Therefore, I suggested many times, since Iran cannot spend money on R&D of a single or even multiple engine platforms, one around 1,500-3,000 lbs thrust and one around 25,000-35,000 lbs thrust, then may be forgo one of them and stick to the one BEST suited to Iran's military circumstances, RIGHT NOW AND FOR THE NEXT FEW YEARS, until they have the funds and political backing.

I would love Iran to have 200 brand new F-5E upgrades with a single and twin 8,000 lbs thrust engines, that can carry 4 tons of weapons and 3 tons of fuel, max. Great for training, great of attrition during peace time, low cost, huge coverage, can land on a runway, can fly off mountain edges off of Persian Gulf for emergencies or special tactics, after being transported to the top with a CH53D externally, on a short high runway, etc. But what is the most practical?

At war time, Iran would need something at the level of much improved Mig 29 level - at the very minimum. In fact it can avoid war, deter, with even a large numbers of something in the same level of a brand new upgraded F4E (about 200+) simply to demonstrate war with Iran is not going to be a quick win. It will cost the adversary drastically, even if Iran loses eventually.

Of course, we all want Iran to have (at least I do) its own high end fighter jet. I just believe that takes a long time, and Iran needs something now and something quick, and a large engine is needed on a platform that Iran is familiar with.

I would divert all budgets (other than R&D) away from engine development for 2 years and devote, everything to designing around an existing platform that has a very high degree of success, based on known-knowns, and get Iran out of this situation.

U.S. and Israel now have access to all the information regarding how many ballistic missiles Iran has. They know 90% of where, what, how launched, facilities, etc. They know. Believe me, they know. They did not in December 2006 when George W. Bush asked Chief of Armed Forces for plans to attack Iran.

I understand that Iran is under INCREDIBLE amount of pressure. But they cannot make the same mistake as prior to WW1. That cost Iran so dearly. Iran lost 10,000,000 civilians as the British try so hard to hide the truth from the world.

Iran is making the same mistake. Deterrence should be the first goal. And it cannot be FAKED.

You have very good points, as usual. Thank you for your comments.

Many thanks. Can you touch on why Iran would need to invest ANY resource (short, medium, and long term) on conventional aircraft and instead divert that into better and better drone and precision missile systems? Also can you touch on who the adversary for these conventional aircraft would be? It seems clear as day to me that any investment would entirely wasteful.

 

[EvilWesteners]

Many thanks. Can you touch on why Iran would need to invest ANY resource (short, medium, and long term) on conventional aircraft and instead divert that into better and better drone and precision missile systems? Also can you touch on who the adversary for these conventional aircraft would be? It seems clear as day to me that any investment would entirely wasteful.

Very smart questions, my friend. No military on earth CAN IGNORE considering what you stated in your post.

Eisenhower use to say, in 1950s, "We won, because of logistics planning and organization".

Well, this is a double-edge sword for U.S. and they have to plan, plan, and plan. Almost the entire 4th floor I believe in Pentagon is (one way or the other) is allocated to "logistics and war planning". Iran should exploit this very carefully, and I think they can do that 1000 times better than a dumb person like me.

What I mean by this is: U.S. has a giant weakness and this is COST OVERRUNS. Outside military planning, this can be described as ... EVERYTHING IN U.S. MILITARY is unnecessarily expensive. AND there is a lot of WASTE.

In Iraq, Haliburton was given contracts for let's say, $36 per unit work for re-construction. They gave it to sub-contractors for $27 per unit work. These sub-contractors gave it to other sub-contractors, so forth and so on, until the actually work was given to the company that charged $8 per unit work to get the job done.

U.S. is a TOTAL WASTE BUCKET - they waste so much. 40% of food in U.S. gets wasted, (not even talk about the fuel that delivers the food) and never consumed while there are about 70,000 homeless people here in Seattle, I was in a soup kitchen cooking burgers in N.E. LA about a year ago, and 10% of the homeless people i was chatting with while cooking them a burger, were programmers and technical people, I was talking to a guy about ADA programming language used in U.S. defense applications, and we talked about object oriented CASE and CAST (computer aided software engineering and computer aided software testing using a supercomputer) . That's amazing to think about for a moment. In LA as in Seattle or SF, a software engineer gets about $130,000 (with his knowledge more like $200k+) but with one eviction notice because you got sick and could not pay your rent, and had medical bills, you could end up on the streets, no one will rent you a house or an apartment, or you have to go live somewhere that is dangerous and you will get mugged or killed. Listen to this one from Herald of Connecticut; HALF OF BANKRUPTCIES IN U.S. in 2016 was to do with medical bills for individuals that ACTUALLY HAD MEDICAL INSURANCE. A chemotherapy platinum pill with lots of chemical crap in it, costs about $3000 - PER PILL.

Everything in U.S. is EXPENSIVE and a WASTE. I can't mention the name of a company that I work for, but they waste $600m on a R&D project I am involved in (paid by appropriations committee in Congress behind closed doors for certain reasons) which the Brits can do for $6m. I know this is unbelievable for all of you here. But it is true. Everyone who gets profusely rich in U.S. in a very short time, is most probably involved in something that screws the American people out of their tax Dollars, for something that is totally over inflated. It's WILD WILD WEST again. Or may be it has always been. Zionists are getting rich like never before. (sorry off topic).

Hence, the answer to your question.

If Iran can make the COST OF WAR high enough for a country that spends $1b a day to be in state of status-quo in the middle east and knows they have to ramp up to $4b a day or even higher, there YOU HAVE DETERRENCE.

You are no doubt, one step ahead of me. You are thinking, but Iran is developing UAV/UCAV and cruise missiles.

Great point.

Recently U.S. has been TRYING (not succeeding though) to convince Iran that Iran's drone capabilities are worrying U.S. and Israel. Actually, this was a Pentagon disinformation strategy. They are not concerned with Iran's drone capabilities. They can smash it anytime they want in an actual war.

What U.S. is really worried about is a PROLONGED war with Iran which continues to PRESENT a threat to shipping via stand-off weapons delivered by even a crappy old fighter jet like F-4E. They also are worried about Iran's know-how regarding faster and faster air launched cruise missiles. Air launch offers a 1% strategic military advantage, but affects global cascade effect economic problems that is a 25% advantage if used correctly during war. Iran can ATTEMPT to economically suffocate U.S. and its allies. So far it has not.

U.S. has done one thing about Iran, as the Brits have tried to do with the rest of the world for hundreds of years ...

DENY

They want to deny Iran, strategic weapons assets that can force U.S. to calculate in its logistics a defensive solution for such assets of the adversary.

This is EXPENSIVE for U.S. and has to devote a lot of resources to protect so many adhoc assets and friendly countries, including Saudis, UAE, and others. Air launched weapons is a huge issue for U.S. that wants to deny Iran yet another CAPABILITY that they CURRENTLY NOT WORRY ABOUT.

As Iran STRETCHES U.S. further and further, via multiple capabilities, at some point U.S. is just not finding WAR AS A NEGOTIATION strategy, BECAUSE to U.S. --- WAR is a negotiation strategy, to Iran, is about injustice, vengeance, fighting for their rights and their pride, etc. For U.S. it is about getting Iran to submit and serve the MASTER.

Iran's ballistic missiles are finite, and the U.S. already has many things in place and to a certain degree, they believe they can manage it - IF THEY HAD TO. They know EXACTLY how Iran will launch its missiles and what they need to do so, and how much time U.S. has. All already calculated.

Iran went and developed BAVAR 373 - but still has not fielded in large enough quantities that concern U.S. and deter.

If Iran also builds, let's say, 250 brand new upgraded F-5E with TWO 8,000 thrust engines the same weight of J85, but instead with 16,000 lbs of total thrust instead of 10,000, with capability of carrying fuel in bolt-on fuel tanks, as well as air-to-ground missiles to hit say 100 targets in the Persian Gulf, now U.S. is worried about the economical consequences globally. Or, let's say Iran has 200 brand new upgraded F-4E with AL21 engines (17,500 lbs without afterburner), as opposed to J79 with 17,500ish lbs of thrust WITH afterburner - (f-4E uses about 600kg of fuel for take-off depending on weather condition, wind direction, air temperature, and elevation of the runway). NOW U.S. would have to REALLOCATE resources, RECALCULATE, redo logistics planning, allocated organization to prepare for yet ONE MORE THING they will be concerned with regards to hot war hostilities with Iran. THAT IS WHERE IRAN CAN USE ATTRITION TO WEAR U.S. DOWN.

IN REAL TERMS - Qasem Soleimani was murdered BECAUSE U.S. did not want to engage Iran in a REAL WAR. They are petrified of war with Iran. Further STRETCHING U.S. economically in their war planning, ENSURES that Iran can continue to PUSH MORE BUTTONS and hence get MORE CONCESSIONS from others that intend it harm, EVEN SOME supposed FRIENDS, like South Korea, INDIA and even CHINA AND RUSSIA who will NOW respect Iran's strength even more and count on it as a worthy ally against U.S. so Iran can use such leverage for its own goals.

PeeD has some great points, as always. Iran could use FJ33 and FJ44 development for the next 20 years of Iran's engine technology evolution, and even make money from export. This platform (although it may appear that is not that beneficial to Iran for its needs and is an over kill, since Iran already has J85 and can easily convert it to aft-fan turbo fan, (Iran's had this for 50 years with French military transport jet) or just use it as a non-afterburner platform, STILL A GREAT OPTION as it is a few generations ahead of J85.

An airborne fighter jet also gives Iran its additional strategy to bring in adversary air force, and finish them off with ground launch SAMS hidden in Iranian mountains. U.S. hated ambush strategies in Vietnam and one of the reasons why (apart from supply line) they dropped 580,000 bombs on Laos.

Iran needs to explore and exploit EVERYTHING THE WEST IS SCARED OF in a war situation with Iran. Airborne fighter jets capable of launching anti-ship missiles are SCARY to U.S. and Europe.

So, with all the details above, the brief answer to your question is:

Iran should utilize as many strategic capabilities as possible to DETER war from starting in the first place, and conventional fighter jets and bombers do have AND WILL CONTINUE to have a significant part in future conflicts, even if it has to be with top tier world powers. It can be used for cost-effective strike missions in the early hours of war, it will force the enemy to allocate more resources to protect more of its assets, and dilute its effectiveness, and potentially AVOID the scenarios which allow U.S. with its incredible resources to develop a SINGLE kill technology to make an entire weapons strategy (e.g. drones or cruise missiles) suddenly ineffective. A large and highly reputable and hugely funded U.S. defense company is working on satellite based technology right now that makes drones far less effective in the near future.

Why was Sweden not attacked in WW2 by either side for its huge strategic advantage offering?

Thank you for your comments. Have a great weekend my friend.

 

[SalarHaqq]

Of course, we all want Iran to have (at least I do) its own high end fighter jet. I just believe that takes a long time, and Iran needs something now and something quick, and a large engine is needed on a platform that Iran is familiar with.

I would divert all budgets (other than R&D) away from engine development for 2 years and devote, everything to designing around an existing platform that has a very high degree of success, based on known-knowns, and get Iran out of this situation.

U.S. and Israel now have access to all the information regarding how many ballistic missiles Iran has. They know 90% of where, what, how launched, facilities, etc. They know. Believe me, they know. They did not in December 2006 when George W. Bush asked Chief of Armed Forces for plans to attack Iran.

I understand that Iran is under INCREDIBLE amount of pressure. But they cannot make the same mistake as prior to WW1. That cost Iran so dearly. Iran lost 10,000,000 civilians as the British try so hard to hide the truth from the world.

Iran is making the same mistake. Deterrence should be the first goal. And it cannot be FAKED.

You have very good points, as usual. Thank you for your comments.

If I may comment and ask a question about a particular aspect of your assessment (with all respect I owe and effectively have for you, of course): let's assume, as you say, that the enemy is meanwhile well informed about the numbers of Iranians ballistic missiles, as well as the launch methods and locations of dedicated missile facilities etc. However, aren't fighter jets, by their very essence, easier to locate in case of a war - unless of course Iran intends to bury them in the sand like Saddam did in 1990, instead of actually putting them to use against the aggressor? Because static air bases - precondition for the deployment of an air force, are surely as easy to detect for the enemy, as underground missile bases or storage facilities, aren't they?

In which case we'd be forced to conclude that considerable investment in upgrading the air force will offer no advantage over ballistic missiles as far as its survivability against enemy strikes is concerned. Is there not sort of a logical issue in postulating that because the enemy has improved its data on the numbers and on the locations of facilities related to Iran's BM power, the solution to this would reside in complementing these missiles with a jazzed up air force, air force which will depend on air bases that are, by definition, even easier for the enemy to identify...?

Naturally, when it comes to how well they really are informed about Iran's BM arsenal, I for one can't do anything but guesswork. If I was to give my opinion, I'd believe they're still groping in the dark to some extent and that they'd still be met by a number of surprises in case of a war. This being Iran's top strategic deterrence asset, I can imagine it will also enjoy top priority in terms of how well classified information pertaining to it will be protected. The IRGC should be capable of shielding at least some of its most prized secrets from the preying eyes of Iran's enemies and of assorted local traitors and spies, given that it will concentrate its very best capability on hermetically sealing any and all forms of undesired access to said data.

That said, even if the enemy's situational awareness about numbers and locations of missile-related facilities has grown significant, I would also wager that Iran will have deliberately spread out up to individual missiles across her 1.6 million square kilometers of territory, rather than massing them all inside a limited number of storage facilities. This, paired with a huge number of decoys should go a long way in making it much more difficult for potential aggressors.

As for Iran's buried container launchers, provided they are truly spread out and placed at a great distance one from each other, then even if their locations were known to the enemy, how is it going to effectively strike them all?

Finally, what about Iran's road mobile TEL's? If Iran did the right thing and manufactured not thousands but well over ten thousand of them, along with several times that number of decoys, to my understanding there's little the enemy could do to neutralize these assets. Please correct me if I'm wrong, I'd be surprised if they were able to track and monitor at all times and all over Iran's mountainous terrain, say 20.000 TEL vehicles made to look like ordinary civilian trucks, in addition to successfully distinguishing these from some 80.000 decoys for example... Is it not?

Many thanks again for your thought provoking and insightful contributions.

 

[Blue In Green]

If I may comment and ask a question about a particular aspect of your assessment (with all respect I owe and effectively have for you, of course): let's assume, as you say, that the enemy is meanwhile well informed about the numbers of Iranians ballistic missiles, as well as the launch methods and locations of dedicated missile facilities etc. However, aren't fighter jets, by their very essence, easier to locate in case of a war - unless of course Iran intends to bury them in the sand like Saddam did in 1990, instead of actually using them against the aggressor? Surely air bases - precondition for the deployment of an air force, are at least as easy to identify for the enemy, than underground missile bases or storage facilities, aren't they?

In which case we'd be forced to conclude that considerable investment in upgrading the air force will offer no advantage over ballistic missiles insofar as its survivability against enemy strikes is concerned. Is there not sort of a logical issue in postulating that because the enemy now has improved data on numbers and location of facilities related to Iran's BM's, the solution to this would reside in complementing the missiles with a jazzed up air force, which will depend on air bases that are by definition even easier for the enemy to identify?

Naturally, I can only do guesswork as to how well they really are informed about Iran's BM arsenal. If I was to give my opinion, I'd still believe they're groping in the dark to some extent and that they'd still be met by a number of surprises in case of a war. For this being Iran's top strategic deterrence asset, I can imagine it will also enjoy top priority in terms of protecting classified information. The IRGC should be capable of shielding at least some of its most prized secrets from the preying eyes of Iran's enemies and of assorted local traitors and spies, given that it will concentrate its very best capability on making them inaccessible.

That said, even if the enemy's situational awareness about numbers and locations of missile-related facilities is significant, I would also wager that Iran will have deliberately spread out up to individual missiles across her 1.6 million square kilometers of territory, rather than massing them all inside a limited number of storage facilities. This, paired with a huge number of decoys should go a long way in making it much more difficult for potential aggressors.

As for Iran's buried container launchers, provided they are truly spread out and placed at a great distance one from another, then even if their locations were known to the enemy, how is it going to effectively strike them all?

Finally, what about Iran's road mobile TEL's? If Iran did the right thing and manufactured not thousands but well over ten thousand of them, along with several times that number of decoys, to my understanding there's little the enemy could do to neutralize this. Please correct me if I'm wrong. I'd be surprised if they were able to track and monitor at all times all over Iran's mountainous terrain, say 20.000 TEL vehicles made to look like ordinary civilian trucks, in addition to successfully distinguishing these from some 80.000 decoys for example... Is it not?

Many thanks again for your thought provoking and insightful contributions.

I think I'll chime in a little bit with the limited knowledge I know on this.

As for Iran's buried container launchers, provided they are truly spread out and placed at a great distance one from another, then even if their locations were known to the enemy, how is it going to effectively strike them all?

If there were to be a strike on an IRGC aerospace forces missile farms and BM bases, then they'd have to use cost effective weaponry depending on the stage of freedom of operation/movement they're in during the conflict.

If it's the opening stages of a conflict: Ideally America would want to penetrate Irans IAD network using their most sophisticated planes (F22, F35, B2s etc..), firing from subs and destroyers, launching concise strikes utilizing tactical level nukes in order to pacify the larger bases as well as strike the general area of the missile farms in order to take out as many missiles as they can. One of the biggest reasons why Iran is building so many sprawling military instillations in the mountains in due directly because of the threat of nuclear weapons being used right on the onset of a conflict.

Naturally mountains (if built into correctly) provide substantial protection against nuclear attacks and can withstand several blows. Thus allowing for the base to fire off most or the entirety of its stock before being abandoned/vacated etc... This methodology carries on with Iran's other smaller and coastal missile facilities which all rely heavily on passive protection from the Earth itself.

Unlike America, Israel and the other puppet states which are heavily dependent on a hermetic style of defense (layers of ABM, multiple batteries, CIWS, multi-billion dollar jets that protect their skies, radars on-top of radars). Iran doesn't have the budget nor air-force to defend their skies as reliably so they went underground when it comes to strategic assets.

So naturally, at least in this regard, Iran should be able to fire off the vast majority of its missile stock during the opening stages of any conflict. Israel will be effectively paralyzed as a nation and American military footprint in the region will be immensely damaged. Their (American and Co.) entire shtick is large, expansive and expensive to run air-fields and ports. If they sustain enough damage, then they can't allow the American military machine to operate as effectively; but then comes in the inevitable Diego Garcia argument (which is fine) but I think or hope that Iran has produced a yet to be unveiled BM that reach Diego Garcia reliably enough to destroy key installations there which in this case would be reliant on just how many Ballistic Missiles Iran has produced overall. Dubious at best i know, but still I hope this is the case. As Diego Garcia will be where America stages its B52s to launch massive air-strikes against any important Iranian target.

The subject of just how many missiles Iran has (the important ones) has been somewhat a point of contention for many on here. My own personal 'feeling', if you will, is that Iran sits on around ~5,000 - 8,000 missiles of various makes and types. But for a more conservative estimate, we can say 3,000 - 4,000. This is still an insanely high number given the mission these missiles will be carrying out. IRGC BM strategy will not target solely military targets, as it's beyond clear that Iran intends to dismantle regional attacking nations and deprive them of their ability to function as a country if the conflict gets to that stage. Destruction of power-stations, water desalination plants, ports, oil-refineries (nuclear option essentially) and the like will be under consideration and for smaller nation or puppet nations that rely heavily on imports and water. This sort of action imposes a heavy cost and certainly adds to the reason why Iran hasn't had a war waged on it in as of yet.

If Iran did the right thing and manufactured not thousands but well over ten thousand of them, along with several times that number of decoys, to my understanding there's little the enemy could do to neutralize this.

Your understanding of this is correct, if Iran's TEL fleet is indeed massive and many of the vehicles are disguised as civilian or are decoys. Then any action the opposing force takes to mitigate/neutralize this threat will have little effect during the opening stages of a conflict.