Iranian Chill Thread

[Mehdipersian]

 

[Hormuz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724560720065396868

US strike against alleged “Iranian Quds force headquarters” in Syria 2 days ago.

IRGC training facility

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724560722934305257

Didn't Iran order to leave all the headquaters and bases at the beginning of the war?

 

[HGV]

Didn't Iran order to leave all the headquaters and bases at the beginning of the war?

That was probably not a public order so how would we know?

These strikes look like they hit ammo depots but there's no evidence that Iranians were killed

IRGC's presence in Syria is too large to just withdraw immediately

 

[Stryker1982]

Depends on detection. You are talking less than 8 mins of flight time with likely maybe 5 mins of that in exo state.

If you can jettison 2nd stage early and your RV is probably radar shaped it makes detection more difficult.

Arrow 3 is unique in that the range is 2400KM so it can in theory cover a wide field of protection versus Patriot and THAAD.

There's probably those offshore platforms that allow for tracking BMs somewhere in the red sea. They'll catch it pretty quickly, and be able to launch shortly before it reaches it's apex. Won't take long for it to reach it afterwards.

I recall when I was playing with that military simulator, most of the missiles that were launched from Iran were being intercepted between Jordan & Iraq with the Arrow-3.

My point was that if it was just the Patriot alone, by the time the Rezvan warhead was in the engagement envelope of the Patriot, it might be too fast for high PK by design. We've seen it cut through Patriots before.

Few batteries don’t matter given the range. They have at least 50-100 interceptors given the unit cost of $3M/interceptor and economics of scales it makes sense to build more interceptors to reduce overall program costs.

My point is that they lose on attrition no matter what.

Unlikely that Houthi’s will ever reach that rate of production. It would be surprising if they even have more than 150 long range BMs (2000KMs) in stockpile.

Yemen is under blockade you have to remember.

Theirs been a lul in the war with SA for a year now, with no launches, and clever leader would be building some stocks during peace time.

That was more of an ideal scenario I'd hope for than an expectation. To force consumption of Arrow-3 interceptors. I think they don't trust their Arrow-2/s and Patriots to deal with Rezvan. If they were confident I think they'd conserve Arrow-3, and use Patriots instead.

That was probably not a public order so how would we know?

These strikes look like they hit ammo depots but there's no evidence that Iranians were killed

IRGC's presence in Syria is too large to just withdraw immediately

We just assume because it's the most obvious move, to avoid lingering around potential targets due to unexpected regional issues.

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724834328582951387

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724829963910512872

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724792781338821029

 

[Hormuz]

That was probably not a public order so how would we know?

These strikes look like they hit ammo depots but there's no evidence that Iranians were killed

IRGC's presence in Syria is too large to just withdraw immediately

i am sure that in the first days of the war i read it somewhere. i ll try to find the source

 

[TheImmortal]

There's probably those offshore platforms that allow for tracking BMs somewhere in the red sea. They'll catch it pretty quickly, and be able to launch shortly before it reaches it's apex. Won't take long for it to reach it afterwards.

Satellites using AI detect much faster than ships. Curvature of earth can prevent detection during launch phase if you’re using traditional ground based sensors. Would need to use OTH radars.

I recall when I was playing with that military simulator, most of the missiles that were launched from Iran were being intercepted between Jordan & Iraq with the Arrow-3.

My point was that if it was just the Patriot alone, by the time the Rezvan warhead was in the engagement envelope of the Patriot, it might be too fast for high PK by design. We've seen it cut through Patriots before.

Two different systems. Patriot is endo. Arrow is exo. Arrow is more like THAAD. The difference is Arrow uses a BM to shoot down another BM hence the range and capability.

My point is that they lose on attrition no matter what.

This trying to bankrupt Israel strategy is perplexing. So now victory is when Israel spends money?

The double standard logic on this board is ironic.

I guess Israel can say the same about the 500 strikes on Iranian assets in Syria with no retribution: “iran loses on attrition no matter what”.

But wait no, everyone here says the strikes are useless and won’t change anything. That nothing substantial is lost, etc etc cope cope

But suddenly Israel using 5 or 10 or 30 interceptors is some strategic loss. Israel is about to get the entire yearly Iranian military budget handed to it by the US.

Trying to make Israel broke ain’t going to work. And if you cheerlead Israeli equipment losses don’t forget Iran’s in Syria the last 10 years.

Theirs been a lul in the war with SA for a year now, with no launches, and clever leader would be building some stocks during peace time.

It would be surprising if Iran builds 100 long range BMs in a month let alone the poorest country in the Arab world.

Houthi’s aren’t going to build more BMs per month than Russia. Let’s be real.

That was more of an ideal scenario I'd hope for than an expectation. To force consumption of Arrow-3 interceptors. I think they don't trust their Arrow-2/s and Patriots to deal with Rezvan. If they were confident I think they'd conserve Arrow-3, and use Patriots instead.

Again exo vs endo. Much safer to intercept in exo than try to stop a Mach 6 warhead with 2 mins to impact.

Didn't Iran order to leave all the headquaters and bases at the beginning of the war?

And Iranian officials have a tendency to ignore precautions see:

• Solemani
• Tehrani Moghadam
• Fakhrizadeh

And you can only empty so many areas without impacting operations. Likely higher rank IRGC personnel are being told to operate from safe houses or reduce exposure to potential target areas, but your average officer isn’t being told to stay away. Business as usual for those grunts.

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724850908591276407

 

[Stryker1982]

Satellites using AI detect much faster than ships. Curvature of earth can prevent detection during launch phase if you’re using traditional ground based sensors. Would need to use OTH radars.

Fair.

Two different systems. Patriot is endo. Arrow is exo. Arrow is more like THAAD. The difference is Arrow uses a BM to shoot down another BM hence the range and capability.

Bro I know that. That's why I made a distinction between them : )

This trying to bankrupt Israel strategy is perplexing. So now victory is when Israel spends money?

The double standard logic on this board is ironic.

I guess Israel can say the same about the 500 strikes on Iranian assets in Syria with no retribution: “iran loses on attrition no matter what”.

But wait no, everyone here says the strikes are useless and won’t change anything. That nothing substantial is lost, etc etc cope cope

But suddenly Israel using 5 or 10 or 30 interceptors is some strategic loss. Israel is about to get the entire yearly Iranian military budget handed to it by the US.

Trying to make Israel broke ain’t going to work. And if you cheerlead Israeli equipment losses don’t forget Iran’s in Syria the last 10 years.

Lol what are you talking about. You mis-interpret my point. I'm not talking about money, I presume they have infinite money always. I'm talking about the number of interceptors and production rate. The time it takes for them to build 1 interceptor is long no matter how much money they have.

Iran can produce a Ghadr (Rezvan type) much faster than they would produce an Arrow-3 interceptor. I'm not talking about money here. Thiers a certain point where you'd defeat defences based on volume alone. That's always been part of our strategy. We build missile for mass-production, we are probably the one country that builds missiles as barebones as possible to increase production rate and stockpiling.

I figured this was basically infered. They can't compete.

Again exo vs endo. Much safer to intercept in exo than try to stop a Mach 6 warhead with 2 mins to impact.

Yeah that's why I made the distinction. Because I'm aware of those major differences, they don't trust the Patriots and Arrow-2 enough to deal with Rezvan at it's high Terminal velocity, so they prefer Arrow-3 to deal with it when it's at its most vulnerable.

It would be surprising if Iran builds 100 long range BMs in a month let alone the poorest country in the Arab world.

Houthi’s aren’t going to build more BMs per month than Russia. Let’s be real.

Not building, but transferring Ghadr/NK engines to Houthis from old stocks. I wonder how they get their fuel though.

 

[Dariush the Great]

And Iranian officials have a tendency to ignore precautions see:

''Ignore'' ? Or you mean wanting to become ''Shahid'' by ignoring those sissy protocols?

 

[tsunset]

''Ignore'' ? Or you mean wanting to become ''Shahid'' by ignoring those sissy protocols?

 

[Hormuz]

 

[Sineva]

View attachment 1019612

Ahh you gotta love the internet,nothing you post is ever forgotten it seems.