Iranian Chill Thread

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1723799741174337602

 

[tsunset]

The war against Hezbollah will begin in full pretty soon.

Lots of escalation recently.

Hezbollah is prepared, Israel is not

Iran holds the escalation ladder, not Israel. Iran can decide wether Israel should be purified using brute force or not.

If they happen to bomb Lebanon with F-16s, they should prepare to recieve hundreds of BMs via QF instructions.

A purification of Israel is the only solution.

 

[tsunset]

At some point the U.S. and Isra"el" have calculated not only that they will, but that they can destroy HezbAllah and dismantle Iran's proxy network. Something tells me that the military establishment had this particular strategy in place back in 2020, and the first thing they did toward the implementation of this was killing General Soleimani. They wagered that the proxies under his command, with his level of military human capital, would be hard to destroy. It seems they assessed Esmael Gha'ani and reached the conclusion that his "just rolled out of bed" look indeed translates to a similar lack of competence and strategic alertness in the mind.

This means they have confidently reached the conclusion that it is within reach to destroy HezbAllah and the Iraqi militias, as well as the Bashar Assad government. Hence the massive buildup of carrier strike groups, the mobilization of half a million Lie-DF grunts, the massive aid package sent to Isra"el", the positioning of THAAD and Patriot systems throughout the region. Under the leadership of more competent staff, Iran managed to hold off the final domino in their neoconservative agenda, the destruction of Iran. Now, they are playing that mission out right before the world's eyes. The bravery and stiff resistance on display is to the credit of only Palestinians and Lebanese, because strategically, Iran overplayed its hand and performed badly, losing much of its credibility. Now Iran must struggle to salvage what it can of its deterrent network, and I say again, if Iran had no nukes at the start of all this, then the Islamic Republic made the biggest mistake of its history. If the Islamic Republic's strategists were smart, the Palestinians would not be experiencing genocide right now, HezbAllah would not be existentially threatened, and this massive buildup of carrier strike groups near Iran and Lebanon would not have occurred. Iran screwed up, and it's evident. "Gandesh ro dar aavordan".



I have a different read on this situation, however. Last week there was a lot going around about Biden administration assessing that Netanyahoo's career is over. They were actively looking to back others. Today, Netanyahoo is the only one with cold feet about invading Lebanon, while that mongoloid Gallant and Kahanist filth Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are pushing for an invasion of Lebanon and even suggesting forceful removal of Netanyahoo. To me, this says the U.S. has picked one of these two ghouls to take the mantle of leading the genocidal Jewish state. It seems Netanyahoo's cold feet is justified as he knows a war with HezbAllah will be longer and more costly to Isra"el"i population, and he knows he is running on fumes with respect to political capital. He knows any failures would be attributed to him and "dakhlesh miyaad" as we say. I don't think it's good for the Resistance; the fact that they are preparing to invade Lebanon to me shows that the U.S. and Isra"el" have reviewed options and decided it's possible, probable, and necessary.

It also seems that Hamas' leadership is in disarray and the beginning of the end is here. Central command and control is all but gone, with Hamas groups now fighting as decentralized, locally commanded units without a central focus or strategy. Hamas rocket fire has all but ended. And Hamas is repeatedly trying to negotiate hostage release and cease fire. It's safe to say Hamas' days are numbered and despite the stiff resistance, it's the end for them. This is important to realize because without this, the U.S. would not have greenlighted the Lie-DF going into Lebanon.

Nagging, crap with a troll secondary accounts making nagging essays for saying nothing at the end, there are a lot of screenshots to take so the naggers will be exposed at the right time, you seem to not live in the same world as the real one, where do you inform yourself? On i24News?

 

[Blue In Green]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1723872027650773150

Times really have changed.

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1723863447580881218

https://twitter.com/x/status/1723880194799272008

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1723836551849726030

 

[SalarHack]

Hezbollah is prepared, Israel is not

Iran holds the escalation ladder, not Israel. Iran can decide wether Israel should be purified using brute force or not.

If they happen to bomb Lebanon with F-16s, they should prepare to recieve hundreds of BMs via QF instructions.

A purification of Israel is the only solution.

See, this is why you shouldn't be taken seriously. Reading your posts is like watching that fat greasy pepperoni Hossein Salami talk about how one "glorious" fart from the direction of the Sepah will liquefy Isra"el" and drive the Jews back to Europe. Do you believe your own bullshit? Are you capable of realism at all?

We will have to see how the Lie-DF fares in Lebanon. It's possible, very possible, that they will incur significant losses and possibly not achieve much in terms of strategic objectives. It has happened twice already with HezbAllah. However, Hamas is in deep trouble. In the past two days, the Lie-DF has made advances despite the tank casualties and has managed to take out enough Hamas commanders that the group no longer fights with a central command, but as decentralized units under the command of their local commanders. This is very important, because it allows the Lie-DF to split Hamas units off from one another and isolate them. This is why most analysts are saying this marks the beginning of the end in Gaza. It is also widely known that U.S. special forces are on the ground helping the Lie-DF. Given the incompetence of Lie-DF, it's likely these decapitations were done by U.S. special forces. Do not kid yourself; this is why NasrAllah is escalating. Because Hamas needs to regroup and centralize, or Gaza is lost.

Iran is retaliating throughout the Shi'a crescent, for sure. However, there is a cap on this escalation as now both the Persian Gulf and Mediterranean Sea are infested with U.S. and E.U. navy units. When Isra"el" invades Lebanon, these ships will come in extra handy in bombardment as a force multiplier. It would certainly not be enough for the Lie-AF as previous wars have shown, but the USN can strike strategic points and HezbAllah fortifications/logistics, while the Lie-AF does what it does best, bombing civilians to turn them against HezbAllah. Iran does not have the advantage you think it has. It's too early to tell, but sans Hamas' need for relief, both sides have options. Don't count your chickens before they hatch, you imbecile.

Looking at the battlefield rationally and not underestimating the opposing force are virtues needed for accurate assessment of military matters. You aren't doing this. You are akin to a drunk hooligan or a basketball cheerleader. It might be nice from time to time to hear a chest-thumping true believer talk about how powerful Iran is, but if you get high on that, you'll have an unrealistic grasp of what's going on and will be surprised when a weakness is exploited.

In other words, this discussion is entirely beyond your pay grade.

A big difference can be noticed by anyone.

Before 7/23, Israelis were acting as "1 Israeli death = 100 arab deaths", today Hezbollah neutralizes zionist at a daily basis, there isn't even 100 HZ deaths yet

Way back ago this was "1 Israeli death = 10 bombs dropped on Iran" and "US should intercept Iranian ballistic missile tests from PG"

The difference is noticeable, Israel should be mauled and lynched into a counter-holocaust if it dares touching Lebanon

See, comments like this make me think you are either a child or one of those poor people who joined the Basij for benefits. You lack the sophistication of actual Iran supporters who know what they are talking about, so you resort to these bellicose statements such as "counter-holocaust". I'd like to remind you that alcohol is poison and you should try your hand at other methods to ease your anxiety.

 

[SalarHack]

The war against Hezbollah will begin in full pretty soon.

Lots of escalation recently.

Yes, it seems inevitable at this point. From what I understand, Netanyahoo is the one with cold feet here and Ben-Gvir has even called for his forceful removal. The old lazy-eyed, slack-jawed imbecile trusted the worst snakes in his country and will get his due. The problem here is, a government run by the likes of Smotrich, Shaked and Ben-Gvir, backed by the U.S.- which it's starting to seem like a possibility- will quadruple the rate of genocide and actually try to occupy Lebanon and parts of Syria.

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1723872027650773150

Times really have changed.

Baloney. This stuff is leaked out of purpose for psychops. The military has no bias. They present options listed from limited to most aggressive and give risks and reward to each. Trump himself admitted this when told the military to build a Solemani response and wait for his order when the red lines are crossed.

The military chief of staff usually gives his opinion. How come the Pentagon wasn’t clamoring for war with Iran after Al Assad attack? It was the most pro war Pentagon since Cheney and Powell were in power.

How come General Mark Miley had to talk trump out of war with Iran? What happened then? Pentagon balls were in their purse?

Fake ops. Pentagon knows the cost of war with Iran better than anyone in Washington, they hold the confidential war simulations results. They have countless AI backed supercomputers running probability scenarios. They have tech that makes Chat GPT 4.0 look like child’s play. Remember the internet was invented by the military. And military is usually 10-20 years ahead civilian sector. So whatever AI you see these tech companies bragging about: military had it years earlier in some form.

 

[Oldman1]

Conventional forces to overthrow Iran? No. Don’t exist in reality. Saddam couldn’t even break the Iranian border region with a 1M man army and one of the biggest military forces on earth (at the time) in 1980’s.

There is near zero chance any foreign power could successfully land invade Iran. You would need more than 1M soldiers maybe as high as 2M. Iran is a massive mountainous country with its cities located in mountain terrain and a large armed forces + militia (Basij) to back them up. This makes land invasion a political non stater for USA.

Now on the nuclear end there is a risk (for Iran). Regarding the point I made above where a global power like US also realizes the futility of land invasion option, would try to make Iran surrender using the same rationale/justification as nuclear strikes on Japan. (i.e. That the invasion of Japan would have been too costly on both sides and that nuclear strikes saved more lives and kept devastation minimized)

Now the chance that US would do pre-emptive nuclear strikes on Iranian military assets and leadership to cause unilateral surrender is very very low —as long as nuclear weapons stay in Pandora’s box and MAD doctrine is upheld by all nuclear powers. The second it is broken —every country with nukes or close to nukes will be ready to use it at a moments notice ie a Global Cold War.

So US does not have the conventional tools to change Iran in any menagonfil way. If they did, 2020 Trump and the neocons had the greenlight after Al-Assad Missile attack to conduct a “shock and awe 2.0” and yet they didn’t.

Who says anything about overthrowing Iran? Just punish Iran hitting its infrastructure and destroy their bases in retaliation. Thousands of Iranian soldiers will be killed in matter of days. It just depends on Iran and what their plans are especially with Israel. So far its threats and trying to force the U.S. to stop Israel from keep on bombing Gaza. That tells you something. I mean what's stopping Iran from intervening?

 

[Blue In Green]

Baloney. This stuff is leaked out of purpose for psychops. The military has no bias. They present options listed from limited to most aggressive and give risks and reward to each. Trump himself admitted this when told the military to build a Solemani response and wait for his order when the red lines are crossed.

The military chief of staff usually gives his opinion. How come the Pentagon wasn’t clamoring for war with Iran after Al Assad attack? It was the most pro war Pentagon since Cheney and Powell were in power.

How come General Mark Miley had to talk trump out of war with Iran? What happened then? Pentagon balls were in their purse?

Fake ops. Pentagon knows the cost of war with Iran better than anyone in Washington, they hold the confidential war simulations results. They have countless AI backed supercomputers running probability scenarios. They have tech that makes Chat GPT 4.0 look like child’s play. Remember the internet was invented by the military. And military is usually 10-20 years ahead civilian sector. So whatever AI you see these tech companies bragging about: military had it years earlier in some form.

A wider conflict seems like something Biden himself wouldn’t want to be involved in (nor interested) naturally. So the essence of this article isn’t exactly wrong.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1723956294368076052

These sorts of developments aren’t conducive to any sort of positive geopolitical change. If Europe needlessly ratchets up pressure and continues act as America’s lapdog. We can well and truly kiss any future détente goodbye.

 

[Blue In Green]

Who says anything about overthrowing Iran? Just punish Iran hitting its infrastructure and destroy their bases in retaliation. Thousands of Iranian soldiers will be killed in matter of days. It just depends on Iran and what their plans are especially with Israel. So far its threats and trying to force the U.S. to stop Israel from keep on bombing Gaza. That tells you something. I mean what's stopping Iran from intervening?

Neither side wants war, that’s the key takeaway here.

Falling into “who kills X amount more of people” and destroys “such and such” type of argument doesn’t matter when we know the cost will be high and felt by everyone in someway.

U.S. armed forces in Syria: Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain and whatever PG Nation are vulnerable to immediate attacks as well. They will also die in the thousands in a matter of days.

It’s important to note here that Iran still operates under a martyrdom ideology and can absorb more losses compared to a much more risk averse American society that doesn’t accept high casualty rates anymore; especially if the war isn’t wanted to begin with. How long will it last before Americans say "wtf is going?!" and demand answers or an end to hostilies?

Thus far, both countries have laid down their respective “red lines” but haven’t jumped the gun so to speak.

It is in both America's and Iran's best interest to not directly get involved and I think they know this intimately. Iran doesn't want to waste away all the progress it has made and the U.S. cannot risk squandering the remaining hegemony it has left in yet another Middle Eastern quagmire that doesn't have a clear end.

P.S.: "Asia Pivot" looks to be a doomed project.

 

[MyNameAintJeff]

5 U.S. Special Operations Troops Killed in Helicopter Crash in Mediterranean

The troops were on a refueling training mission when the aircraft crashed off the coast of Cyprus. The episode, which Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III said was an accident, is under investigation.

www.nytimes.com

5 ZOGbots have died in the eastern Mediterranean in a helicopter crash

 

[Blue In Green]

Hezbollah is prepared, Israel is not

Iran holds the escalation ladder, not Israel. Iran can decide wether Israel should be purified using brute force or not.

If they happen to bomb Lebanon with F-16s, they should prepare to recieve hundreds of BMs via QF instructions.

A purification of Israel is the only solution.

So far Hezbollah has shown exceptional battlefield implementation of ATGMs as a Swiss-Army-knife of sorts.

They’ve blown up very expensive Israeli ISR assets on the border and are continuing to blind the IDF as days and weeks go by. This sets up Hezbollah for extensive commando operations into Israel if ever the need arises.

It’s a tough spot for Israel since any significant escalation will be met in kind as we’ve seen (sorta kinda). One thing we know for sure is that Hezbollah and Israel are indeed in a state of war but not all-out.

America seems to be in the region just for window dressing and “support” of which is thus far relegated to intelligence gathering and surveillance.

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724022822408737272

https://twitter.com/x/status/1723999234679091297

https://twitter.com/x/status/1723938102916383014