Iranian Chill Thread

thesaint · Nov 8, 2023

https://twitter.com/x/status/1721994627580924228

https://twitter.com/x/status/1721995350842499287

Stryker1982 · Nov 8, 2023

GWXP said:
Lets analyze potential US-Iran war.

What US conventional military can do to Iran?

US NAVY:

If US Navy stays in the Persian Gulf, with high probability, their ships will experience the fate of Russian cruiser Moskva. In the event of war, US Navy will have to leave the Persian Gulf and operate from the coast of Oman beyond the range of Iranian anti-ship cruise missiles, anti-ship ballistic missiles and drones. Also the Straight of Hormuz will be closed with Iranian mines, missiles and drones.

If US Navy has to operate from the coast of Oman then F-18 can’t reach Tehran. Assuming US Navy concentrates 7-8 aircraft carrier battle groups, that is equal to 700 F-18 combat aircrafts and F-18 has a combat radius of only 800kms.

F-18 will have to fly 900kms from Arabian Sea to Qatari airspace, make aerial refueling there, and then enter Iranian airspace, and with combat radius of only 800kms they can only bomb southern and central Iran. Greater Tehran region which is home to 20% of Iran’s population and 50% of Iran’s industry will be beyond the range of F-18.
View attachment 970254
While making sorties to Iran, F-18s will have to make two aerial refuelings which will put strain on aerial refueling tankers, and also huge distances will reduce the total number of sorties by each F-18.

Iran claims to have 1500km range anti-ship ballistic missile. It is possible that Russian and Chinese satellites and Iranian patrol drones will try to locate US Navy in the Arabian Sea and if US vessels are located, they can be targeted by Iranian 1500km range anti-ship ballistic missiles.

US AIR FORCE:

It will take couple of weeks for US Air Force to deploy to airfields of Saudi Arabia, which has 25-30 airbases and civilian airports. However most of their airfields are located only 300km away from Iran, Iraq, Yemen and are vulnerable to strikes by cheap kamikaze drones and short-range ballistic missiles. These bases must be evacuated and combat aircrafts must be deployed to far away located bases beyond the range of Iran’s large arsenal of short-range ballistic missiles and drones.
View attachment 970262
There are roughly 13-15 airbases and airports in central and western Saudi Arabia which are located 700km-1200km away from Iran and its clients. These airfields will have to house roughly 1500 combat aircrafts, which means 100 combat aircrafts per base.

There are no hardened shelters in Saudi airbases and US aircrafts will be parked like this:
View attachment 970264
These aircrafts will be vulnerable to strikes by ballistic missiles with cluster warheads, cheap kamikaze drones and cruise missiles.

Against 1500 combat aircrafts, Iran can use 1500 medium and long range ballistic missiles, 600-800 cruise missiles and thousands of Shahed-136/Arash-2 kamikaze drones. Even if Iranian strikes will be 30% effective, US will lose hundreds of aircrafts and will not be able to conduct effective air campaign.

Russia and China will provide real-time targeting data to Iran from their satellites.

Most of aircrafts of US Air Force are F-16s that have a combat radius of only 540km. F-16s will have to make multiple aerial refuelings for reaching Western and Southern Iran, while Greater Tehran region and Mashhad will be beyond the range of F-16s.

Iran can use its kamikaze drones/cruise missiles/ballistic missiles to target fuel depots, aerial refueling tankers, transport aircrafts, weapon storage facilities and runways for the purpose of paralyzing US Air Force (with Russia and China providing precise targeting data from their satellites).

Also both US Navy and US Air Force have to establish air superiority by suppressing Iranian air defense systems. 3rd Khordad is 15 years, 15th Khordad is 10 years and Bavar 373 is 8 years in mass production, so there might be multilayered air defense network in Iran.

US GROUND FORCE AND MARINE CORP:

It can take 3 weeks for Iran to concentrate 200.000 troops and 1500 tanks in Khuzestan province and attack 1-2 armored brigades US has in Kuwait. Iran can invade Kuwait and create threat to Saudi oil fields, while Shias in Bahrain and Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia will rebel against local governments.

In the previous Gulf Wars it took 6 month for US ground force to arrive to the region. However, this time Iran will close the Straight of Hormuz, while Houthis will close the Bab-el-Mandeb Straight with drones, cruise and ballistic missiles.

Since Straight of Hormuz will be closed, while passing through the Straight of Bab-el Mandeb will be dangerous, US will have to deploy its ground force in Western Saudi Arabia via the Red Sea ports and move from there towards Eastern part of the Arabian Peninsula for the purpose of protecting Saudi oil fields.

There are several ports in the Red Sea and Israel that can be used for deployment of US ground force: Port of Eilat in Israel, Port of Yanbu and port of Jeddah in Saudi Arabia.
View attachment 970265
However, Port of Jeddah is only 60km away from Mecca, while Port of Yanbu is 140km away from Medina. Mass deployment of infidel forces who fight on the side of Jews against 5 Muslim states (Lebabon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Iran) near Masjid Al Haram and Masjid an-Nabawi will cause upheaval throughout the Islamic world and completely discredit the Saudi royal family. And it is not clear whether Port of Eilat alone has a capacity to handle mass deployment of US ground force.

But even if they deploy in Western part of the Arabian Peninsula, distance to Ghawar oil field is 1200km and supplying hundreds of thousands of US soldiers at that distances will be a huge logistical challenge even for US.

US Marine Corp can arrive faster than US Ground Force, but they have light equipment.

And then US has 5000 Tomohawk cruise missiles. But most of these missiles are old and unreliable as 2017 Shayrat airbase strike showed. During that strike on Syrian airbase most Tomohawk missiles failed to hit their targets. Assuming US Tomohawk strikes will be 30% effective, US can hit 800 targets in Iran with 1600 Tomohawks (2 Tomohawk missiles are usually launched per each target).

Finally, we have to answer the question - what are the goals of US war with Iran? There can be 2 goals:

1) Fight Iran for the purpose of helping Israel in its war against the Axis of Resistance

2) Punish Iran by weakening it with massive bombing campaign.

But 1) helping Israel by sacrificing Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and entire Persian Gulf oil infrastructure is not a good idea and 2) punishing Iran by bombing campaign is not a good idea either, because Iran’s response in the Straight of Hormuz and against oil infrastructure of the region will devastate global economy in general and US economy in particular.

Conclusion is that US has no good options for fighting Iran and its Axis of Resistance.

1) US Ground Force can arrive only after 7-9 months and they can’t enter the Persian Gulf and if they operate from the ports of the Red Sea, their overland supply line will be 1200km long.

2) US Navy will have to operate from the Arabian Sea and this will reduce F-18 sortie rates, while putting strain on aerial refueling tankers.

3) US Air Force will have limited number of airfields for mass deployment and those airfields will be under massive ballistic missile/cruise missile/drone strikes of Iran with Russia and China using their satellites to provide precise targeting data to Iran.

4) There is multilayered air defense network in Iran with multiple indigenous air defense systems and most US combat aircrafts will not be able to reach more developed regions of Iran like Greater Tehran region (20% of the population and 50% of Iran’s industry), Tabriz or Mashhad.

5) There are no clear goals of this war, while Iran’s response in the Straight of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb will devastate global economy.

End result;

US will never deploy a large force in the region again, US will largely retreat from the region. Damage to US military and global economy would be unprecedented.

Iran will go back 20 years in industry. Knowledge is retained, but industry has to rebuilt (maybe China would help). Presume they will attack civilian targets like electric power grid. Country would see high damage, and its impact would largely depend on how quickly China and Russia can provide assistance.

Iranian -> 5,000 - 20,000 casualties mostly civilian.

thesaint · Nov 8, 2023

https://twitter.com/x/status/1721997135791485087

thesaint · Nov 8, 2023

thesaint said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1721994627580924228

https://twitter.com/x/status/1721995350842499287

some reports say it is not from Hezbollah but from Hamas in Lebanon.

SalarHack · Nov 8, 2023

thesaint said:
some reports say it is not from Hezbollah but from Hamas in Lebanon.

At this point it is early, nay, veritably impossible to verify the activities of said group on the northern border. The key element of plausible deniability is being utilized by HezbAllah with the express intent to unnerve the Ashkenaz-ra"el" army. It is my assessment that said escalation takes the form of "one thousand pin-pricks" designed both to keep a contingent of 125,000 zionists at the ready in the border, with high likelihood that said deployment consists of their best forces, in anticipation of a larger operation by HezbAllah, and to likely invade should the Lie-DF finally snap. Interchangeable mini-operations by both HezbAllah and Hamas across the northern front may exasperate the zionists to the point where they, like now in Gaza, make an ill-informed and generally aimless decision based on Netanyahoo's ego and the congenital zionist propensity to extreme, knee-jerk violence. Should said response erupt, HezbAllah has them where they need them. One can expend the total decimation and humiliation of 1/3 of the zionist forces in the north, as well as any foreign forces they whistle for the inevitable need to actually fight.

It makes sense for everyone, like you, to be confused as to whether said aggression was the works of HezbAllah, or Hamas cells in Lebanon. Time will inform us further on the matter. In fact, it pays that the zionists think it is Hamas doing the operations from the Lebanese border, as they will reason they are already at war. They may eventually unleash a full bombing campaign of Lebanon to root out cells, which will provide HezbAllah the cover it needs and justification to launch stronger attacks and attract the Lie-DF into Lebanon. As is, they run the risk of alienating the Christians and Sunnis who are apt to believe said war is not their war, and that HezbAllah seeks to drag the country into said war.

thesaint · Nov 8, 2023

thesaint said:
could be

Actually the pic wasn't fake.... may be edited for reason.. but event is TRUE

https://twitter.com/x/status/1722059838413320383

jauk · Nov 8, 2023

https://twitter.com/x/status/1722028470086037946

TheImmortal · Nov 8, 2023

https://twitter.com/x/status/1721974597791146069

TheImmortal · Nov 8, 2023

Stryker1982 said:
Well he said hit, he didn't say invade.

I presume he was speaking about air and naval engagements. I wouldn't say he's wrong either, Iran will take damage, we have our own guys saying that industry will be damaged back to 20-30 years, therefore not favourable to risk open conflict unless absolutely needed (in self-defence)

Yes and if Iran goes back 20 years then the world goes back 20 years.

Qatar gas fields? Attacked
Saudi Oil terminals and ports? Attacked
Azerbaijan gas pipelines? blown up in more places than you can count.
Iraqi oil facilities? If not under control of PMU then Attacked
Any ship brave enough to transit the Hormuz to pick what little oil is still being produced? Attacked
Suez Canal? Attacked
Major cyberattacks on Saudi/American/Qatari/EU backed critical infrastructure and financial lifelines.

Saddam could only dream of such power.

What is the result? $250/barrel for oil and a EU now under the full desperation to Russia for any left over natural gas supply as Azeri and Qatari fields go offline. This could lead to possible implosion of the $10T+ derivatives contract market. Unraveling of insurance markets and hedge funds. Contagion that will make 1929 seem like child’s play. As left tail risk rises causing implosion of various financial entities. Fear can cause major runs on banks as people turn to gold and other versions of money to escape various currencies that will start imploding. Money printing (stimulus) by Central Banks will only further add to inflation conditions caused by massive rise in energy and gold prices.

While the world attempts to recover, Iran will detonate a nuclear bomb and become a nuclear power.

So tell me again, under such possible circumstances why would US attack Iran? Containment has worked thus far and sanctions keep Iran a wounded lion.

Pentagon has done the war scenarios over and over. Iranian leaders wish to stay in power and continue living the good life same as US politicians. But if Iranian leaders lose their spots then they have nothing to lose at that point neither does the nation.