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Iranian Chill Thread

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It seems we are going to crush aliev:

 
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They should be careful not to push Iran to Nuclearization if NATO seeks to take up a presence in the southern Caucus

*Caucasus (my apologies for the slight pedantism).

Azerbijian looks like it is preparing itself for further escalation. Remains to be seen. Russia is a terrible ally to have. Armanistan dasteshoon khalieye!

Pashinyan is western-friendly (and zionist-friendly, too). For this reason Russia may well have intended to put his feet to the fire by holding back more significant assistance against Azarbaijan (as a form of sanction or to motivate Yerevan to return more firmly into the Russian fold and cease its recent flirtations with NATO).

So Russia's position is understandable, not wanting to get embroiled in the south Caucasus in the midst of the Ukraine campaign is as well.

Biggest potential hazard to Iran in this situation is Pashinyan feigning to be standing against Baku's hypothetical expansionist moves but covertly working to weaken or neutralize Armenian defenses in an upcoming war, and then agreeing to give away the Zangezur corridor as part of a ceasefire agreement.

The possibility of this being part of a 'mission' he was assigned by handlers in Washington and Tel Aviv is definitely not to be dismissed out of hand.

Same, strongly doubt it. Pashayan is the biggest traitor to Armenians. How this guy managed to become leader is beyond me.

Through a "color revolution" orchestrated by the CIA and NGO's bankrolled by the likes of Soros. The usual protocol.

Iranian intelligence must keep an eye on Pashinyan's every move, I hope Iran has top tier informants in Yerevan (am quite confident in this regard). The Armenian Prime Minister's leanings towards the west and the zionist regime complicate the picture, so Iran must come up with a highly subtle and well thought out strategy here.

Main goal is preventing Zangezur from being occupied by Azarbaijan Republic, in the most cost-effective manner possible.
 
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I did mention some points that I think you might have agreed with, I also think Assad is still not completely in the clear yet, their is still risk of problems with Idlib and general ISIS insurgency. Iranians are not very large in number there at all, most of them are extraterritorial soldiers of which we are paying their salaries for to beef up Syria's manpower, we mostly have specialists and some guards for sensitive posts, others from foreign legions are there maintain order in large eastern parts of the country, and key points in Southern Aleppo. I think for the time that their is still threat of Turkish incursion (however slim), they will remain to deter, and of course for the previously mentioned reasons, the foothold is important. Unfortunetly, he is neither capable of attacking or defending all forces connected to Iran, even his own forces have been targeted previously.

I don't bank on Syria being a player other than being a transit route and a support option during wartime, and unless they have some secret stores of suicide UAVs and stuff, I don't expect any participation. Even for Hezbollah and PIJ, their are heavy consequences for their involvement, despite not being heads of state, they certainly have alot of weight to bear.


We can build up quite well in the North West, the infrastructure is available, most of the IRGC and Army are based in the West anyways. Our whole western flank thankfully has rigid natural defenses. The moutainous aspect of this part of Iran, does create some air defense gaps, that with simulations can be filled and solved As for the Talibs, thankfully they are such insufferable people, that a large part of Afghan society despises them, and are willing to fight an insurgency against them. This will only grow with time, due to their poor governing ability, and poverty due to being cut off from western support. Since this will grow overtime, Iran upon its choosing, if it is dealing with Talib hostility can create alot of internal problems for them, more so then they've ever faced before.
I agree with you about Syria to some extent, but I still expect Syria to make this a win-win situation for both countries. As of now, it is Iran that is spending in Syria without any tangible return for our investment there.

As for the north west, I disagree. I think you are considering only the Armed Forces of the Republic of Azerbaijan and you're ignoring a potential, and in fact highly likely, involvement of Turkey. As for the Talibs, they are targeting our national security. We can't wait for them to consolidate their power while people in Sistan and Baluchistan can not use their farmlands anymore.
 
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Below are some highly eye-opening, fresh indications as to the magnitude of the two sides' casualties (KIA) in the conflict - and both originate from the NATO / Ukrainian camp.


Ukrainian casualties

In a recent interview, Ukrainian general Sergei Gregorievich Krivonos, former deputy commander of Ukrainian reprisal operations in the Donbas under the Poroshenko regime, stated that the Ukrainian military incurred hundreds of thousands of losses. Assuming a high wounded to killed ratio of 10 to 1, this would imply at least 20.000 Ukrainian troops lost their lives.

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Source: https://odysee.com/@STRATPOL:0/bulletin-n°98.-offensive-sur-kherson,:6


Russian casualties

In an article published on August 19, 2022 by the Russian-language service of the BBC - which can hardly be suspected of favorable biased towards Moscow, a team of investigative journalists exposed the results of their field research. They established a census of the deceased at cemeteries in Russia, tallied condolence messages, and everything else they could find all over Russia, and they arrived at a figure of 5700 killed.

Casualties among forces of the People's Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk have been higher though.

Using these open sources, we notice that their findings echo the Russian narrative. Indeed, the bulk of Russian casualties occurred in the early stages of the conflict, when Russia was conduct classic maneuver warfare on the entire front lines and not merely in border regions. Then, as Russia opted for new tactics focusing predominantly on artillery fire, its losses decreased considerably. This corresponds to the declaration of the Russian Ministry of Defence, which stressed that Russian advances have slowed down because the high command is bent on sparing the lives of Russian soldiers as well as of civilians taken hostage by Ukrainian militias.

We have other coherent data, such as that casualties were comparatively most frequent among Russian paratroopers, which is logical. For this is part of the reason why they are considered elite troops - when you are parachuted, you aren't protected as when you are in an MBT. Russian paratroopers do field their own IFV's, but these have relatively light armor.

(Un)surprisingly, this BBC report was hardly relayed by the streamlined mainstream media.

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Azerbaijan uses an Israeli IAI Harop UAV to destroy an Armenian S-300 battery

https://youtu.be/vNefXmW447M

Destruction of Armenian S-300 radar


Azeri troops attempting to cross over into Armenian territory on foot. Armenian sources claim the attempt failed.


Azeri troops are now sending forces into internationally recognized Armenian territory from Nagorno-Karababkh. If this cuts off the corridor to Iran for good, then how will Iran respond ? Or is Azerbaijan simply trying to pressure Armenia to give up all of Nagorno-Karabkh, including the city of Stepanakert ?

Personally I suspect that they want to take the corridor for good so that they can establish a permanent land bridge with Nakhchivan. With Khamenei ill, will Iran act or watch as events play out ? Will the world, pre-occupied with the war in Ukraine condemn Azerbaijan, at a time when the EU is badly in need of energy ?
 
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With Khamenei ill,

Ill? The Supreme Leader's in excellent health for a man of his age, and perfectly capable of fulfilling his functions. Watch one of his regular public speeches, there's no sign of any impediment to his faculties.

 
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There are alot of rumours swirling around about his health. Not sure if they're true or not, but he is 83 years old.

Ill? The Supreme Leader's in excellent health for a man of his age, and perfectly capable of fulfilling his functions. Watch one of his regular public speeches, there's no sign of any impediment to his faculties.

 
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There are alot of rumours swirling around about his health. Not sure if they're true or not, but he is 83 years old.

Well, you can witness him speak every other day and decide for yourself (videos are uploaded to his website). The same media which every six months or so were reporting Syrian President Assad has "fled" to Moscow, are guaranteed to spread similar gibberish about the Supreme Leader. He is 83 years old but well able to fulfill his political functions. You really need not worry about this.
 
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Azerbaijan uses an Israeli IAI Harop UAV to destroy an Armenian S-300 battery

https://youtu.be/vNefXmW447M

Destruction of Armenian S-300 radar


Azeri troops attempting to cross over into Armenian territory on foot. Armenian sources claim the attempt failed.


Azeri troops are now sending forces into internationally recognized Armenian territory from Nagorno-Karababkh. If this cuts off the corridor to Iran for good, then how will Iran respond ? Or is Azerbaijan simply trying to pressure Armenia to give up all of Nagorno-Karabkh, including the city of Stepanakert ?

Personally I suspect that they want to take the corridor for good so that they can establish a permanent land bridge with Nakhchivan. With Khamenei ill, will Iran act or watch as events play out ? Will the world, pre-occupied with the war in Ukraine condemn Azerbaijan, at a time when the EU is badly in need of energy ?
Please do nor spread rumors and entirely unfounded gossip.

There are alot of rumours swirling around about his health. Not sure if they're true or not, but he is 83 years old.
There are a lot of rumors about a lot of things. Please do not propagate ESPECIALLY if you are 'Not sure if they're true or not'. smh.
 
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