Iranian Chill Thread

[Stryker1982]

I will refrain from jumping the gun. But if true it is directly the result of Russia-Ukraine war I warned about.

Whenever the West slightly exceeds in a conflict they strive to spread like wild fire across the world. When they were halted in Syria they ended up going into brief hibernation. Then It became Russia’s turn to halt NATO advancement and they laid a big fat goose egg.

But again I’ll wait and see more reports roll in. This could be Armenia just acting alarmists at some cross bordering shelling. But it is concerning that Azeribajian is acting emboldened

Dead and wounded on both sides, probably no cross border raids, but this will just be the beginning. And Yes, Nato will now strive to achieve some goals that were on the shelf.

 

[TheImmortal]

Dead and wounded on both sides, probably no cross border raids, but this will just be the beginning. And Yes, Nato will now strive to achieve some goals that were on the shelf.

Iran came into the autonomous republic and drew a line in the sand.

Russia—Armenia’s biggest backer did nothing besides some standard press releases.

With allies like Russia, who needs enemies.

 

[Stryker1982]

Iran came into the autonomous republic and drew a line in the sand.

Russia—Armenia’s biggest backer did nothing besides some standard press releases.

With allies like Russia, who needs enemies.

Hopefully we do not backtrack from lines. But if the SL is saying so, then I expect the line to stay.

Azerbijian looks like it is preparing itself for further escalation. Remains to be seen. Russia is a terrible ally to have. Armanistan dasteshoon khalieye!

 

[BigMelatonin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569488805933219840

Let's see if Russia will lift a finger to protect Armenia, doubt it personally.

 

[Stryker1982]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569488805933219840

Let's see if Russia will lift a finger to protect Armenia, doubt it personally.

Same, strongly doubt it. Pashayan is the biggest traitor to Armenians. How this guy managed to become leader is beyond me.

 

[jauk]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569052453433233408

 

[sha ah]

They haven't yet threatened the route from Iran to Armenia. They basically cut off Stepanakert from the rest of Armenia by taking Lachin/Berdzor. They want the entire Nagorno Karabkh region for themselves.

I don't think Russia is so pre-occupied in Ukraine that they can't deal with little Azerbaijan. Most likely negotiations will resolve this issue. We will have to wait and see.

The only issue for Iran is if Azerbaijan then takes all of Nagorno-Karabkh and afterwards feels emboldened to connect their eastern chunk of land with Nakhchivan. This would effectively cut off Iran from Armenia.

The solution to such a problem would be for Iran to saturate Azeri airspace and cause some serious damage to their military capability while occupying Nakhchivan. To make sure Turkey doesn't get involved, all Iran would have to do is destroy the narrow mountain pass that connects Turkey to Nakhchivan. Meanwhile the entire southern strip of Nakhchivan is bordered by Iranian territory. checkmate.

Nakhchivan, notice the narrow mountain pass that connects Turkey to this enclave. Meanwhile Iran has easy access through Nakhchivans entire southern border. Destroying this mountain pass would make it extremely difficult if not impossible for Turkey to intervene.

All it takes is one surgical strike on their gas infrastructure and this will all be over.

When the SL himself says it's a redline, I expect them to be very serious about it. Cross border shelling won't be enough but if they wanna make a move for more, then we got a problem
View attachment 878470

 

[Stryker1982]

They haven't yet threatened the route from Iran to Armenia.

They have, this time they shelled into Armenia proper. I'm not sure if you were aware, all of the attacks today was inside Armenia, including Goris which is the main transit road for Iran and Yerevan. While no boots on the ground, they've effectively halted all transit through the road with just shelling. The main road is like 400 meters away from Karabakh, and they can shell it whenever.

All that is needed is just targeting the Gas infrastructure if they want to play these games and demilitarize one of their airbases. Such kinetic responses I think would only be done if Azerbijian actually commits to a ground operation or commits itself to permanently shelling this road. Full escalation could result in more serious response like Nakhichevan.

 

[TheImmortal]

Another Oblast lost by Russia

Today

March 26th

 

[QWECXZ]

It's more than just a ground route. Syria as a state is friendly to Iran, it has not been replaced by a Pro-Saudi/Turkey government who will fulfill the wishes of NATO. Currently the SAA support & cooperate with Lebanese Hezbollah to develop assault units for the Golan. The loss of Syrian theater would create a number of large problems, firstly being the aforementioned land route, at the moment, any Iranian or Iraqi can comfortably travel into Syria, should war break out and engage Israel in the Golan. In total war scenario, one can see people as far as Afghanistan and Pakistan go to war. Truly a multi-national coalition. A possibility that has not happened before. The Syrian theater adds a new front against Israel. Beyond this even, the geopolitical ramifications of Qatar-Turkey-Europe gas pipeline would come to fruition, Neither Iran or Russia wants this to happen. This was a big blow to Nato aspirations.

I would take a different approach to what is on the surface. Try to look at Syria not at how it is now, but what it can become in 10-20 years. Syrian Military has more potential than Hezbollah can ever have just simply by the fact that their land and human resources are much more compared to the smaller nation of Lebanon. His country is in a tough spot, and so are the people, who have lost a large portion of life and suffering is immense in this country. The will for more war is not particularly high, but with the proper support he is willing to engage in Idlib, and work out a deal with the SDF. Unfortunately for him, the presence of Turkey and USA complicate things. Assad like his father is trustworthy, listens to instructions, and believed in Iran to stick by her during this difficult time. The wealthy PG nations tried to frequently bribe him with money and he still stuck by Iran, and did not accept this trap. I understand he has always been a friend to Iran, and we are repaying him for his support.

The people whose business model has become a frightening reality for many rivals, is applying this same model with Syria, I know Iran can infact re-arm Syria with force multiplier weapons beyond the current simpler systems they currently have. But it will take time to cultivate, and no amount of airstrikes can stop this process. I will say, this is a long process for Syria to re-establish its deterrent level. But it could end up stronger than it was in 2010 with this large growth in military relations between Iran-Syria-Hezbollah. More dangerous than before.

Dude, what pro-Saudi/Turkey government? The war over Damascus and nearby areas has been won a long time ago and Assad is going to remain in power, thanks to Iran and Russia.

What new front against Israel? It's not a front against Israel if Syria doesn't dare to fire a bullet at Israel and allows IAF to regularly bomb its air fields and military assets. It's more like a punching bag.

Syria is going to be the same in 10-20 years, minus normal advances of the world. It's not like our history of relations starts only after the civil war. And the civil war itself is almost 10 years old. And the friendly Assad has deeper economic ties and larger volumes of trade with Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia than Iran who saved his *** from the same fate as Ghaddafi. Even when Iran was being choked under sanctions and covid-19 restrictions, Syria still preferred to have a larger volume of trade with its enemies rather than Iran. I'm not even going to cite our parliament member's claim that said Syria owed us over 20 billion dollars for supporting them during the war.

Assad is never going to make a move that endangers himself and his family in Syria. Had Assad militarily responded to Israel's bombing of its nuclear facilities, the civil war wouldn't have started in the first place.

 

[Stryker1982]

View attachment 878547
View attachment 878548

Another Oblast lost by Russia

Today

View attachment 878549

March 26th

View attachment 878550


View attachment 878551

It took us two years to take back Khuzestan, Ukraine can also have their own Khuzestan as well if it continues like this.

Dude, what pro-Saudi/Turkey government? The war over Damascus and nearby areas has been won a long time ago and Assad is going to remain in power, thanks to Iran and Russia.

You missed my point, if Iran didn't intervene, that would have been the result. When Damascus was in serious danger,.

What new front against Israel? It's not a front against Israel if Syria doesn't dare to fire a bullet at Israel and allows IAF to regularly bomb its air fields and military assets. It's more like a punching bag

They are merely the vessel, not the attackers. I don't expect much from Syria at all, not for more than a decade, but I do expect this front, to be used by Iran and team against Israel as a launching position and as a transit route for soldiers.

 

[QWECXZ]

It took us two years to take back Khuzestan, Ukraine can also have their own Khuzestan as well if it continues like this.


You missed my point, if Iran didn't intervene, that would have been the result. When Damascus was in serious danger,.

They are merely the vessel, not the attackers. I don't expect much from Syria at all, not for more than a decade, but I do expect this front, to be used by Iran and team against Israel as a launching position and as a transit route for soldiers.

Then you probably misunderstood me. I do support Iran's intervention in Syria to defeat the rebels, but that war is now over. I'm just asking why we're still in Syria if Syria does not intend to protect our forces from Israeli bombings.

I think if Iran ever wants to launch an attack on Israel, Hezbollah and PIJ are ten times more likely to participate in that than Syria under Aassad. But of course, Hezbollah and PIJ are non-official players and Assad is the head of a state. So, maybe not a good comparison.

We could use some military buildup in the northwest and the east. Baku and the Taliban could be causing trouble for us soon. Taliban is going the path that Ashraf Ghani went without thinking twice. And Baku seems eager to disconnect Armenia from Iran.

 

[Stryker1982]

Then you probably misunderstood me. I do support Iran's intervention in Syria to defeat the rebels, but that war is now over. I'm just asking why we're still in Syria if Syria does not intend to protect our forces from Israeli bombings.

I did mention some points that I think you might have agreed with, I also think Assad is still not completely in the clear yet, their is still risk of problems with Idlib and general ISIS insurgency. Iranians are not very large in number there at all, most of them are extraterritorial soldiers of which we are paying their salaries for to beef up Syria's manpower, we mostly have specialists and some guards for sensitive posts, others from foreign legions are there maintain order in large eastern parts of the country, and key points in Southern Aleppo. I think for the time that their is still threat of Turkish incursion (however slim), they will remain to deter, and of course for the previously mentioned reasons, the foothold is important. Unfortunetly, he is neither capable of attacking or defending all forces connected to Iran, even his own forces have been targeted previously.

I think if Iran ever wants to launch an attack on Israel, Hezbollah and PIJ are ten times more likely to participate in that than Syria under Aassad. But of course, Hezbollah and PIJ are non-official players and Assad is the head of a state. So, maybe not a good comparison

I don't bank on Syria being a player other than being a transit route and a support option during wartime, and unless they have some secret stores of suicide UAVs and stuff, I don't expect any participation. Even for Hezbollah and PIJ, their are heavy consequences for their involvement, despite not being heads of state, they certainly have alot of weight to bear.

We could use some military buildup in the northwest and the east. Baku and the Taliban could be causing trouble for us soon. Taliban is going the path that Ashraf Ghani went without thinking twice. And Baku seems eager to disconnect Armenia from Iran.

We can build up quite well in the North West, the infrastructure is available, most of the IRGC and Army are based in the West anyways. Our whole western flank thankfully has rigid natural defenses. The moutainous aspect of this part of Iran, does create some air defense gaps, that with simulations can be filled and solved As for the Talibs, thankfully they are such insufferable people, that a large part of Afghan society despises them, and are willing to fight an insurgency against them. This will only grow with time, due to their poor governing ability, and poverty due to being cut off from western support. Since this will grow overtime, Iran upon its choosing, if it is dealing with Talib hostility can create alot of internal problems for them, more so then they've ever faced before.

 

[jauk]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569571955296067584

 

[Dariush the Great]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569571955296067584

The 4th photo shows scattered burned debris. Meaning it hit its target very well.