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Iranian Chill Thread


Google translator:

The presence of 3 communication towers in the bombed Mossad site in Erbil confirms that this site is intended for espionage and not for housing, as the region’s authorities claimed. A site that was owned by Baz Karim, director of the Car Company that smuggles oil to Israel, before Masrour Barzani bought it from him for $44 million to be allocated later to Mossad officers.



Google translator:

A private and well-informed source confirmed to me that the qualitative missile operation that targeted the Mossad headquarters in Erbil led to the killing of 9 Mossad members working as part of a spy ring at Erbil airport. Their names are as follows:
- Adam Butler
- Mathis Datres
- Melissa Robert
- Gabriel Talker
- Mark Zall
- Smith
- Johnny
- Jones
- Saul


Google translator:

Two Israeli media professionals reveal some of the names of the Mossad officers who were killed in the blessed Iranian missile bombing that targeted one of the Mossad headquarters in Erbil, which confirms the accuracy and validity of what we previously mentioned regarding the names of the dead Zionists. The resounding facts that will soon unfold will bridle and silence all
 
Great. If they do, the US will no longer be a party to the deal (which they aren't right now either), and therefore Washington will not be able to invoke the dispute mechanism which can lead to UN sanctions being reinstated against Iran.

Actually, I listened to an interview with Marandi in which he actually said that Iran's negotiators came up with a very clever way to make sure US doesn't leave the deal this time.

In short he said Iranian negotiators fully expect the next President to try to pull out of the Iran deal again, so instead of relying on the Americans, Iran itself inserted a clause into the agreement which basically will allow Iran to rapidly enrich uranium to weapons grade as a consequence if US were to leave the deal this time and this is written into the agreement explicitly. This way, Iran does not need Congress to pass it as Iran itself will impose a cost on the US if they try to do it. If any Republican President tries to leave it, they will be forced to allow Iran to rapidly enrich uranium to weapons grade, even Republicans don't want that so they will be forced to accept it.
 
Actually, I listened to an interview with Marandi in which he actually said that Iran's negotiators came up with a very clever way to make sure US doesn't leave the deal this time.

In short he said Iranian negotiators fully expect the next President to try to pull out of the Iran deal again, so instead of relying on the Americans, Iran itself inserted a clause into the agreement which basically will allow Iran to rapidly enrich uranium to weapons grade as a consequence if US were to leave the deal this time and this is written into the agreement explicitly. This way, Iran does not need Congress to pass it as Iran itself will impose a cost on the US if they try to do it. If any Republican President tries to leave it, they will be forced to allow Iran to rapidly enrich uranium to weapons grade, even Republicans don't want that so they will be forced to accept it.
Personally I think that this is the very best guarantee that could ever be offered,because it neither depends upon the wests goodwill or the unreliable promises of a us president/government that might be out of power in a few years,and because it threatens the west not with merely a return to the predeal status quo,but with the very real consequences that it claims that it fears the most,ie a nuclear armed iran.
 
Personally I think that this is the very best guarantee that could ever be offered,because it neither depends upon the wests goodwill or the unreliable promises of a us president/government that might be out of power in a few years,and because it threatens the west not with merely a return to the predeal status quo,but with the very real consequences that it claims that it fears the most,ie a nuclear armed iran.
But I'm hearing conflicting info on whether the latest batch of HEU will be kept in country or out. If the latter, then no, this doesn't matter and the US *can* effectively undermine Iran.
 
But I'm hearing conflicting info on whether the latest batch of HEU will be kept in country or out. If the latter, then no, this doesn't matter and the US *can* effectively undermine Iran.
In order for this guarantee to work it would require the maintaining of a cascade of the more advanced centrifuges,ie ir6-ir8 in the new underground installation being constructed near natanz.
Ultimately its about irans actual heu production capability,not its existing heu stockpile which is minimal.Because its not enough just to build one bomb,one must have an actual weapons production capability in order for this threat to be credible.
At some point the west bluff is going to have to be called,if it either cannot or will not provide the guarantees that iran requires,then iran will have to provide enough of a credible cost to the west that it would think twice before violating/leaving the deal.
Without at least one of these things,the deal is essentially worthless to iran.

*****************************************************************************


Update on the zaghari-ratcliffe case:
Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe has UK passport returned, MP says
 
Actually, I listened to an interview with Marandi in which he actually said that Iran's negotiators came up with a very clever way to make sure US doesn't leave the deal this time.

In short he said Iranian negotiators fully expect the next President to try to pull out of the Iran deal again, so instead of relying on the Americans, Iran itself inserted a clause into the agreement which basically will allow Iran to rapidly enrich uranium to weapons grade as a consequence if US were to leave the deal this time and this is written into the agreement explicitly. This way, Iran does not need Congress to pass it as Iran itself will impose a cost on the US if they try to do it. If any Republican President tries to leave it, they will be forced to allow Iran to rapidly enrich uranium to weapons grade, even Republicans don't want that so they will be forced to accept it.

The potential trick with the US not leaving the JCPOA is that it may then act like the Obama regime: impose new sanctions under pretexts other than nuclear and thus discourage companies from trading with Iran, while at the same time pretending they are still participating in the deal...

If as a consequence Iran decides to walk back on some of its own commitments - something the JCPOA does allow explicitly in fact (by stating that if one side fails to fulfill its duties, the other can do so as well), the US could invoke the Dispute Resolution Mechanism (DRM) enshrined in the document, by complaining that Iran is violating the terms of the deal. The DRM specifies that several rounds of talks must be held to try and solve the issue, but that if no solution is found, the plaintiff can refer Iran to the UNSC, where UN sanctions are then automatically snapped back without even a vote - meaning Russia and China would not be able to veto it.

Whereas if Washington outright leaves the JCPOA like Trump did, it will no longer have the possibility to initiate the DRM, and therefore to have UN sanctions reinstated as a result.

Now of course, even if they leave the deal, which will allow Iran to scale back its commitments as per actual JCPOA provisions, the Americans will still lie and claim Iran is "violating" the agreement. Which is what Trump also did, however he had no way to achieve UN sanctions snap back.

So, while what you describe is indeed an important bonus for Iran, guarantees that the US will not go the Obama route are just as important - i.e. that the US will not officially stay in the deal but effectively violate it to prevent Iran from reaping the promised economic benefits, while maintaining the option to provoke UN sanctions snap back in case Iran reacted accordingly. However from what I heard Dr. Marandi say, it would seem that Iranian negotiators have submitted firm conditions in this regard as well.
 
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Several days to go before Nowruz, Iranians across the country, in line with ancient traditions, are busy cleaning their houses, shopping for the Nowruz eve, performing ancient traditions and preparing to welcome spring and say goodbye to winter.
People in the Iranian province of Mazandaran, known as Nowruz singers, before the arrival of spring, periodically entered cities and villages and improvised poems in praise of spring .
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It is almost spring and time for "Classical" car displays in Iran..this one is in ISFAHAN.
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This American Car on the right (I think Rambler!) was actually built in Iran in early 1970's ..Iran also had just started to assemble Cadillacs
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Russian strategies in this war ruined all of their military reputation. I think the obama was right, russia is a regional power not a global power.

If this war took place in 1990 then yes Russia would do very well.

But it didn’t enter UAV race till very late and it shows. UAVs are used as accessories rather than a leading part of a strategy. Most UAVs are not armed and use to guide artillery or air strikes or recon.

Armor, Russian armour lacks APS system to stop these expensive ATGM (javelin and NLAW). Syria, Libya, and Yemen showed us no matter how old the tank (T-62) or how advanced the tank (M1 abrams) armour without APS will be shredded to pieces. Ask the Saudi’s who have lost Bradley’s and Abrams to guys in sandals carrying Kornets and Tow copies.

As for communications, communications are being done using unsecured lines and struggling to communicate at range with command, forcing local commanders to get closer to front lines and dying. They aren’t dying because they like to be close to the battlefield (like Iranian commanders) they are dying because THEY HAVE TO BE.

This is actually a VERY good thing for Putin. It shows his military was very rusty and deeply flawed all the way up to top Brass. This will allow a refreshment of Russian armed forces and doctrine to finally move away from the old Soviet doctrine.

But there is also one caveat, Ukraine is doing ALOT better because of 24/7 intelligence and pinpoint targeting data being provided by US/NATO. Without that....this war would look ALOT different and Ukraine resistance would collapse much faster
 
Actually, I listened to an interview with Marandi in which he actually said that Iran's negotiators came up with a very clever way to make sure US doesn't leave the deal this time.

In short he said Iranian negotiators fully expect the next President to try to pull out of the Iran deal again, so instead of relying on the Americans, Iran itself inserted a clause into the agreement which basically will allow Iran to rapidly enrich uranium to weapons grade as a consequence if US were to leave the deal this time and this is written into the agreement explicitly. This way, Iran does not need Congress to pass it as Iran itself will impose a cost on the US if they try to do it. If any Republican President tries to leave it, they will be forced to allow Iran to rapidly enrich uranium to weapons grade, even Republicans don't want that so they will be forced to accept it.

What they agreed on (reportedly) was that advanced Iranian centrifuges would be disconnected but NOT dismantled.

So if Republican rips up deal, Iran will simply connect and enrich quickly.

Also, the real chess piece is the centrifuge production and enrichment hall being built in the mountain near Natanz. Fordow like structures should have been done been done years ago, but better late than never.

If it was me, I would build a parallel nuclear program starting form supply chain to enrichment all in a series of mountain bases to protect against Sabotage and attack. This would also lead to greater leverage against the world.
 
Actually, I listened to an interview with Marandi in which he actually said that Iran's negotiators came up with a very clever way to make sure US doesn't leave the deal this time.

In short he said Iranian negotiators fully expect the next President to try to pull out of the Iran deal again, so instead of relying on the Americans, Iran itself inserted a clause into the agreement which basically will allow Iran to rapidly enrich uranium to weapons grade as a consequence if US were to leave the deal this time and this is written into the agreement explicitly. This way, Iran does not need Congress to pass it as Iran itself will impose a cost on the US if they try to do it. If any Republican President tries to leave it, they will be forced to allow Iran to rapidly enrich uranium to weapons grade, even Republicans don't want that so they will be forced to accept it.
Can you please show the source? I doubt mr.Marandi said such a thing re;weapons grade.
Would be big if true.
 

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