In the past, during the Obama era, China would work with the US against Iran. However times have changed. Now with the sheer amount of animosity between both sides, China will not stop buying Iranian crude. They're publicly admitting to purchasing 1 million barrels a day and they're currently having severe power shortages, so the real number might be much higher at the moment.
The fact of the matter is that the world is energy hungry. Iran has the largest reserves of natural gas and the 4th largest reserves of crude on the planet. Winter is approaching and the EU energy sector is feeling the crunch. Most of the UKs gas suppliers are vying for bankruptcy since they no longer have access to the common EU market they have to pay more than anyone else.
I highly doubt if Iran is having any issues selling as much crude/natural gas as they pump out. Now even Lebanon is receiving Iranian oil via Syria. It's simple. Every industrialized nation requires a constant stream of energy supplies. Even if Iran did have any issues finding buyers, a slight discount would make energy hungry customers line up and beg for it. I can guarantee that at the moment there are several nations which are buying Iranian crude behind closed doors.
Right now, despite sanctions, despite Covid, remarkably, Iran's economy is growing, albeit at a rate of 2-3%, this rate is set to hold for the next few years. It would be nice if Iran could work out a deal with the JCPOA but the Americans are trying to change the terms of the deal. They're basically being unreasonable.
Right now Turkey just bought another S-400 battery from Russia. NATO and the EU, Americans are not happy about this. The Lira is currently at an all time low. The Republicans are also pressing ahead with a bill to punish Pakistan over what happened in Afghanistan and Pakistan can't access IMF funds, with even China being reluctant to extend more funds to them, their economy is in dire straits.
So basically, the way things are playing out, they're going to sanction every major influential Muslim country except for the Gulf Arabs, Saudi Arabia and Egypt I guess. Go figure. What a joke. Just goes to show how one sided / demented their world view is.
With China experiencing economic issues and Russia still requiring more funding for their future weapons systems, it's likely that they will be willing to sell Iran fighter jets. It's only a matter of which fighter jets. Iran is picky. Iran already has too many fighter jets in its inventory. The logistics is extremely expensive. They don't want more inventory and costs but rather a reliable and cost effective model that will get the job done and give Iran an edge over its current situation.
I've said it before. Iran wants to trade oil for fighter jets. China wants foreign currency or gold. China wants to sell Iran the JF-17. Iran wants the J-10 or something better. Technology transfers and all the details are also another issue to be resolved.
As far as Azerbaijan (Baku Republic) is concerned, I'm not sure what all the fuss is about. They seem to have grown arrogant since defeating Armenia, which is 1/3rd their size after 3 decades of failing. Not to mention the extensive help from Turkey that was essential for them. Now they want to squeeze as much as they can out of this victory.
They want even more Armenian territory. Internationally recognized Armenian territory even. They even have their eyes set on northern Iran, which is pretty silly if you ask me. How many Azeri people live within Iran ? Atleast 20 million ? During the Nagorno Karabakh conflict we saw very small scale protests. All together did the people even number 1000 ? They're really overplaying their hand here. It's childish and silly.
If you look at their border. the Baku Republic is split into two. The main eastern segment and then Nakhchivan enclave, which borders Iran. The Nakhchivan enclave is separated by Armenia proper, which is internationally recognized Armenian land. Currently that territory is being manned by Russian "peacekeepers" along with some Armenian troops.
So basically the Nakhchivan enclave is split away from the rest of Azerbaijan. Not only that but realistically Iran has an entire border stretching along the entire stretch of the Nakhchivan enclave. Turkey has access but only through a narrow mountain road, which is pretty much a choke point.
Realistically they're acting arrogant in my opinion. Consider the fact that during the conflict Iran's official policy was to support Baku's claims to Nagorno-Karabakh. Now they want to harass and tax Iranian truck drivers over what the U2 highway, a tiny portion of which just barely skims into their contested territory ?
I'm sure Iran can easily divert the road to avoid Baku territory, but it's the principal that they're behaving in such an arrogant manner towards a nation of 80 million when they're pretty much a city state and in reality they're a kingdom. I mean Aliyev's son got the role from his father and his wife is the vice president right ? I mean is that a joke or what ? Seriously ? His wife is vice president for life ? LOL
The big picture. Iran, Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, the Caspian region.
Okay so if we zoom in you see that the U2 which connects Iran to Armenia barely just skims into Baku's territory. The road can easily be diverted as well. If they really insist on being petty then Iran can seize or tax Baku fishermen who tread into Iranian territorial waters on a daily basis or put a large import tax onto any incoming freight from Baku.
Btw the blue is territory won by Baku in the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region. Red is still under Armenia.
So the U2 road barely touches skims and then touches their territory in the northern part.
Now the Nakhchivan enclave, which is cut off from the rest of Baku Republic. Notice how Iran shares a border on the entire stretch, meanwhile Turkey only has access via one mountainous road, which is essentially a choke point. This was by Soviet design. However it is what it is.
I would rather this issue be resolved with simple diplomacy. However if they insist on being petty and arrogant then Iran can proceed with further action. Remember what happened to the British when they captured an Iranian tanker ? Iran captured 3 of theirs in 1 week. So that was Britain. This is the city state of Baku we're talking about.
They should really consider the reality of their situation and their place in the region. Do they want long term and fruitful cooperation with all neighboring states including Iran, Armenia and the rest or do they want to resort to petty squabbles and cry when they get a response ?
I want to reply to your posts in farsi, but it a pain in the *** to use a farsi keyboard for me, if you don't mind.
I understand your point of view, I want this Barjam/Nuclear program issue to be closed once and for all so that we may move on, either construct the nuclear weapons, or sign some sort of beneficial agreement. This issue should be resolved and not extended where the economy will continue to be sanctioned.
The GDP of the country has suffered for many years now ever since the sanctions were implemented, this has been a struggle that has had some fruits but has also created other poverty issues, that's why to me it is imperative that this nuclear chapter in the history of Iran is closed. A decision needs to be made once and for all.
We've also been locked out of purchasing military aircraft because of this issue as well and because of Russian cowardice. Our only option, and the option that we are going towards is our own aircraft but this will take alot of time to achieve, the main priority is in one way or another, to remove the sanctions regime off the country and to allow the country to grow economically again. It will be good for both military and civilian.
I understand your criticism about the doctrinal approach but believe it, they took the most effective and efficient doctrine approach in terms of how to defend the country's and how to attack. I promise you, we would've gone no where with aircraft and as a matter of fact, would've likely been already attack by the United States had we not developed a missile industry from the ground up. Their is no way we were ever going to compete with USAF or our regional airforces for that matter considering the sanctions would've restricted Iran from financially acquiring a large fleet. Hence their would be no point in following the same traditional methods.
Iran's missile industry is not like the other, it is designed for cost effective, mass production and the lowest possible cost, so our inventory levels for these particular munitions despite a hampered economy would vastly overmatch any country around Iran. This approach has allowed Iran to completely cast a shadow of air power denial over any adversary not to mention allow for destruction of important enemy infrastructure deep into their territory, something we would struggle to do with aircraft and did in the Iran-Iraq war. Anywhere, anytime strike is now available on mass to Iran.
Perhaps if Iran can finally procure a new generation of aircraft to compliment it's missile corps, the firepower and infrastructure to deliver them would be an overmatch to anyone, despite this missing component no one wants to attack us, not even Israel. But this requires a heavy financial commitment, which can only be done when not under heavy sanctions.. In my opinion with regards to aircraft to have consistent Tacair power, we need our own aircraft for self-sufficiency and sustainability reasons even if they are not highly capable, but just "good enough" because of the risks associated with dealing with other countries. It would be interesting if the nuclear negotiation team can put a clause that Russia would sell X amount of aircraft as part of the agreement atleast as a stop gap for our own development. Alot of engine work has been done over the years, and I'm optimistic to see a larger RQ-170 bomber, and Sejill drone both of which would be excellent achievements for Iran's aviation industry.
Of course, we have not even mentioned the shit load of drones that can provide loitering airpower in drone swarms, or drone waves and the extensive work done in air defense. When the money is good we can go in the direction of aircraft. That's why we need this nuclear chapter to close, either build one to secure our defensive needs or make a deal. Interesting to see what they will do.
Edit: Spelling mistakes
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