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Iranian Chill Thread

Interesting insight into some of the alleged confidential terms of the Iran-Saudi deal to restore diplomatic relations.


Notice the subtle but important, telling nuance: Iran will keep supporting HezbOllah, the PMU, AnsarAllah and the Syrian government. Whereas Saudi Arabia reportedly agreed to stop funding armed terrorist grouplets and propaganda outlets against Iran.

This is highly illustrative as to which side entered these negotiations from a position of strength, and which did so from a position of relative weakness. A balance brought about by the outcome of regional conflicts: Iran's allies stood their ground and came out on top in every theater.

Iran guaranteeing that her allies won't launch any strikes on Saudi Arabia in peacetime is but a continuation of the status quo, given that members of the Axis of Resistance never initiate hostilities - they merely defend their land and people when attacked or occupied.

Indeed and contrary to zionist-concocted, Iranophobic and Shiaphobic narratives hitherto spread by means of Saudi petro-dollars, in these conflicts the Axis of Resistance was the defending side and the zio-American camp and their regional clients the aggressors. So here again, Iran isn't conceding anything nor changing her behaviour, but merely pursuing her long-standing, principled policy. And Riyadh is now free to spend those petro-dollars on more constructive, peaceful projects.

A resounding political and diplomatic success for Iran, coming on the heels of consecutive battlefield victories.
 
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- Iran conducted her most damaging cyber-attack on the zionist entity to date by hacking the Technion university's sensitive databases and potentially gaining access to documentation on close to all advanced future weapons systems Tel Aviv is working on.
Indeed, although the reports I have read do not mention the extent of the infiltration.

Far more successful (in confirmed terms) was the massive cyberattack against Albania (a NATO member) in late 2022, in retaliation for its hosting of the MEK terrorist cult, which effectively infiltrated and shut down many major networks and systems in Albania, leading to widespread and lasting disarray. Without a doubt the biggest cyber success in Iran's history. The result of this attack was the Albanian PM ordering the MEK to stop all public activities against Iran, including its annual "Free Iran" event.

To give users an idea of the scale and extent of that incredible attack, some excerpts from the NYT report (key parts in bold):

NYT said:
Customers at one of Albania’s biggest banks got a shock shortly before Christmas when a curt text popped up on their cellphones: “Your account has been blocked. The balance of your account is zero. Thank you.”

The messages, which turned out to be fake, signaled the opening of a disruptive new front in what Albanian authorities, the United States and NATO have identified as an enormous cyberattack orchestrated by Iran on one of the weakest members of the military alliance.

The attack on Albania has not only disrupted the government’s work and sought to undermine trust in financial institutions — a grave threat in a country that tipped into civil war in 1997 after fraudulent investment funds collapsed — but it has also involved the leak of a vast trove of confidential information.

Leaked data includes the names and addresses of more than a thousand undercover police informants; the email traffic of the head of the intelligence service, a former president and the former chief of police; and the banking information for more than 30,000 people.

The attack on Albania began in 2021 when hackers penetrated an unprotected government computer and then expanded from that beachhead into networks used by the Albanian intelligence service, the police, border guards and other official agencies.

Lurking there for many months unbeknown to the authorities, they downloaded huge quantities of data and then broke cover last summer when they started deleting files from servers, crippling many government services. After that, they started leaking selected information, much of it secret, on a Telegram messaging service channel called Homeland Justice.

Just as officials thought that holes in Albania’s defenses had been plugged, the hackers turned on the private sector, hitting at least one major bank, Credins Bank, with fake messages of drained accounts and releasing confidential personal banking information.

It just goes on and on,” Mr. Rama lamented. “This is a terrorist attack designed to create panic, to create fear, to fuel insecurity and to make people believe that nothing is under control,” he added. “They have planted ticking bombs everywhere with no clear pattern about when and where these bombs will blow up next.”

But the ultimate target of the attack seems reasonably clear. The Homeland Justice channel has featured regular posts denouncing M.E.K., the Iranian opposition group, as terrorists and demanding that Albania shut down a camp run by the group near the port city of Durres or face further mayhem.

Former members describe M.E.K., which in 2016 moved many of its followers to Albania from its previous base in Iraq, as a sinister cult. The United States classified it a terrorist outfit until 2012, but leaned on Albania to offer shelter to thousands of its members after their camp in Iraq came under attack from pro-Iran militias.

To reduce the risk of panic, the Albanian government prohibited news outlets from publishing information leaked on the Homeland Justice channel. The United States has dispatched experts from the F.B.I. and other agencies, though Mr. Rama said, “Of course we would like to see the U.S. government do more, to help more and be more present in helping us to build the best possible cyberdefenses.” Israel, which has extensive experience dealing with Iranian threats, is also helping.

But these efforts, according to Gentian Progni, a cybersecurity expert in Tirana, left suspected Iranian hackers lurking in Albania’s networks until at least the end of January. He noted that they posted online a government identification document generated on Jan. 29.

We were told the hackers were no longer inside the system, but we can see they are still there,” Mr. Progni said in an interview last month. “This is a big mess and more serious than anyone thinks.”

But he complained that M.E.K. were “not easy people, frankly,” and that the group had violated an agreement that it would refrain from using Albania as “a safe haven to make political activity against the Iranian regime.”

Instead, the group has organized high-profile events in Albania aimed at rallying opposition to Tehran, including an annual gathering called the Free Iran World Summit, whose paid speakers have included prominent American supporters like Rudolph W. Giuliani, a former New York mayor and a onetime personal lawyer to former President Donald J. Trump.

The Iranian dissidents, Mr. Rama said, have “friends on Capitol Hill that lobby for them” but have now been ordered to halt public activities against Iran. M.E.K. canceled the Free Iran event last year. “There is no more of this now,” the prime minister said. “We hope that they will not try again because it is not beneficial to this country and they have to accept that.”
 
I'm very doubtful that Saudis, who are completely dependent on US for military, and government stability will shift away from them.

I see this as a game by Israel and it smells very bad for Iran. Soon, we could have Saudis normalizing relations with Israel and Iran will look like a fool, Having sent a message that anyone can normalize relations with Israel and still be in good relations with Iran.

Also, Yemeni's must feel betrayed. Nothing is resolved from their end. They're still under blockade from Saudi and western side, slowly bring strangled. At least resolve that issue and force a Saudi retreat, then think about relations.

What Iran gained from Saudis to think about normalizing relations? I mean, in a war you think about relations when you did something dirty to that nation or even taking a part of their country, even subduing them for some.

Saudis and Zionists constantly attack Iran, threats about bombing Iran and in return turn the other cheek. It's like in warfare when the enemy attacks, then when its our turn, they sue for peace, until they're ready again. We seem to be falling for it constantly.

I was hoping in the aftermath of the recent "revolution" attempts in Iran, Iran would have Yemenis cripple the Saudi oil infrastructure and finally force an end to the blockade. This would have sent a strong message to neighboring countries about forming relations with Israel. But Iran gets this, weak diplomacy,

This is something akin to something the westernized Rohani would do.

What will happen to ISIS, Al Qaeda and Iran International if "Non-interference in internal affairs of states"? What will happen to Wahhabis in Pakistan and Afghanistan?
It's difficult to trust Wahhabis
 
Notice the subtle but important, telling nuance: Iran will keep supporting HezbOllah, the PMU, AnsarAllah and the Syrian government. Whereas Saudi Arabia reportedly agreed to stop funding armed terrorist grouplets and propaganda outlets against Iran.

This is highly illustrative as to which side entered these negotiations from a position of strength, and which did so from a position of relative weakness. A balance brought about by the outcome of regional conflicts: Iran's allies stood their ground and came out on top in every theater.

Iran guaranteeing that her allies won't launch any strikes on Saudi Arabia in peacetime is but a continuation of the status quo, given that members of the Axis of Resistance never initiate hostilities - they merely defend their land and people when attacked or occupied.

Indeed and contrary to zionist-concocted, Iranophobic and Shiaphobic narratives hitherto spread by means of Saudi petro-dollars, in these conflicts the Axis of Resistance was the defending side and the zio-American camp and their regional clients the aggressors. So here again, Iran isn't conceding anything nor changing her behaviour, but merely pursuing her long-standing, principled policy. And Riyadh is now free to spend those petro-dollars on more constructive, peaceful projects.

A resounding political and diplomatic success for Iran, coming on the heels of consecutive battlefield victories.

This assumption is flawed.. The Saudis only funds in the Islah regime and the Transitional separatist and the giants brigade never funded in irrelevant elements inside Iran or KRG it would have been waste of money for them.

The Saudis aren't entering into this from any position of weakness. They have their Yemen and petro regions of Yemen.

Besides It is not Saudi Arabia in Syria and Iraq but rather Turkey, US and Russia occupied hence it is not a Saudi occupied arena. Everyone is okay with the current status-quo.

This agreement comes with disengagement agreement which is good for both sides and hosilities stops but the Saudis are not negotiating from any way of weakness.

It is not Saudi allies that are invaded but the other way around.

The Saudis mostly operate with gov't institutions and they will keep whatever they have currently.

It is not the Saudis who benefit mostly from this agreement but Iran and China mostly as the Saudis already have an axis and allies but this will benefit mostly Russia as Iran can fully focus on Ukraine
 
I see this as a game by Israel and it smells very bad for Iran. Soon, we could have Saudis normalizing relations with Israel and Iran will look like a fool, Having sent a message that anyone can normalize relations with Israel and still be in good relations with Iran.

Also, Yemeni's must feel betrayed. Nothing is resolved from their end. They're still under blockade from Saudi and western side, slowly bring strangled. At least resolve that issue and force a Saudi retreat, then think about relations.
This is a really strange interpretation of events. There are very senior Israeli politicians publicly complaining about how this restoration of diplomatic relations directly and severely harms their interests.

As for anyone being able to normalise relations with Israel and having good relations with Iran, the restoration of diplomatic relations is not "good relations". Also, I don't know if you realised but Iran has diplomatic relations with dozens of countries that actually have normalised relations with Israel (and beyond) in reality, not just in your speculation.

Yemen has been in a ceasefire for a long time before this deal. The deal allegedly calls on all parties to promote a peaceful resolution to the conflict. If Saudi Arabia does not live up to that obligation, then Iran can equally resume normal order.
 
This assumption is flawed.. The Saudis only funds in the Islah regime and the Transitional separatist and the giants brigade never funded in irrelevant elements inside Iran or KRG it would have been waste of money for them.

Riyadh is / was backing the exiled Iranian opposition. From monarchists to separatist and MKO terrorists, this is excessively well documented. And, in efforts like these money is the main not to say exclusive tool at Arabestan's disposal.

The Saudis aren't entering into this from any position of weakness. They have their Yemen and petro regions of Yemen.

That wasn't the goal of their campaign. Stated objective was to prevent the formation of a government allied to Iran at Saudi's southern flank. It failed.

Besides It is not Saudi Arabia in Syria and Iraq but rather Turkey, US and Russia occupied hence it is not a Saudi occupied arena. Everyone is okay with the current status-quo.

The Saudis bankrolled, armed and supplied manpower to the Syrian opposition in hopes of toppling President Assad, and were defeated.

This agreement comes with disengagement agreement which is good for both sides and hosilities stops but the Saudis are not negotiating from any way of weakness.

The only reason they came to the table is because their plans to unseat Iran's allies throughout the region came to naught.

Iran will continue sponsoring the very movements for whose dissolution the Saudis have been publicly calling for years and years, lamenting what they called "sectarian Iranian proxy militias interfering in Arab affairs". According to reports, Riyadh however will put to rest its attempts to prop up the exiled Iranian opposition.

This imbalanced outcome reflects a position of weakness on Riyadh's part.

It is not Saudi allies that are invaded but the other way around.

Launching aggression is not a sign of strength. It only is when the aggression succeeds. Fact is however that all acts of aggression aimed at suppressing Iranian allies were resoundingly defeated.

The Saudis mostly operate with gov't institutions and they will keep whatever they have currently.

They've spend billions on religious networks as well as on non-state militias and political parties. It's mainly through those that they sought to challenge Iran.
 
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I'm very doubtful that Saudis, who are completely dependent on US for military, and government stability will shift away from them.

I see this as a game by Israel and it smells very bad for Iran. Soon, we could have Saudis normalizing relations with Israel and Iran will look like a fool, Having sent a message that anyone can normalize relations with Israel and still be in good relations with Iran.

Also, Yemeni's must feel betrayed. Nothing is resolved from their end. They're still under blockade from Saudi and western side, slowly bring strangled. At least resolve that issue and force a Saudi retreat, then think about relations.

What Iran gained from Saudis to think about normalizing relations? I mean, in a war you think about relations when you did something dirty to that nation or even taking a part of their country, even subduing them for some.

Saudis and Zionists constantly attack Iran, threats about bombing Iran and in return turn the other cheek. It's like in warfare when the enemy attacks, then when its our turn, they sue for peace, until they're ready again. We seem to be falling for it constantly.

I was hoping in the aftermath of the recent "revolution" attempts in Iran, Iran would have Yemenis cripple the Saudi oil infrastructure and finally force an end to the blockade. This would have sent a strong message to neighboring countries about forming relations with Israel. But Iran gets this, weak diplomacy,

This is something akin to something the westernized Rohani would do.

What will happen to ISIS, Al Qaeda and Iran International if "Non-interference in internal affairs of states"? What will happen to Wahhabis in Pakistan and Afghanistan?
It's difficult to trust Wahhabis
I can only speculate here;

I can't say this will pull SA from the USA, but what appears to be going on is a trade of interests here; Iran and Saudi Arabia have specific playing cards, and after building these playing these cards over last 8 years, have traded them in for the reduction of tensions. What will certainly be apparent, is Yemeni's will not stop being supported by Iran, but their attacks and likely the whole war itself is likely to stop. From historical perspective, Iran has always stuck through with its allies thick and thin, never once betraying, whether it'd be Hezbollah, Syria, PMF, Ansurallah, and as far as Ahmad Shah Massoud and the Northern Alliance. I think since SA were not able to win in Yemen, they are forced to accept the Yemeni's as legitimate. In my opinion, and perhaps @SalarHaqq agrees, The Revolutionary committee in Yemen has the potential to be even more powerful than Hezbollah overtime.

We traded our playing cards, but one untouchable card was Yemen. And that was the primary reason these negotiations took so long, because SA couldn't accept the Yemen situation until they were forced to. Ultimately, if things don't go to sh*t in this agreement, we should see better stability between Nations (while regional political and games will continue), improve economic activity in Iran (via Trade), and securing of peace between nations of the Persian Gulf. Iran is securing it's southern flank due to increased potential threats and action else where (Azerbaijan, Israel, Kurdistan).

In case of conflict with the US, the SA will presumably very discouraged to support anything the US does. SA would be careful not to violate any deal as the guys in Yemen have some new toys. Technically the downside is that SA can also simply sign with Israel as well which is not good and hopefully is strongly encouraged in this agreement.
 
I'm very doubtful that Saudis, who are completely dependent on US for military, and government stability will shift away from them.

It's doubtful indeed. Not so much because Saudi Arabia needs the USA - for it's not as if a vassal could freely choose its destiny anyway, but because Washington has the means to fatally punish recalcitrant clients in a flash. Unless China offered firm security guarantees to the regime in Riyadh while warning the USA that the Saudis are from now on under Chinese protection. However it's highly unlikely Beijing would get quite as confrontational with the Americans at this point in time. They certainly will in future, but we're not there yet.

I see this as a game by Israel and it smells very bad for Iran. Soon, we could have Saudis normalizing relations with Israel and Iran will look like a fool, Having sent a message that anyone can normalize relations with Israel and still be in good relations with Iran.

In this scenario Iran would have resumed diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia prior to the latter normalizing relations with Tel Aviv. Therefore it could not be interpreted as a signal that Iran doesn't care about neighbors recognizing the illegitimate occupation regime. Also, in such an eventuality Iran would always have the option to walk back on the present agreement.

Also, Yemeni's must feel betrayed. Nothing is resolved from their end. They're still under blockade from Saudi and western side, slowly bring strangled. At least resolve that issue and force a Saudi retreat, then think about relations.

No, they don't. AnsarAllah officially gave their blessing to the move.

CHIEF NEGOTIATOR OF YEMEN'S IRAN-BACKED HOUTHI MOVEMENT, MOHAMMED ABDULSALAM

"The region needs the resumption of normal ties between its countries for the Islamic nation to reclaim its lost security as a result of foreign interference."


What Iran gained from Saudis to think about normalizing relations? I mean, in a war you think about relations when you did something dirty to that nation or even taking a part of their country, even subduing them for some.

Iran didn't lose anything either. So even if the reopening of embassies yields no particular benefits, no price will have been paid.

Saudis and Zionists constantly attack Iran, threats about bombing Iran and in return turn the other cheek. It's like in warfare when the enemy attacks, then when its our turn, they sue for peace, until they're ready again. We seem to be falling for it constantly.

I was hoping in the aftermath of the recent "revolution" attempts in Iran, Iran would have Yemenis cripple the Saudi oil infrastructure and finally force an end to the blockade. This would have sent a strong message to neighboring countries about forming relations with Israel. But Iran gets this, weak diplomacy,

Well, the Saudis are reported to have backtracked on their support for the exiled Iranian opposition, and the future of the Saudi International broadcaster is in question.

A correct analogy with a situation of open warfare would thus be more akin to this: the enemy launched an aggression (the failed pseudo-"revolution" of late 2022), was defeated big time, and then agreed to disarm unilaterally (since Riyadh's only weapons in this fight were their petro-dollars, with which they bankrolled anti-Iranian separatist terrorists as well as the Saudi International TV station).

Iran achieved this without having to fire a bullet.

This is something akin to something the westernized Rohani would do.

Iran made zero concessions at the negotiating table. Which sets this deal apart from what the Rohani administration would have been willing to agree on, that is virtually unlimited one-sided concessions to the west.

As said before, for Iran to ensure that her allies will not initiate armed hostilities against Saudi Arabia is not a concession at all: it's always been part of Iran's and her allies' principled policy not to start any wars, but to defend with force when attacked.

What's more, AnsarAllah just declared that any decision on their part to resume fighting will not depend on Iran - a way for Iran to keep all options open.


Bottom line, Islamic Iran gave nothing in exchange for Saudi Arabia dropping its support for anti-Iran elements.

What will happen to ISIS, Al Qaeda and Iran International if "Non-interference in internal affairs of states"? What will happen to Wahhabis in Pakistan and Afghanistan?
It's difficult to trust Wahhabis

If there's no evolution in this regard, Iran still won't have lost anything since she made no meaningful concession to start with.

Also when it comes to "I"SIS, Al-Qaida and the likes, Saudi contribution was mostly focusing on funds and preachers. The main handlers of these terrorist groups are Mossad, the CIA and their colleagues from the EU. So "I"SIS and company will not cease to exist if the Saudis stop their involvement.

A last point to consider, this agreement could possibly encourage Chinese investment in Iran and facilitate the establishment of the southern land-based BRI corridor.



Iran and Saudi Arabia have specific playing cards, and after building these playing these cards over last 8 years, have traded them in for the reduction of tensions.
We traded our playing cards,

From reports published to this day, I don't see what card Iran traded in.

In my opinion, and perhaps @SalarHaqq agrees, The Revolutionary committee in Yemen has the potential to be even more powerful than Hezbollah overtime.

In my opinion it would depend on how power is defined, or what aspects of it are considered.

Lebanon is more developed than Yemen, far more interconnected with the rest of the world including with its western part - which can create opportunities, it's for instance the reason why an exceptional operative like shahid Emad Moghniye was fluent in French and English, something that comes in handy when you're at the helm of an intelligence apparatus, and Lebanon can moreover be supplied with greater ease as compared to Yemen.

This is not to downplay AnsarAllah's achievements of course. Given the circumstances, they've done wonders.
 
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From reports published to this day, I don't see what card Iran traded in.
It's hard to believe IR gave nothing in exchange for many security benefits it has received. Perhaps a guarantee to the end of the war in Yemen, and to dis-encourage Ansurallah from launching cross border attacks and to tone down anti-Saudi media coverage for instance.
In my opinion it would depend on how power is defined, or what aspects of it are considered.

Lebanon is more developed than Yemen, far more interconnected with the rest of the world including with its western part - which can create opportunities, it's for instance the reason why an exceptional operative like shahid Emad Moghniye was fluent in French and English, something that comes in handy when you're at the helm of an intelligence apparatus, and Lebanon can moreover be supplied with greater ease as compared to Yemen.

This is not to downplay AnsarAllah's achievements of course. Given the circumstances, they've done wonders.
Fair point.

I would define power as loyalty and numbers with the geography and potential for military growth. The number of Hezbollah supporters are not large as Lebanon itself is not a large country, so with their few numbers they are working wonders. Yemen for instance has a decently large population and a large pool of loyal supporters within in the country with a similar GDP to Lebenon. If they receive alot of military assistance from Iran, they can grow in both training and equipment combined with a large force that can act in an expeditionary fashion as well if they want to do such a thing.. They are also in a geostrategic area in the Red sea which gives them political significance. Not that Hezbollah doesn't have it, but certainly Ansurallah have potential to really play with global economy.
 
It's hard to believe IR gave nothing in exchange for many security benefits it has received.

It's what the Cradle report would imply.

Perhaps a guarantee to the end of the war in Yemen,

In this regard AnsarAllah declared they would act as they see fit even if Iran came to an agreement with the Saudis.

and to dis-encourage Ansurallah from launching cross border attacks

They never intended to, unless attacked of course.

and to tone down anti-Saudi media coverage for instance.

This would weigh quasi nothing in comparison to Riyadh's purported concessions. Also Iranian media focus more on denouncing the zionist and USA regimes.

Lebanon itself is not a large country,

Lebanon isn't indeed, with a population of 5,6 million. However the Lebanese aren't that small a nation, since their diaspora surpasses the population of the country. Up to 14 million Lebanese or people of Lebanese descent are estimated to be living abroad, from Latin and North America to Africa and Europe. These overseas communities are following and participating in Lebanese politics. Thus globally Hezbollah's Lebanese support base is superior than its number of members and sympathizers in Lebanon proper.

Yemen for instance has a decently large population and a large pool of loyal supporters within in the country with a similar GDP to Lebenon.

Yemen's per capita GDP is about five to six times below Lebanon's. In terms of development as well, it is behind.

If they receive alot of military assistance from Iran,

Supplying AnsarAllah is not as easy as assisting Hezbollah, to which Iran is connected through a direct land bridge via Iraq and Syria (disruption of this corridor having been one of the main objectives of the terrorist proxy war waged on Syria by the zionist regime, NATO and their regional clients).

Ansurallah have potential to really play with global economy.

This is correct. Though overall I don't see them quite surpassing HezbAllah in importance for the reasons mentioned.

When it comes to geography the fact that Lebanon's sharing a border with Occupied Palestine and that the zionist regime is within range of HezbAllah's weapons adds relevance to the Lebanese Resistance.

At any rate both movements are authentic grassroots forces which proved their prowess on the battlefield, and each has its own significant function within the Resistance Axis, of which both are strategic components. We could say such comparisons aren't too relevant at the end of the day.
 
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