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Iranian Chill Thread

Look at the last time Toman had near parity with the dollar. That was 2010. I was exchanging $1 USD for 1150-1200 toman back then.

Times were good for Iranians. Massive oil revenues. No real sanctions yet. Trade with Europe. banking system was still free from sanctions. Iranians were traveling abroad. Etc.

Iran GDP 2010 $490B
Iran GDP 2012 $600B

Source: world bank

Now let’s do a thought experiment shall we:

From 2012 to 2019 Iran basically was still shackled by sanctions and brief JCPOA era of exporting oil. Then came a once in a century pandemic in 2020 that shut down the world basically. Add to that Trump maximum sanctions and Oil plummeted to historical lows.

You are telling me during this period of 2013-2021 that Iran’s GDP magically grew by half a trillion dollars?
I'm not suggesting anything. I'm asking you for what you believe is a reasonable figure per your estimates.

What do you think the REAL GDP is currently?
 
These classical WESTERN ideas have spotty success rates at best. The future is automation and universal basic income. Forcing populations into 'labor' is not the answer and never has been. Even the term 'labor' is terribly offensive and relegates humanity to beasts of servitude. Every penny not spent on automation and REDUCTION of human labor is a dagger into the hearts of the very humans we intend to help.
Beware of this automation business. It will leave millions of people out of jobs (perhaps tens of millions).

And anyway, full automation is going to take decades to become the norm. For now, plenty of people will be required in labour to set up desalination plants, lay railroads, man factories etc.
 
@TheImmortal

Still remember your prediction of a short Ukraine- Russia war with limited to no land gain for Russians

Donbass offensive is still very slow and grinding for both sides. 90% of Russia‘s current gains were made in first 2 weeks. So everything has gone largely as I thought it would when everyone was saying Russia is going to take over everything.

Not even retired Russian generals are calling it a successful campaign. It was designed as a blitzkreig now it’s morphed into Iran and Iraq war basically in terms of the grind.

I don’t know how anyone can look at that war and not say Ukrainian resistance was very formidable. Yes Eastern Ukraine is now bombed to bits. Most people here were saying Kiyv will fall. Now we are waiting for Donbass and Luchnask to fall.

I'm not suggesting anything. I'm asking you for what you believe is a reasonable figure per your estimates.

What do you think the REAL GDP is currently?

I don’t know. But 1.1T is far fetched given where GDP was in 2012 (start of Toman’s
Fall to 2,500-3,000)

That would mean we would have had double digit GDP growth for most years after 2012 which we know is not true. Iran GDP contracted several of those years.

And GDP like all economic indicators need to be taken in conjunction with other indicators like unemployment, wage growth, average income, inflation, etc

example USA is #1 GDP correct?

1970: Average home price 17,000 USD
2022: Average home price 400,000+ USD

1970: Average median income 10,000 USD
2022: Average median household income 65,000 USD

Which America was more prosperous for the average citizen?
 
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It's funny to see France and Turkey in a bunker working together. (other thread):wub: :D

Population rank 17-18
Oil production rank 7
Gas production rank 3
Steel production rank 11
Cement production rank 13
University students 4-5 million
Healthcare system that covers up to 60% costs of almost 85 million.
Ability to produce food of almost 85 million people ( and distribute it weirdly )
400-500K Army which produces most if it needs at home.

Are these characteristics of 20-30th rank economy(world bank data) ? or is it 10-20 rank (IMF data) ?

Russia GDP is 1.4T or so maybe less now with sanctions. Can we agree on this?

Let’s continue:

Russia energy exports:
7.8M BPD of oil
210Bcm of natural gas

Iran energy exports
1M BPD of oil
12.5bcm

Now tell me again how Iran’s GDP is 1.2T?
 
Russia GDP is 1.4T or so maybe less now with sanctions. Can we agree on this?

Let’s continue:

Russia energy exports:
7.8M BPD of oil
210Bcm of natural gas

Iran energy exports
1M BPD of oil
12.5bcm

Now tell me again how Iran’s GDP is 1.2T?
Look at the gap between 1.4T and 4.3T (PPP).this 1.4 is a choice and that 4.3 is potential.Real place of Russian economy is in a better place.

I mean with assumtion of accuracy of current Russian data, Russia has potential to become ~3.5 T economy.

Oil and gas are not even 15% of Iran's economy.
 
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Look at the gap between 1.4T and 4.3T (PPP).this 1.4 is a choice and that 4.3 is potential.Real place of Russian economy is in a better place.

You didn’t answer my question. I was not talking about PPP.

Iran is not a G-10 economy. I mean implying so is a bit preposterous. It DOES have G-10
And even G-7 potential in my opinion in the future assuming it doesn’t stay under barbaric sanctions forever and can export its tech and products to the world.
 



You didn’t answer my question. I was not talking about PPP.

Iran is not a G-10 economy. I mean implying so is a bit preposterous. It DOES have G-10
And even G-7 potential in my opinion in the future assuming it doesn’t stay under barbaric sanctions forever and can export its tech and products to the world.
Before sanctions oil was 80-90$ and gas was 2.5$.now gas is 8$ and oil is 110$ does it kill Russian economy if things they say about their selling price(70-75$)are true ? which I highly doubt it.
 
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Before sanctions oil was 80-90$ and gas was 2.5$.now gas is 8$ and oil is 110$ does it kill Russian economy if things they say about their selling price(70-75$) which I highly doubt it.


Russia makes profit regardless

Russian Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin said oil extraction costs in Russia were unacceptable at the current price of hydrocarbon. For the production cycle, they range from $15 to $45 per barrel, he said.


Russian extract is actually pretty cheap less than $10. It’s paying investors/taxes/add on costs that bring it higher.

See article:

 
Russia makes profit regardless




Russian extract is actually pretty cheap less than $10. It’s paying investors/taxes/add on costs that bring it higher.

See article:

So sanctions failed to do economic damages ( or did a little bit) but real damage comes from trust and connection issues between Russia and west.

Another similar one is case of UK stealing Venezuelan money and gold which sends message of "if you are not part of us this might happen to you".Venezuela might have lost 10$ B but a lot of other neutral and ally countries are taking notes.

In long run UK may be losing a lot more than these few billions they gained and evaluating these things are very hard because usually they are invisible.
 

Iran, Oman sign 12 cooperation documents

Iran, Oman sign 12 cooperation documents
President Raisi arrived in the Omani capital earlier today upon an invitation by Omani Sultan Haitham bin Tariq.

The Iranian president's visit to Muscat took place in line with the new Iranian government’s policy to strengthen all-out cooperation with the neighboring countries.

The 12 cooperation documents were signed by the Iranian Ministers of Industry, Mine and Trade, Foreign Affairs, Road and Urban Development, and the head of the Trade Promotion Organization with their Omani counterparts.
 
I'm not suggesting anything. I'm asking you for what you believe is a reasonable figure per your estimates.

What do you think the REAL GDP is currently?
Divide the IMF GDP figures by 6, That is Iran's real GDP.
 
Are you serious ? Realistically the war has only lasted 3 months. 3 months is not a long time for a war. Wars last for years. 3 months and you're already comparing this to the Iran-Iraq war ? I'm sorry but I don't think it's a fair comparison.

Are you actually keeping up with what is going on in the Donbas ? Things are not looking good for Ukraine. Russia recently took 2400 more prisoners at Mariupol and liberated the entire city. Severodonetsk is the large bastion under Ukrainian control in the Lugansk region and it's surrounded from the north, east and south east.

The Popasnaya bulge keeps growing and they're now on the verge of outflanking the entire Severodonetsk area from the west. Russia recently blew up the bridge leading into Severodonetsk so there are now 2000-3000 Ukranian troops basically surrounded with nowhere to go.

At Izium and other locations, all Ukranian counter offensives have failed miserably. In a recent failed offensive, Ukraine lost 300+ troops and dozens of tanks and armored vehicles. Russia is currently 30 km away from Kramatorsk from the north. When Severodonetsk falls they will have be able to storm Kramatorsk from the north and east, from 3 pincers.

Currently there is an 11km Russian convoy heading to the Donbas to reinforce/strengthen Russian positions before the final push to Kramatorsk. If Kramatorsk falls, the battle for the Donbas is basically over. After that if Ukraine doesn't want to negotiate Russia will likely go for Odessa.

The Ukrainians were able to prevent the Russians from taking or surrounding their major cities and they deserve credit for that, but the fact of the matter is that the Russians never intended to fight for those cities. They believed that the central government would flee and that those cities would fall.

Essentially they were expecting a situation similar to Crimea. When they realized that the Ukrainians would not fold and were willing to fight, they quickly adapted to the situation and changed their priorities. Since then the Russians have been steadily making progress and the way things are going now, I'm guessing that this war will last another 3-4 months, with Russia coming out on top.

1653375552073.png


As you can see with the above map, the Popasnaya bulge is expanding towards a main road that leads to Severodonetsk. As I mentioned the Russians destroyed the bridge leading out of Severodonetsk, therefore 2000-3000 Ukrainians troops in Severodonetsk are now trapped with nowhere to go. If the Russians outflank them from the west, it's all over.

In Mariupol the Ukrainian high command made the mistake of ordering their troops to remain in the city even after they were surrounded. This ultimately led to the capture of 4000 or more Ukrainian troops. However now in Severodonetsk, even if the Ukrainians want to break out to avoid encirclement, they won't be able to. So the Ukrainians can't reinforce the town and their troops can't escape the town even when an encirclement seems inevitable. Talk about being stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Donbass offensive is still very slow and grinding for both sides. 90% of Russia‘s current gains were made in first 2 weeks. So everything has gone largely as I thought it would when everyone was saying Russia is going to take over everything.

Not even retired Russian generals are calling it a successful campaign. It was designed as a blitzkreig now it’s morphed into Iran and Iraq war basically in terms of the grind.

I don’t know how anyone can look at that war and not say Ukrainian resistance was very formidable. Yes Eastern Ukraine is now bombed to bits. Most people here were saying Kiyv will fall. Now we are waiting for Donbass and Luchnask to fall.



I don’t know. But 1.1T is far fetched given where GDP was in 2012 (start of Toman’s
Fall to 2,500-3,000)

That would mean we would have had double digit GDP growth for most years after 2012 which we know is not true. Iran GDP contracted several of those years.

And GDP like all economic indicators need to be taken in conjunction with other indicators like unemployment, wage growth, average income, inflation, etc

example USA is #1 GDP correct?

1970: Average home price 17,000 USD
2022: Average home price 400,000+ USD

1970: Average median income 10,000 USD
2022: Average median household income 65,000 USD

Which America was more prosperous for the average citizen?

I suggest adding up the IMF and World Bank figures and dividing them by two, thereby getting an average.

1.7 trillion + 200 billion = 1.9 trillion divided by 2 = 950 billion

The previous IMF figure was 1.4 trillion so let's say 800 billion ? That seems more than fair. Because you can't disregard the IMF figure but at the same time you can't disregard the World Bank figure, so then take an average, does that make sense ?

So roughly $290 billion. Hm, that's not really stellar but it's not too shabby either.

I see potential to do a lot of things annually.
 
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