There is an Israeli base in Eriteria not far from Iran's own base in Eriteria. Something could easily be looped
You don’t want to bring a new theater into the shadow war especially overtly (all over the news embarrassing the opposing country).
This Ebril target gives Israel a face save. They don’t have to publically respond. They can say nothing was there and Iran is crazy. Like Assad said when Israel bombed its plutonium reactor being built by NK. No one knew about it and thus Assad said it was just an empty factory.
Now if it was one or two Iranian drones that attack a site. I would say maybe you are correct and it’s a phantom attack against nothing for propaganda purposes. But usage of BM’s raises a political cost to Iran, it tells its neighbors to reinforce their own missile programs and it gives the West a new excuse to say Iranian missiles are a “terror” the region that have to be negotiated on. I know this because I had family in IRGC and know how they think. They are very calculating almost to a fault where it becomes negative (too cautious).
So for 6-12 BMs to be launched (the equivalent of Al-Assad attack), it would have to be approved by Supreme Leader himself and the target would have to be meticulously selected by General Hajizadeh (leader of missile force) because of the nature of BMs being used vs a suicide drone, or a MALE UAV, or a CM.
How do you see this unfolding
There will be a deal most likely. Everyone wins, Iran gets to sell 2M BPD for at least 3 more years at extremely elevated price ($100+) and get access to $150B in foreign currency reserves to rebuild its economy and add to its military. The US gets to kick the can down the road and focus on China great power game of 22nd century.
I think if Republican gets elected in 2024, this deal is getting ripped up. But Iran is preparing a underground centrifuge production and enrichment hall in a mountain near Natanz. Based on IAEA inspectors the hall and facility is “huge” and will be even bigger than Fordow and allow Iran to assemble and enrich all in one spot that is impervious to attack and Sabotage.
Iran didn’t have this before. You can thank Israel for this since its Mossad attacks gave Iran an excuse to build the site without much pushback from the world.
So in 2024 iran will have the facility and the advanced centrifuges (IR-6) ready to enrich quickly to weapons grade and restart this whole nuclear blackmail football again. Thus Iran won’t get caught empty handed like the first JCPOA exit where it naively believed the West was going to change its approach to Iran.
West will never change against Turkey, Iran, Russia, and China. They are marked for destruction either socially (color revolutions) or kinetically (WW3).
I think WW3 starts before 2030. I hope I am wrong, but the chips are falling into place across many different layers I follow. It’s almost prophetic how it’s building up.
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