Iranian Chill Thread

[QWECXZ]

I'm sorry but Turkey as an economic model to be envied ? NO! 2/3rd of people in Turkey only use USD now. Look where they were 15 years ago ? Hmmm... 1 USD was worth 1.2 Lira 15 years ago. Now it's 14 Lira.

Indonesia, Brazil, Nigeria will become large and developed consumer markets but they will never be leading nations in terms of cutting edge technological development. Even India has a long way to go.

Sure India will likely have the worlds largest populations in a few decades but women not having access to contraception is not a good thing in the long run. How are these nations going to feed these sprawling, massive populations ? This will put them at a major disadvantage in the global market.

In a few years we will see if reviving the JCPOA was even worth it. Even if the Democrats win another 4 years, what about the next 4 years after that ? Sure Iran will get a massive economic boost out of the JCPOA revival. Iran will get a surge of funds and technology.

But it will only be worth it if Iran's economy is better prepared to avoid being shocked no matter what subsequent US administrations decide to do. If Iran absorbs as much economic benefits as possible in these next 3 years and then in theory Trump comes along and cancels the deal, then Iran will be precisely where it was, except it received a massive surge in between.

Will the sacrifice be worth it ? Well if Trump makes such a move and the rumors are true, then afterwards Iran will have the legal right under UN law to enrich to 60%. In that case, it won't take Iran long to recoup any losses. It's honestly extremely difficult to weigh any pros and cons when it comes to this issue. It's one of those issues where history will be the best judge.

As a person that has visited Turkey several times, the country is progressing really fast. Their infrastructure is changing really fast. 15 years ago Turkey was hardly seen as a regional power comparable to Iran and Saudi Arabia in terms of regional influence, now it is surpassing both countries.

Turkey is part of the E7 countries.
E7 countries are China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Mexico and Turkey. G7 countries are the US, the UK, France, Germany, Japan, Canada and Italy.
In 1995, the economies of E7 countries were half the size of the G7 countries. In 2015, E7 and G7 became nearly the same size. In 2040, E7 is projected to be at least twice the size of G7 economies. Do you see the difference now? Do you think the current structure of the UN Security Council with only 5 permanent members who will be neither economic powers (except for the US) nor military powers (except for the nuclear states and again, the US in particular) can keep the global order then? I don't think so. The UN Security Council will have to change undoubtedly.

As for Nigeria, Nigeria is expected to become one of the top 15 economies of the world by 2040. Nigeria has 200 million people and about half of the population is aged below 30 which shows a tremendous potential for growth in decades ahead. In 2040, Nigeria's population will reach 330 million people and again, the majority of the population will be young. Literacy rate is acceptable by African standards and stands at 63%, which seems low because of the older generations mostly. The younger generation is much better educated. Unlike most Middle Eastern countries that have nothing to offer but oil because we live in dry lands and our lands are not adequate for agriculture, Nigeria's yearly precipitation is 1,200 mm. Almost 10 times than your average Middle Eastern country.

Brazil has a well-developed aerospace industry. Something we have been trying to do for decades and have failed constantly. Brazil has Embraer which produces all kinds of civilian and military aircraft while Iran, after decades of investment in this area, has not progressed much. Regarding the engine technology, Iran and Brazil are very close. Brazil enjoys Iran's technological expertise while it also has the world's largest forests.

And I think you don't disagree that India will become much more powerful than it is in 2040, so I am not going to write about it.

 

[Dariush the Great]

people who are against nuclear Iran , are generally against "Iran" as whole

You will find them in the ultra religious camp. They are enemies of Iran. Must be arrested and tried for treason.

 

[Stryker1982]

people who are against nuclear Iran , are generally against "Iran" as whole

It would make all the economic pain somewhat acceptable

 

[aryobarzan]

The war that is waged on Iran is "Economics war". US treasury hired 500 economists to track Iranian economy and sabotage every where possible. They got lucky Rohanni election was a catalyst to accelerate the effects of that war (remember him selling Irani Gold to prop up Rial) ...Iran's progress is now hinged upon the new president winning that war..I am happy to see him and others are well aware of it..

Iran belongs to the Top 10..to get there we have to ditch all this nonsense about supporting every tom, dick and harry that rise up and want freedom..lets think about Iran..Once we are up there we can worry about tom dick and harry if they pay their respects

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497650174935642116

 

[Stryker1982]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497650174935642116

Everyday this goes on, the Russians will get more and more harsher in their methods. The strongholds like Kiev and Kharkiv may end up like Mosul if they cant move.

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497675353787191296

Russia is now Iran 2.0. I expect them to be kicked out of SWIFT within a week at this rate.

 

[Stryker1982]

Holy shit,

UNCONFIRMED: Russian Paratroopers landing over Kiev.

It may also be smoke clouds but hard to tell.

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497665747253972993

 

[sha ah]

Then how will the EU and especially Germany pay for Russian gas ? Will they pay Russia in pallets of cash ? gold ? private jets ? trucks ? I wonder

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497675353787191296

Russia is now Iran 2.0. I expect them to be kicked out of SWIFT within a week at this rate.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497595498991177734

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497675353787191296

Russia is now Iran 2.0. I expect them to be kicked out of SWIFT within a week at this rate.

 

[SalarHaqq]

A2/D2 abilities, whilst an important part of the modern Iranian defense literature, will be subjected to attrition the longer any conflict goes. There is no guarantee that the Americans (hypothetically) wont manage to launch a massive and comprehensive strike destroying/crippling many missile launching sites and bases in the first hours of conflict.

This is why a modern air-force, complete with air-tankers, AWACS, long-range RADARS and top-of-the-line fighters is so important. There still needs to be a conventional answer the the enemies air-force.

Another point to consider when discussing attrition warfare is this: even then, Iran's ballistic and cruise missiles, UAV's and anti-ship missile batteries will prove more survivable than a modern air force composed of top of the line fighters and AWACS, especially if going against US air power. Iran's asymmetric weapons are simply easier to conceal and protect than whatever aircraft Iran might gain access to.

So as far I'm concerned, when it comes to this aspect too, an extensive modern air force does not seem capable enough to justify the needed investment when compared to the formula currently put into application by Iran.

It should be noted that the USN/USAF along with regional forces can stage several carrier strike groups outside Iran's missile envelope and launch a high sortie rate/sustained bombing campaign whilst eating their own losses if they view the outcome to be worth it.

Such an action would not enable them to reach the kind of sortie rates necessary to achieve truly far reaching, decisive gains, like for instance "regime change", destruction of Iran's military capability or setting Iran back several decades like they did with Iraq during so-called Operation Desert Storm.

And in view of the damage and cost they would incur in return, such scenarii are quasi impossible to materialize.

 

[Stryker1982]

Then how will the EU and especially Germany pay for Russian gas ? Will they pay Russia in pallets of cash ? gold ? private jets ? trucks ? I wonder

I expecting China to assist Russia in the background to help them circumvent some of these issues of finance.

We do it with Turkey, UAE and China, they will find their ways if they havent' already prepared them with China and India

 

[sha ah]

Honestly Turkey would be doing great if not for ERGOnomics. If the inflation rate had been kept slightly higher than the average for the last few years, then today Turkey's economy would be doing fine, but because of Erdogan's policies, Turkey's economy is currently in the gutter.

Nigeria, Brazil and the rest, yes they should do great, however they will not surpass the US, EU or east Asia (Japan, Korea) in terms of being able to develop cutting edge technology.

India, their population will swell but that may not be a good thing as the state may not be able to feed such an exploding population. At the same time, I don't know if India will ever be able to surpass China economically.

Large does not necessarily mean efficient or productive. I believe that India is quite disorganized and their feudal caste system will really prevent them from ever progressing to become a top 2-3 global power.

 

[Stryker1982]

Honestly Turkey would be doing great if not for ERGOnomics. If the inflation rate had been kept slightly higher than the average for the last few years, then today Turkey's economy would be doing fine, but because of Erdogan's policies, Turkey's economy is currently in the gutter.

View attachment 819068

Nigeria, Brazil and the rest, yes they should do great, however they will not surpass the US, EU or east Asia (Japan, Korea) in terms of being able to develop cutting edge technology.

India, their population will swell but that may not be a good thing as the state may not be able to feed such an exploding population. At the same time, I don't know if India will ever be able to surpass China economically.

Large does not necessarily mean efficient or productive. I believe that India is quite disorganized and their feudal caste system will really prevent them from ever progressing to become a top 2-3 global power.

Turkish people looked at iran with envy and wanted to have Iran's type of influence in the region, so they voted him in, and naturally his "Islamic Economics" damaged the economy.

Then how will the EU and especially Germany pay for Russian gas ? Will they pay Russia in pallets of cash ? gold ? private jets ? trucks ? I wonder

Honestly, if Russia is cut from Swift and still doesn't sell us aircraft or production line for Su-35's than i really don't know what to say about them

 

[BigMelatonin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497605828941164546

War is only bad if it's the Euros that are dying.