Iranian Chill Thread

[thetutle]

They will get it very soon.
My point was that best of best should be used first.

There is no indication they will get it soon.

Best may not always be best to be used first.

From my understanding, an overwhelming first strike with all your available missiles launched at once will be the way to go. But that does not fit into political objectives, which will be to drag this out over years and disrupt their economy and way of life.

What Isarel would like is everyone to hit everyone with all you have in the first 12 hours and then rebuild over the next 10 years. Iran will probably launch 20 missiles per day over the next 10 years.

 

[Stryker1982]

Based on this thread, I updated the defense network. The Israel AD network is probably the tightest, if not the most secure in the world based on sheer density and number of Systems. Probably quite similar to the Moscow AD zone.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1475153104073105409

North of Tel Aviv and South of Haifa:
David Sling -> x128 available to fire SAMs
Arrow 2 -> x48 available to fire SAMs
Arrow 3 -> x48 available to fire SAMs
Green Pine Radar

South of Tel Aviv:
Arrow 2 -> x48 available to fire SAMs
PAC 2 GEM -> x48 available to fire SAMs
Green Pine Radar

East of Tel Aviv:
Arrow 3 -> x48 available to fire SAMs
Arrow 3 -> x48 available to fire SAMs
Green Pine Radar

Nevatim Airbase (Near Negev Nuclear Research Facility/Dimona)
Arrow 3 -> x48 available to fire SAMs (It is unlikely their is an Arrow-3 here at all)

Southern Negev Desert
THAAD (USA Operated) -> x48 THAAD C-2
AN/TPY-2 Radar

Positions are accurate based on OSINT. I exaggerated their AD network little bit to make it more challenging and under the assumption that not all sites are known, and to accommodate for future deployments (Hence the high number of Arrow-3).
All in all the number of SAMs that can be fired simultaneously is 192 excluding the David Sling.

EXPENDITURES:
------------------
22x Arrow 3
8x THAAD C-2
2x Arrow 2

EXPENDITURES:
------------------
16x Fateh-110/3 A-110B [450kg HE Conventional]
Result: (1 of 16) were able to impact the site.

In terms of fighting power the AD network was still quite intact and ready to fight more if I shot more. Somehow, when I kept running the simulation, the 1 missile would sneak through after a failure of interception. I allow a 2:1 ratio for interceptor to incoming missile, both missed, and it was too late to launch more SAMs as the calculation projected an impossible interception. Unless their was a PAC-2/3, or David Sling point defense at Dimona, it cannot be done with the current configuration of the IADS network.
Is it surprising?, a little bit but when I thought about the Gaza War in 2021, their was a number of launches towards Tel Aviv from Gaza, given it is such a dense network protecting the city, their were still 2 missiles or so that managed to sneak through, so such things are possible.

Clearly not good enough. I need more firepower. I want to be able to hit the site atleast 25 times for good measure.

So I went to my good friend (Bakhtaran missile city) in Kermanshah.
Deployed 3 battalions of Ghader-110's (Emad does not exist in the simulator). Each battalion consists of 6 TELs and missiles
And assumed their were 5 silos at the site ready for simultaneous launch (I don't know the real number).
Total fire power added -> 23 missiles.

5 Runs with same results

EXPENDITURES:
------------------
61x Arrow 3
16x THAAD C-2
2x Arrow 2

EXPENDITURES:
------------------
16x Fateh-110/3 A-110B [450kg HE Conventional]
23x Ghadr-110 [Conventional 1200kg HE] RV
Result: (1 of 39) were able to impact the site. All the missiles launched from Iran were intercepted, but at a heavy cost of THAAD and Arrow-3 usage. I need Moaaaar.

The glory of battle: The red missiles don't look like much but because they are fired simultaneously, some of the red missiles are actually 6 missiles that become stacked when zoomed out!

Ran it again, but with more firepower (activating Tabriz Base)

EXPENDITURES:
------------------
93x Arrow 3
20x THAAD C-2
11x Arrow 2
Total: 124

EXPENDITURES:
------------------
16x Fateh-110/3 A-110B [450kg HE Conventional]
52x Ghadr-110 [Conventional, Shahab-3A Mod]
6x Sejil-2 [Conventional]
Total: 74
Result: (10 of 74) were able to impact the site. 58 launched from Iran

Current Battle Space:

I will keep playing with, but no need to clutter the chill thread with it, unless someone wants to see something specific.

 

[sha ah]

So you're saying that Patriots are not good for Turkey because they can't shoot down Greek or Israeli jets in a potential conflict ? But Russia is not giving Turkey the software codes for the S-400 anyways. so basically against Russia or anyone Russia chooses, Turkish S-400s are useless.

20 Bayraktars were shot down in Libya by export variant Pantsirs which were being operated by uneducated rebels. Realistically the Ukrainian Bayraktars stand no chance at all against Russia's air defense network which is multi layered and extremely potent.

No Erdogan lost billions of dollars that were put down as a deposit towards the F-35. Under his watch Turkeys currency has also gone down the drain, from 1.2 Lira per USD to 13 today. The terrible thing about it is that it's so un-neccessary. If he simply left the interest rate up to economists, everything would have been fine. However he's a footballer who thinks he's an economist. The end result is what you see today.

So Turkey and Pakistan are both economically screwed and Azerbaijan is too tiny. Pakistan recently purchased the J-10 from China and Turkey recently tried to put its F-35 deposit towards dozens of F-16s and 80 modernization kits. Unfortunately for Turkey the US refuses to give their deposit back, claiming that Turkey forfeit the deposit by purchasing the S-400.

Anyways my point is, if neither Pakistan or Turkey can build a 4th generation fighter jet, how are they going to manage a 5th generation fighter jet ? Turkey's Altay tank project is also stuck in the mud and their solution is Ukrainian engines. So if Turkey can't build a proper tank engine or even modernize a 4th generation, 40 year old fighter jet, how can Turkey build a 5th generation fighter jet ? It just seems highly improbable. Maybe with Russian/Chinese help or parts. Honestly they're better off buying the Checkmate.

Btw because the Chinese copied so many Russian weapons systems, their new weapons are nearly impossible to tamper with. Turkey doesn't have the software codes and the vital maintenance is done by Russian technicians. If Turkey tampers with the S-400 in any way, they will most likely have to pay a hefty fine and that way they will never receive the software codes. The Chinese tried to mess around with Russian SU-35s and the Russians found out.

The SU-35s are as survivable as F16s or JF-17s. They're not as good as Rafales. Atleast not the variants Russia exported so far, but they're very maneuverable and extremely lethal.

The S-300 fiasco was because of UN sanctions. Those sanctions are long gone and that was under Medvedev. Also the geo political climate is much different today than it was under Obama. The US has shown its true colors and recently Egypt and Indonesia cancelled their SU-35 orders from Russia. That doesn't leave Russia with all that many options really. Only time will tell but we will see.

Are Bayraktars prevented form destroying modern Russian air defences now? Ask the Armenians. The only thing that could stop the Bayraktars are probably the Russian Airforce, which the Armenians didn't have or couldn't deploy. Russians could sue their aircraft to eliminate bayraktars but at what cost? Ukrnains air defence will slow them down. Karabakh war has show the limitation of Air defence systems. But so did the Iranian attacks on Saudi oil facilities.These things are next to useless against drones and cruise missiles. And in a world where an AA missile costs less than a drone, you can see the problem.



Turkey doesn't want Patriots. They are useless at shooting down NATO aircraft because use US has the source codes and because their Friend or Foe ID systems. Turkey wants to be able to shoot down French and Greek Aircraft. Maybe Israeli Aircraft. Patriots dont provide this capability.



Erdogan saved his country tens of billions on Aircraft which would not help turkey fight any future conflict. Its a great aircraft but it needs constant US servicing and updates and can only be used on targets that the US approves. Turkey wants to be able to Bomb who it wants, the it wants. F16-s produced and upgraded in Turkey are better for this.



Erdogan is Pursuing an independent path, it is inevitable that he will burn bridges, but Turey has decided to become an independent country that makes its own decisions, and that the price you have to pay.



Good. They have to try.



If 320 million people can't produce a modern fighter jet, they dont deserve a modern figure jet.



Turkey probably already has all the s400 it needs. It has tested their capabilities against its drones and Air Force. so it knows how to defeat it. And yes, it knows its an export version, but its still similar to the S400 in Russian hands.

Turkey will also, will pull them apart, reverse engineer what it can, learn what it can from them and then store them in the event it needs to use it against one of their NATO allies.



As above, it probably does not need anymore s400's. and its not to save face but rather to wiggle out of a deal which Russia wants more. turkey probably has all the S400's it will ever need.




I dont think there is anything impulsive about his decisions. They are calculated to makeTurkey into an independent decision maker which makes decisions based upon its own interest and not for the interests of others.


They haven't got them yet. and if you see the Russian promises to supply Iran weapons like the 15 year wait for the s300, I would not bet on Iran getting any top of the line Russian equipment.

Anyway, I down think su-35's are very survivable in the region if it comes to serious conflict. They are a good delivery platform if you will bomb some of the gulf countries or some rebels in the desert. but they wont survive long against USAF or patriots. Drones and missiles are far more robust platforms to achieve any military goal.

 

[aryobarzan]

The US has shown its true colors and recently Egypt and Indonesia cancelled their SU-35 orders from Russia. That doesn't leave Russia with all that many options really. Only time will tell but we will see.

The cancellation of SU-35's orders (Egypt is still not confirmed) was due to the US side imposing CAATSA ( Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) on them. If they proceed with orders they will be sanctioned.
This limits Russian side with markets for SU-35 limited with only few countries with deep pockets such as India, Algeria and Iran to buy ..(I hope Iran does not buy and goes for domestic development) .

 

[thetutle]

So you're saying that Patriots are not good for Turkey because they can't shoot down Greek or Israeli jets in a potential conflict ? But Russia is not giving Turkey the software codes for the S-400 anyways. so basically against Russia or anyone Russia chooses, Turkish S-400s are useless.

s400 does not have friend or Foe identifier. the patriot does. So you will more likely be able to shoot NATO aircraft with s400 and you will have zero chance with patriot. Yes Russia keeps the s400 codes, so if they really wanted to prevent turkey using them they are probably able to. So yes, Russia could easily make them useless. And that's the case with all tech. During the Falklands, the British demanded the French "switch off" their anti ship missiles after they sunk a British ship. The French did.

20 Bayraktars were shot down in Libya by export variant Pantsirs which were being operated by uneducated rebels. Realistically the Ukrainian Bayraktars stand no chance at all against Russia's air defense network which is multi layered and extremely potent.

thats some nice Russian propaganda. The mighty Russian Air defence. The Armenians believed it too. The only thing that will save Russia is the airforce which will down the drones with ease. But the Ukranians have Air defences that will make that an expensive hobby for the Russian Air Force.

No Erdogan lost billions of dollars that were put down as a deposit towards the F-35. Under his watch Turkeys currency has also gone down the drain, from 1.2 Lira per USD to 13 today. The terrible thing about it is that it's so un-neccessary.

He might have lost billions, but he saved Turkey from buying these F35's which would have not been great for Turkey as any user is forced into a very tight embrace by America. Turkish lira was 18 USD. Now its 13. We will see what happens.

If he simply left the interest rate up to economists, everything would have been fine. However he's a footballer who thinks he's an economist. The end result is what you see today

Turkey has the highest interest rates in OECD. We will see the end result of Erdogan policies. But it should be noted that massive interest rates did not stop the slide of the Lira in the 1990's. But Erdogan seems to have stopped it now.

Anyways my point is, if neither Pakistan or Turkey can build a 4th generation fighter jet, how are they going to manage a 5th generation fighter jet ?

As I've said, if Turkey, Pakistan and AZ, cant build a jet fighter, they dont deserve to have one. thats 330 million people we are talking about.

So if Turkey can't build a proper tank engine or even modernize a 4th generation, 40 year old fighter jet, how can Turkey build a 5th generation fighter jet ?

As I've said, they have to build it or they wont have it. Invent it or steal it. its the only way.

Turkey doesn't have the software codes and the vital maintenance is done by Russian technicians. If Turkey tampers with the S-400 in any way, they will most likely have to pay a hefty fine and that way they will never receive the software codes.

What fine by Russia? Turkey owns those missies, they will do with them as they want. they were probably used to learn how to defeat them first and foremost. this info was probably shared with USA. For a price.

The S-300 fiasco was because of UN sanctions.

Russia approved those sanctions, they are permanent member of the security council. who are you kidding here?

 

[aryobarzan]

The Trend with the 3 military giants of our planet (US, Russia,China) is that as the technology has become so complicated they all will adopt some kind of CAATSA legislation to get a "captive" market for their products.. Yes China will do it and Russia will do it..If you buy these high priced, high tech military items from any one of them you will become their bitch...they will punish you if you want to diversify...ask Turkey, and Egypt..they did not know once they bought from the US and now they are not allowed to buy from any one else .

Iran should stay away from purchase of any "Turn Key" military item from any one of them no matter if they are friendly to Iran...Buy SU-35 or J-10 and you will be in their fishing net..

 

[aryobarzan]

Fantastic video about "Alien Life".

 

[Muhammad Saftain Anjum]

The Trend with the 3 military giants of our planet (US, Russia,China) is that as the technology has become so complicated they all will adopt some kind of CAATSA legislation to get a "captive" market for their products.. Yes China will do it and Russia will do it..If you buy these high priced, high tech military items from any one of them you will become their bitch...they will punish you if you want to diversify...ask Turkey, and Egypt..they did not know once they bought from the US and now they are not allowed to buy from any one else .

Iran should stay away from purchase of any "Turn Key" military item from any one of them no matter if they are friendly to Iran...Buy SU-35 or J-10 and you will be in their fishing net..

You are giving too much credit to big three, there are other players also for defence equipments. Let me give you example:
We required Long range maritime patrol aircraft for anti submarine warfare.
We bought a commercial jet from Brazilian company Embrear. Hired Italian company Leonardo to convert them into Military level LMPA. No need of big three.

Our whole Al Khalid Tank series contain Engines from Ukraine, Franch thermal imagers etc. With passage of time, we just decreased Chinese components from our mainstay tanks.
Our Babar class Corvettes are from Turkey with IP transfer.
For deep strike into India we bought H2 and H4 from South Africa, later derived a nuclear warheads carrying Raad 1 &2 from this. Again no big three involvement.
My point is with passage of time other countries are also rising like Turkey, Indonesia, S. Africa, UAE, India , France (already big power), Sweden (though US influence is there but still), Germany (case like Sweden), Ukraine (for Tank engines, Anti tank missiles),Serbia ( armoured related equipments), South Korea ( they have recently introduced KF 21 though US influence is there),Italy ( we bought CAMM ER naval defence system, Spaada 2000 defence system, and much more from them , their Helicopter manufacturing is also first world class).


My point is there are lot of other countries for defence equipment. These big three can be handled with good diplomatic power.

 

[aryobarzan]

You are giving too much credit to big three, there are other players also for defence equipments. Let me give you example:
We required Long range maritime patrol aircraft for anti submarine warfare.
We bought a commercial jet from Brazilian company Embrear. Hired Italian company Leonardo to convert them into Military level LMPA. No need of big three.

Our whole Al Khalid Tank series contain Engines from Ukraine, Franch thermal imagers etc. With passage of time, we just decreased Chinese components from our mainstay tanks.
Our Babar class Corvettes are from Turkey with IP transfer.
For deep strike into India we bought H2 and H4 from South Africa, later derived a nuclear warheads carrying Raad 1 &2 from this. Again no big three involvement.
My point is with passage of time other countries are also rising like Turkey, Indonesia, S. Africa, UAE, India , France (already big power), Sweden (though US influence is there but still), Germany (case like Sweden), Ukraine (for Tank engines, Anti tank missiles),Serbia ( armoured related equipments), South Korea ( they have recently introduced KF 21 though US influence is there),Italy ( we bought CAMM ER naval defence system, Spaada 2000 defence system, and much more from them , their Helicopter manufacturing is also first world class).


My point is there are lot of other countries for defence equipment. These big three can be handled with good diplomatic power.

Buying individual components from them and Integrating them into a weapon system either by yourself or a third party is the smart way to go..buying "turn key" system is a no no..but they are not stupid...try to buy cutting edge engine from US or Russia will be very problematic..if a country can financially afford it the the in- house development is the best bet...why use your hard earned $$$to employ French or Itelian workers..why not give Pakistani engineers a chance to prove themselves.. or even team up with some one you like as is the case with Turkey and Pakistan for the frigate program..my point is avoide getting into the fishing net of the big three.

 

[Muhammad Saftain Anjum]

..why use your hard earned $$$to employ French or Itelian workers..why not give Pakistani engineers a chance to prove themselves

Well,our military uses Pakistani Engineers only when they see that no Foreign country will help now.
For example,in one incident, terrorists attacked PAF base and heavily damaged Saab 2000 Electronic Warfare aircraft.PAF went to Saab and asked them to repair the aircraft.Saab refused to repair it.Now PAF remembered oh we have engineers at PAC also.
Then they gave this aircraft to PAC.PAC repaired it and that aircraft is still in use.

So point is military use Pak defence corporations only when the foreign gates are closed completely.

 

[Shawnee]

The Trend with the 3 military giants of our planet (US, Russia,China) is that as the technology has become so complicated they all will adopt some kind of CAATSA legislation to get a "captive" market for their products.. Yes China will do it and Russia will do it..If you buy these high priced, high tech military items from any one of them you will become their bitch...they will punish you if you want to diversify...ask Turkey, and Egypt..they did not know once they bought from the US and now they are not allowed to buy from any one else .

Iran should stay away from purchase of any "Turn Key" military item from any one of them no matter if they are friendly to Iran...Buy SU-35 or J-10 and you will be in their fishing net..

I agree. Some are paying too much respect to buying these planes. It will change much less than they think on the ground.

 

[jauk]

صدق. اخلاص. تدبیر. شجاعت.

 

[Shawnee]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1477375859321294848

بحث داغ مهاجرت گروهی از سران انجمن اسلامی شریفه

هر کسی حق مهاجرت داره

اما هرکس رفت باهوش نیست
هر شریفی مهندس خوبی نیست

توی اینها مقاله چاپکن هست
سیگاری هست
دودرکن هست

اما همه اونها فهمیدند اسانترین راه رفتن و به پول رسیدن درس خوندن و چاپ مقاله شرو ور است​

 

[Hack-Hook]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1477375859321294848

بحث داغ مهاجرت گروهی از سران انجمن اسلامی شریفه

هر کسی حق مهاجرت داره

اما هرکس رفت باهوش نیست
هر شریفی مهندس خوبی نیست

توی اینها مقاله چاپکن هست
سیگاری هست
دودرکن هست

اما همه اونها فهمیدند اسانترین راه رفتن و به پول رسیدن درس خوندن و چاپ مقاله شرو ور است​

با مقاله سر و ور کسی دستت هیچی نمیده

 

[925boy]

This limits Russian side with markets for SU-35 limited with only few countries with deep pockets such as India, Algeria and Iran to buy ..(I hope Iran does not buy and goes for domestic development) .

whaat? Russia will sell soon, primarily to ease of or dissipate NATO and US military pressure, i've always thought Russia and China will use this tactic against US - sell deadly weapons to other US enemies, but Russia or China have to decide who will dominate/corner the foreign market of Iranian military demand, but maybe Iran will buy from multiple suppliers, for eg buy from countries based on niches of equipment needed.