Iranian Chill Thread

[Stryker1982]

Side stuff.

Economic situation in the west is not great.
US Federal Teasury is completely lieing about inflation.

Look at how they manipulate inflation statistics.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1439746189943980035

@TheImmortal Have you noticed major price changes?
@aryobarzan
@sha ah

In Canada, prices have changed alot, cheese, bread etc... more expensive.
In some industries I've seen prices increase by 40%+ minimum, particularly electronics.

They are saying it is transitory, but this is a lie and I really do believe we are close to the brink of another economic failure like 08' but probably worse due to the massive amount of public debt.

Since the start of the corona virus, M2 money supply has spiked up massively due to money printer going hard. Massive amount of bills are still being printed and circulating

So much so that Overnight Reverse Repo market has skyrocketed because major financial institutions have no idea where to invest with all their cash on hand, which leads me to believe that they are waiting for something...

Every night, major banks and institution in the United States deposit over a trillion USD and rising, for overnight interest gain. The Federal Treasury provides minimal interest for this deposit, and the next morning the money is returned to the recipients only to be redeposited the next day over and over again. On Firday a record total deposit was made to the tune of 1.2 trillion dollars. Why are these institutions depositing their money here, instead of land? Gold? Stock market? or anything esle?

I can't say for sure why, but my guess is that they believe their is a impending crash due to inflationary issues, and storing the money in these overnight treasury bills is the safest option to atleast earn a small profit from interest until the floodgates crash open.


China's second largest prosperity developer (Evergrande) is on the brink of bankruptcy. Unclear whether or not they will restructure their massive amount of debt or conduct a forced liquidation of assets.
If they complete the latter, this will cause a huge ripple in the Chinese economy and affect their US creditors as well. I don't' want to sound over alarmist, but the signs of major problems on the near term future are showing.
Evergrande stock value has been getting hammered every day, and a default would be similar to the Lehman brothers fall of 2008. I expect property values in China to fall hard.

 

[TheImmortal]

Side stuff.

Economic situation in the west is not great.
US Federal Teasury is completely lieing about inflation.

Look at how they manipulate inflation statistics.




@TheImmortal Have you noticed major price changes?
@aryobarzan
@sha ah

In Canada, prices have changed alot, cheese, bread etc... more expensive.
In some industries I've seen prices increase by 40%+ minimum, particularly electronics.

Well electronics because there is a world wide chip shortage which is affecting virtually every form of finished technology good. Travel because of excess demand from opening of economies from COVID.

Basically you have a sudden pent up demand that is not being met yet by the production curves of major world economies.

“transitory”

FED believes that this temporary and in due time suppliers will move production curves to match a stabilizing demand curve.

I do not believe inflation is truly happening

why?

Simple look at 30 YR and 10YR US treasury bonds. If the bond market truly saw high inflation on the horizon you would see these bonds going up to compensate because investors want the risk free rate of return + inflation premium. Instead in recent weeks you saw drops in the treasuries.

This tells me bond market

1) sees mundane growth on the horizon

2) sees muted inflation in the long term

Look at Japan it printed the living **** out of the yen and it couldn’t create true lasting inflation and experienced deflation at various times in last couple decades.

If you had TRUE inflation then there would be a demand for money, demand for money is non existent because companies are struggling to find ROI projects worth investing in. When demand and velocity of money is down, it’s hard to have inflation...stagflation maybe.

Also look at mortgage rates 2-3% historically low when there is true inflation in the economy banks wanted to be compensated on the potential for future payments to be worth less than present day. Yet we have seen low mortgage rates since the 2008 financial crisis.

So what does it all mean?

It means major problem with capitalistic engine and global economy because inflation is actually healthy and needed. Yet Since 2008 despite all the money printing inflation has been muted.

this is telling me demand for money is way down, velocity of money is way down, true capital intensive investments are way down, and inflation is “leaking” out of the US economy and being absorbed by emerging market countries in order to make their currencies more competitive for export of their products.

inflation? Bro don’t make me laugh. Fed wants you to desperate believe it’s pathetic attempt at inflation generation is working.

There hasn’t been major inflation since Reagan and Volker killed hyperinflation in the 80s

20% fed funds rate to 12% to 6% to 4-5% to 0%

Temporary inflation from a pandemic, supply bottlenecks, and recovering work face = / = true structural inflation that a healthy economy needs.

conclusion: barring another industrial Revolution (AI/Quantum computer/Space) that generates ACTUAL growth (not this net or negative growth fueled by debt BS) the global economy is in trouble in the long run.

Capitalism merely beat Communism. It was the better of the two models. Not the true model of the universe.

But modern capitalism biggest flaw was it relied on its own population to fuel most of the growth (GDP consumption) and it relied on the corporate governance model to make sound long lasting capital rich investments to fuel future growth.

well guess what happened?

corporate governance said f that I’ll just give it out as dividends to my shareholders and cut costs (thus improving financials) by cutting wage growth across the board and replacing it with automation whenever I can.

US government said ok and I’ll help that by ensuring this mass swarm movement of financial philosophy being enacted across the entire economy goes unimpeded. I’ll turn a blind eye to rising tuition costs (student loan debt), rising entitlement programs (Medicare, SS, etc), unnecessary wars, etc. I’ll make up the shortfall in growth by issuing more debt fueled growth knowing full well its a diminishing return feedback loop.

Then the US decided in last 2 decades to divide the country slowly but surely under this dumb “liberal vs conservative” “Democrat vs Republican” mantra to control the sheep (in this case evolved monkeys) in order to have its citizens/domestic population blame each other for the country’s problems and not the system itself. Thus allowing the system to escape any resemblance of accountability.

But wait the carnival show gets even better! Then an unintended consequence of this policy was that US’s own elected evolved monkeys (presidents, judges, congress) started drinking the kool aid too (number one rule about drug dealing...don’t use your own product bro) and now they too are actually believing this manipualition tactic as being true.

Deep state is [insert face_palm emoji] I would imagine.

But that’s a story for another day...

So now the two critical most parts of the capitalistic system.....(1) corporate governance/free market theory/private enterprise.... (2) domestic population consumption are not working properly.

In a nutshell they took the most important cog in the engine (the worker/civilian/domestic citizen) who is responsible for 70% of growth in the country and ****ed him so well over that he can’t consume like he needs to. Caused a permanent physiological change in how he consumes.

This in turn feeds the negative feedback loop to the corporate governance model of believing their subdue global growth in the horizon, thus don’t waste money on capital intensive projects with long and uncertain timelines. Thus creating a self fulfilling prophecy when growth doesn’t show up you say see I was right....and the cycle starts all over again.

So instead companies have engaged in financial engineering to create boosts in stock prices which in turn creates value in executives own stock options (which most executives compensation comes from). You can see how something with initially good intentions ends up creating unintended consequences.

Good in theory...however applied across the entire domestic economy means a massive game of musical chairs in who ends up with the short end of the stick....usually the government and the domestic citizen.

So no....inflation isn’t the problem. This massive negative feedback loop that was generated is the problem. And every country in the world (including Iran) is at risk. There is no easy solution. You are asking the entire system that has taken years of economic evolution (devolution?) to realign again.

Might as well ask a combustible engine to become a warp drive while you are at it.

 

[yavar]

 

[SalarHaqq]

Iran’s new nuclear chief wants fast overhaul of Arak reactor

Under 2015 deal, Tehran agreed to modify site so that it could not produce military-grade plutonium

www.timesofisrael.com

Important and good thing to see. @SalarHaqq

We gave this plutonium pathway up, the fastest and cheapest way to produce a bomb, and received nothing, now the mistake has to be fixed which will be costing money, manpower and time. Regardless, this new guy is making important decisions.

While they won't overtly say it's for military use, it can be reconfigured to function as such.

Since it took over, the Raisi administration has been gratifying us near exclusively with oustanding news. This should really be paid attention to by those who believe it makes no difference who leads the Iranian government, as well as by patriotic-minded Iranians who chose not to take part in the presidential election.

The IR-40 reactor at Arak is very much needed for R&D purposes namely to pave the way for indigenous construction of heavy water plants, as well as for the production of medical, industrial and agricultural isotopes, as a replacement for the 54 year old, limited capacity Tehran Research Reactor (TRR). IR-40's inactive status since the JCPOA came into effect is unacceptable indeed.

However, the Arak reactor isn't about providing Iran with a potential breakout capability: that role was always meant to been fulfilled by the uranium enrichment program. I believe PeeD explained it before in detail. In any case a static overground facility isn't practical nor survivable enough, therefore the plutonium pathway isn't the most appealing one for Iran. Uranium enrichment however, especially when carried out with newer generation, compact and highly performing centrifuges or even through laser devices (an expertise Iran acquired more than 20 years ago), which can be hidden away in strongly protected underground facilities, is clearly the preferable option.

 

[sha ah]

Prices are increasing for basic necessities all over the world. This has been partly caused by Covid which has caused shutdowns at various ports/factories in Asia. That's one of the inherent risks with having a global supply chain.

Some western countries have printed and borrowed massive amounts of capital and in some cases are giving away money basically for free. Of course flooding the market with capital will cause inflation.

Formula for “collapse:” Fed prints more in 2 years than in the past 100. (full show)

The US Government has printed more money in the past two years than they have in the previous 100! What does that mean for our economy? And when will the bottom fall out? RT Correspondent Faran Fronczak reports on the early returns of this money printing and its impact on inflation, which is...

www.rt.com

Will there be an economic downturn in the next two years ? Perhaps but even if there is, it will only be a temporary downturn. In the west, every 10-20 years there is always some sort of economic downturn or recession but it usually doesn't last more than 6 months to a year until the market begins to bounce back.

The US dollar will remain the worlds reserve currency until the day when China decides to ask customers for RMB instead of USD or even EUR from Europe, RMB from Asia, USD from North and South America ? That would actually help lead to a more multipolar world.

Of course the USA does not want to lose its position as the worlds sole super power and it will do everything in its power to retain its global dominance. In the next 6 years China's economy is supposed to surpass the US economy. As is usually the case when a rising power is set to overtake a ruling power, it usually leads to conflict.

We hope it won't happen but war between the US and China just seems more and more inevitable. The best case scenario for a country like Iran is to not pick sides, stay neutral officially, while supplying atleast one side, preferably both sides, with resources, products, services, whatever you can to make as much profit as possible while both sides batter each other into oblivion.

Side stuff.

Economic situation in the west is not great.
US Federal Teasury is completely lieing about inflation.

Look at how they manipulate inflation statistics.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1439746189943980035

View attachment 779021

@TheImmortal Have you noticed major price changes?
@aryobarzan
@sha ah

In Canada, prices have changed alot, cheese, bread etc... more expensive.
In some industries I've seen prices increase by 40%+ minimum, particularly electronics.

They are saying it is transitory, but this is a lie and I really do believe we are close to the brink of another economic failure like 08' but probably worse due to the massive amount of public debt.

Since the start of the corona virus, M2 money supply has spiked up massively due to money printer going hard. Massive amount of bills are still being printed and circulating
View attachment 779022


So much so that Overnight Reverse Repo market has skyrocketed because major financial institutions have no idea where to invest with all their cash on hand, which leads me to believe that they are waiting for something...

View attachment 779023

Every night, major banks and institution in the United States deposit over a trillion USD and rising, for overnight interest gain. The Federal Treasury provides minimal interest for this deposit, and the next morning the money is returned to the recipients only to be redeposited the next day over and over again. On Firday a record total deposit was made to the tune of 1.2 trillion dollars. Why are these institutions depositing their money here, instead of land? Gold? Stock market? or anything esle?

I can't say for sure why, but my guess is that they believe their is a impending crash due to inflationary issues, and storing the money in these overnight treasury bills is the safest option to atleast earn a small profit from interest until the floodgates crash open.


China's second largest prosperity developer (Evergrande) is on the brink of bankruptcy. Unclear whether or not they will restructure their massive amount of debt or conduct a forced liquidation of assets.
If they complete the latter, this will cause a huge ripple in the Chinese economy and affect their US creditors as well. I don't' want to sound over alarmist, but the signs of major problems on the near term future are showing.
Evergrande stock value has been getting hammered every day, and a default would be similar to the Lehman brothers fall of 2008. I expect property values in China to fall hard.

 

[SalarHaqq]

It was always a fraud. Mustard and Sarin kill in the thousands.

Even that isn't proven. Many hints pointing to use of chlorine by "I"SIS and so-called "moderate" terrorists though (who behead children and eat human organs).

And the news about the BBC's fraudulent reporting is relevant for other reasons as well:

1) It once again highlights the fact that mainstream media, especially western ones can simply not be trusted. They are neither objective nor respectful of the deontologic norms of journalism, and they will be used as means of propaganda and brainwashing as the zio-American empire and its cronies see fit.

2) Muslims who bought into the western- and zionist-concocted narrative about the Syrian war relayed by the media in US client states (such as Al-Jazeera, Al-Arabiya etc), are presented with more evidence as to how they've been fooled and how the demonization of President Assad, the Syrian government and its allies is a baseless strategem devised by hostile imperial powers. These revelations about the BBC and its claims that Damascus used chemical weapons on civilians is just the tip of the iceberg in the dirty propaganda war against Syria.

 

[Shawnee]

Side stuff.

Economic situation in the west is not great.
US Federal Teasury is completely lieing about inflation.

Look at how they manipulate inflation statistics.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1439746189943980035

View attachment 779021

@TheImmortal Have you noticed major price changes?
@aryobarzan
@sha ah

In Canada, prices have changed alot, cheese, bread etc... more expensive.
In some industries I've seen prices increase by 40%+ minimum, particularly electronics.

They are saying it is transitory, but this is a lie and I really do believe we are close to the brink of another economic failure like 08' but probably worse due to the massive amount of public debt.

Since the start of the corona virus, M2 money supply has spiked up massively due to money printer going hard. Massive amount of bills are still being printed and circulating
View attachment 779022


So much so that Overnight Reverse Repo market has skyrocketed because major financial institutions have no idea where to invest with all their cash on hand, which leads me to believe that they are waiting for something...

View attachment 779023

Every night, major banks and institution in the United States deposit over a trillion USD and rising, for overnight interest gain. The Federal Treasury provides minimal interest for this deposit, and the next morning the money is returned to the recipients only to be redeposited the next day over and over again. On Firday a record total deposit was made to the tune of 1.2 trillion dollars. Why are these institutions depositing their money here, instead of land? Gold? Stock market? or anything esle?

I can't say for sure why, but my guess is that they believe their is a impending crash due to inflationary issues, and storing the money in these overnight treasury bills is the safest option to atleast earn a small profit from interest until the floodgates crash open.


China's second largest prosperity developer (Evergrande) is on the brink of bankruptcy. Unclear whether or not they will restructure their massive amount of debt or conduct a forced liquidation of assets.
If they complete the latter, this will cause a huge ripple in the Chinese economy and affect their US creditors as well. I don't' want to sound over alarmist, but the signs of major problems on the near term future are showing.
Evergrande stock value has been getting hammered every day, and a default would be similar to the Lehman brothers fall of 2008. I expect property values in China to fall hard.

Evergrande stock has been falling since 2017. Not a big deal.

Every two months, there is a hype about economic crash. We have a major crash per century but the macrocycle appears ok until 2026.

I would not buy into these YouTube channels. Actually do revere and average into market positions during these periods.

Yes, there is inflation and printing money. Yes, Economy and dollar will crash sometime but does not appear to be that close.

 

[sha ah]

Latest Covid-19 vaccination numbers from Iran. 35% have received one dose while 16% have received 2 doses. 42 million doses have been given out all together.

 

[TheImmortal]

Taliban order Kabul women to exit workforce

The Taliban ordered women in Kabul to leave the workforce on Sunday, telling them to stay home pending a further decision.

www.yahoo.com

Looks like the PR campaign by the glorified baboons....I mean Taliban...didn’t last long.

Let’s see how long till Shiites get prosecuted or their rights taken away.

Man freedom looks amazing under the Taliban

 

[Muhammad Saftain Anjum]

Pakistan is very reliant on what the “white man” allows them to do when it comes to trade with Iran.

No it's not that what white man says.its due to Arabs.there are millions of Pakistanis sitting in Arab countries who send billions of dollars for Pakistan.so trade with them is vital for us.In fact they have helped us a lot in our wars,they helped us when we were under sanctions,we fought against Israel air force for Arabs,arabs helped us a lot in our nuclear weapons development.
new situations are changing rapidly , current Arab leaders are not very friendly with with us but still they are good markete for our weapons.

Simply we have more benefits in friendship with Turks and Arabs then Iran.we are neutral in your affairs.only if Taliban succeeded in making their stable govt. Pakistan will be out of terrorism very soon.and then we will balance our relations with west and US as we don't want to interfere in Quad and Chinese wars.

So don't derail my country.we have literally nothing to do with you after shah e Iran.
So even rule out Pakistan from your strategic discussions.you are in wars that will never end.

 

[GWXP]

Regarding China, there is a massive speculative bubble in Chinese real estate market.

It takes 8-10 years of median household income in US or Europe to buy a home and it takes 30 years of median household income to buy a home in China. Homes are insanely expensive in China (relative to income)

Since banks and bonds offer low interest rates and stock market in China is very volatile, everyone invests in real estate, hoping that home prices will continue rising forever.

Speculative bubble in Chinese real estate market is very similar to asset price bubble in Japan in 1990 prior to them having their Lost Decades.

Construction directly and indirectly is 30% of Chinese GDP and if there will be a housing market crash in China it will have massive consequences for global economy.

It is easy to imagine collapse of home prices in China, leading to bankruptcy of construction companies and stock market crash and bank failures leading to credit crunch and thus reduced investment and consumption, which in turn will result in recession and deflation similar to Japan in 1990s.

All this is also compounded by demographic problems of China, with it having one of the fastest aging societies in the world--and societies with large number of old people tend to consume less meaning deflation problem might get even worse

So it is very real that with the collapse of speculative bubble in China's real estate market, China might have its own Lost Decades and will never surpass US economy.

Meantime in the Western World we have other signals of upcoming crisis:
1) massive debts accumulated by households, corporate sector and governments
2) Central Bank interest rates hitting 0%, meaning monetary policy is no longer effective
3) demographic shift- (with ageing of society we have less consumption in economies where consumption is 70% of GDP)

According to Ray Dalio, major depression happens once in 90-100 years and the last one happened in 1929
Today, with accumulation of massive debts, and with Fed interest rate hitting 0% and with Quantitative easing having little effect on aggregate demand, --- monetary policy is no longer effective

The only option left after the next recession in US is monetization of deficit, when Fed will print money and buy government bonds directly, so government could start a stimulus program.....this will devalue US dollar relative to other currencies, which in turn will result in recessions in export oriented economies of Europe and East Asia.

So, whether the crisis will come from the East or from the West or both, oil prices will go down and this will badly effect oil exporting countries of the Middle East and will have geopolitical consequences across the world

Good video on China real estate

Ray Dalio--How the economic machine works

 

[sha ah]

So far the Taliban seems to be dealing with an ISIS insurgency, among others groups resisting them so I'm not too sure how stable the situation in Afghanistan will remain and for how long. Pakistan has basically gone bankrupt funding the Taliban and spending money to arm itself against India.

If China goes to war with the Quad and India, Pakistan will more than likely support China over Kashmir. That will be vital to tie down Indian resources while China goes after India's chickens neck (Siliguri corridor). If China manages to take the narrow Siliguri corridor, which connects western India to north eastern India, then the Indians will have absolutely no choice but to sue for peace and make concessions. This would be a dream come true for Pakistan.

Also both Pakistan and now Afghanistan are vital transit routes for Iran to transport crude / natural gas to China, especially in case of a conflict China will require energy transported by land as the Indian Ocean and South China Sea will be risky transit routes at that point.

Keep in mind that in case of war with India, the Indians will use their navy and try to dominate the Indian ocean and blockade Pakistan. In that case, Iranian energy exports sent to Pakistan by land will be vital as well. Pakistan and Iran were supposed to have already built a natural gas pipeline to send natural gas from Iran to Pakistan but Pakistan, because of western pressure, never fulfilled its end of the bargain.

No it's not that what white man says.its due to Arabs.there are millions of Pakistanis sitting in Arab countries who send billions of dollars for Pakistan.so trade with them is vital for us.In fact they have helped us a lot in our wars,they helped us when we were under sanctions,we fought against Israel air force for Arabs,arabs helped us a lot in our nuclear weapons development.
new situations are changing rapidly , current Arab leaders are not very friendly with with us but still they are good markete for our weapons.

Simply we have more benefits in friendship with Turks and Arabs then Iran.we are neutral in your affairs.only if Taliban succeeded in making their stable govt. Pakistan will be out of terrorism very soon.and then we will balance our relations with west and US as we don't want to interfere in Quad and Chinese wars.

So don't derail my country.we have literally nothing to do with you after shah e Iran.
So even rule out Pakistan from your strategic discussions.you are in wars that will never end.

 

[Shawnee]

Regarding China, there is a massive speculative bubble in Chinese real estate market.

It takes 8-10 years of median household income in US or Europe to buy a home and it takes 30 years of median household income to buy a home in China. Homes are insanely expensive in China (relative to income)

Since banks and bonds offer low interest rates and stock market in China is very volatile, everyone invests in real estate, hoping that home prices will continue rising forever.

Speculative bubble in Chinese real estate market is very similar to asset price bubble in Japan in 1990 prior to them having their Lost Decades.

Construction directly and indirectly is 30% of Chinese GDP and if there will be a housing market crash in China it will have massive consequences for global economy.

It is easy to imagine collapse of home prices in China, leading to bankruptcy of real estate companies and collapse of stock market and bank failures leading to credit crunch and thus reduced investment and consumption, which in turn will result in recession and deflation similar to Japan in 1990s.

All this is also compounded by demographic problems of China, with it having one of the fastest aging societies in the world--and societies with large number of old people tend to consume less meaning deflation problem might get even worse

So it is very real that with the collapse of speculative bubble in China's real estate market, China might have its own Lost Decades and will never surpass US economy.

Meantime in the Western World we have other signals of upcoming crisis:
1) massive debts accumulated by households, corporate sector and governments
2) Central Bank interest rates hitting 0%, meaning monetary policy is no longer effective
3) demographic shift- (with ageing of society we have less consumption in economies where consumption is 70% of GDP)

According to Ray Dalio, major depression happens once in 90-100 years and the last one happened in 1929
Today, with accumulation of massive debts, and with Fed interest rate hitting 0% and with Quantitative easing having little effect on aggregate demand, --- monetary policy is no longer effective

The only option left after the next recession in US is monetization of deficit, when Fed will print money and buy government bonds directly, so government could start a stimulus program.....this will devalue US dollar relative to other currencies, which in turn will result in recessions in export oriented economies of Europe and East Asia.

So, whether the crisis will come from the East or from the West or both, oil prices will go down and this will badly effect oil exporting countries of the Middle East and will have geopolitical consequences across the world

Good video on China real estate

Ray Dalio--How the economic machine works

I agree with 80% of your points.
There will be a crash sometime. As expected today was a red day but I think it is pure correction not crash. Crash is not here yet. It will come, maybe 10 years or so. You cannot time it.

A few months ago, I posted a comment that Iranian stock will outperform US stock and Chinese stock.
The pattern is still there despite the strong correction in the Iranian stock market.

Finally, these are all numbers and motivation and hard work make nations overcomes these indices.
I hate to slave numbers.

 

[sha ah]

One of the reasons why Evergrande is facing a crisis now is because the Chinese government set 3 red lines and effectively put the brakes on Evargrande's plans to expand further and attain further financing. Home ownership in China is at 90%, whereas in the US it's at 60% and a large portion of homeowners in China own 2 homes.

The Chinese government will most likely confiscate Evergrande and its assets along with the assets and funds of the greedy tycoons who caused this mess to prevent a massive meltdown. In China everything is planned, nothing happens by accident. With Lehman Brothers, everyone was in the dark until the last minute. This is not the case with Evergrande.

The Chinese reaction to this crisis will be the exact opposite of the American reaction to the recession, which was to use taxpayers money to bailout large corporations. The people behind the 2008 crisis not only got away with it, they all got their bonuses as well, funded for by the US taxpayer. In China, the Communist party reigns supreme, whereas in the US, capitalists reign supreme.

Yes in the last 2 years the USA has printed more money than in the last 100 years. Many western countries have reacted to Covid by borrowing a ton of money and have been giving out money to their citizens like candy. This has led to higher prices and inflation on many household items / staples.

Honestly if the US economy does end up facing some kind of great depression scenario then surely China will take the opportunity to ask export consumers for various kinds of currency instead of only USD as they do now. I'm predicting they might ask Europe for Euros, North America for USD and Asia/Africa for their own RMB (Yuan).

Of course in that case, the USA will feel enraged seeing China as an existential threat to it's position as the worlds sole super power. US war hawks and defense contractors, after Afghanistan, are also clamoring for a war with China and if you recall last time there was a depression in the US it was followed by WW2, which got the US to bounce back from the depression if you recall.

The US will seek a war with China to get out of its slump and retain global hegemony. That is simply their natural instinct. They will fabricate something, anything to ignite a war with China. I expect some sort of provocation or false flag operation, like the chemical weapons attacks in Syria or Gulf of Tonkin incident.

However only time will tell if history will repeat itself, or if this century the unipolar American world order will give way to a new multipolar global order.

ALSO oil prices will most likely rise during a global conflict rather than go down. A depression would cause prices to fall but again I believe that any depression will be quickly followed by a major conflict between the US and China.

Regarding China, there is a massive speculative bubble in Chinese real estate market.

It takes 8-10 years of median household income in US or Europe to buy a home and it takes 30 years of median household income to buy a home in China. Homes are insanely expensive in China (relative to income)

Since banks and bonds offer low interest rates and stock market in China is very volatile, everyone invests in real estate, hoping that home prices will continue rising forever.

Speculative bubble in Chinese real estate market is very similar to asset price bubble in Japan in 1990 prior to them having their Lost Decades.

Construction directly and indirectly is 30% of Chinese GDP and if there will be a housing market crash in China it will have massive consequences for global economy.

It is easy to imagine collapse of home prices in China, leading to bankruptcy of real estate companies and collapse of stock market and bank failures leading to credit crunch and thus reduced investment and consumption, which in turn will result in recession and deflation similar to Japan in 1990s.

All this is also compounded by demographic problems of China, with it having one of the fastest aging societies in the world--and societies with large number of old people tend to consume less meaning deflation problem might get even worse

So it is very real that with the collapse of speculative bubble in China's real estate market, China might have its own Lost Decades and will never surpass US economy.

Meantime in the Western World we have other signals of upcoming crisis:
1) massive debts accumulated by households, corporate sector and governments
2) Central Bank interest rates hitting 0%, meaning monetary policy is no longer effective
3) demographic shift- (with ageing of society we have less consumption in economies where consumption is 70% of GDP)

According to Ray Dalio, major depression happens once in 90-100 years and the last one happened in 1929
Today, with accumulation of massive debts, and with Fed interest rate hitting 0% and with Quantitative easing having little effect on aggregate demand, --- monetary policy is no longer effective

The only option left after the next recession in US is monetization of deficit, when Fed will print money and buy government bonds directly, so government could start a stimulus program.....this will devalue US dollar relative to other currencies, which in turn will result in recessions in export oriented economies of Europe and East Asia.

So, whether the crisis will come from the East or from the West or both, oil prices will go down and this will badly effect oil exporting countries of the Middle East and will have geopolitical consequences across the world

 

[Muhammad Saftain Anjum]

So far the Taliban seems to be dealing with an ISIS insurgency, among others groups resisting them so I'm not too sure how stable the situation in Afghanistan will remain and for how long. Pakistan has basically gone bankrupt funding the Taliban and spending money to arm itself against India.

If China goes to war with the Quad and India, Pakistan will more than likely support China over Kashmir. That will be vital to tie down Indian resources while China goes after India's chickens neck (Siliguri corridor). If China manages to take the narrow Siliguri corridor, which connects western India to north eastern India, then the Indians will have absolutely no choice but to sue for peace and make concessions. This would be a dream come true for Pakistan.

Also both Pakistan and now Afghanistan are vital transit routes for Iran to transport crude / natural gas to China, especially in case of a conflict China will require energy transported by land as the Indian Ocean and South China Sea will be risky transit routes at that point.

Keep in mind that in case of war with India, the Indians will use their navy and try to dominate the Indian ocean and blockade Pakistan. In that case, Iranian energy exports sent to Pakistan by land will be vital as well. Pakistan and Iran were supposed to have already built a natural gas pipeline to send natural gas from Iran to Pakistan but Pakistan, because of western pressure, never fulfilled its end of the bargain.

Assalamualaikum!
No India cannot do a blockade to Pakistan simply because our naval power is constantly rising.we can hit their carriers at distance of 600km away from air,700km away from land.and submarines have not just entered the race.

It's not due to outer pressure that Pakistan has never tried to enhance trade with iran.it has more to do with reason that our leaders have never taken interest in enhancing ties with Iran after shah e Iran.this is purely due to our history.Pakistan went for Arabs and you went for India as you had no other option for trade.

Now your land has been used against Pakistan,we literally care for only Afghanistan and have never interfered in Iran.simply your direction is different,ours is different.
We should now ensure peaceful settlement of Taliban.then should remain neutral in each other's affairs.

Your claim that Pakistan went bankrupt due to funding Taliban is just baseless and has no reality.