Iranian Chill Thread

[Blue In Green]

Curious question Titanium considering we are in the chill thread

Do you think Israel will eventually attempt an air operation to attack Natanz and maybe some other nuclear sites or will they continue to complain hoping the Americans will do something about it.

Israel probably isn't interested in launching the single most daring Air operation in the history of Modern aerial campaigns anytime soon.

Iran will retaliate and Israel is still recovering from their last scuffle with Palestinian resistance groups.

 

[Titanium100]

Curious question Titanium considering we are in the chill thread

Do you think Israel will eventually attempt an air operation to attack Natanz and maybe some other nuclear sites or will they continue to complain hoping the Americans will do something about it.

No. Israel won't attack Natanz or Iran's territory but it seems as if it has some 5th columns inside Iran perhaps to many and could attempt some sabotage but it won't be against any nuclear cites or important sites.

Israel can't attack Iran.. It doesn't have the manpower and to weak to stand upto Iran in this point of time. Israel is alot weaker without NATO protection in the region now. It doesn't have stragetic depth or manpower. The US is a life-line and crucial one

 

[Stryker1982]

Israel probably isn't interested in launching the single most daring Air operation in the history of Modern aerial campaigns anytime soon.

Iran will retaliate and Israel is still recovering from their last scuffle with Palestinian resistance groups.

Maybe not today of course, but who knows, in 2025? If their is a nuclear deal 2.0, they would be very scared of a Iran in 2025 with centrifuge production capability even 1 generation from Americas top tier centrifuges.

 

[SalarHaqq]

Iran doesn’t support the Taliban, their is only a communicative relationship. Their is little reason for Iran to like the Taliban

It's more than mere communication. Iran has been preparing for Taliban being granted a share of the power and is working on that basis to establish a viable relationship with them as accepted partners in the Afghan administration - as long as they stay true to their assurances.

I don't think anything you said is wrong per say,

To believe Iran cannot wield considerable political influence in Afghanistan if she so decides, is definitely wrong and detached from reality.

 

[Titanium100]

What are you trying to suggest? That the Taliban are going to disregard Iran's concerns or worse, choose to pose a threat to Iran? No, they won't, because that would imply Iran throwing her full weight behind a host of factions that have issues with the Taliban, and Afghanistan being the relatively fractured society it still is, and Iran having experience in establishing networks of allies there since the war against Soviet occupiers in the 80's, this is what would occur.

However, that's not what the Taliban want. They're not interested in another three or four decades of war either. Which is why they've made all these overtures towards Iran and have given Tehran concrete assurances on what matters most to Iran, namely:

1) Not to create any direct security threats for Iran.
2) Not to host nor support any anti-Iranian terrorist proxies either.
3) To try and find a political power sharing understanding with Iran's local allies, instead of fighting them.
4) Not to think of harming Afghan Moslem Shia civilian populations.
5) Cooperate with Iran against "I"SIS-K.

And if you believe Russia is going to easily allow a regime to take over in Kabul that is hostile to Moscow's interests, then you're the one having delusions. And that too, the Taliban are aware of. Hence why they are mindful of not "crossing" Russia either.

___________



The total of legal and illegal Afghan residents in Iran, is actually as high as 4 million. That's slightly more than 10% of Afghanistan's population.

Those with little to no knowledge of the Afghan issue seem to be stuck in the 1990's, believing this is a zero sum game between a supposed Pakistan-Taliban axis and the rest. In reality, none of the sides is under the delusion that anything but power sharing will be possible barring many more years of war and instability that will risk spilling over borders - which thankfully, none of the actors with a direct stake in this wants.

You are trying to add some relevancy to entities that really don't have that much by saying hosting this or that.. Why would Taliban be hostile to neighbour or foreign entity.. It is short term goal is to gain Afghanistan..

So what is there to be hostile about and the same regards to Russia what is there to be hostile about? Do you think they are stragetically here to wage some war on others or what? Taliban's goal is to rebuild afghanistan and get decades of re-building processes and peace..

So putting the question in that direction is wrong completely.. Everyone has accepted Taliban is a political reality that is all that matters to them in the short them..

But to assume Russia or anyone dictates what takes place in Pakistan-sphere or has the right to assert themselves here in any way of matter is wrong.. A hole will be punched thru their chests anyone who crosses a set of red-lines for Afghanistan.. So everyone should know this one before hand it could be anyone China, RUssia, India, anybody..

Peace and understanding is offered and assured by the main stakeholders who assure this which is Pakistan in this case and together with Turkey that plays a role on the ground..

The assurance of security and trade you get it is mutual not unilateral. It won't change by switching words to make it sound as if there is some sort of relevancy beyond what there is

 

[Stryker1982]

No. Israel won't attack Natanz or Iran's territory but it seems as if it has some 5th columns inside Iran perhaps to many and could attempt some sabotage but it won't be against any nuclear cites or important sites.

Israel can't attack Iran.. It doesn't have the manpower and to weak to stand upto Iran in this point of time. Israel is alot weaker without NATO protection in the region now. It doesn't have stragetic depth or manpower. The US is a life-line and crucial one

And it seems like NATO countries are not conflict seeking, this rift with Israel who demands military action is a big one. I think their primary concern is Iran's continuous focus on the nuclear front, even with 5th column sabotages. The more advanced the centrifuges become, the faster 90% HEU is completed especially as Iran already has alot of 20% enriched uranium at the moment. It's a big dilemma for Israel, which explains their support for covert activities in Iran as a stop gap. Thanks for your input.

To believe Iran cannot wield considerable political influence in Afghanistan if she so decides, is definitely wrong and detached from reality.

I never said that they couldn't, all I was mentioning is that Iran doesn't have alot of focus on Afghanistan, and has been lacking in political influence. Perhaps we will see more focus in forging relationships there now. We know the focus has been towards west asia for many years now.

 

[SalarHaqq]

You are trying to add some relevancy to entity that really don't have that much by saying hosting this or that.. Why would Taliban be hostile to neighbour or foreign entity.. It is short term goal is to gain Afghanistan..

So what is there to be hostile about and the same regards to Russia what is there to be hostile about? Do you think they are stragetically here to wage some war on others or what? Taliban's goal is to rebuild afghanistan and get decades of re-building processes and peace..

So putting the question in that direction is wrong completely.. Everyone has accept Taliban is a political reality that is all that matters to them in the short them..

And Taliban has accepted they will need to share power. This is not the 1990's anymore.

And you know why they are on course for a power sharing solution? Not because they would not like to rule alone - who wouldn't? But because they know that trying to monopolize power would imply war - because in that case, their opponents would enjoy backing from Iran among others. Which in turn means Iran is far from being the political outsider you were trying to make her out to be.

But assume Russia or anyone dictates what takes plays in Pakistan-sphere or has the right to assert themselves here in any way of matter is wrong.. A hole will be punched thru their chests anyone who crosses a set of red-lines for Afghanistan.. So everyone should know this one before hand it could be anyone China, RUssia, India, anybody..

I never talked of dictating anything. I suggested that if, the other way around, those in power in Kabul choose to antagonize Russia, then there's a lot Moscow can do to make life difficult for them.

Peace and understanding is offered and assured by the main stakeholders who assure this which is Pakistan in this case and together with Turkey that plays a role on the ground

Iran and Russia are bigger stakeholders in this case than Turkey. Afghanistan is not central to Turkey's interests, also the geographic distance is a natural barrier to Turkish presence.

 

[Titanium100]

And Taliban has accepted they will need to share power. This is not the 1990's anymore.

And you know why they are on course for a power sharing solution? Not because they would not like to rule alone - who wouldn't? But because they know that trying to monopolize power would imply war - because in that case, their opponents would enjoy backing from Iran among others. Which in turn means Iran is far from being the political outsider you were trying to make her out to be.



I never talked of dictating anything. I suggested that if, the other way around, those in power in Kabul choose to antagonize Russia, then there's a lot Moscow can do to make life difficult for them.



Iran and Russia are bigger stakeholders in this case than Turkey. Afghanistan is not central to Turkey's interests, also the geographic distance is a natural barrier to Turkish presence.

You are speaking in conspiracy theories the settlement is not agreed upon nor anything is set in stone that will happen in Istanbul between Afghan Gov't, Pakistan, Turkey and Taliban..

85% of the country is in Taliban hands not sure what they will negotiate with.. There is rumors that the gov't may actully surrender within the coming weeks entirely. there is nothing that can contain Taliban if it wants to take over the entire country. Iran doesn't want to upset Pakistan-Turkey nor Taliban over Afghanistan this much I know.

Turkey has forces on the ground legitimately won't leave either and is friends with Pakistan. Russia has no stakeholders since what happened to them in the soviet era nor is Pakistan comfortable with them anywhere near there

 

[SalarHaqq]

I never said that they couldn't, all I was mentioning is that Iran doesn't have alot of focus on Afghanistan, and has been lacking in political influence. Perhaps we will see more focus in forging relationships there now. We know the focus has been towards west asia for many years now.

True, but the user you were responding to was suggesting it.

You're correct, Iran didn't place a lot of focus on Afghanistan compared to West Asia for two reasons: first, the primary threat to Iran is the zionist regime; second, the current Afghan regime, while too close to Washington to be considered a true ally, also didn't pose a security challenge.

That said, a huge chunk of Afghanistan's imports still originate from Iran, for example. It's just that the volume is restricted given Afghanistan's overall economic limitations and much lower GDP as compared to, say, Iraq (19 billion USD vs 240 billion USD).

 

[Shawnee]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1412864456837767170

اتشفشان گل این بار در دوبی

 

[SalarHaqq]

You are speaking in conspiracy theories the settlement is not agreed upon nor anything is set in stone that will happen in Istanbul between Afghan Gov't, Pakistan, Turkey and Taliban..

What conspiracy theory? When did I claim the future of Afghanistan is set in stone?

It will also happen in Tehran and Moscow. And is, in effect, happening there too. The conference held in Tehran is not just for show.

85% of the country is in Taliban hands not sure what they will negotiate with.. There is rumors that the gov't may actully surrender within the coming weeks entirely. there is nothing that can contain Taliban if it wants to take over the entire country. Iran doesn't want to upset Pakistan-Turkey nor Taliban over Afghanistan this much I know.

It's more complicated than to simply assume Pakistan and Turkey are forming a single entity here. In fact general Dustom's Uzbek faction, one of the Taliban's traditional enemies, is directly backed by Ankara.

The Taliban may be able to militarily take the entire country, but whether or not this translates into a stable new government will depend on their willingness to accommodate other major actors such as Iran and Russia, in addition to concurrent local factions of course. That's all.

Turkey has forces on the ground legitimately won't leave either and is friends with Pakistan. Russia has no stakeholders since what happened to them in the soviet era nor is Pakistan comfortable anywhere there

Nobody will be naive enough to try and intervene directly in Afghanistan. But Russia is well capable of proxy warfare in Afghanistan, and so is Iran should they consider Kabul is jeopardizing their security.

 

[Titanium100]

What conspiracy theory? When did I claim the future of Afghanistan is set in stone?

It will also happen in Tehran and Moscow. And is, in effect, happening there too. The conference held in Tehran is not just for show.



It's more complicated than to simply assume Pakistan and Turkey are forming a single entity here. In fact general Dustom's Uzbek faction, one of the Taliban's traditional enemies, is directly backed by Ankara.

The Taliban may be able to militarily take the entire country, but whether or not this translates into a stable new government will depend on their willingness to accommodate other major actors such as Iran and Russia, in addition to concurrent local factions of course. That's all.

The security Accommodation is mutual not unilateral as you like to make it sound fanciful or more relevancy. Your fantasizing of Iran is to great to have fruitful conversation.. Nothing is unilateral here but mutual. You are trying to push for something that is entirely not there

Real summit on Afghan is happening in Istanbul not elsewhere. the others are just peace talks.

Yeah right they are capable of proxy warfare lol yeah right..No force is stronger than Taliban in Afghanistan look what happened to ISIS.. You are going in circles Russia won't go near there since the Soviet fall-out.. They have had their fill and share. Pakistan won't allow any desbilizing element in it's economy which is a red-line.

Pakistan-Turkey is very close and reality. You should follow the developments a bit more

 

[Mohammed al-Faruqi]

I've begun to believe these guys are just delusional people romanticizing about great Persia fantasies. They are not dangerous themselves, the only danger is how they manipulate America, Russia, India, Israel to intervene in Muslim nations on their behalf. They did so in Iraq, Syria, and they will in Afghanistan again if necessary. At same time they pride themselves on this forum as warriors against US and Israel while having not killed one Israeli or American soldier in past 5 years.

As I always say, the road to the liberation of Jerusalem, starts with the emancipation and removal of the satanic Khomeinist regime in Tehran.

 

[SalarHaqq]

The security Accommodation is mutual not unilateral as you like to make it sound fanciful or more relevancy. Your fantasizing of Iran is to great to have fruitful conversation.. Nothing is unilateral here but mutual. You are trying to push for something that is entirely not there

Scroll up and see who claimed what.

I didn't suggest Iran is the only party to wield influence, nor even that it's the most influential one. I'm afraid that you, however, clearly suggested Iran's reach there is limited to some societal and economic exchanges while being completely nonexistent in the political realm.

That no single side controls everything in Afghanistan is a given. This was the premise of my entire argument.

Real summit on Afghan is happening in Istanbul not elsewhere. the others are just peace talks.

"Just" peace talks? Ok...

Istanbul's a venue, it doesn't mean the nation hosting the conference exerts more influence than others.

Yeah right they are capable of proxy warfare lol yeah right..No force is stronger than Taliban in Afghanistan look what happened to ISIS.. You are going in circles

"I"SIS-K is an implanted grouplet with no grassroots presence nor any history of its own in Afghanistan. It's meaningless to compare it to the many currents that have traditionally been rivals to the Taliban.

Did I claim they're stronger? No, but I said they'd be able to cause problems for the Taliban if major powers start backing them. And the Taliban don't want that to happen either.

Russia won't go near there since the Soviet fall-out.. They have had their fill and share. Pakistan won't allow any desbilizing element in it's economy which is a red-line.

It depends whether Moscow considers a major security challenge is emanating from there or not. If not - read, if a future government with Taliban participation or led by the Taliban refrains from hosting anti-Russian elements (as opposed to the 1990's), which is of course most likely, then Russia has no reason to move. If the opposite happens though, then Russia isn't going to simply sit and take it.

Pakistan-Turkey is very close and reality. You should follow the developments a bit more

I'm just saying they've not entirely acted as one single entity. But yes, they will not conflict on Afghanistan, insofar as they'll manage any subsidiary differences that they might have on the ground.


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As I always say, the road to the liberation of Jerusalem, starts with the emancipation and removal of the satanic Khomeinist regime in Tehran.

You'll keep saying this forever.

 

[aryobarzan]

As I always say, the road to the liberation of Jerusalem, starts with the emancipation and removal of the satanic Khomeinist regime in Tehran.

Road to Liberation of Jerusalem as per new Egyptian troll..

yeh..we get that!