Iranian Chill Thread

[Sineva]

https://parstoday.com/en/news/iran-i138600-first_quota_of_covax_vaccines_shipped_to_iran

 

[DoubleYouSee]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1379465459221811200

absolutely araqchi and his filthy friends have to revive the dead body of jcpoa

 

[GWXP]

You can see the costs of US sanctions and domestic mismanagement by looking at this graph

It compares Russia, Turkey and Iran's performance over the last 19 years from 2000 to 2019

(This is despite Iran's and Turkey's population increasing from 64mln in 2000 to 83mln in 2019 and Russian population remaining constant at around 145mln)

This graph shows that Turkey is the best performing country---despite population growth, Turkey managed to double its GDP PPP per capita over the last 19 years

You can check out performance of other countries using this World Bank site

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

View attachment 731413

I remember couple of years ago World Bank put Iranian GDP PPP per capita at 21.000$ and then after Trump sanctions and massive inflation in Iran, they revised everything and now they put whole different numbers.

Anyway,

Lets try to make an estimation for the next 19 year (2040) for several countries making some assumptions

Turkey---as of today, Turkey has reached a middle income trap---this is a situation when economy grows relatively fast until it reaches certain level and then it gets stuck at that level. Escaping middle income trap is extremely difficult and requires institutional reforms and massive investments in human capital and infrastructure. Since 1960 only 15 countries escaped the middle income trap and turned into high-income economies. Based on middle income trap, we can estimate that Turkish economy will grow relatively slow over the next 19 years.
Assumption: population of Turkey will reach 94mln in 2040 and GDP PPP per capita will increase 1,4 times to 39.000$

Russia---country failed to become rich and now it ages. Labor force of Russia (people aged 20-64) is projected to decline from 89mln in 2020 to 80mln in 2040 and population of Russia is going to shrink from 146mln to 138mln. Demographic decline means that their is neither workers nor young consumers who create demand and drive economic growth. Because of demography, Russian economy stagnated between 2013-2021 with average GDP growth being 1,3% a year. Also average age of Russian engineer is 57 yeals old and they retire at 64. It is projected that by 2030 there will be a shortage of 3,5mln highly skilled workers and this will hinder economic growth. Based on middle income trap and demographic decline we can assume that Russian economy will be stagnating over the next 19 years with GDP PPP per capita increasing only 1,25 times to 34.000$

Iran----if China's 400bln deal will be realized and institutional reforms made, Iran can repeat example of Turkey and more than double its GDP PPP per capita over the next 19 years despite population growth. This is based on the fact that Iran is a catch-up economy and these kind of economies tend to grow faster + Iran has low levels of debt and Iran has not reached the middle income trap yet.

The Catch-Up Effect Definition and Theory of Convergence

The catch-up effect is a theory that underdeveloped nations' growth catches up to developed nations because growth tends to surge for the former and slow for the latter.

www.investopedia.com

So GDP PPP per capita between 25.000-30.000$ with population of 98mln people is possible in 2040.

Also we can estimate Germany, Italy and Japan

Italy---in year 2000 Italian GDP PPP per capita was 43.000 and in 2019 it was 42.000. Italians failed to compete with German goods withing the EU and having aging problem and massive gov. debt (140% of GDP), Italy stagnated over the last 20 years. Since Italians population is one of the oldest in the world, industries are not competitive and debt is so huge---we can assume that Italian GDP PPP per capita will either remain the same in 2040 or even shrink

Japan----in year 2000 Japan's GDP PPP per capita was 36.000 and in 2019 it was 41.000, increasing only 1,13 times over the last 19 years. Since Japan is the oldest society in the world with sluggish domestic demand and shortage of labor force and world's biggest gov. debt, Japan in 2040 will probably remain the same despite population decline.

Germany---German GDP PPP per capita increased from 43.000 in 2000 to 53.000 in 2019--1,23 times. High-end and highly competitive German goods flooded EU markets hindering industrial development of Italy, France and Spain. However population of Germany is among the oldest in the world with median age of 47 years. With ageing of its society and labor force shortage and the fact that Germany is already a matured economy, German GDP PPP per capita will at best increase from 53.000 to 59.000 by 2040

So the general assumption is that Iran with its low levels of debt, strong demography, solid infrastructure and as a catch-up economy (that tend to grow much faster than developed economies) can double its GDP PPP per capita despite population growth if institutional reforms are made and foreign investments come into the country.

Possible in 2040
Germany---59.000$ (matured economy+ aging problem)
Japan----42.000$ (matured, aged+ massive gov. debt)
Italy---42.000$ (matured, aged+ massive debt + non-competitive industries)
Turkey---39.000$ (middle income trap + high debt)
Russia----34.000$ (middle income trap + aging)
Iran------27.000$ (catching-up, low level of debt)

 

[sha ah]

This could have also been a retaliation for that Israeli affialiated ship that was struck in the Persian Gulf.

No reason Iran shouldn’t be a 2T economy (similar to South Korea) given its wide industries and natural resources and tech hungry population.

Instead sanctions and lack of foreign investment (by so called allies such as China and Russia) have kept Iranian GDP hampered.

A 2T Iranian economy could spend $100B on defense and it would only represent 5% of GDP. Stronger economy means stronger military.


Israel picked the first day of talks to attack an IRGC affiliated military vessel.

This could have also been a retaliation for that Israeli affiliated ship that was struck in the Persian Gulf a few weeks ago if you recall.

 

[TheImmortal]

This could have also been a retaliation for that Israeli affialiated ship that was struck in the Persian Gulf.

Let me get this right, Israel attacks “dozens” of Iranian ships and Iranian tankers. And Iran finally responds and yet somehow Israel has the right to respond?

Also those attacks were on civilian ships, this is an attack on a paramilitary vessel. Huge escalation.

Iran now needs to attack a Israeli navy ship or something associated with the military.

Not to mention how embarrassing it is that Israeli commandos can just stroll up to a surveillance ship operated IRGC and attach limpet mines. Serious lack of security.

 

[yavar]

 

[925boy]

In a war we will totally destroy them.

Saudi and US defense establishments agree with this. Just sayin.

 

[Sina-1]

Look monkeys have learned to talk! A part of me died watching this video. Imagine this idiot was next in line! AH!

 

[TheImmortal]

Look monkeys have learned to talk! A part of me died watching this video. Imagine this idiot was next in line! AH!

Dude has a massive nose....all that money and he couldn’t get it redone? Looks like a massive potato on his face.

I have no idea why media keeps parading this guy. His grandfather had zero lineage to the great Shah lines of Iran. He was just a military officer in 1900’s. Just another dictator, not a Shah.

 

[Dariush the Great]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1379887101844594700

Dude has a massive nose....all that money and he couldn’t get it redone? Looks like a massive potato on his face.

I have no idea why media keeps parading this guy. His grandfather had zero lineage to the great Shah lines of Iran. He was just a military officer in 1900’s. Just another dictator, not a Shah.

In the video he says that he broke his nose. And yes, very incompetent and garbage family. Iran had many great Shah's but the last one caused the entire 2500+ years old tradition to fall down. Extremely incompetent.

 

[WudangMaster]

Look monkeys have learned to talk! A part of me died watching this video. Imagine this idiot was next in line! AH!

I could not get past the 6 minute mark. They are all so YUCK!! Both sets of jabroni piles garbage at that!

 

[Surenas]

More worrisome than those tit-for-tat moves between Iran and Israel is Iraq's behaviour. The fact that its central bank is unwilling to pay back Iran's billions of dollars; its recent overtures to the Saudis and Emiratis and today reaffirming that US forces are in the country at its invitation and extending their presence.

Iraq - U.S. Strategic Dialogue - Government of Iraq

The following statement was released by the Governments of the Republic of Iraq and the United States of America: Begin Text: The delegation

gds.gov.iq

It's clear that Soleimani's murder (which the Iraqis have had a huge hand in) has hurt out influence in the country.

 

[Xerxes22]

More worrisome than those tit-for-tat moves between Iran and Israel is Iraq's behaviour. The fact that its central bank is unwilling to pay back Iran's billions of dollars; its recent overtures to the Saudis and Emiratis and today reaffirming that US forces are in the country at its invitation and extending their presence.

Iraq - U.S. Strategic Dialogue - Government of Iraq

The following statement was released by the Governments of the Republic of Iraq and the United States of America: Begin Text: The delegation

gds.gov.iq

It's clear that Soleimani's murder (which the Iraqis have had a huge hand in) has hurt out influence in the country.

That traitor bastard kadhimi deserves to be dragged around like Gaddafi was.

 

[yavar]

Cyprus and Israeli Onisilos Gideon exercise involved Cypriot Russian-made air defence systems such as Tor and Buk and IAF F-15 and F-35 jets. ‘Onisilos-Gedeon 2021” military exercise

 

[yavar]

United States and Iraq agree on eventual withdrawal of U.S. combat troops

U.S., Iraq agree on eventual withdrawal of U.S. combat troops

The U.S. military mission is focused on training Iraqis for the fight against ISIS, allowing for withdrawal of U.S. combat troops, the two countries say.

www.nbcnews.com