Iranian Chill Thread

[925boy]

So true but many are reluctant to believe. This moment looks like a good time to do the job.

This part :

Sen. Cotton warns Russia annexed Crimea days after hosting Olympics in Sochi, warns of history repeating itself with China hosting Olympics next year.

is actually fallacious- false analogy just because Russia invaded Crimea after hosting Olympics, it says little about the tendency or likeliness of China to invade Taiwan after hosting Olympics also- different scenarios and contexts for invasion in the first place...

 

[TheImmortal]

Until China gets pressured by the West, we will not see a resolution to the Iran file as neither the West nor China will make the guarantees Iran needs to economically prosper (strategic alliance), until the point they need Iran on their side.

Another slight possibility is that US love of debt ($28T and counting) and love of sanctions (Iran, China, Turkey, Venezuela, Syria, etc) will lead to a revamping of the global financial system where Bitcoin (or another cryptocurrency) replaces the dollar and acts as a digital gold asset for central banks around the world.

Trade would be done in BTC and would be impervious to sanctions by any country this will cause the dollar to lose its backing around the world which will participate a steep increase in inflation in the US due to it losing the benefits of petrodollar, reserve dollar, trade dollar, precious metals dollar that backs its unlimited printing press.

This would severely weaken the US. However, BTC needs to mature and such a scenario could be 10-20+ years away.

Best Iran can get today if it negotiates is some oil sanctions removal and connection to SWIFT until US and China finally collide or BTC replaces the dollar in the global financial system. Whichever comes first.

 

[WudangMaster]

2022 Winter Olympic like Sochi in 2014

I thought that might be the case, but then makes me wonder if anyone really cares about the winter games? I know they are separate but it seems the events don't really mean anything to anyone, compared to the summer games.
I think curling might be an event at the winter games...

 

[Sineva]

Video of Houthi forces shooting down an American MQ-9 Reaper over Marib yesterday:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1374771766367678467

View attachment 727680

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Interesting,it looks like the mq9 is actually being tracked from above by another flir equipped drone, which captures the mq9 firing a missile,probably a hellfire,at something.Shortly after we see the mq9 being hit by a sam,probably a manpad.
Its an impressive sequence,and it does suggest some degree of being able to track the drones by the yeminis.

 

[TheImmortal]

China doesn’t have the balls to attack Taiwan. Chinese like to be ninjas rather than soldiers. They rather not rock the boat. They got to where they are at by not getting tied up in useless conflicts, the exception being the Korean War.

However, Korean War was a Communist Fervor China not the China of 21st century that is restrained. Two different China’s. This China is avoiding direct conflict.

Even though China would win such a conflict it will come at an enormous cost as an amphibious assault on Taiwan would result in countless casualties on the Chinese side. One only needs to look at WW2 Japan to see the types of casualties that can be inflicted trying to take islands. China could lose 25K men in a blink of an eye.

 

[Muhammed45]

China doesn’t have the balls to attack Taiwan. Chinese like to be ninjas rather than soldiers. They rather not rock the boat. They got to where they are at by not getting tied up in useless conflicts, the exception being the Korean War.

However, Korean War was a Communist Fervor China not the China of 21st century that is restrained. Two different China’s. This China is avoiding direct conflict.

Even though China would win such a conflict it will come at an enormous cost as an amphibious assault on Taiwan would result in countless casualties on the Chinese side. One only needs to look at WW2 Japan to see the types of casualties that can be inflicted trying to take islands. China could lose 25K men in a blink of an eye.

Are you bringing US fire power into your equations or just counting on that little island? Man, if China pharts then you have to look for little Taiwan in the Middle of Pacific.

 

[Muhammed45]

حرفت کاملاً درست هست. صد در صد باهات موافق هستم که ما باید تولید رو افزایش بدیم و افرادی مثل زنگنه و آخوندی رو برای همیشه بذاریم کنار

اما یک نکته اینجا وجود داره. چجوری می خوای تولید رو افزایش بدی وقتی همه دنیا تحریمت کردن و حتی ساده ترین منافع اقتصادی خودت رو نمی تونی حفظ کنی؟ وقتی دیگران بفهمند که بهت می شه زور گفت، نمی ذارن منافع اقتصادی ات رو تأمین کنی. چیزی که پس از برجام داریم با چشم می بینیم

الان این داستان حق آب ایران مستقیم کشاورزی و دامپروری و اقتصاد سیستان رو هدف گرفته. هم بعد امنیتی قومیتی داره، هم بعد امنیت غذایی و شغلی. سیستان به دلیل شاخص های دموگرافیکی که داره نمی تونه به سمت اقتصاد دانش بنیان بره، باید بر پایه اقتصاد نیروی کار محور باشه. ولی با این خشکسالی شدیدی که اونجا هست چجوری می شه برای اونجا کاری کرد؟

صحبت من در اصل این هست که چجوری به اون نقطه برسیم وقتی نمی تونیم از خودمون در برابر خورده شدن حقمون دفاع کنیم؟

من جزو اون دسته ای هستم که معتقدم ایران دانش کافی و فناوری لازم برای قدرت هسته ای شدن رو داره، اما دل و جرأت سیاسی این کار رو نداره چون کسانی بر کشور حکمرانی می کنند که فقط فکر موندن خودشون در قدرت هستن و نه به فکر منافع ملی

و معتقدم هر سالی که می گذره و ایران بمب هسته ای نداره یعنی کم رنگ تر شدن قدرت و نفوذ منطقه ای ایران

من حقیقت اش خیلی به چینی ها و روس ها اعتماد ندارم. زمانی که پرونده هسته ای ایران رفت شورای امنیت دقیقاً بعد از وادادگی کامل جلوی اروپا در مذاکرات سال 2004 بود. احمدی نژاد هیچ کار خلاف ان پی تی نکرد که ایران رو بفرستن شورای امنیت

هنوز هم معتقدم اگه آمریکا رابطه اش رو با چین و روسیه خوب کنه، اونها دوباره ایران رو قربانی می کنند​

خطÛب زادÙ: ØÙâآب٠اÛرا٠از ÙÛرÙÙد ÙØÙÙظ است

سخÙÚ¯ÙÛ Ùزارت اÙÙر خارج٠کشÙرÙا٠در ÙاکÙØ´ ب٠اظÙارات ÙطرØâشد٠در خصÙص اÙØªØªØ§Ø Ø³Ø¯ Ú©Ùا٠خا٠در اÙغاÙستا٠تأکÛد کرد ک٠رÙدخاÙÙ ÙÛرÙÙد Ø¯Ø§Ø±Ø§Û Ø±ÚÛÙ ØÙÙÙÛ ØªØ¹Ø±ÛÙ Ø´Ø¯Ù Ø§Û Ø§Ø³Øª ٠بر اساس تÙاÙÙات اÛرا٠Ù...

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در کل حرفت درسته. با غرب وحشی طرفیم. هم دیپلماسی هم قدرت موشکی و هسته ای میتونه کمک کنه حقمونو پس بگیریم.

 

[Surenas]

China doesn’t have the balls to attack Taiwan. Chinese like to be ninjas rather than soldiers. They rather not rock the boat. They got to where they are at by not getting tied up in useless conflicts, the exception being the Korean War.

However, Korean War was a Communist Fervor China not the China of 21st century that is restrained. Two different China’s. This China is avoiding direct conflict.

Even though China would win such a conflict it will come at an enormous cost as an amphibious assault on Taiwan would result in countless casualties on the Chinese side. One only needs to look at WW2 Japan to see the types of casualties that can be inflicted trying to take islands. China could lose 25K men in a blink of an eye.

The brazen oversimplification is strong in this post.

They got to where they are by exercising a disciplined form of strategic patience. It is ridiculous to suggest that the past posture of a power like China determines future trajectory; especially if said power has managed to bolster its influence within a relatively short timespan. Growing powers like China wield non-interference until they don't.

Also, anyone with the slightest knowledge of modern China knows that the current upper political echelon of the PRC considers Taiwan to be anything but a useless conflict. Hence, the Chinese are likely willing to bear enormous costs to decisively settle the Taiwan issue once and for all.

 

[925boy]

This would severely weaken the US. However, BTC needs to mature and such a scenario could be 10-20+ years away.

Saying this means you really dunno how weak the USD currently is. Good post though. US and China wil want Iran on their side, i actually think US is the more desperate to get Iran on its side, but saying so publicly would confuse an frustrate the US public. in 10- 20 years, no coiuntry can enter Persian Gulf without IRanian approval..its almost that way today. Even NATO didnt come to US help months ago when stupid blockhead as* Trump asked NATO to help US "protect" the Persian GUlf- they didnt show up cuz they knew once Iran locks the strait of Hormuz, they might have to start explaining to their citizens why their naval ship is either snatched by IRGC or sunk to bottom of PG. If you are waiting for 10-20 years for change that means u have issue with denial. change is already here..

China doesn’t have the balls to attack Taiwan.

These types of comments u make worry me. you will go and write a nice political analysis on PDF.....then come and talk this rubbish.

China has the balls to attack, China is only waiting for the right time. I hope you understand meaning of timing.

You probably mean to really say :

US doesn't have the balls to attack Iran

Damn right you're correct about that!

 

[Dariush the Great]

حالا عصبی نشو آریان عزیز.

هر چیزی به وقتش دیگه. دشمن گنده است، منکرش نیستم ولی باید یه سری مصلحت ها رو با همسایه ها رعایت کرد. نمیشه که هر کی از راه رسید اسلحه رو بگیری جلو صورتش.

یه گزارشی خوندم که خامنه ای در چندین مورد ایران رو از درگیری نظامی تو منطقه دور کرده. آمریکا دنبال بهانه است تا یکی مثل صدام رو سگ کنه بندازه به جان ایران. ما عوض فکر به بمب اتم باید تولید داخل رو افزایش بدیم، قدرت تولیدی باشیم. همین آلمان رو ببین 2 بار تو 2 تا جنگ جهانی با خاک یکسان شد اما هر بار بلند شد چون فرهنگ تولید دارند. ما هم باید همونطوری باشیم نه مثل حرومزاده ای مثل زنگنه که میگه پترو پالایشگاه برای کشوری مثل ایران نیاز نیست. یا توله سگی مثل آخوندی که تولید مسکن رو نابود کرد. و بقیه آقایان یقه سفید حالا از هر جناحی. تولید ملی بسیار مهمه

ما باید به نقطه ای برسیم که آسیب پذیر نباشیم، بعدش میشه تسویه حساب کرد حالا با هر کشوری.

''ma bayad'' ro 43 saale shenidim dadash. toye in 43 saal hamash badbakhti, ekhtelas, koshtaar, tahrim va hezar masaele mozzer baraye iran etefagh oftade. mitoonam roye hezar nokaat angosht bezaram vali bifayede hast chon ke hame ma midunim che khabare. ba shoar keshvar ro nemishe edare kard baradar. roo hamin parvande atomi cheghadr zarar behemun resundand amma ma hich pishrafti too in zamine ham nakardim. uranium ghani kardim ke chi shod.. ke bad az 20 sal zahmat va aragh rikhtan do dasti taghdime tule sagha gharbi kardim. be nazare man sepahian mihandust bayad ghodrat ro be dast begiran. doran akhoond va ekhtelas dige tamum shode. omidvarim yek sepahi ba gheyrat peyda beshe ke iran ro vaghean be samte pishraft bebare.

 

[Shawnee]

صد و پنجاه سال کانال سویز با کشتی بسته نشده بود

چن بار تانکر های نفتی افغانستان اتش گرفت
بیشتر هزار تانکر افغانی و فقط سی تانکر ایرانی​

 

[TheImmortal]

Are you bringing US fire power into your equations or just counting on that little island? Man, if China pharts then you have to look for little Taiwan in the Middle of Pacific.

US will turn Taiwan into China’s Vitenam. And don’t underestimate Taiwan, taking a fortified island is tough and China will need to land an amphibious assault as well as a paratrooper assault.

It will be enormous cost to China, not to mention the the geopolitical fallout will likely be its complete isolation by Western and Western backed countries.

Seems not worth it to me.

 

[TheImmortal]

Even NATO didnt come to US help months ago when stupid blockhead as* Trump asked NATO to help US "protect" the Persian GUlf- they didnt show up cuz they knew once Iran locks the strait of Hormuz, they might have to start explaining to their citizens why their naval ship is either snatched by IRGC or sunk to bottom of PG.

NATO isn’t afraid to sail in Strait of Hormuz, they just hated TRUMP.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1374734346100240393

 

[yavar]

 

[925boy]

US will turn Taiwan into China’s Vitenam.

ANother dellusional lie. US cant turn Taiwan into CHina's Vietnam because of geography!! for US to turn Taiwan into a vietnam for China, US will have to spend so much resources that US just doesnt have.

FINALLY! Americans wont die in large #s for Taiwan- if u are ready to bet money PM me.