What are you talking about ? A few years ago Turks were saying that their bases around Idlib pocket were the new borders of Syria and that it belonged to Turkey. How many Turkish bases have SAA already encircled since then ? They also took Saraqib back from the Turkish proxies despite Turkey sending drones and losing hundreds if not over 1000 proxy fighters in the conflict.
Now you think SAA can't take a few villages back in the south ? Russia is already bombing the Turkish proxies on almost a daily basis and that has been going on for a long time. Also please don't compare Turkey to Russia. Russia has 7000 nuclear warheads and is a leading military powerhouse. Turkey is economically broken currently and is a middle power at best.
Turks could probably get to Damascus if they sent in their entire military but it would be extremely costly. Again wars require funding / revenue to wage. Just look at the Lira right now and the state of Turkey's economy. Where is the funding going to come from ?
Now from an economic standpoint, Turkey is economically not in a good place and it would only be worth it if there was something to gain from waging such a costly war. The Americans currently control the oil so what would Turkey gain then ?
How much would it cost on a daily basis to hold onto Syria with constant sabotage attacks / rebellions by Arabs, etc Also look at all the various fronts Turks are currently supporting. Libya, Syria, bases in northern Iraq, Armenia, etc.
At this moment thinking that Turks would send in their entire army into Syria is ridiculous. In 2012 Erdogan promised that he would be in Damascus praying the next year. It's as realistic as the Saudi's saying that they would defeat the Houthis in a few weeks tops.
Also what makes you think this conflict would lead to WW3 ? NATO is a defensive pact and right now the EU/NATO are very unhappy to say the least with Turkey.
So what you are saying is or assuming that Russia will start WW3 for Idlib or Assad? I am I hearing you correctly? Russia will not confront Turkey over such irrelevant buffer zone. In fact Russia won't even confront Turkey even if it had all of Syria except for big matters such as closure of the Istanbul strait etc etc.
Turkey won't leave that area and will use it as buffer zone and build cities in these buffer zones because it won't take everyone in. Turkey keeps whatever it has taken plus new territories on the SDF areas.
1. If Assad regime were to instigate or lets just say if Russia had to chose between them it will chose Turkey and back out after they re-negotiate their rights for the energy rights in Syria with Turkey and Tartous port remains same. Which means Russia has secured it's two main objectives plus Russia has alot of trade ties with Turkey over 100s of billions worth.
2. With or without Russia if a Conflict involving Turkey were to start they will reach Damascus in no time as Russia won't have enough manpower to contain them nor can the Assad regime. So it will reach Damascus as the war goes on and if Russia is taken out of the occasion the process will only hasten.
3. In such miscalculation which the Russians will never do because they understand the terrain and military realities. It will involve alot of other players will be drawn in such conflict and it won't be an isolated incident as it is to big of a conflict to remain such.
4. Israel will jump in such conflicts and seize Lebanon and South Syria and they would want to make it quickly before Turkey reaches Damascus and re-draw new border lines.
Russia is completely satisfied with current status-quo as it has sealed the energy rights over the gas and oil in Assad held areas and keeps the assad militias irrelevant by letting Israel bomb them contineously which shows who is the boss and keeping Assad there.
The only thing keeping Syria in balance are the US and Turkey who also hold territories of their own whereas the US has the countries most oil over 70% of the oil and gas is being drilled by US companies
