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Iranian Chill Thread

So after marathon negotiations in Moscow (10 hours) it appears as if both sides have agreed to a ceasefire. Only time will tell if this ceasefire will hold however.

Aliyev is trying to portray these latest clashes as a major victory. However if the military operation was going as smoothly as he claims and if it was as successful as he claims then why agree to a ceasefire ?

Looking at the big picture, Azerbaijan's military tried to capture the entire Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) region. The Azeris attempted a multi pronged offensive, trying to push forward and progress along the entire front.

They however had limited success, gaining a tiny chunk of territory in the north and a few villages along the border shared with Iran in the south.

The operation could be considered a minor victory if the Azeri side had not sustained a high number of casualties. However it seems as if they have indeed sustained major losses, both in manpower and material.

There are two competing narratives in this conflict, so there's no telling who's telling the truth and who's lying or exaggerating. However the fact of the matter is that Azerbaijan refuses to reveal KIA (killed in action) numbers and they have been caught faking evidence on multiple occasions.

According to the website https://www.lostarmour.info/karabakh/
which verifies losses of armour and weapons based on photo / video evidence, the Armenians losses account for 2/3rd whereas the Azerbaijani losses account for 1/3rd

Of course the website doesn't account for all the videos which show piles and even truck loads of Azerbaijni corpses or vice versa, although I must say that when it comes to that kind of material the vast majority shows Azerbaijani soldiers deceased.

It should also be noted that the Azeri side has been caught faking evidence on multiple occasions. This includes the pipeline attacks and power station attacks which the Azeris tried to blame on the Armenian side.

In any case, both sides will soon exchange their dead so in the coming days we might get a better idea. Also both sides might use this opportunity to regroup, although with winter approaching, who knows.

According to the Armenians, a few days ago, they claimed that Azerbaijan had lost well over 3000 soldiers / mercenaries, 300+ tanks, apcs, ifvs, trucks, 100+ aircraft including UAV, loitering munitions, helicopters, etc

Interestingly enough, there hasn't been much footage of the remnants of aircrafts that were shot down. However lately Azerbaijan has been releasing much less UAV footage than they were releasing at the start of the conflict. Also, the shift of focus from military targets to civilians after the first few days, in my mind is a tell a tale sign of frustration on the part of Azerbaijan.

At the end of the day, even if half of the Armenian claims regarding Azeri casualties are true, it's still quite devastating. The Azeri army numbers only 50,000. Assuming 3000 KIA and double that number injured, that's close to 20% of Azerbaijans entire fighting force. Again even half, 10% killed or injured in approximately 1 week of fighting, is quite a blow to any army.

Perhaps with another 5000-10,000 more Turkish backed mercenaries and a dozen or more Turkish TB2 UAV's they could have more success ? On the other hand, the Armenians, if they're intelligent, will pressure Russia to hand over those SU-30's they have on order. Currently the Armenian air force has 4 SU-30s active and 8 more on order.

The Armenians should also work on producing BVR weaponry for their fighter jets, better radar for their S-300 batteries, more air defense systems, electronic warfare systems, ATGMs, MANPADS, armor piercing rounds, mobile artillery. It would also be prudent for them to procure a large number of their own UAVs and loitering munitions for the next round of fighting.

In the meantime they should be putting a serious emphasis on building more decoy weapons in order to waste the other sides UAV resources and they should be digging underground tunnels and bunkers like there's no tomorrow.

Of course as I've mentioned before, Iran could easily provide the Armenians with all the weapons they require and at a cheaper price than the Russians. If the Turks are making money on this conflict and so are the Russians then why not Iran. Of course, Armenia, just like Iran in the region, has to try and play a tricky balancing act, trying to simultaneously benefit from all sides while not upsetting the other players in the region too much.

Of course, as always only time will tell.



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Armenia will lose more land, unless a deal is made. Don’t fool yourself with biased news. Armenia has lost 70 T72 and parts of S300.

Without direct Russian help or help of others in EU, NK is gone in 2-3 months. Land matters the most in this war.
 
Thanks so much bro....you see that post that got me suspended right?wow. Congrats to Iran on the 8 Ghadirs up and running in the country...airspace LOCKED UP!

I told you friend, there are some here that are apparently looking for reasons to get you banned because you're shattering their delusions.
 
I told you friend, there are some here that are apparently looking for reasons to get you banned because you're shattering their delusions.
Ha ha..........DO YOU know why specifically they are mad???? they are mad that Azerbaijan wont be able to subjugate and pin down Armenia.....you can win from the air all you want, afterall, that startegy gave the US military a loss aginst the Taliban and Iraqi insurgents, but if you dont have the required ground forces and political strategy, your gains from the airpower alone will wither away and you are back to square 1. where is Turkey's campaign in Syria and Libya now??? we were getting daily updates as to How Assad and Iran will get squashed in Syria, but at the end of the day, those anti-Assad and anti- LNA forces are just bogged down, spending money and lives to just exist in their holes....patriots can always wait on their land, traitors must eventually exit,because occupation has expiration date also.
 
Ha ha..........DO YOU know why specifically they are mad???? they are mad that Azerbaijan wont be able to subjugate and pin down Armenia.....you can win from the air all you want, afterall, that startegy gave the US military a loss aginst the Taliban and Iraqi insurgents, but if you dont have the required ground forces and political strategy, your gains from the airpower alone will wither away and you are back to square 1. where is Turkey's campaign in Syria and Libya now??? we were getting daily updates as to How Assad and Iran will get squashed in Syria, but at the end of the day, those anti-Assad and anti- LNA forces are just bogged down, spending money and lives to just exist in their holes....patriots can always wait on their land, traitors must eventually exit,because occupation has expiration date also.

I had a look in that "Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict" thread and frankly many people there appear highly out of touch with reality and in most cases deliberately so. For example, they are only posting one side of conflict as a way to make it appear the Azerbaijanis are "winning" this conflict when in reality the Azeris have lost over 2000 combatants. Azeris have focused more on these UAV recorded footages as a way of giving this perception of "winning". In reality, Azeris will not "win" anything here. If this continues, it could eventually become a protracted conflict where the Azeris will bleed so much to a point their propagandas can not hide it anymore.

Also, given how much support these Azeris are getting as compared to Armenians they are frankly performing borderline embarrassingly. They should count their lucky stars than Iran and Russia have decided not to aid Armenia yet. With a snap of its finger Iran could have 100's of UAVs in Armenia and this would devastate the Azeris. The Azeri time is running out, if I was them I would stick to a ceasefire before things start to take a serious bad turn for them.
 
I had a look in that "Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict" thread and frankly many people there appear highly out of touch with reality and in most cases deliberately so. For example, they are only posting one side of conflict as a way to make it appear the Azerbaijanis are "winning" this conflict when in reality the Azeris have lost over 2000 combatants. Azeris have focused more on these UAV recorded footages as a way of giving this perception of "winning". In reality, Azeris will not "win" anything here. If this continues, it could eventually become a protracted conflict where the Azeris will bleed so much to a point their propagandas can not hide it anymore.

Also, given how much support these Azeris are getting as compared to Armenians they are frankly performing borderline embarrassingly. They should count their lucky stars than Iran and Russia have decided not to aid Armenia yet. With a snap of its finger Iran could have 100's of UAVs in Armenia and this would devastate the Azeris. The Azeri time is running out, if I was them I would stick to a ceasefire before things start to take a serious bad turn for them.
Wow, well thanks for this analysis, i was a bit confused myself- i kept wondering why Azerbaijan was having "so much action" against ARmenia but not really going anywhere with it.....wow....some Pakistanis are going to have nervous breakdown if Azerbaijan doesnt win, I DONT GET IT...for whaat???? I think Iranian govt has played this war out well so far.....not revealing hands, not taking side visibly....stopping protests internally. BTW< i think protests have become a trend....cuz everyone does it now, whether its needed or planned or not, some just happen...so i'm basically saying some protests are fake too.
 
I told you friend, there are some here that are apparently looking for reasons to get you banned because you're shattering their delusions.

Who is that?
some Pakistanis are going to have nervous breakdown

Seems one Nigerian already had a breakdown. Tough luck.
Azeris have lost over 2000 combatants.

Armenian lost 6,000. Your point?

Will we magically see Armenian victory, I am so interested in this unfounded optimism. Where does it come from?

@MMM-E @PakFactor @Hassan Al-Somal @Turcici Imperium @masterchief_mirza @raahaat7

Get a load of this.
 
I told you friend, there are some here that are apparently looking for reasons to get you banned because you're shattering their delusions.
some people just wont leave us alone right? They keep nagging in our threads unwantedly.
Who is that?


Seems one Nigerian already had a breakdown. Tough luck.


Armenian lost 6,000. Your point?

Will we magically see Armenian victory, I am so interested in this unfounded optimism. Where does it come from?

@MMM-E @PakFactor @Hassan Al-Somal @Turcici Imperium @masterchief_mirza @raahaat7

Get a load of this.

WAR CRY !!!!!!!!! And here comes the troll army.
 
Armenian lost 6,000. Your point?

Please, give me a break. You people seem to be inventing these numbers as you go. Your blind support for these Azerbaijanis is truly clouding your judgement.

Will we magically see Armenian victory, I am so interested in this unfounded optimism. Where does it come from?

You appear to be getting rather emotional, take a deep breath and let your mind settle a little. As I clearly alluded to in my comment, concept of "victory" here is very loosely defined. Armenia, despite its lack of support is doing a decent enough job at making the Azeris bleed and this can continue for a long time. This is a dynamics so far, one side is getting much support vs one side which is barely getting any. The simple notions is this, what do you think will happen if the Armenians start getting the sort of sort the Azeris are? This is called logic, not optimism.
 
some people just wont leave us alone right? They keep nagging in our threads unwantedly.


WAR CRY !!!!!!!!! And here comes the troll army.

You are way too aggressive BD bro, I thought you understood before when I had a talk with you that we shouldn't let politics and religion get personal.

If the Pakistanis (and Turks) are brought up here, do we not have a right on our own Pakistan Defence Forum to answer them?

I have never had any major problem with any Iranian members giving their viewpoint, but this @925boy is an anti-Pakistan troll who abuses Pakistan, our military, and our people any chance he gets.

I actually am still conversing with the pro-Iran Euro Austin Powers in the other thread and have favorable opinion of most Iranian members, regardless of differences.
Please, give me a break. You people seem to be inventing these numbers as you go. Your blind support for these Azerbaijanis is truly clouding your judgement.



You appear to be getting rather emotional, take a deep breath and let your mind settle a little. As I clearly alluded to in my comment, concept of "victory" here is very loosely defined. Armenia, despite its lack of support is doing a decent enough job at making the Azeris bleed and this can continue for a long time. This is a dynamics so far, one side is getting much support vs one side which is barely getting any. The simple notions is this, what do you think will happen if the Armenians start getting the sort of sort the Azeris are? This is called logic, not optimism.

I am not emotional, but I am looking at the ground and at 20% reconquest of Occupied territories by Azeris.

I had a good opinion of you, but what is with this drama?

So what if we disagree on politics, you will defend an ID who abuses Pakistan all over this forum?

I have not called for his ban, but I have reported his uncalled for abusive statements against Pakistan, like many other Pakistanis. Should we not have that right on PDF?
 
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Ha ha..........DO YOU know why specifically they are mad???? they are mad that Azerbaijan wont be able to subjugate and pin down Armenia.....you can win from the air all you want, afterall, that startegy gave the US military a loss aginst the Taliban and Iraqi insurgents, but if you dont have the required ground forces and political strategy, your gains from the airpower alone will wither away and you are back to square 1. where is Turkey's campaign in Syria and Libya now??? we were getting daily updates as to How Assad and Iran will get squashed in Syria, but at the end of the day, those anti-Assad and anti- LNA forces are just bogged down, spending money and lives to just exist in their holes....patriots can always wait on their land, traitors must eventually exit,because occupation has expiration date also.

Their hatred of Iran due to insecurity complex has started to really gush out. They find it hard to accept that Iran is leading the resistance nd not their donkey infantries from Afghanistan and other places.
You are way too aggressive BD bro, I thought you understood before when I had a talk with you that we shouldn't let politics and religion get personal.

If the Pakistanis (and Turks) are brought up here, do we not have a right on our own Pakistan Defence Forum to answer them.

I have never had any major problem with any Iranian members giving their viewpoint, but this @925boy is an anti-Pakistan troll who abuses Pakistan, our military, and our people any chance he gets.

I actually am still conversing with the pro-Iran Euro @Austin Powers in the other thread and have favorable opinion of most Iranian members, regardless of differences.

I dont think ive been aggressive at all. I only pushed back wen they came over with hatred and wanted to raid Iranian pantry at night. Quite honestly, For the last couple weeks sum people have ganged up on Iran and have said things that Iranians wudnt preemptively say about Pakistan or others.

And to tell you the truth, You have been their leader in this. As soon as any Iranian thread is pulled up then they show up and start bashing Iran. We never did that to you did we? Do we show up in ur damn threads and talk Shiit about Pakistan ? Tell me. Please Bro, be honest. These ppl dont like the fact that Iran is the real leader in the middle east.

For as long as Ive followed pdf, ive never seen such shameful behaviour from users. Its 100% total and utter hate. We never Talk bad about pakistan unless its a damn brawl thats going on. And why shud we? What has Pakistan done to us? Its a muslim state. Its a Country we all support. But you People, the way you guys been acting is absolutely shameful
 
Wow, well thanks for this analysis, i was a bit confused myself- i kept wondering why Azerbaijan was having "so much action" against ARmenia but not really going anywhere with it.....wow....some Pakistanis are going to have nervous breakdown if Azerbaijan doesnt win, I DONT GET IT...for whaat???? I think Iranian govt has played this war out well so far.....not revealing hands, not taking side visibly....stopping protests internally. BTW< i think protests have become a trend....cuz everyone does it now, whether its needed or planned or not, some just happen...so i'm basically saying some protests are fake too.

For Iran the status quo was good enough. The destruction of stability in those two states is not really advantageous for anyone. The Azerbaijanis have been pushed by the Turks to get involved in this campaign. The reason, you may wonder? The Turks are desperate to gain influence in the region. The have no hope of doing so using their creed as both the Shia and Sunni Arabs will not go into their camp. Instead, they're trying to gain influence via this superficial notion of "Turkic" world. They're hoping to ultimately end up connecting Azerbaijan to Turkey physically and to extend right into central Asia. This is their wish, which is one that will not come to fruition. I have said this before, the Turkish leadership are chasing a fantasy and not realising what's right in front of them. This is very dangerous for them as Turkey itself is very vulnerable. In political time scale, it was only yesterday there was a coup attempt and don't forget the rising Kurdish population in their state. They're in a glass tower and throwing stones.

Regarding these "protests" you saw in Iran. There was a few dozen and low hundreds that were organised by foreigners from Azerbaijan (the country), they have since been arrested. There are millions of Azeris in Iran, and these are the same people that have historically fought and killed the Turks/Ottomons so I find it ironic you have these turks thinking Iranian Azeris will be sympathetic towards them. It reminds me of that time when Saddam thought Iranian Arabs would aid him when he invaded Iran but they were the first to fight him. These people do not understand the pride of Iranian people for their land.

Iran and Russia have their own calculations My two cents is that from their perspective, if the Azeris gain back their so called occupied territories then so be it, but if the Azeris, egged on by the Turkish try to make moves against Armenia proper, then you will see the Azeris being put in their place. Also, if the Turks continue pouring in these Syrian terrorists right on Iran/Russian border, then you will also see actions. But I am not speaking for Iran in an official capacity ,just conjectures.
 

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