Iranian Chill Thread

[sha ah]

Azerbaijan releases a trophy video of "allegedly" captured Armenian weapons in a village right on the border.

This is after Aliyev claimed to have captured 10+ villages west of this position. This is in the south east of the encalve, on the border with Iran.

Honestly after Azerbaijanis got caught drilling a hole in the ground near a power station to plant a FAKE, dud bomb, I don't trust them anymore.

Keep in mind Azerbaijan and Armenia have much of the same military equipment.

Azerbaijan just released another trophy video showing footage of a village right on the border in the south east of the enclave near iran's border.

Why is this remarkable ?

Well Aliyev claimed in the last 2 days that 10+ villages and towns further west of this village had been decisively captured. He tweeted out the message confidently proclaiming the gains.

I guess this turned out to be false just like Matagis in the north of the enclave. Again, the weapons, we don't know for certain if they're Armenian since both armies have much of the same Russian weaponry.

You know what else is interesting ? Whenever an army go on the offensive, into enemy territory, it's best to expand outwards like a circle, thereby covering ones vulnerable flanks. Just going into enemy territory like a straight line is suicide because an army will be completely surrounded.

On the other hand, if an army has complete air superiority and constant close air support, then they can go directly at specific vital targets, just like how the Americans went straight for Baghdad in 2003, thereby decapitating Saddam's regime. Still, even then there shoulld be some units guarding an armies flanks just in case.

What happened recently in the south of Artsaskh (Nagorno-Karabakh) enclave is that the Azerbaijani's went straight in, like a thin line going deeper into enemy territory, as opposed to expanding like a circle outwards.

According to the Armenians, this was actually a trap to lure them in, after which they ambushed the Azerbaijani army, killing 200 Azerbaijani troops, injuring many more and forcing hundreds more to flee.

This seems to be corroborated by the fact that in the last 2 days Aliyev claimed 10+ villages west of the border, south east of the enclave, had been decisively captured.

Yet today they show off a village right on the border as a trophy ? You can decide for yourself, however it's pretty obvious what happened.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1313164016580210688

Now with Azerbaijan's latest claims of strikes, they're not showing drone footage anymore. Just an edited satellite picture from Google earth.

BTW Azerbaijan's last drone strike footage did not even show any strikes, but rather merely just tanks, trucks driving around. No impact footage. In my opinion, it's probably surveillance footage, maybe from days past even ?

Again it's so hard to trust them when they've been caught FAKING evidence and making false claims about gains repeatedly

Azerbaijani military targeted arsenal in Ballica/Aygestan town in Karabakh

 

[sha ah]

Honestly I believe that you're severely delusional.

Turkey and Pakistan have severe economic issues right now. Attacking Iran would leave Pakistan vulnerable on the Indian front and there's a good chance the Indians will most likely take advantage in Kashmir.

Turkey has troops everywhere from Syria to Libya, Armenia as well and their military was purged by Erdogan after the failed coup. Look at the Turkish Lira. In 2005 they 1 USD was equal to 1 MILLION Liras. They slashed 6 zeroes from the Lira. SIX ZEROES. For a while the currency was 1 to 1 approximately. Now today it's 1 USD = 7.7 approx and it appears like the Lira is about to depreciate much more.

Aside from that Iran has thousands of missiles, very potent multi-layered air defenses and a war would be costly for all involved. There's no way they would attack Iran just for supplying weapons to Armenia.

Even if Iran were to launch limited strikes inside Azerbaijan on radical militant groups or impose a no fly zone a few km inside the Artsaskh (Nagorno-Karabakh) enclave to protect it's citizens, there isn't much anyone can do about it.

I highly doubt if all these countries would team up to attack Iran. That's more of a fantasy than anything. 1 year for the fall of Iran ? LOL Where do you come up with this stuff ? such fantasies ?

When Iraq invaded Iran after the revolution, the USA, USSR, UK, France, Germany, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and countless others supported Saddam.

Iran could not procure spare parts of its weapons. All of the top generals and 5000 top officers had been purged after the revolution and all the technicians from the west who repaired Iranian tanks, jets, etc were gone, having taken their tools and even repair manuals with them.

Literally Iran was at its most vulnerable and Iraq at the peak of its military might.

Western military analysts believed that Iran could not last 6 months in a war and that Iran's airforce would be permanently out of commission within 6 months.

After 2 years Iran had kicked out all Iraqi troops and Saddam was begging for a ceasefire. Persian Gulf states offered Iran hundreds of billions to stop the war. Iraq was bankrupt and had no funds to pay for bread or bullets.

Anyways, Iran went on the offensive and realistically if not for US satellite intel, hundreds of billions in loans from Persian Gulf states (which btw led to Saddam invading Kuwait later), advanced weapons from the west and finally the chemical weapons, Iran would have won.

Anyways that was then and this is now.

You greatly OVERESTIMATE Turkey's miltiary capability. Their military has just been purged after the failed coup.

Think about this. Ras Al Ayn. A Syrian village right beside the Turkish border. Turkey had fighter jets, satellites, drones, tanks, armored vehicles, outnumbered the enemy 10 to 1, they even had mercenaries as cannon fodder.

Despite all this, after 7 days, Turkey negotiated with Trump to allow the PKK/YPG to leave in exchange for Ras Al Ayn. That's a tiny village on the border with Turkey. The land there is relatively flat compared to Iran's mountainous terrain

Iran's military doctrine is based on defense and asymmetrical tactics. Turkey and Pakistan are already nearly bankrupt, whereas Iran has the 2nd largest reserves of natural gas and the 4th largest reserves of oil.

Honestly If both Pakistan and Turkey and other Turkic nations attacked Iran, yes Iran would have a hard time but there is no way all of Iran would be conquered in 1 year. I highly doubt it considering all the variables.

Everyone is just waiting for Iran to make the grave mistake and you will realize ain't nobody is coming to your assistance. What are the mistakes for Iran to get drawn into this conflict one way or another enraging Turkey-Pakistan-Uzbekistan and some of the other turkic nation allies in this axis and this axis is alot bigger then what I mentioned with infinite amount of wealth and manpower hidden it's like the titanic ice-berg you only see the tip now.

Your first of all surrounded from all areas, outnumbered and outgunned. Russia will stay clear of a potential nuclear war which could kick start WW3 but sacrificing Iran wouldn't bother Russia or any other allies. Completion of fall for Iran will then be max 1 year.

In reality your a featherweight. Tread carefully and choice wisely from which cop your going to drink from next. For I am praying for Iran to commit a massive mistake you will realize the people your dealing with are reckless and don't shy away from direct confrontations

 

[Caspian Parsi]

خدا را شکر که بالاخره آذربایجان داره یک حرکتایی میزنه و خاک خودش و حق قانونی خودش را از دشمنش پس میگیره. به کوری چشم بدخواهان. امیدوارم روز قیامت جوابگوی مولامون امیرالمومنین علیه السلام باشیم که حاضر بودیم به سنی مذهب ها و فلسطینی ها ( که میدونید عقایدشون چی هست ) کمک کنیم ولی به یک کشور که عمدتا شیعه هستند و اشتراکات فرهنگی و تاریخی باهاشون داریم و از همه مهمتر حق هستند و مورد ظلم قرار گرفتند نه تنها کمک نکردیم و نمیکنیم بلکه در جهت عکس عمل میکنیم.

Thank God that Azerbaijan is finally making a move and taking back its territory and its legal right from its enemy.
وَ قُلْ جاءَ الْحَقُّ وَ زَهَقَ الْباطِلُ إِنَّ الْباطِلَ كانَ زَهُوقاً

Mardom daran hamdigaro mikoshan , to negarane javab dadan be emem ALi hasti ..this is a military forum not a religious one .

 

[GWXP]

Recent conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh showed increased utility of drones.

We can see how these small cheap drones slowly take the role of attack helicopters and destroy enemy tanks/APC/trucks etc.

Probably TANK as a weapon has no future--too many challenges for tank---ATGMs, mines, UAVs.

Tank is an expensive piece of metal that will be very diffcult to defend in the near future.

For example Armata is a 10mln$ tank that cost millions more to maintain--- and yet how will it survive an attack by cheap UAVs with cheap (50K$) missiles attacking from the top?

New generations of cheap/effective ATGMs will also make tank a useless/expensive piece of metal...(we have seen this in Yemen/Syria/Iraq)

Iran should invest in such weapons like:

1) New generation of effective ATGMs that will allow its infantry units to cheaply and effectively defend its territory from enemy armored formations

2) New stealth UAVs and cheap suicide UAVs that can take out enemy armor cheaply and effectively

3) precise quasi-ballistic missiles that can take out enemy aircrafts on their bases with high precision

4) effective air defences that can protect infrastructure from what will be left out of enemy airforce (after their bases will be bombarded by ballistic missiles)

These 4 weapons will allow Iran to effectively defend its territory from any regional and extra-regional power

 

[sha ah]

These maps are from the website https://caucasus.liveuamap.com/

For those who don't know they cover conflicts all over the world including Syria, Libya, Yemen with interactive maps with relatively up to date information. They "try" to be impartial by using geo-location, pictures, video evidence for verification

The solid blue areas are areas confirmed captured by Azerbaijan

The light blue circles are areas claimed to have been captured by Azerbaijan, however as I've stated in my previous post, most of these claims have been debunked.

again SOLID BLUE are confirmed military gains by Azerbaijan.

LIGHT BLUE circles are claimed gains by Azerbaijan (Aliyev tweets) which have been proven to be false / debunked or perhaps they were lost ?

However keep in mind that in most cases no solid evidence (geo-location, pictures, videos) was ever presented to validate these alleged gains.

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So far in this conflict...

The Azerbaijanis have lost
3000+ men
300 tanks, ifvs, trucks
100 UAVs, helicopters, loitering munitions (Harops, costing $! million a piece), aircraft

If we include injuries that would mean the Azerbaijani army, numbering 50,000 active personnel, have lost 15-20% of their soldiers

Of course, this is the Armenian claims of Azerbaijani losses, but even if half of it is true, then it's still devastating considering the limited gains made.

According to https://www.lostarmour.info/karabakh/

both sides have sustained significant losses with 74 verified claims all together based on picture / video evidence

Out of 74, 29 are Azeri, the rest Armenian. meaning 40% of the losses are Azeri, 60% Armenian

According to Oryx on twitter, which is pro-Azerbaijani / pro-Turkish btw

In conclusion, the Armenians and Azerbaijanis have both lost significant numbers of personnel and equipment.

The Azerbaijani's and Turks saturated the skies in the first days with a combination of UAVs, helicopters, aircrafts and especially Israeli loitering munitions (Harops).

This allowed them to overwhelm the Armenians defenses and inflict significant losses at first. That made many Turkish fanboys believe that this operation would be successful like Afrin or Libya.

However since then the Azerbaijanis have lost 100+ aircrafts in the skies over Artsaskh (Nagorno-Karabakh)

Armenia possesses fighter jets, air defenses and a steady supply of weapons from suppliers (Russia / Iran). Due to this they have been able to essentially weather the initial storm and avoid losing any meaningful amount of territory.

Considering the significant losses on the Azerbaijani / Turkish side for little to no gain, it does not seem feasible for them to be able to keep progressing for much longer.

If Azerbaijan has truly lost 20% of their military personnel then that is indeed devastating, However even if Azerbaijan has lost 10% of their fighting force, that is also simply unacceptable considering the lack of gains.

Anyways a few more interesting tweets

https://twitter.com/x/status/1313226300929306625

https://twitter.com/x/status/1313425097974329351

 

[Shawnee]

Guys,

We had a deal to avoid Turkish section and vice versa. Only to see them making new accounts and openly support Turkey.

@waz

 

[viewer]

Mardom daran hamdigaro mikoshan , to negarane javab dadan be emem ALi hasti ..this is a military forum not a religious one .

and this is the Chill Thread of the iranian defence forum. the country that most of its military actions take place with religious roots or religious causes. ( at least it shows in this way ) so it is relevant much more than you think.

 

[sha ah]

Well the tank does have a future since any army going on the offensive needs fire support and looking at tanks like the Armata, they may be able to avoid UAV strikes using electronic warfare and a combination of reactive armor, active protection system.

I know for certain that the Armata cannon can shoot down helicopters a few KM away.

Also in a few of the Azerbaijani clips showing attacks on tanks, we see the tanks potentially survive because of their reactive armor and the specific angle of the impact.

Of course most of the strikes are direct hits and you could see the aftermath with a catastrophic fire destroying the tank from the inside. However a few strikes were questionable as to whether the drone strike actually was able to penetrate the tank.

Btw the Harop loitering munition costs $1 million a piece and the Turkish TB2 drones cost $5 a each.

Realistically like I said in an earlier post. If you have an air defense system with 4 missiles and you send 6 drones / loitering munitions after it, you know what the end result will be.

Of course when it comes to drone strikes are there are a number of creative methods which can be utilized for survival sake.

In some of the Azerbaijani UAV strikes, it's obvious that the SAM system or artillery was made of wood, as you can see the target break into wood-like shrapnel without any secondary explosion at all.

So basically for every piece of artillery, if an army, or specific units spends the time, they can quickly build decoys, even potentially out of scraps, to waste the enemies resources. The British used balloon tanks in WW2 as decoys to fake a military build up.

Decoys can be made from scrap wood and other rubbish and even civilians can place them all over the front lines if they want to help the cause.

Another option is that build a simple square structure, like a rudimentary, square tent, made from scrap wood (2x4s perhaps) and tarps, around a vital piece of equipment.

Let's say you have an air defense system. Something like the Ya Zahra.So iInstead of building detailed decoys, you can just build a simple square, wooden structure around it and put attack a tarp on the top for cover.

Let's say you build 4 of these structures at a decent distance from each other to avoid splash damage and 3 of them are empty, with 1 of them actually hiding a SAM system inside.

Another option is to build simple structures in various areas with no air defense system underneath at all, just to confuse the enemy Again these are decoys that will waste the enemies precious resources.

Imagine for 1 air defense system, you have 3 or more sqaure shaped, tarp made decoy structures nearby it to throw the enemy off.

Basically they won't know which one to hit and if they're all a decent distance from each other, there will be no splash damage and they won't be able to hit them all with one strike.

Then imagine, 1 or 2 km or two away, you have even more of these structures except the 4 structures this time are hiding nothing.

In my opinion, every military that is at risk of being targeted by the enemy from the air should have a decent number of decoys.

Deception is a huge part of warfare. In Syria for example, Israel usually strikes alleged Iranian sites which it sometimes describes as "vital weapons / missile production facilities".

However in my opinion, to believe that Iran doesn't put out false intelligence out there and to believe that Iran doesn't use various sites as "decoy sites" is just naive.

Especially if you consider the fact that there are countless underground bunkers / tunnel systems, in now liberated areas throughout Syria, which were dug out by radical militants / rebels.

Why in the world would Iran then not utilize these sites in Syria ? Keep in mind, Iran has experience with "missile bunkers / tunnel networks" in Iran itself.

So then why not use specialized machinery or even just brute manpower to dig deeper perhaps and why not fortify the site(s) using various methods? It would simply seem like a logical course of action for Iran & Syria.

To hit such fortified, underground sites Israel would more than need to drop bunker busters on them to guarantee their complete destruction. This however would require Israeli jets to fly deep into enemy territory, which is an extremely risky proposition.

Anyways, when it comes to the Turks and their use of drones, in my own opinion, their tactics are effective but extremely flawed.

A $5 million dollar drone is meant to be used for a long period of time, not to be used on suicide missions. Yes saturating the sky with them works but look like Libya how they lost 20+ drones.

Despite destroying many Pantsirs, their losses in my mind are simple pathetic actually. The way I see it, if you're going to send your UAV on a suicide mission or extremely risky mission then why not use loitering munitions or even cheaper drones that can still do the job ? Why sacrifice $5 million dollars ?

See that's the thing about Turkey. They make 2-3 different kind of drones but Iran makes many more. Iran makes cheap ones, intermediate priced, high end, loitering munitions, stealth drones and drone that can shoot down jets potentially (Karrar UAV).

Especially because of the capture of the RQ-170 among others, Iran is at the very least 10-15 years ahead of Turkey in UAV technology. That's just my opinion

Recent conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh showed increased utility of drones.

We can see how these small cheap drones slowly take the role of attack helicopters and destroy enemy tanks/APC/trucks etc.

Probably TANK as a weapon has no future--too many challenges for tank---ATGMs, mines, UAVs.

Tank is an expensive piece of metal that will be very diffcult to defend in the near future.

For example Armata is a 10mln$ tank that cost millions more to maintain--- and yet how will it survive an attack by cheap UAVs with cheap (50K$) missiles attacking from the top?

New generations of cheap/effective ATGMs will also make tank a useless/expensive piece of metal...(we have seen this in Yemen/Syria/Iraq)

Iran should invest in such weapons like:

1) New generation of effective ATGMs that will allow its infantry units to cheaply and effectively defend its territory from enemy armored formations

2) New stealth UAVs and cheap suicide UAVs that can take out enemy armor cheaply and effectively

3) precise quasi-ballistic missiles that can take out enemy aircrafts on their bases with high precision

4) effective air defences that can protect infrastructure from what will be left out of enemy airforce (after their bases will be bombarded by ballistic missiles)

These 4 weapons will allow Iran to effectively defend its territory from any regional and extra-regional power

 

[Hormuz]

Turkey has way more modernized army. Pkk? lol! Your the one who are hidding behind Russia in Syria who have conquered the Syrian lands under your nose. Because you failed against non-state actors so Russia had to save you.

You get daily bombed by Israel without ever answering? Israel can't even do that to Jordan how can it do to Iran repeatedly?

Turkey could do Iran in Alone? but yes Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Kazak, Turkemenistan and the other turkic nations are allies with Turkey or to put it short your neighbours. Don't kid yourself. Pakistan will come as a raging bull from the south. Nobody will tolerate miscalculations. Try to enrage Turkey and find out yourself how it will play out. You won't like it one bit

you didn't answer my question if the turkish army is that strong why the pkk still exist. non state actors? which those who erdogan and your masters saudi qatar uae israel and usa supportet with billions of dollars and manpower. boy i don't want u smoke or so but u need really and i mean really help.

at least we fight against isreal and don't coorperate with like erdogan. under none other president turkey had that much economic and military ties with israel like under erdogan. we rather get bombarded than sleeping with them in one bed cause when we say we fight for palestine we mean it not like u people just say to get popular by ur people.

if turkey could do Iran why it don't? why Iran is the main player in the region and not turkey? turkey couldn't even get whole of cypres and want come for iran? you couldn't even win against greek.
we shot mortas into pakistan to fight terrorist pakistan didn't do shit so pls as is said don't say things like that people will laugh at u.

i don't even know why i am replying to u.

when u wrote ur first post i was laughing now i think u need help and i just feel sorry.

 

[Hormuz]

View attachment 676433

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i just had lunch now i am hungry again

 

[Caspian Parsi]

and this is the Chill Thread of the iranian defence forum. the country that most of its military actions take place with religious roots or religious causes. so it is relevant much more than you think.

( at least it shows in this way ) you said it ..and i know its a show . all I'm saying is Arminians blood is as red as the Azaries ,we should not favor another country just because they share the same Religion.. BTW the islamic Azerbaijan is getting more cocky thanks to israelis Direct Military support .

 

[aryobarzan]

Now for a change of mood here is some photos :

This is the migration of Iranian (Aryan) Tribe of "Bakhtiaris". They migrate from northern mountains to southern plains as weather cools and vise versa every year..They have done this for thousands of years...It is beautiful and it is original.
Iran has peace and relative prosperity ...appreciate that...all around Iran people are killing each other ....Out of fairness lets give Iranian leaders some credit for that.

 

[Hormuz]

No thanks. I see things clear then you do and probably you have missed alot of key elements in truly watching cloesely a nations build up. Iran is just not there and I rated it fairly. Look tiny UAE can devastate Iran when it comes to military hardware who are way more armed then Iran. Aerial superiority and firepower.

From 2011-15 Iran failed miserably against non-state actors and got overrun which forced Russia to enter and push them back. They fired a rocket from Iran and it missed it's target in Deir-Ezzor. Tanks are shitty and the same with the airforce. It's just mediocrity at it's absolute best. Stop drinking the cool aid it's just not reality

the arab state don't even have qualified military personal for that hardware most of their military is mixed with sudanese and some northafrican arab states. they rent pilots from the u.s. military. so imagine an army with foreigners how do think they will fight for a country which they don't belong to.

how did Iran failed we hathe most influence in the region even in those years. at that time we already had military personal and hardware all over the middle east.

 

[skyshadow]

i just had lunch now i am hungry again

 

[sha ah]

This is such a joke. The US sends a SPY into Iran and now wants money for him ? LOL In most nations spies are either executed or receive a life sentence.

US Court Orders Iran to Pay $1.4 Billion in Damages to Missing Former FBI Agent's Family

In a decision issued late last week, US District Judge Timothy Kelly said he adopted a special expert's recommendation that Robert Levinson's family be awarded $107 million in compensatory damages

www.voanews.com

This article mentions "demonstrations" in Iran. The pro-Azerbaijan demonstration. Those 20 or so punks that burned the Armenian flag in Tabriz ? They dispersed as soon as they were confronted by security forces. In my opinion, they should be identified and charged with HATE crimes. Both Azeri and Armenian people are Iranian citizens and part of Iran. Any hate directed towards any ethnic group in Iran is unacceptable.

Iran’s delicate balancing act in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

Iran shares borders with Armenia and Azerbaijan, and is home to communities with origins in both countries.

www.aljazeera.com