Be realistic, if another missile existed, they would have shown it by now, considering their budget, and how they played with Hawk systems during these years, when they say Kamin is a mobile upgrade to Mersad, then you can be rest assured that there is no new nothing, they have decided to use the same old hawk missiles as a short range ADS.
What do you think of 105km range?
Its not about realistic or not, look at the video, the Kamin-2 and its TEL is visible and its new and 30% smaller than a Sayyad-2.
As for the 105km 3rd Khordad: Yes, with improved battery it would be able to attack a approaching AWACS, E-2, B-52 or tanker at mid altitude from that range. But a crossing supersonic fighter, highly unlikely.
Still a good to have capability upgrade.
Here some relevant pieces I wrote in another about the Tabas ADS and ADS in general:
I can say that the Tabas SAM system, with its mechanically steered radar, is probably one of the most cost effective ADS.
It is like a super slow, small Mig-29 with 3 BVR missiles. Tabas systems would drive to any area where the enemy would try to push through the IADS barrier. Contested, near hostile ground, where the enemy is trying to gain air superiority.
It just needs IADS information about something approaching, drive out of the warehouse or out from below the bridge, turn on its old school mechanically scanned radar, find the target, paint it with EM energy and it's SAM will go for the kill. It shoots and scoots in the matter of few minutes. A true BVR fighter on the ground probably for just 2-3 million $ a TELAR with 3 SAMs.
The Tabas has its fixed role in the Iranian IADS mix.
-It will operate at the closest frontline where IFF is no big issue
-Its search capability is secondary (but there) as it will rely on IADS early warning data of identified targets that are worth to be attacked.
-As single TELAR with just one communication car assigned to it, it will have smallest possible footprint
-Once the IADS assigned target is locked, the mechanical Mig-29 style radar will put a high energy amount on the target for the SAM's SARH seeker. Job done, pulling the jacks up and back into hiding position.
The attack cycle is too short, too simple to expect a HARM counter attack.
As said a Mig-29 on the ground, just 10 times cheaper. Imagine how many system and what coverage such a low price and high systems numbers allow.
An example what the Tabas means for the IADS. Imagine you are protecting a city under siege with your SOF squad (3rd Khordad). You know that down the street you have a tank in defensive position with some infantry and mortars (Bavar-373). Suddenly your squad comes under attack by small arms from a certain direction, a unfavorably one. You take your radio and ask whether someone can take out the attacker. The rear tank and mortar unit says yes, I can turn that spot into rubble. But then a hiding Basiji sniper also answers and says that he is closest to that position, sees the attacker and can take them out by his old bolt action 7.62mm sniper rifle (Tabas).
Basijis bring numbers into the battle, same as the Tabas. You can't replace Basijis with SOF units or heavy armored/artillery units, not if you are fighting an much stronger enemy.
Missile accuracy is sufficient: The directional frag warheads work best at some distance to the target such a 10m, having a 30-60m kill radius.
The 3rd Khordad battery is a upper tier IADS asset to the Tabas: Bashir advanced PESA radar and 3-4 3rd Khordad TELARs with a slave TEL.
The Bashir PESA just has lower LPI capabilities than a AESA, in terms of "speed" and range it is like a AESA (you can replace the Bashir with a Najam-802 if you think AESAs are needed here).
This is a whole structured SAM system that can work without IADS support if needed. Some SHORAD and AAA is also welcome here because the Bashir radar of the system needs protection.
Now the difference to the Tabas: This is a single independent autonomous system it works at a lower tier-level than the 3rd Khordad battery structure.
The Tabas does not need a battery structure! It just need a Toyota communication vehicle, HF and UHF radio link is already sufficient.
It can drive and hide somewhere 20-30km from the next IADS communication node.
It can receive location of a identified target from:
- IADS
- 3rd Khordad battery
- Search with its own radar if necessary (here it has a risk of detection due to its old school radar)
The Tabas is the infantry soldier of Iranian SAMs. At $2-3m it is expandable (20 Tabas forthe price of a single Su-30). Due to its battery independent nature you can have many location along the frontline with single Tabas systems. This means very small footprint: No convoy of vehicles like a SAM battery.
If you realize what a capability this means, you understand that it is not outdated at all. It is more one of the genius asymmetrical approaches of the IRGC.
It shows that every technology, even older ones can have a valuable place.
Just to show what this means: 30 years ago, at the end of the war, the IRGC bought SA-2 batteries for million dollars. If you would have told them that in 25 years a single vehicle would do the same job at almost twice the range for 2-3 million $, just with half the missile load as penalty...
Its exactly systems like the Tabas that stop ideas like Su-30s to come true. Decision makers will take those 20 Tabas over one Su-30SM every day in Irans current threat situation.
A SAM concentration node like the 3rd Khordad can engage 16 targets at once, has 24 ready to fire missiles and would still cost cost probably half as much as a Su-30 at $35-40m. A S-300PMU-2 battalion able to engage 6 targets with 32 ready to fire missiles costs $150-200m. That's a price for which you can get more than 4 full size 3rd Khordad battery which create 4 circles with 150km radius protecting about the same area as a S-300 but with 64 guidance channels and 96 ready to fire missiles, each several times cheaper than a S-300 SAM.
So to conclude:
For 150-200 million dollars you can get following systems:
- 1 S-300 battalion, 6 simultaneous engagements, 36 ready to fire missiles, 400km protected circle area
- 3 Su-30SM with variable location, 8-10 simultaneous engagements with 8-10 missiles, a variable 120km circle protected. Secondary role as bomber.
- 4 3rd Khordad full size batteries, 64 simultaneous engagements, 96 ready to fire missiles protecting a circle area of about 300km
- 60 single vehicle autonomous Tabas systems, with 60 simultaneous engagements, 180 ready to fire missiles, protecting 60 circle areas of 100km
Protected square km ranking:
1- Tabas = 471 000km²
2- 3rd Khordad = 282 000km²
3- S-300 = 125 000km²
4- Su-30SM = 33 000km² (variable location)
System redundancy ranking (how many single critical systems to kill to knock out whole system complex)
1- Tabas = 60
2- 3rd Khordad = 16
3- Su-30SM = 3
4- S-300 = 1
The Tabas can only achieve this overall system performance by using the most cost effective technologies and avoid pitfalls like "AESA is a must". Thanks god there is no influential military industrial complex in Iran that dictates developments. IRGC ideas that allow Iran to protect itself against a enemy with 50-times high military budget.
Fun fact: Tabas or 3rd Khordad does not need to kill the enemy aircraft --> they just need to endanger them sufficiently that they feel necessary to fly at lower levels.
Once they are in that envelope, other systems such as SHORAD, MANPADs and AAA will become dangerous. Even if no kill can be achieved, low altitude means haff the range and half the speed… Figure out what adverse impact this has on airpower.
