Iran's major deterrence against US attack throughout decades ---was its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz and do substantial damage to global economy---BUT RIGHT NOW AS GLOBAL ECONOMY IS IN RECESSION AND OIL MARKET IS OVERSUPPLIED--
THIS MEAN OF DETERRENCE WON'T WORK
3 month from now, pandemic will probably stop and all oil storage facilities in the world will be filled with oil
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...0-a-barrel-as-world-runs-out-of-storage-space
Current situation is different, and US can calculate that they can attack Iran in order to: 1) destroy its infrastructure and weaken its economy 2)destroy its nuclear program
How will Iran respond?
1) Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz and attack Saudi oil infrastructure-----but currently, oil market is oversupplied by 25mln barrels of oil per day----loss of 21mln barrels of oil per day from the Persian Gulf will bring
balance to the oil market and will increase oil price to 60$ per barrel which is a comfortable price for US shale oil industry.
Also Strait of Hormuz will be reopened after 1-2 month since the start of hostilities---and by that time Iranian military and infrastructure will be destroyed and Iran will not be a threat anymore
2) Iran will launch 2500 ballistic missiles doing some damage that Americans can tolerate--but US bombing campaign against Iranian infrastructure will do unbearable damage to Iran
By bombing Iran and destroying its infrastructure they can weaken Iran to the point when Iran will be unable to maintain its sphere of influence in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.---
AND THIS IS THE MAJOR GOAL
Iran will be so weakened by massive bombing campaign, destruction of critical infrastructure and massive sanctions, that its sphere of influence throughout Middle East and its ability to threaten Arabian peninsula will collapse ...In addition they can destroy nuclear infrastructure.
Iranian response in the Strait of hormuz (that will be reopened after 1-2 month) will be insignificant to global economy in
current circumstances.
The game has changed and this recession and lack of global demand for oil is a very dangerous time for Iran.