nightcrawler
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DefenceDog: It all started with Tunisia - Part III
Abstracts:
Abstracts:
- The Turkish army - one of the most professional and well-equipped in the region and if necessary, can be used outside the country. Trials of the generals and a referendum to change the constitution in September 2010 allowed the country's political leadership to take the armed forces under effective control, eliminating the repetition of repeated military coups in the past. Course on the cooling of relations with Israel; weakened the military-technical potential of the Turkish Armed Forces, but in the Islamic world, Turkey's army has no real opponents. Comparable with it in numbers, training and motivation of aircraft and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran is much weaker armed and aimed at a confrontation with Israel, the Gulf monarchies and their supporting contingents of U.S. and UK.
- Opposing of Indian army had made Pakistan an equivalent Turkish army on the equipment and preparation, it has considerably larger combat experience and nuclear weapon; but not one scenario of potential regional conflicts does provide conflict of interest between Ankara and Islamabad.
- The clash in the future interests of Turkey with Iran would almost be certain both because of the direction taken by both countries policy of strategic hegemony in the Islamic world, and because of the tactical contradictions in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.
- At the same time the completion of Russian nuclear power plant under the supervision of the IAEA in Bushehr, has made it second to Pakistan as a nuclear-armed state in Middle East. Of particular note is the role of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan in creating and promoting the Iranian nuclear program through a network called Abdul Qadeer Khan, whose action is not excluded, is currently ongoing.
- Turkey's reaction to their forceful suppression of Damascus said that the rapprochement between Ankara and Tehran can only be on specific issues and to a certain limit. Iran's leadership has established working relations with Afghanistan (investment and humanitarian assistance) and Pakistan (gas supply), but the Taliban, Al Qaeda, drug dealers, terrorists and Baluchi separatists pose a serious threat to the eastern provinces of Iran.
- It is not excluded that in the event of an escalation of the conflict between Iran and KSA Tehran could deal a fatal blow to gerontocracy in Riyadh, triggering the collapse of Saudi Arabia. It is unlikely that it will have time to enjoy the fruits of this victory. Securing Iran as a leading force in the long term is possible only on the territory of the dominant Shiite population. In the fight to the regimes of the Gulf; Iran pursues its own interests, but the prospects for regional hegemony for Turkey are clear.
- Iranian attack on US facilities in the Gulf. The latter can be done with the massive use of medium-range missiles, fire ships, aircraft, bombers, terrorists and special forces. Considering professionalism, high motivation and combat experience Iranian Revolutionary Guard soldiers in case of direct clashes, can cause Wests Expeditionary Force serious loss in manpower and technology, especially the tactics of the Europeans has been studied by Iranians as an example of Afghan and Iraqi campaigns of the last decade. In this case, Iran will suffer irreparable loss. In the event of a collision with Israel, outnumbered Iranian army will compensate outdated military equipment, which it is currently armed of. Major efforts to achieve victory over Iran will be included in a remote war, using naval groups of missiles and long-range aviation. Strike on Iran, facilitated by its lack of modern air defense systems, will trigger a flood of refugees (from a few hundred thousand to several million people) in the direction of Azerbaijan and Russia to destabilize the Caspian Sea and Central Asia - Tajikistan in the first place and increase the terrorist threat in Russia's North Caucasus especially in Dagestan.
- According to Iran's military doctrine for Israel the country of one bomb." If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, the temptation to strike a blow against Israel, using this "one bomb" can prove to be stronger than pragmatic geopolitical plans, especially since Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya have shown the boundaries of the West's military presence in the Middle East.
