Just my thoughts
Major assumption, AD system might be close to the shoreline, UAS downed very close to the shoreline. It's possible they have moved their AD systems closer to the shoreline to get a better LOS, and closer lock on the targets before they enter.
Low altitude interception, would indicate something short range. I don't know if any of you guys know if BUK-M1 can intercept targets at this altitude? I presume if launched from a 20-30km distance, it might probably do it? Otherwise, a short range system is deployed nearby, to intercept in the 5-10km envelope.
EO/IR systems setup on the shoreline can catch incoming UAS, giving some more time to react to them.
Possible Counter measure(s) (My thoughts)
- Combination of land attack and anti-radar S-136's can be used in Tandem to lure AD, and target it. May or may not work. Closer you are to the radars, higher likely it is intercepted. Numbers would be key here.
- Force activation of illumination radars, If Russia wants to commit anti-radiation missiles, it could work, or use higher altitude Orlans-10, or Shahed-191 UCAV's to monitor the interceptor launch position and directly target it or, follow for it's hiding location.
- Or just raw numbers, wage attrition warfare against the batteries with constant land attack UAS, if they do not attempt interception, then target is hit anyways, if they do, their expensive stockpile of SAMs is eroded.
