Iran presidential election 1400-2021

[Hormuz]

Traditionally, voters for the conservative party are mainly people from Basij, rural areas and others that would go for whoever that the party chooses as its first choice. They are like conservative old people from the Central US. You can see how conservatives have already started attacking Saeed Mohammad and his reputation. They don't need a new voice. They need someone from their own gang, like the reformists. Look at their history, particularly the most recent one: Ghalibaf had to withdraw in favor of Raeesi even though he really seemed eager about becoming the president.

The percentage of independent voters in Iran is not that high yet. Less than 10% of the people actually follow independent media and journalists like Omid Dana.

i agree with you 100%. but if rahbar is indirectly supporting saeed mohmmad? he already said in some of his speeches that the country need a young president and i am sure he didn't mean jahromi.

one more thing i would like to add is, that khamenei knows Iran won't go a good path neither with the conservatives nor with the reformist. reformist will sell Iran to western countries and conservative to their own families, cause both parties are corrupt as hell. and i am saying that since long time not here in the forum but to family and friends that Iran need someone form the military to get president.

 

[Arian]

i agree with you 100%. but if rahbar is indirectly supporting saeed mohmmad? he already said in some of his speeches that the country need a young president and i am sure he didn't mean jahromi.

Yeah. If Khamenei supports him then that will definitely boost his chance for winning the election greatly because other conservative figures won't go against Khamenei for the good of their own political career in the conservative party. But Khamenei won't reveal his support for him, at least not before the election is over. He might give indirect clues that only some people would get it, not everyone.

Honestly, we still don't know much about this Saeed Mohammad guy. We will know more about him in May after presidential debates hopefully.

I don't think Khamenei is at the rudder anymore.

From my studies of Iranian political system, I can tell it's very far from "Qom running the country." The government is very much on its own, though the guard, and the military is too.

Khamenei tries not to attract too much attention to himself by remaining passive. A lot of people blame him for the current situation and he is acting very cautiously lately. But he remains by far the most powerful person in the country by the constitution. He can nullify the presidency of Rouhani or any parliament member or any minister at the stroke of a pen. Not to forget that he is also seen by many people outside of Iran as the Leader of the followers of the Shiite sect of Islam.

 

[TheImmortal]

Not to forget that he is also seen by many people outside of Iran as the Leader of the followers of the Shiite sect of Islam.

I disagree on that assessment. Sistani of Iraq is seen as the true leader of Shia Islam from a pure religious standpoint. After all, even the pope just went to visit him. I don’t believe in the history of IR, the Pope has visited Iran. Although envoys have.

 

[Arian]

I disagree on that assessment. Sistani of Iraq is seen as the true leader of Shia Islam from a pure religious standpoint. After all, even the pope just went to visit him. I don’t believe in the history of IR, the Pope has visited Iran. Although envoys have.

Yeah, that was probably one of the goals of his travel to Iraq as well. But have you seen Shiite people abroad in places like Kashmir, Nigeria, Lebanon or other places holding photos of Sistani? Many Shiite people hold Khamenei's photo in rallies and gatherings. Khamenei has a lot more resources and power than Sistani can ever have.

 

[TheImmortal]

Yeah, that was probably one of the goals of his travel to Iraq as well. But have you seen Shiite people abroad in places like Kashmir, Nigeria, Lebanon or other places holding photos of Sistani? Many Shiite people hold Khamenei's photo in rallies and gatherings. Khamenei has a lot more resources and power than Sistani can ever have.

I am not sure if you are serious or just that clueless. Because they are funded by IRGC/IR Shiite promotion efforts so of course they will carry the picture of the establishment paying for their conversion/religious education/etc.

That’s like saying have you ever walked into a store in Iran and they have a picture of Khamenai on the wall, they must really like him.

Sistani actually has the Ayatollah rank, Khameani was just promoted to it. So from a theology standpoint Sistani outranks Khameani.

 

[Arian]

I am not sure if you are serious or just that clueless. Because they are funded by IRGC/IR Shiite promotion efforts so of course they will carry the picture of the establishment paying for their conversion/religious education/etc.

That’s like saying have you ever walked into a store in Iran and they have a picture of Khamenai on the wall, they must really like him.

Sistani actually has the Ayatollah rank, Khameani was just promoted to it. So from a theology standpoint Sistani outranks Khameani.

How is Iran funding rallies in Kashmir? If you said Lebanon, Iraq, or even Nigeria, I would accept it. But Kashmir in India? Not a chance.

Shiite Islam has always had a political dimension to it. Khamenei is currently the most important anti-American figure among world leaders. Sistani is just an old guy living in a country currently invaded by anti-Muslim Americans. Don't you see the difference? Grand Ayatollah or not, Khamenei is more popular than Sistani. Even if Sistani is more knowledgeable about Shiite Islam.

 

[TheImmortal]

How is Iran funding rallies in Kashmir? If you said Lebanon, Iraq, or even Nigeria, I would accept it. But Kashmir in India? Not a chance.

Shiite Islam has always had a political dimension to it. Khamenei is currently the most important anti-American figure among world leaders. Sistani is just an old guy living in a country currently invaded by anti-Muslim Americans. Don't you see the difference? Grand Ayatollah or not, Khamenei is more popular than Sistani. Even if Sistani is more knowledgeable about Shiite Islam.

Iran has Quds force officers in Kashmir and Pakistan. How else do you think they drew up a foreign legion of Pakistani Shiites to fight in Syria? Maybe put advertisements in News papers? Give me a break

You forget that Ghaani head of Quds Force handled the Pakistan/Afghanistan/India file for Quds force for decades. Which ment that Iran was promoting its version of Islamic Revolution and Shiitism across the Middle East. Promotion includes spreading information about Shiite Islam through the Middle East and funding various Islamic learning centers in communities.

And calling Sistani “some old guy” shows your immaturity and quite frankly lack of respect. I would suggest you grow up a bit.

This might seem a shock to someone who doesn’t follow Shiite Islam, but most clerics (including Sistani) believe in separation of Church and State this belief also is popular in Qom as well.

So Sistani has no interest in geopolitics or the great game. Nor is he paying for cultural learning centers across the globe to spread Shiite Islam. Two different schools of thought. That doesn’t make him lesser than Khamenai. The places you mentioned are either in the IRGC/IR Shiite Umbrella or being nurtured to be in.

And Khamenai’s popularity is low across the Middle East and even in Iran when compared to the early 2000’s and 1990’s. Part of that is succesfull propaganda efforts by Israel/PG Arabs/House of Saud/and US along with deteriorating economic conditions in Iran.

 

[Arian]

Iran has Quds force officers in Kashmir and Pakistan. How else do you think they drew up a foreign legion of Pakistani Shiites to fight in Syria? Maybe put advertisements in News papers? Give me a break

You forget that Ghaani head of Quds Force handled the Pakistan/Afghanistan/India file for Quds force for decades. Which ment that Iran was promoting its version of Islamic Revolution and Shiitism across the Middle East. Promotion includes spreading information about Shiite Islam through the Middle East and funding various Islamic learning centers in communities.

And calling Sistani “some old guy” shows your immaturity and quite frankly lack of respect. I would suggest you grow up a bit.

This might seem a shock to someone who doesn’t follow Shiite Islam, but most clerics (including Sistani) believe in separation of Church and State this belief also is popular in Qom as well.

So Sistani has no interest in geopolitics or the great game. Nor is he paying for cultural learning centers across the globe to spread Shiite Islam. Two different schools of thought. That doesn’t make him lesser than Khamenai. The places you mentioned are either in the IRGC/IR Shiite Umbrella or being nurtured to be in.

And Khamenai’s popularity is low across the Middle East and even in Iran when compared to the early 2000’s and 1990’s. Part of that is succesfull propaganda efforts by Israel/PG Arabs/House of Saud/and US along with deteriorating economic conditions in Iran.

In Pakistan? Yes. In Kashmir? What's your source for claiming that? I doubt that the Indian government would allow a Quds Force office in Kashmir.

Hasn't Sistani called on the US and Iran on several ocassions about the conflicts in Iraq? How does that fall along your assumption that he believes in secularism?

If you want to think that Sistani has more soft power than Khamenei, that's fine with me. So, let's agree to disagree.

 

[TheImmortal]

In Pakistan? Yes. In Kashmir? What's your source for claiming that? I doubt that the Indian government would allow a Quds Force office in Kashmir.

Yes, because when Quds officers arrive into countries they promptly announce themselves as Quds officers How did that Indian intelligence officer get into Iran?

Quds gets in the same way Mossad/CIA/MI6 get into countries and in the Middle East.

As for Sistani he likes neither the Iranian or US presence in his country. He may use his influence to suggest a better path for his country. But the man is not playing the great game like Khamenai. He is a cleric who believes the religious establishment shouldn’t interfere with the government too much or seen as questioning the legitimacy of elected officials.

Given how his simple decree during ISIS invasion gave rise to tens of thousands of Iraqi volunteers. The man is so respected in Iraq he could have seized power much like Khomeini did if he wanted. But he hasn’t.

If you want to say Khamenai is the face of Axis of Resistance than that is believable. But the face of Shiite Islam from a theology standpoint? No. Because many Shiites and Shiite derivative religions (Alawites, Houthis) do not accept the notion of “Velayat-e faqih” much less that Khamenai is the leader.

 

[Arian]

Yes, because when Quds officers arrive into countries they promptly announce themselves as Quds officers How did that Indian intelligence officer get into Iran?

Quds gets in the same way Mossad/CIA/MI6 get into countries and in the Middle East.

As for Sistani he likes neither the Iranian or US presence in his country. He may use his influence to suggest a better path for his country. But the man is not playing the great game like Khamenai. He is a cleric who believes the religious establishment shouldn’t interfere with the government too much or seen as questioning the legitimacy of elected officials.

Given how his simple decree during ISIS invasion gave rise to tens of thousands of Iraqi volunteers. The man is so respected in Iraq he could have seized power much like Khomeini did if he wanted. But he hasn’t.

If you want to say Khamenai is the face of Axis of Resistance than that is believable. But the face of Shiite Islam from a theology standpoint? No. Because many Shiites and Shiite derivative religions (Alawites, Houthis) do not accept the notion of “Velayat-e faqih” much less that Khamenai is the leader.

I mistakenly read office instead of officers. Nevertheless, in the absence of any evidence that Quds Force is to any extent responsible for the situation in Kashmir, that argument holds no merit.

He is not playing the great game like Khamenei because he cannot. We are not talking about forming a cult here, but rather about militias. Khamenei has over a million military personnel and over a million trained and equipped Basij members under his command. He has tanks, submarines, jet fighters, helicopters, missiles, UAVs, etc. What does Sistani have? Could Sistani form something like Hashd Al-Shaabi and fund it on his own without Iran? Iran has multiple such proxies in the region without him. Even the faction of Hashd-Al Shaabi that is loyal to Iran is the strongest in comparison to others loyal to others, including Sistani.

And who armed those tens of thousands? Could he properly arm even a thousand people on his own to seize power?

I talked about the leadership of Shiite people in the world. Sistani simply does not have the resources for that at his disposal. You're saying that Sistani is more knowledgeable about Islam and has a better scholarly reputation among Shiite scholars. OK. Fine. But is that the only thing that matters?

 

[TheImmortal]

You're saying that Sistani is more knowledgeable about Islam and has a better scholarly reputation among Shiite scholars. OK. Fine. But is that the only thing that matters?

Khamenai is the face of Axis of Resistance, but asking a Muslim who their spiritual leader is they would probably name a local cleric or at best an ayatollah in their city/country. Very few would say they get religious guidance from Khamenai.

Again you have to separate politics from religion when you make that statement. Issue you have is your mixing the two.

 

[WudangMaster]

I think that while a great many Shia hold up pictures of Khamenei and have various levels of respect, I believe their taghlid is more likely with Sistani and his predecessor, Khoie. My grand parents were IRI supporters but staunchly took taghlid from Khoie and then Sistani. So I think both of you are making valid points regarding Khamenei's popularity as a marjae taghlid vs his gravitas as the leader of a re emerging Iran. For sure, he and Khomeini were the most famous in history, even though they did not officially have the greatest taghlid numbers. There is far more to the two leaders of the IRI than to the 2 akhoonds, khoei and sistani, when it comes to their places in world history.

 

[Arian]

Khamenai is the face of Axis of Resistance, but asking a Muslim who their spiritual leader is they would probably name a local cleric or at best an ayatollah in their city/country. Very few would say they get religious guidance from Khamenai.

Again you have to separate politics from religion when you make that statement. Issue you have is your mixing the two.

Well, from the very beginning, I assumed and openly said that Shiite Islam has a political dimension to it. Or at least it's been like this in Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon. If we want to talk about scholarly issues, we have better qualified Shiite clerics in Iran than Khamenei that have more moghalleds. But that doesn't make them have a higher position than him in the Shiite world.

But here's the ultimate question: If Sistani issues a fitwa that goes against Khamenei completely, do you think forces loyal to Iran would stop following Khamenei because of that? Do you think Sistani can in any way threaten Khamenei and his influence in the region? Because Khamenei has a fair chance of reducing Sistani's role in Iraq to only a Shiite scholar if he really intends to.

 

[WudangMaster]

Well, from the very beginning, I assumed and openly said that Shiite Islam has a political dimension to it. Or at least it's been like this in Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon. If we want to talk about scholarly issues, we have better qualified Shiite clerics in Iran than Khamenei that have more moghalleds. But that doesn't make them have a higher position than him in the Shiite world.

But here's the ultimate question: If Sistani issues a fitwa that goes against Khamenei completely, do you think forces loyal to Iran would stop following Khamenei because of that? Do you think Sistani can in any way threaten Khamenei and his influence in the region? Because Khamenei has a fair chance of reducing Sistani's role in Iraq to only a Shiite scholar if he really intends to.

I think there was a little of friction regarding their position vis a vis the Veleyat Faghih but I don't know how impactful that is today as opposed to the 1990s because IRI has resuced many a shia group from annihilation since then and so Khamenei today might have some more sway over Iraqi shia today than early 2000s. Also, I don't know if other marja outside of Iran are as opposed to the Velayat position as some were before and if that makes a difference.

 

[TheImmortal]

Well, from the very beginning, I assumed and openly said that Shiite Islam has a political dimension to it. Or at least it's been like this in Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon. If we want to talk about scholarly issues, we have better qualified Shiite clerics in Iran than Khamenei that have more moghalleds. But that doesn't make them have a higher position than him in the Shiite world.

But here's the ultimate question: If Sistani issues a fitwa that goes against Khamenei completely, do you think forces loyal to Iran would stop following Khamenei because of that? Do you think Sistani can in any way threaten Khamenei and his influence in the region? Because Khamenei has a fair chance of reducing Sistani's role in Iraq to only a Shiite scholar if he really intends to.

There is friction between the two men for sure. It has been widely documented. Many in Iraq follow Sistani and not Khamenai. The ones that do follow Khamenai are actively supported by IRGC in some fashion. The average Muslim in Iraq with little to no business ties or family ties to Iran likely follows Sistani.

The people of Iraq love Sistani, so Khamenai moves are quite limited if he doesn’t wish to turn Iraqis against him and Iran which already a part of Iraqis are resenting Iran for turning Iraq into a proxy battle between US and Iran along with the massive influence Iran has on Iraqi politics and seen as interfering in Iraqis domestic politics.