Iran nuclear deal, 2018.

[PeaceGen]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...heads-to-iran-to-save-nuclear-deal-from-trump

France's Le Drian Heads to Iran to Save Nuclear Deal From Trump
By
Kambiz Foroohar
,
Ladane Nasseri
, and
Gregory Viscusi
March 5, 2018, 6:01 AM GMT+1

• Foreign minister must reassure Iran while appeasing Trump
• Intensive talks are under way ahead of Trump’s May 12 deadline

Jean-Yves Le Drian Photographer: Xaume Olleros/Bloomberg
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian is traveling to Tehran as part of a European drive to salvage the nuclear deal with Iran that President Donald Trump is threatening to scuttle and the Islamic Republic has said it may be forced to abandon.



Le Drian’s trip on Monday -- the first by an official in President Emmanuel Macron’s administration -- is a balancing act: He’ll need to reassure Iran of the European commitment to delivering economic benefits that were promised in the 2015 deal in return for curbing its nuclear program. But he must appease Trump, who’s vowed to back out of the multinational pact if Europe didn’t help “fix” its “flaws.”



The trip is a foreign policy test for Macron, who’s managed to cultivate a closer relationship with the “America First” president than have other European leaders.



It will signal whether “France is independent and its relations with Iran are based on its own national interests rather than aligned with U.S. policy,” said Clement Therme, a research fellow with London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies who focuses on Iran.



Intensive Talks
In a phone call on Sunday, Macron’s office said, the French president told Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani that while his country remains committed to the nuclear deal, it has “demands about problems that are not within the accord,” such as Iran’s ballistic missile program and its regional activities, especially in Lebanon. “He underlined our expectations for a constructive contribution from Iran for a regional de-escalation and to work toward resolving crises in the Middle East,” according to the statement.

U.S. officials have been holding intensive talks with their counterparts in France, Germany and the U.K. -- which joined Russia, China and the U.S. in crafting the accord with Iran -- on how to address Trump’s concerns. The effective deadline is May 12, the next time Trump is due to decide whether to continue waiving sanctions under a U.S. law.

While Trump has called, in effect, for reopening the nuclear deal by making permanent some restrictions on Iran’s uranium enrichment that expire over coming years, Europeans are focusing on complaints that aren’t within the four corners of the accord -- including the ballistic missile program and Iran’s expanding involvement in regional strife.

Willing to Bend?
“The main thing the French need to tell Iran is that we are trying to create conditions whereby this deal can be sustained with U.S. participation,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow at the European Council of Foreign Relations. “They will also want to have quite a robust conversation to address European security issues in the region, which includes conflict in Yemen and Syria and the missiles” program.

Iranian and European officials have held a series of talks in the past month to gauge areas of mutual concern, said two European diplomats who were briefed on the meetings. Iran has signaled some willingness to limit its ballistic-missile testing and would be open to discussing its regional role, they said.

Le Drian’s trip to Tehran coincides with a visit to Washington by Israeli’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Before his plane took off from Israel, Netanyahu said his first priority in talks with Trump at the White House on Monday will be to discuss Iran’s “aggression, its nuclear aspirations, and its aggressive actions in the Middle East in general and on our borders.” Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful.

Read more: Netanyahu Tries to Leave Graft Charges Behind on Trump Visit

France, the U.K. and Germany -- known as the E3 -- joined the U.S. last week in condemning Iran’s alleged shipments of missiles to Houthi rebels in Yemen. At the same time, the European Union’s Ambassador to the U.S., David O’Sullivan, has cautioned that the EU wouldn’t support reimposing trade sanctions lifted under the nuclear deal under a different rationale.

“We will not do anything which jeopardizes the deal, which is absolutely fundamental to Europe’s national security,” O’Sullivan said in a meeting with Bloomberg News editors and reporters in Washington.

So far, Iran has adhered to the terms of the nuclear deal, as verified by International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors in 10 reports since the pact was implemented in January 2016. But the economic benefits it’s receiving in return have fallen short of expectations, even after energy and financial sanctions were lifted. Major banks and companies have avoided engaging with Iran from fear of running afoul of remaining U.S restrictions or seeing a “snapback” of sanctions given Trump’s threats.

Related Story: Europeans Dig In Against New Iran Sanctions Risking Deal

Iran may be forced to leave the deal if the “destructive atmosphere” created by Trump doesn’t end, Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in February. Tehran “cannot remain in a deal in which there is no benefit for us,” he said.

Europeans, led by French companies, have signed some major deals with Iran after a decade of strict sanctions.

Trade between France and Iran had fallen to 515 million euros in 2014 after years of sanctions, from 3.7 billion euros in 2004. In 2016, the year sanctions were eased, it bounced back to 722 million euros in exports, mainly pharmaceuticals, medical equipment and specialty chemicals, and 1.4 billion euros in imports -- almost all of it oil.

Auto Deals
Peugeot SA linked up with Iran Khodro Co. to refurbish a factory near Tehran that began producing a crossover model last year. Renault SA announced a joint venture in August 2017 to produce cars. National carrier Iran Air agreed on a deal of about $10 billion deal to buy 100 Airbus SE planes in December 2016. And energy giant Total SAis helping develop Iran’s South Pars gas field.

But most companies without a strong reason to be in Iran are staying away, said Ardavan Amir-Aslani, a lawyer at Cohen Amir-Aslani in Paris who handles Iranian affairs.

“There’s not a single major bank operating in Iran,” Amir-Aslani said. “There’s no large French, German or Italian bank there. Just weeny banks. There’s no project finance. The banks are all afraid they will be sanctioned by the U.S. Even if the risk is small, they think it’s too big a risk.”

— With assistance by Jonathan Ferziger

I have to warn the US against squeezing the Iranians too much.

While the demands seem reasonable from our side, they will seem like foreign interference to the Iranian leaderships.

Trump, you CAN NOT RULE THE WORLD WITH AN IRON FIST.

i'll be emailing this thread to the US, Dutch and Israeli government as well as several US and Dutch mass media corporations now.

i hate the fact this needs almost yearly attention, folks.
but a lot of lives and livelihoods are at stake, so i'll do it without complaining about having to do it.

 

[salarsikander]

Trump, you CAN NOT RULE THE WORLD WITH AN IRON FIST.

Arabs have seen what happens with out nuke, same thing happened MTO Iraq, Libya, Syria and so you cannot touch or harm Iran. Which is why you have to *** kiss Iran and can't make of any excuse to invade it.

 

[PeaceGen]

Actually i have different reasons, which i'm not going to explain. Not with people like you, with your attitude, hanging out on this forum.

 

[salarsikander]

Actually i have different reasons, which i'm not going to explain. Not with people like you, with your attitude, hanging out on this forum.

Different reason my ***. You just failed miserably t control taleban and Iran and are now shittng in pants. While ignoring Israel's own nuke. Fkimgg hypocrites

 

[PeaceGen]

you're ignoring all i'm trying to teach you, @salarsikander.
so i gotta ignore you now. sorry.

{update} i wrote another email to my mailing list (US, Dutch and Israeli government, US and Dutch mass media corporations),

about how not to pressure the Iranians into giving up their space program or even their military's activities outside Iran. everybody does that, so why not Iran?

and i'm now warning the Iranians to play the entire diplomacy and public statements aspects of this all in a cool and *nice* manner.
it's the only way you'll end up with less sanctions rather than more.

i had to encourage ex-President Obama and his team to go harder on Iran,
i will now encourage president Trump to go smarter and nicer on Iran than he had planned.

and i'll keep Netanyahu in check too.
i've already told the Israeli government and Mossad that his statements about Iran, that Iran needs to be 'stopped' as he said just now while visiting the White House, overshoot the objective of keeping Iran a non-nuclear-weapons state.

@salarsikander i'm not talking to you here. i'm talking to my regular audience, which is a bit smarter than you.

 

[salarsikander]

you're ignoring all i'm trying to teach you, @salarsikander.
so i gotta ignore you now. sorry.

Tryingnton teach me that destroying a country is justfed because it wishes t use gold system ( apparently this ii17 century where Dutch still have colonies) justifying that invasion Iraq was juatfied because it didn't want to sell its god given oil. But supporting Israel is justified because chriatians have right to massacre Jews and then impose them on Muslim.
Please this what your trying indoctrinate, then fk off

i'm not talking to you here. i'm talking to my regular audience, which is a bit smarter than you.

Yeah she people are on crack that's how they talk

i've already told the Israeli government and Mossad that his statements about Ira

And they will listen to youyour bullshit because, you're an royalty ?
Attention seeking whore

 

[PeaceGen]

i've reported your post, @salarsikander.

i won't respond to people who call me bad names, nor to people who place the ambitions of egos above the well-being of the world's populations. you do both.

 

[PeaceGen]

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/north-korean-nuclear-weapons-situation-2018.547637/#post-10309931

do read it. it directly concerns all Iranian leaderships.

 

[salarsikander]

i've reported your post, @salarsikander.

i won't respond to people who call me bad names, nor to people who place the ambitions of egos above the well-being of the world's populations. you do both.

Lol says the one who justfies the invasion of Muslim countries because they have the right to chose gold system to run their country. Pathetic

 

[ashok321]

Iran's foreign minister: America is already violating the nuclear deal

 

[PeaceGen]

Lol says the one who justfies the invasion of Muslim countries because they have the right to chose gold system to run their country. Pathetic

i've also made clear that such a move (re-introducing a gold-based economy) would pave the way for serious disruption of the world economy.
it's ridiculous to think we'll let ourselves be ruined in a war of attrition, or terrorism, or open war.

muslim rulers brought the resulting suffering and instability onto themselves and their peoples, thinking they can hurt us with seemingly innocent moves that are designed to erode our strength.

Iran's foreign minister: America is already violating the nuclear deal

Iran's government has been put on notice not to meddle outside their borders anymore.
personally i would want the war in Syria to end soon, with Assad still in power even though i would actually like to see him and his cronies hung for their serious crimes against their own people, and with both Russia and Iran given access to the Mediterranean sea in Syria.

however, Trump, yesterday in a TV announcement together with Macron from France, announced that he would not give Iran access to the Mediterranean sea.

fact is, Iran has a expansionist foreign policy. and they're actively sowing serious conflict in several countries (Syria, Lebanon, Yemen) to expand their influence.
i can't agree with that at all. neither can the Saudis, the Americans, nor the EU (assuming like i think it does, that Macron speaks for the EU when it comes to Iranian meddling in Syria).

several Muslim leaderships need to wrap their head around a basic truth :
if you try to expand your country's influence through violence,
you put yourselves on the list to be corrected by violence.

it's been going around in the conspiracy theory circles that the US has a list of countries that they want to regime-change and put under control through the installment of a western-controlled central bank. Iran is on that list. so is North-Korea.
while in the long run, this would probably bring stability, prosperity and a good measure of sovereignty to the peoples of such countries (Iraq as an example, Libyans are currently too busy with fighting eachother to enjoy such fruits),
it currently still has a large risk of bringing massive suffering to the people of such countries during the transition.

these are the variables of the equation as it stands today, i think.

but the variables and even the equation itself can be changed. new variables can be introduced. and they probably will be.

sanctions have not been very effective in the days of Saddam's rule over Iraq, because Saddam pushed the cost onto his people, who starved, and that suffering formed a strong recruitment tool for terrorist groups and supporters of hatred against the West.

and military action has shown, like it did in Libya, that some Muslim nations simply can not govern themselves because their tribes go to war with eachother after a dictator is removed.

but we do learn from our mistakes here in the West.
you'll find both sanctions and military action will be smarter and more effective in the future, while avoiding loss of innocent lives much more than before.

 

[timmy_area51]

the dutch used to rule the world . not anymore

 

[PeaceGen]

i'm not out to rule the world.
i do wish the world to be ruled better, with less wars for starters.

all i do on this forum is explain the Western viewpoints as they are revealed in international mass media, as they can be detected by common sense, and as it is revealed at that border-area that is common-sense plus the start of conspiracy-theory territory. the world is ruled by the small elite social circles some of which over here in the West, can be called part of the illuminati / masons.
but Assad and his cronies form another small elite circle, and the Royals of Saudi Arabia do too.
even in Iraq and Afghanistan, the well known politicians' names form the political elite in those countries.
in Iran, the elite is the religious and highest ranks of government.

i am not a part of such a political / military / religious / whatever elite social circle.
i'm a working-class hobbyist-analyst who desires less suffering caused by (unnecessary) wars, of which there are far too many in progress today and for the past 2 decades or so.

so i just read the news, try to figure out how peace processes get stalled and how wars get started and stopped.
and then i come here on this forum and find frequent serious misunderstandings about what the West does in the Middle East,
misunderstandings that are direct recruitment tools for terror groups,
and i feel it's useful to counter that as much as possible.

that is not always easy in the face of lies and personal attacks against my viewpoints and person,
but i've got a thick skin and i don't like to rub things in; i don't like to repeat myself.

 

[salarsikander]

i've also made clear that such a move (re-introducing a gold-based economy) would pave the way for serious disruption of the world economy.
it's ridiculous to think we'll let ourselves be ruined in a war of attrition, or terrorism, or open war.

muslim rulers brought the resulting suffering and instability onto themselves and their peoples, thinking they can hurt us with seemingly innocent moves that are designed to erode our strength

They have every right to bring any system, if you feel you can't compete and start bombing the shit out of innocent people, then don't scream when you get attacked by lone wolves then, shithead

 

[PeaceGen]

They have every right to bring any system, if you feel you can't compete and start bombing the shit out of innocent people, then don't scream when you get attacked by lone wolves then, shithead

you *don't* have the right to 'bring any system'. if a system you bring disrupts the world economy, that brings serious potential for economic suffering to us, and with that the start of military-level attrition (degrading of strength over time).

we over here don't want to be ruled by Muslims, or Chinese, or Russians. we don't want to be crippled economically or militarily either, we don't like how Muslims or Chinese or Russians run their parts of the world. we have our own way of life.

and to protect that way of life, we are forced by peoples that have come to hate us, to set strong examples from time to time, but only when provoked. and we'll make sure we continue to be able to defend ourselves and our economies.

if we leave you alone, the global oil market is seriously disrupted by all the infighting between Muslims in the Middle East.
that is a very serious threat to our way of life, up the point that we'd have serious trouble keeping our supermarkets supplied, let alone power the rest of our economy.

and there are other more subtle ways that Muslims try to use (re-introduction of even a tiny gold-based economy, a quick transition away from using the US Dollar for international trade of for instance oil), to achieve such total chaos here in the West that we'd collapse as a civilization.
we're not going to let any such thing happen. not ever. it's one of the reasons we're not into expensive ground invasions anymore, and having recently (Trump said this yesterday with Macron from France next to him in a public annoucnement on TV) put the wealthy Arab Gulf allies on notice to start paying more for American help in their extended region (aka Saudis paying the bill for US troops in Syria, and Saudi troops helping in Syria alongside US troops, something like that).
So the original grand plan of alQuada ('force The West into invasion after invasion to drain their treasury and get and endless supply of new recruits at the same time), and their 2nd big plan ('starve our own people to gain more recruits')... both of these plans are now thoroughly defeated.

and we know that if a morally sane side like ours has a clear military advantage over another group (Muslims) that hates us intensely (and often for bullshit reasons or reasons based on lies), war can be prevented in most cases.
therefore all this talk about military equality and how it's "unfair" that Israel has nukes (to protect against another multi-country ground attack by Arab states), but that Iran can't have nukes, is dangerous cow-poop-quality argumentation.

equally armed sides where even only 1 side hates the other enough to attack it (sneakily or openly), result in long awful wars.
on the other hand, a free-press democracy that has in *all* aspects the best military capability of the world, can be a good cop force for the world, but only if the less evolved warring politically-ambitious groups/countries have significantly less military capability.
so we'll be keeping that that way as well.

but we'll be much more careful in the future, about implementing sanctions in ways that will increasingly surely not hurt the innocents living in the countries that must undergo pressure by the west. the same will be true for our future military strikes.

we are not stupid enough to feed you new recruits and actively work towards endless war.
we like peace, and we like to keep our wars short.


IRAN-DEAL

we'll have to wait until the statements by the US, EU, Russia and of course Iran itself, plus the commentaries flowing into the major newspapers of those countries, have all had a chance to hit the web.
starting May 12, the deadline for the old Iran nuclear deal to be extended by the US, i'll report on this forum in more detail.

i'll follow a similar protocol for the upcoming North-Korea - USA summit.

in both cases, i may wait a few days before commenting. i'd like to hear the opinions from around the world about what was said in each of these negotiations, first. and then i may need about 10 to 48 hours to form my own opinion and post it here.

but if things get out of hand, i'm going to step in and post my own opinions as i form them, and will be emailing them around to news organisations and governments. this has proven effective in the past. to remain modest, i won't go into details about which wars i've postponed indefinitely so far.

IRAN-SYRIA-RUSSIA deal

i can imagine both Iran and Russia wanting each a naval and air base in Syria as part of their deals with Assad.
if Assad and Russia and Iran can agree to truly cooperate to the max when it comes to the re-location of the surviving moderate opposition of Syria (the EU would need to take in more than a few Syrian refugees too in that case) and grant them decent standards of living too,

then Syria is fixed.

Israel can be easily protected, and neither the Russians' nor the Iranians' bases in Syria will pose a serious threat to regional or global stability.
I'll give Trump a few more days to clarify why he said yesterday at the oval office breefing together with Macron from France, that the US would not allow Iranian military bases in Syria. if he can't give very good reasons, i'm going to pressure the USA to opt for the honerable retreat strategy.
ending the suffering, the return of stability, the rebuilding of residential areas, *that's winning the war*.
if you have to do it by shifting your own defense plans for Israel and the Mediterranean Sea, then so be it.
ffs, we already have the hardware for it.

{this message will be forwarded to the CIA to begin with}