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Iran lost its only airborne early-warning plane in an aerial collision above a big military parade in Tehran that showcased the country's growing ballistic missile arsenal.
The Tuesday collision left Iran's military without any electronic eyes in the sky at a time when Tehran fears Israel plans to launch a pre-emptive strike against the Islamic Republic's nuclear program.
But according to Strategic Forecasting, a private intelligence and security consultancy based in Austin, Texas, the loss of the Iranian Airborne Warning and Control System aircraft, known as AWACS, is probably not as dramatic as it may seem.
The AWACS, a dilapidated Soviet-era Ilyushin that once belonged to Saddam Hussein's air force, collided with one of two U.S-built F-5E fighters escorting it. Neither aircraft radioed a mayday so the incident was likely over in a few seconds.
According to reports, both planes crashed in flames. The F-5's two-man crew ejected, but all seven crewmen aboard the AWACS apparently perished.
The aircraft, a modified Il-76 transport (NATO designation "Candid"), is believed to have carried electronic equipment that was in all probability outdated and thus of limited military effectiveness or value.
The jet known in Iran as the Simogh, a fabled flying creature which performs wonders in the air was one of three modified by the Iraqi air force during the 1980-88 war with Iran and was known as the "Adnan."
One was destroyed by in an Allied air strike in the Desert Storm war of 1991. Two, including the one lost Tuesday, were among dozens of Iraqi aircraft flown to Iran toward the end of the conflict, apparently for safekeeping.
After the conflict, Tehran refused to return the aircraft and absorbed many, including the AWACS, into its own air force. The second Iranian AWACS apparently became non-operational several years ago.
The Iranian air force has lost several aircraft, including two transports, in the last few years, and these have been attributed to poor maintenance, lack of spares because of a U.S.-led arms embargo and poor training.
One AWACS aircraft cannot provide round-the-clock early warning coverage, so the Ilyushin's value was extremely limited.
Stratfor noted that even if the AWACS had been integrated into Iran's air defense network, which analysts say has many shortcomings, "it would not have provided Iran with much of a leg up. Iran's central defense strategy does not rely on its air force. Knowing all too well where its qualitative disadvantages lie, Iran focuses on asymmetric challenges to conventional military power.
"Put simply: Even if the lost aircraft was Iran's only AWACs, the status of Iran's security remains unchanged."
The Tuesday collision left Iran's military without any electronic eyes in the sky at a time when Tehran fears Israel plans to launch a pre-emptive strike against the Islamic Republic's nuclear program.
But according to Strategic Forecasting, a private intelligence and security consultancy based in Austin, Texas, the loss of the Iranian Airborne Warning and Control System aircraft, known as AWACS, is probably not as dramatic as it may seem.
The AWACS, a dilapidated Soviet-era Ilyushin that once belonged to Saddam Hussein's air force, collided with one of two U.S-built F-5E fighters escorting it. Neither aircraft radioed a mayday so the incident was likely over in a few seconds.
According to reports, both planes crashed in flames. The F-5's two-man crew ejected, but all seven crewmen aboard the AWACS apparently perished.
The aircraft, a modified Il-76 transport (NATO designation "Candid"), is believed to have carried electronic equipment that was in all probability outdated and thus of limited military effectiveness or value.
The jet known in Iran as the Simogh, a fabled flying creature which performs wonders in the air was one of three modified by the Iraqi air force during the 1980-88 war with Iran and was known as the "Adnan."
One was destroyed by in an Allied air strike in the Desert Storm war of 1991. Two, including the one lost Tuesday, were among dozens of Iraqi aircraft flown to Iran toward the end of the conflict, apparently for safekeeping.
After the conflict, Tehran refused to return the aircraft and absorbed many, including the AWACS, into its own air force. The second Iranian AWACS apparently became non-operational several years ago.
The Iranian air force has lost several aircraft, including two transports, in the last few years, and these have been attributed to poor maintenance, lack of spares because of a U.S.-led arms embargo and poor training.
One AWACS aircraft cannot provide round-the-clock early warning coverage, so the Ilyushin's value was extremely limited.
Stratfor noted that even if the AWACS had been integrated into Iran's air defense network, which analysts say has many shortcomings, "it would not have provided Iran with much of a leg up. Iran's central defense strategy does not rely on its air force. Knowing all too well where its qualitative disadvantages lie, Iran focuses on asymmetric challenges to conventional military power.
"Put simply: Even if the lost aircraft was Iran's only AWACs, the status of Iran's security remains unchanged."