Interesting Analysis of the Doklam Standoff

[Bearbearbot]

I found an interesting analysis of the Doklam standoff. Read and discuss...
https:??imbdetective.blogspot.my?2017?09?the-doklam-standoff.html
(Substitute all the ? with / for the link to work...can't post a proper link yet cause I'm new)

 

[Realtalk108]

Well it's possible and if one considers the official reports from the foreign ministry of both countries, it looks like India blinked. But can't be sure.

 

[Bearbearbot]

Let's see if the prediction in the analysis will come true....that Bhutan and China will establish diplomatic relations and resolve their boundary dispute.

 

[sinait]

I found an interesting analysis of the Doklam standoff. Read and discuss...
https:??imbdetective.blogspot.my?2017?09?the-doklam-standoff.html
(Substitute all the ? with / for the link to work...can't post a proper link yet cause I'm new)

https://imbdetective.blogspot.sg/2017/09/the-doklam-standoff.html
The Chinese, while willing to give India time to react to their moves, have demonstrated that they are ready to go to war. The location of incursion chosen by the Chinese is far away from Bhutan, in the Indo Chinese border near Pakistan. This area, with better terrain, allows the Chinese to quickly move their armor divisions into India. From there, they can escalate in all directions, and a short distance from New Delhi. If they move east, they will quickly cut off supply for the 200,000 men army in Eastern India. They could even use the Indian transportation system, like roads and rail, to supply their attack. While India has spent a great deal of money on their military, they are no match for the Chinese. China would quickly (within days) control the airspace with their formidable ground to air missiles and better and more numerous fighter jets. Without air cover, Indian ground troops would quickly disintegrate. Apparently, I am not the only one with this view.
If you look at my time line, you will see that around Aug. 24th, the Chinese took a big step in military escalation and was ready to invade India. The next step would be a public count down. At that point, China may demand more than the pull back of troops by India. For example, China may demand that India get out of East India, which China also claims. This would dramatically raise the price for the Indian retreat and increase the humiliation. The U.S., before invading Iraq, made similar unreasonable demands on Saddam knowing full well that he cannot possibly comply. I believe this is the reason for the hasty retreat by Modi.

At the end, the Chinese achieve all their objectives. Even if the Chinese were to continue their road building (which I am certain that they will next year when the weather gets better), India would not dare return to the Doklam area again(or make any similar moves). No military occupation of Bhutan took place. Not a single country sided with India. Judging from all the financial deals that happened near the end of the standoff, both Bhutan and Nepal have already moved away from the grasp of India and closer to China, precisely the event that India was trying to prevent by initiating this incident. They did this without firing a single shot at India. In contrast, the Indian side seems to be reacting to the Chinese moves after China went on the offensive. It seems they were looking for a way out but were not able to find it. This speak badly of the Indian leadership, which didn't think through all the scenarios when they initiated this incident.
.

 

[terranMarine]

Chronology

First, let me layout the sequence of events as best I can gather them.

• June 4 or earlier, China notified India that they will be expanding a road in Doklam (This was claimed by the Chinese authorities. The Indian side did not refute this. In fact, during the dispute, one Indian official sidestepped the question when asked if the Chinese provided advance notice for the road building).
• June 9, The Chinese again notified India of their intention to expand the existing road.
• June 16, Chinese road construction crew started working on road in Doklam.
• June 18, Indian troops, carrying weapons, armed with two bulldozers, crossed the Indian Chinese border and stopped the construction. Citing concern for the strategically vulnerable area of the chicken's neck.
• June 29, Bhutan protested to China about the construction of the road on disputed territory.
• June 30, Indian minister external affairs stated that by extending the road, China has changed the status quo in violation of a 2012 understanding.
• June 30, in answer regarding Bhutan's protest, China spokesman stated that the area of the road construction is totally under Chinese jurisdiction and ask India to withdraw its troops.
• July 5, China said they reached an understanding with Bhutan and there is no dispute with Bhutan about the territory.
• July 19, China again ask India to withdraw its troops. China also held live fire drill in Tibet.
• July 21, Sushma Swaraj, Indian External Affairs Minister, proposed that both sides withdraw their troops. She also stated that the world is with us on this. When asked which country, she named U.S., Japan and Australia.
• July 25, U.S. State Department said they should seek ways to resolve this peacefully, but did not side with either country. Similar statements were made by Nepal and Bhutan.
• July 27, Ajit Doval, India's National Security Advicer, attended a much anticipated BRICS meeting in China but failed to produce any diplomatic breakthrough.
• Aug 8, China officially rejected the proposal by Sushma Swaraj for mutual withdrawal and stated that the time for peaceful resolution is running out, that China's position is India must unilaterally withdraw from the area as a pre-condition for any negotiation. There has almost been daily tirades by the Chinese with the same message from this point on.
• Aug. 9, Chinese trains were spotted transporting military equipment to Tibet, where an armed incursion into India is expected to be launched.
• Aug. 15, Chinese and Indian troops clashed near Pangong lake. They fought with sticks and stones. Several injured from both sides.
• Aug. 16, China signed deals with Nepal for gas exploration.
• Aug. 24, Chinese missiles were spotted heading to the Tibet region.
• Aug. 24, China issue travel warning to Chinese going to India.
• Aug, 24, China was said to have signed $10 billion package with Bhutan.
• Aug. 24, Large Chinese military convoys were spotted heading to Tibet.
• Aug. 25, Chinese Navy held live fire drills off Indian Ocean.
• Aug. 28, India announced that China and India has mutually agreed to disengage and the Indian troops are in a process of moving out of the area. The Chinese confirmed that the Indian troops and equipment have already moved out, but countered that only the Indian troops have moved back to their side. The Chinese troops have not pulled out and are still patrolling the area. When asked if they will continue to build roads in the area, the Chinese side stated they are "taking into account various factors like weather, we will make proper building plans in light of actual situation".
• Aug. 30, Indian Defense Minister Arun Jeitley, when asked if Modi won in the standoff against China, said, "Given the sensitivity of the issue, there is no need to make multiple statements,". He also announce the government's decision to carry out major reforms in the Army to enhance its combat capability, but said that this is unrelated to Doklam.

You have gotta be really blind or stupid if you honestly believe China was the one who made concessions or lacking any balls. We were preparing for war with India, that much is very clear to the Indian military top brass. That's the only explanation why India suddenly unilaterally withdrew (talking about lack of balls).

India trying to seek international support ended up with zero. A war with China would have absolutely crippled the Indian economy.

 

[Han Patriot]

Chronology

First, let me layout the sequence of events as best I can gather them.

• June 4 or earlier, China notified India that they will be expanding a road in Doklam (This was claimed by the Chinese authorities. The Indian side did not refute this. In fact, during the dispute, one Indian official sidestepped the question when asked if the Chinese provided advance notice for the road building).
• June 9, The Chinese again notified India of their intention to expand the existing road.
• June 16, Chinese road construction crew started working on road in Doklam.
• June 18, Indian troops, carrying weapons, armed with two bulldozers, crossed the Indian Chinese border and stopped the construction. Citing concern for the strategically vulnerable area of the chicken's neck.
• June 29, Bhutan protested to China about the construction of the road on disputed territory.
• June 30, Indian minister external affairs stated that by extending the road, China has changed the status quo in violation of a 2012 understanding.
• June 30, in answer regarding Bhutan's protest, China spokesman stated that the area of the road construction is totally under Chinese jurisdiction and ask India to withdraw its troops.
• July 5, China said they reached an understanding with Bhutan and there is no dispute with Bhutan about the territory.
• July 19, China again ask India to withdraw its troops. China also held live fire drill in Tibet.
• July 21, Sushma Swaraj, Indian External Affairs Minister, proposed that both sides withdraw their troops. She also stated that the world is with us on this. When asked which country, she named U.S., Japan and Australia.
• July 25, U.S. State Department said they should seek ways to resolve this peacefully, but did not side with either country. Similar statements were made by Nepal and Bhutan.
• July 27, Ajit Doval, India's National Security Advicer, attended a much anticipated BRICS meeting in China but failed to produce any diplomatic breakthrough.
• Aug 8, China officially rejected the proposal by Sushma Swaraj for mutual withdrawal and stated that the time for peaceful resolution is running out, that China's position is India must unilaterally withdraw from the area as a pre-condition for any negotiation. There has almost been daily tirades by the Chinese with the same message from this point on.
• Aug. 9, Chinese trains were spotted transporting military equipment to Tibet, where an armed incursion into India is expected to be launched.
• Aug. 15, Chinese and Indian troops clashed near Pangong lake. They fought with sticks and stones. Several injured from both sides.
• Aug. 16, China signed deals with Nepal for gas exploration.
• Aug. 24, Chinese missiles were spotted heading to the Tibet region.
• Aug. 24, China issue travel warning to Chinese going to India.
• Aug, 24, China was said to have signed $10 billion package with Bhutan.
• Aug. 24, Large Chinese military convoys were spotted heading to Tibet.
• Aug. 25, Chinese Navy held live fire drills off Indian Ocean.
• Aug. 28, India announced that China and India has mutually agreed to disengage and the Indian troops are in a process of moving out of the area. The Chinese confirmed that the Indian troops and equipment have already moved out, but countered that only the Indian troops have moved back to their side. The Chinese troops have not pulled out and are still patrolling the area. When asked if they will continue to build roads in the area, the Chinese side stated they are "taking into account various factors like weather, we will make proper building plans in light of actual situation".
• Aug. 30, Indian Defense Minister Arun Jeitley, when asked if Modi won in the standoff against China, said, "Given the sensitivity of the issue, there is no need to make multiple statements,". He also announce the government's decision to carry out major reforms in the Army to enhance its combat capability, but said that this is unrelated to Doklam.

You have gotta be really blind or stupid if you honestly believe China was the one who made concessions or lacking any balls. We were preparing for war with India, that much is very clear to the Indian military top brass. That's the only explanation why India suddenly unilaterally withdrew (talking about lack of balls).

India trying to seek international support ended up with zero. A war with China would have absolutely crippled the Indian economy.

I think most Indians know this was what happened. You and I and the world know the better. I believe Bhutan is ready to engage with China after this incident, they will give up Doklam and take up Chinese offer of the two northern territory in exchange. We will fund and connect our railways and roads with them and buy their hydro power. This is just the beginning.

 

[qwerrty]

wrong!.. it was the flying kicked in the back that ended the standoff.

 

[AndrewJin]

Incredible India (笨強啊三)

They have ZERO vision of geopolitics.....
Never think about long-term interests....

 

[Suriya]

Doklam: PLA gen snubs hawks baying for India’s blood

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/dokl...-baying-for-indias-blood.517803/#post-9862881

 

[ito]

Chinese seem not come out of the Doklam yet. The supposed supa pawa China ran rather than confront.

 

[Bearbearbot]

Doklam: PLA gen snubs hawks baying for India’s blood

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/dokl...-baying-for-indias-blood.517803/#post-9862881

The PLA general in fact agrees with the gist of this analysis....that is 'war is the last resort and it's better to try to achieve your objectives without going to war'

China did brilliantly in this case by incrementally increasing the pressure on India but always gave India enough space and time to back down which India eventually did.

 

[Suriya]

I think most Indians know this was what happened. You and I and the world know the better. I believe Bhutan is ready to engage with China after this incident, they will give up Doklam and take up Chinese offer of the two northern territory in exchange. We will fund and connect our railways and roads with them and buy their hydro power. This is just the beginning.

The PLA general in fact agrees with the gist of this analysis....that is 'war is the last resort and it's better to try to achieve your objectives without going to war'

China did brilliantly in this case by incrementally increasing the pressure on India but always gave India enough space and time to back down which India eventually did.

Read carefully what Serving Chinese Major Gen says about the road construction at Doklam which was India's prime objection and shut your freaking pie holes .

Many people would say that the road construction in China's territory was none of India's business. Is this belief right? It is reasonable to some extent because road construction in this area is not a matter of right and wrong, but we need to understand that it is not always right to do something right at any time. Only doing the right thing at the right time is correct.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1066076.shtml

 

[faithfulguy]

Read carefully what Serving Chinese Major Gen says about the road construction at Doklam which was India's prime objection and shut your freaking pie holes .


http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1066076.shtml

India did not lose this confrontation. It's a win-win scenario. China will created diplomatic relationship with Bhutan. Resolve border issues with it and bring further peace to South Asia. The question is if India is willing to have peace by letting go of Kashmir?

 

[sputnik]

I found an interesting analysis of the Doklam standoff. Read and discuss...
https:??imbdetective.blogspot.my?2017?09?the-doklam-standoff.html
(Substitute all the ? with / for the link to work...can't post a proper link yet cause I'm new)

After reading about Chinese missiles spotting , I stopped reading. this blog is filled with avalanche of shit.

In Chronology, it is not mentioning IA get letter from PLA regarding start of road construction. dates were well mentioned in advance in that letter. IA intentionally chooses to remain silent and later on, IA threshed everything in front of PLA officers.

There is nothing much to read in such blog posts etc. already Chinese Joint Chief of staff is removed by Chinese Leadership. that itself speaks volume PLA got face palm from this episode as well as from there own leadership.

 

[Suriya]

Wrong!... India won because they have this guy on their side... China better be scared...

Tere liye Modi Uncle ka Gift !