RI stable amid global financial
shocks: Moody’s
Prima Wirayani, The Jakarta Post | Business | Fri, December 04 2015, 5:39 PM
Indonesia has sufficient capacity to cushion the impact of financial turbulence resulting from the looming rise in the Federal Reserve interest rate and the slowdown in China’s economy, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
Given the positive outlook and strong fiscal metrics, the international ratings agency has kept Indonesia’s sovereign credit Baa3.
“We see basically a stalling [in the rating] instead of an improvement that we saw prior to 2012,” said Moody’s vice president and senior analyst Christian de Guzman on Thursday.
Data from Moody’s shows that Indonesia’s sovereign credit has stalled at Baa3 since 2012. The upward trajectory of the rating between 2009, in which the country was rated Ba3, and 2012, paused due to Indonesia’s slowing growth rate and trade data, the report read.
The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) announced in early November that Indonesia’s year-on-year (yoy) GDP growth stood at 4.73 percent for the July-September period, a slight increase from the 4.67 percent posted in the second quarter and the 4.72 percent recorded in the first three months of the year.
The third quarter’s figure was below market consensus and estimates by the government and Bank Indonesia (BI), which mostly placed the growth range at 4.8 to 4.85 percent.
Moody’s predicts that Southeast Asia’s largest economy will expand by 4.7 percent this year, lower than the government’s target of 5 percent.
The growth rate, though lower than the government’s target, remains comparatively high compared to other emerging markets.
The agency attributed the country’s resilience to its large foreign exchange reserves.
However, Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves have fallen 10 percent to US$100.7 billion this year through to October, according to Bloomberg data.
To bolster its foreign exchange reserves and to “prefund” next year’s state budget, the government on Wednesday issued US dollar denominated bonds worth $3.5 billion. Indonesia last sold dollar bonds in January worth $4 billion.
Christian said the prefund was merely the government’s effort to secure funding to prevent uncertainties in regards to the Fed’s potential rate raise in mid December.
“We see this as a prudent measure,” he said.
However, Moody’s warned that Indonesia’s reliance on external debts and portfolios could increase its vulnerability to adverse global shocks. It noted that the country’s external vulnerability index (EVI), predicted to stand near 80 percent by this end of this year, was the highest among its ASEAN peers.
Moody’s EVI takes into account short-term external debts, currently maturing long-term debts and non-resident deposits over one year as a share of foreign exchange reserves and expresses these variables as a percentage.
The agency advised that external financing should be largely met by foreign direct investment into the country.
The government currently tries to attract foreign investment into the country by offering tax incentives, reducing bureaucratic red tape and ensuring measured workers’ wages hikes.
The efforts seem to be working. The Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) recorded Rp 400 trillion in investment as of September, a 16.7 percent increase from last year’s Rp 342 trillion and a more than a 75 percent increase from this year’s target of Rp 519.5 trillion.
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RI stable amid global financial shocks: Moody’s | The Jakarta Post
Papua expects rapid investment
growth
Ayomi Amindoni, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | National | Fri, December 04 2015, 9:36 PM
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Papua expects rapid investment growth | The Jakarta Post
Investment to the country’s easternmost province is increasing at a rapid pace, as Papua’s provincial government expects both domestic and foreign direct investment (FDI) to grow stronger in 2016.
Increasing investment from within and outside of Indonesia was fostering economic development and helping small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Papua, said Muhammad Musaad, the head of Papua’s Regional Development Planning Board (Bappeda).
The increase in investment had significantly reduced unemployment, open up business opportunities and increased people's income, Musaad explained, adding that the realization of investment in Papua reached US$ 41.13 billion of FDI and Rp 33.32 trillion of domestic direct investment in 2014.
In the first half of 2015, Papua’s economy grew by 7.26 percent from the same period last year. "This figure exceeds the average national growth," Musaad pointed out. The unemployment rate in Papua stood at 3.7 percent of the total workforce as of February 2015, far below the national average rate of 5.8 percent.
"We expect investment to grow by 20 to 25 percent next year," Musaad said in Jakarta on Friday at an event called “Papua Investment Year 2016”.
He added that the province’s macro-economic conditions were very supportive for turning Papua into a center of industrial growth and investment.
In terms of natural resources, Musaad added, Papua had various potential resources, including mining, forestry and tourism. These were the biggest contributors to income in Papua, he said.
Meanwhile, agriculture, fisheries and the plantation sector had not been fully developed, the official acknowledged, despite the fact that Papua had vast land and sea territories.
To ensure continued progress on investment, Papua’s provincial government introduced several key policies, including designating and offering extra support for five centers of economic development, namely Mamta, Saereri, Mee Pago, La Pago and Anim Ha.
"In line with [this policy], the provincial government has proposed special economic zones (KEK) to the central government, which has responded by preparing a food-industry based KEK in Merauke and a mining-based KEK in Mimika," he said, adding that to improve the business climate, the local administration had established a unified licensing and investment body.
The Papuan government has decided to develop specific commodities in certain areas. Canning, fisheries and tourism will be developed in Saereri, Cendrawasih Bay. The palm oil, coconut, chocolate and tourism industries will be developed in Mamta, North Mainland. Sago, coffee, sweet potatoes and tourism will be developed in Mee Pago in the West Central Mountains, while La Pago in the East Central Mountains will develop coffee, red fruit, sweet potatoes, horticulture, livestock and tourism as its key drivers of economic development. Meanwhile, Anim Ha, South Mainland, will develop rice, sugarcane, oil palm, rubber, fisheries and livestock industries.
The provincial government also encourages community and village-based economic development through SMEs. "We have declared 2016 the Papua investment year. We believe Papua is a prospective place to invest in," Musaad said. (bbn)
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Papua expects rapid investment growth | The Jakarta Post