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Indonesia's Islamic State-affiliated militant group more likely to attack security forces and entertainment targets outside Jakarta
Anton Alifandi - IHS Jane's Intelligence Review
30 November 2015
Police on patrol near a suspected terrorist hideout outside Jakarta in 2014. Indonesia's most active terrorist organisation, MIT, has threatened attacks on targets across the country. Source: PA
Key Points
- Indonesia's most wanted terrorist, Santoso, on 22 November posted a video threatening to attack the presidential palace and the Jakarta police headquarters.
- There is no indication that Santoso's group has the capacity to carry out attacks in the capital, especially against well-protected state targets.
- However, the threat indicates an increased risk of attacks on hotels and clubs, involving small arms and crude improvised explosive devices (IEDs), in other cities such as Surabaya, Solo, and Makassar, as well as MIT's base in Central Sulawesi.
EVENT
Indonesia's most active terrorist organisation, the Mujahideen of Eastern Indonesia (Mujahidin Indonesia Timur; MIT), has threatened attacks on targets across the country.
In a nine-minute video uploaded on Facebook on 22 November, Santoso (also known as Abu Wardah) threatened to attack the Jakarta police headquarters and fly the black flag of the Islamic State at the presidential palace. Santoso heads MIT, Indonesia's most active terrorist group based in the mountainous jungle of Poso, in Central Sulawesi. The police strongly suspect that MIT was behind the killing of an army soldier in Poso who was shot dead while on patrol on 29 November. The army and the police have been conducting operations in Poso and the neighbouring district of Parigi Moutong to destroy MIT since May. The operation has led to the arrest of several MIT members and the killing of a leading member of the group, Daeng Koro, in an exchange of fire with police in Parigi Moutong in April. An IHS security source says the group currently has around 60 active members.
The video threat is significant because of MIT's intent to carry out attacks in the capital, hundreds of kilometres from Poso. The timing of the video upload, nine days after the Paris attacks, provided the group with widespread media exposure. However, a stronger tactical motivation for MIT is probably to strike back against security operations which have restricted its movement.
Indonesia's Islamic State-affiliated militant group more likely to attack security forces and entertainment targets outside Jakarta | IHS Jane's 360