prima99
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Anonymous, over the last two days, has made some very interesting comments on these Indonesia-Russia negotiations:
"Indonesia's extravagant wish to buy 10 Russian Kilos was, as far as I can tell, driven by its Defence Minister [General (Ret.) Ryamizard Ryacudu] who seems to be a pretty hardcore Russophile. Cooler-headed Indonesian observers I talked with says that Indonesia may buy two Improved Kilo, but there is nothing concrete about that and it might be zero given the current Indonesian economic weakness.
ROFL russophile? it's like telling us to get a more expensive USA stuff only to be embargo-ed some times later. Russia is the best choice for any nation interested to develop their military, period.
The $3 billion in the RBTH article matches what Indonesian sources said, so that part seems correct.
Indonesian military officials and politicians, egged by Russia, have often stated that they are going to buy this or that from Russia without consideration on what they're going to use it for or how they are going to pay for it.
oblivious much of an easily escalated SCS conflict.
There is a small but vocal Russophile faction, but most of the time the sane majority prevails and those statements were quietly ignored. However, once in a while they do throw a bone at the Russophiles to placate and retain their political support.
I rate the Su-35 procurement as likely, and the 5 Amur submarine procurement as unlikely. A half-half compromise of 8 Su-35 and 2 Amur is also possible. Militarily that is nuts, but hey, thats politics. Getting both is financially impossible and irresponsible. Even Russian credit doesn't stretch that far.
nope it's not nuts. defense should be prioritized over anything else, period. by the time a war happened and we are too weak for ourselves, that's the end of it.
Russia also makes lots of noise about selling nuclear power plants to Indonesia. This is actually pretty plausible. Despite the Ring of Fire [earthquake-volcano zone] location, the physics of plate tectonics actually means that there are several geologically stable spots in Indonesia. Some of these spots are sufficiently inland or sheltered to be safe from tsunamis.
should've said that to Japan. they have earthquakes like, everyday? we are nothing when compared to Japan. just because there are volcanoes around does not mean that we will be on the same geographical level as Japan.
Whether Indonesia will build utility scale nuclear power plants and who gets the contract remains to be seen though. I am quite certain that Indonesia will build them eventually though. Indonesia will run out of natural gas within 20 years and of coal within 50 years and despite all the talk about renewables, the actual growth rate of renewable energy use in Indonesia is not enough. However, in the near term, the only confirmed plan to build a nuclear reactor in Indonesia is the 30 MW experimental reactor in Serpong to replace the 30 year old experimental reactor of similar rating (used to make medical isotopes and breeding new rice variants, among other things, but not actually connected to the power grid) that is reaching its end of service life. Russia is likely to get this project, but this is still far far away from an actual nuclear power plant.
Russian media has this habit of talking big, but the actual realization is often much smaller and more uncertain than they make it to be."
Pete
it's not just Russia that we are partnering with for the Nuclear deal. everyone will get their fair share. that's how serious we are regarding the nuclear proposal.
National scene: RI welcomes results of Iran nuclear deal | The Jakarta Post
Indonesia establishes nuclear cooperation with France - ANTARA News
Russia-Indonesia Partnership to Build Future of Indonesian Nuclear Sector | Jakarta Globe
Japan, Indonesia team up on HTGR development