Indonesia Defence Forum

[Indos]

 

[Indos]

LSI has released his recent report. I put it here because it is important to see future Indonesian defense acquisition program.

Anies Baswedan's Electability Rises, LSI Director: 40% of Prabowo Voters Switch​

Story from Theophilus Ifan Sucipto•Yesterday

Jakarta: Executive Director of the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) Djayadi Hanan analyzed the increasing electability of nasdem party presidential candidate Anies Baswedan. Anies' electability even shifted PrabowoSubianto's position.

"Prabowo's voters still have the majority of Prabowo but maybe around 40 percent have (switched to Anies)," said Djayadi at the MGN Complex, West Jakarta, Wednesday, November 30, 2022.

Djayadi said during 2014-2019 Anies was considered one camp with Prabowo. So the people who voted fo rAnies were many of Prabowo's voters in 2019.

"Prabowo's (electability) tends to stagnate because his popularity has been pegged and his voice has been taken by Anies a lot," he said.

Djayadi could not predict whether Prabowo's voter migration to Anies would continue until 2024. It depends on Prabowo's response to the phenomenon.

Also how Anies' efforts increase popularity and closeness to the community," he said.

In addition, Djayadi said that Anies' electability soared because it was the first time he fought in the presidential election (pilpres). So the room to increase support is even greater.

"In terms of popularity, he (Anies) is still in the 80 percent range. With Anies active after becoming governor, his popularity level is getting higher," he explained.

Anies' electability increased by more than 23 percent. This is based on the Charta Politikasurvey.

"There is an increase (electability) in Mas Anies Baswedan from (survey) September 20.6 percent, now to 23.1 percent," said Charta Politika Executive Director Yunarto Wijaya in a survey release in Jakarta, Tuesday, November 29, 2022.

Yunarto said the increase in electability shifted Prabowo Subianto's position, which has now dropped to third place. Prabowo's electability reached 24.4 in the September 2022 survey but has now dropped to 22 percent.

"As a momentum, there was a 2.5 percent increase in the effect of the NasDem declaration or post-declaration and enough to overtake Mr. Prabowo," he said.

MSN

www.msn.com

Indikator, the most trusted survey company in Indonesia that I also have witnessed since I already follow politics since my younger age shows Anies is almost ahead of Ganjar. There is Anies euphoria I would say going on after he is endorsed publicly from Nasional Democrat Party (Nasdem). The other survey company where I have highly trust is LSI (Lembaga Survey Indonesia)

I would say possibly bright future for KF21/IFX program if Anies wins as there is Democrat party inside the coalition where the party is highly supportive on the program since the founder, SBY, is the one who initiate the program after South Korea asked Indonesia to join the program in 2009. Democrat party recent survey also shows good result as the most popular party under Anies Baswedan party coalition (Nasdem, Demokrat, PKS)

In term of acquisition, the program has already been backed by the law but his possible raising to power will likely make the financing on our financial obligation and the investment on the production facility will be much easier than current Jokowi administration.

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Indikator latest survey


The result in the simulation of three names, Ganjar Pranowo achieved 33.9 percent.

Followed by Anies Baswedan with 32.2 percent, who beat Prabowo Subianto by getting 23.9 percent.

In this survey, the total sample was 1,220 people, who came from all provinces who were proportionally distributed.

Assuming a simple random sampling method, the sample size of 1,220 respondents had a margin of error (MoE) of about 2.9 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

While the survey was conducted on October 30 - November 5, 2022.

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[Cromwell]

Old Cromwell has returned , where's everyone ?

 

[Indos]

Old Cromwell has returned , where's everyone ?

Nice to see you back, waiting your insider information to be posted here soon.....

Older member like @nufix and @Reashot Xigwin are always active in here by the way

 

[Cromwell]

Nice to see you back, waiting your insider information to be posted here soon.....

Older member like @nufix and @Reashot Xigwin are always active in here by the way

I'm not an insider though my other works often crosspath with defence related issue, i only share what i know.

It's a long term commitment we have signed years ago and there's no retreat from this. KF-21 Boramae for TNI-AU must go on, but how many exactly we are planning ? 3 Squadrons ( 50 units ) ? Well i'm satisfied enough if we can keep the commitment

 

[Indos]

I'm not an insider though my other works often crosspath with defence related issue, i only share what i know.

View attachment 902846
It's a long term commitment we have signed years ago and there's no retreat from this. KF-21 Boramae for TNI-AU must go on, but how many exactly we are planning ? 3 Squadrons ( 50 units ) ? Well i'm satisfied enough if we can keep the commitment

The minimum we should order is 48, but of course we can order many more like 100 or more for instant and those 100 planes will be built in Indonesian Aerospace. Just for information, Indonesia is not buying production license (in licensing there is maximum plane that we can produce in the country), but we are part of developer with 20 % stake and have been inside the program since the start of development with both engineers and financing as we all know. The same like CN 235, the different is that for CN235 our stake is greater at 50%.


17 billion USD excess Fund

I would say our country is now in transition period with focus more on the economy and infrastructure. Basically government has around 17 billion USD excess fund taken from this year and will be used for facing 2023 economic challenge and this is to make sure that our budget deficit will be less than 3 % of GDP as target. Any way our budget deficit until November this year has already been less than 1 % of GDP, AlhamduliLLAH.

Despite having that large available money, our Finance Minister doesnt just pay all our KF21/IFX program financial obligation because I see current administration as very economic centric and very discipline as KF21/IFX program is Defense Ministry program, so the payment should come from that particular ministry, regardless Finance Ministy has extra available money for this year and next year, although next year payment could be larger than 30 million USD if Finance Ministry is agree on that. If 2023 condition is also as robust as this year, I predict 2024 payment will likely be quite big.

Any way, this year is extra ordinary, I mean we would likely to see Indonesia trade surplus exceeding German trade surplus this year, as German is in the second position after China in last year surplus. In addition, economic institution like OECD, World Bank, and IMF have predicted Indonesia economy to be around 5 % next year.

2030 Defense Budget projection

By seeing on their estimate, it shows that Indonesia economy will likely accelerate further in term of its economic power relatives to other G20 countries except for India. Indonesian economy is supported by cheaper and more available energy, huge human power, huge market with domestic spending at around 52 % of GDP, and as soon as Jokowi administration is over, all of the infrastructure, EV ecosystem grand plan, and Omnibus Law full implementation, very possible political stability with more mature democratic system, will likely boost the economy further.

When KF21/IFX program starts its mass manufacturing phase in Indonesian Aerospace in 2027 or 2028 inshaAllah, then Indonesia nominal GDP is predicted to have already reached around 2 trillion USD, currently our economy is still at 1.2 trillion USD (2022 estimate). Our defense budget in 2030 will likely be doubled compared to current figure at 9.3 billion USD.

2030 GDP estimate based on latest update (October 2022)

 

[Indos]

 

[182]

Indonesian Air Force Dassault Falcon 7x
F-HJCP

Indonesian Air Force Dassault Falcon 8x
F-HSRI

 

[182]

CZECHOSLOVAK GROUP

@CSG_HOLDING
Poprvé v naší historii jsme získali zakázku na integraci systému protivzdušné obrany a komplet balistických raket.
Naše EXCALIBUR INTERNATIONAL získala tuto zakázku pro armádu v Indonésii. Cena obou projektů přesahuje 500 milionů eur.
11:32 PM · Dec 5, 2022

For the first time in our history, we won an order for the integration of an air defense system and a set of ballistic missiles.
Our EXCALIBUR INTERNATIONAL won this order for the army in Indonesia.
The price of both projects exceeds 500 million euros.

congrats

 

[Indos]

Indonesia Central Government will build 1600 houses for those Earthquake victims in Cianjur, West Java.

Jokowi visited Cianjur Yesterday

Saat Presiden Tinjau Pembangunan Rumah Tahan Gempa di Cianjur

 

[182]

PT PAL Indonesia Develops New Warship Products with Modern Technology

(Jakarta, 03 November 2022) After the success of product development from Fast Patrol Boat (FPB) to Fast Missile Boats (KCR), now PT PAL Indonesia as the lead integrator is collaborating with national shipyards PT Lundin in developing the newest warship, Light Attack Ship (KSR) type

Indonesian Minister of Defense Mr. Prabowo Subianto and Chief of Staff of the Navy Mr. Yudo Margono witnessed the signing of the collaboration between PT PAL Indonesia, Kongsberg, and PT Lundin

 

[182]

Navy News - PENGANUGERAHAN BREVET KEHORMATAN HIU KENCANA ​

 

[182]

PAL Appoints Yodya Karya to Manage PMN(State Equity Participation) Project Construction Management

Surabaya, 11 February 2022) PT PAL Indonesia continues to make various efforts to prepare for the construction of physical facilities for the Submarine Infrastructure Development project. The project was funded from the addition of State Equity Participation (PMN) which was received in 2021. Submarine Infrastructure Development aims to increase the capability of PAL from previously being able to carry out joint sections so that they can carry out whole local production in the country.

submarine hangar facilities from State Equity Participation(PMN) 2015

To ensure project implementation goes according to plan, PAL appointed PT Yodya Karya (Persero) to manage Construction Management.
Furthermore, from the appointment, a Construction Management contract was signed between PAL and Yodya Karya today. The event was attended by Director of PT Yodya Karya (Persero) along with other stakeholders. The signing of the contract was carried out by the PAL Management Transformation SEVP with the Director of PT Yodya Karya (Persero).

plan for adding submarine shiplift, Glassfiber Reinforced Plastic (GRP) Shop, Painting Shop, Blasting Shop, Torpedo Shop facilities through State Equity Participation(PMN) 2021

 

[Indos]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600114869340352514

 

[Indos]

Cutting Steel of 2 Arrowhead based design frigates by PT PAL Indonesia. Friday, 9 December 2022. Surabaya, East Java.