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Indo/Pak Strategic Balance to widen

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Storm Force

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Don,t know where this came from but Indians are claiming a
1.7$trillion GDP by 2012 AND $2 TRILLION by 2015. Growths rates of over 9% anticipated.

This is very rapid growth.

Indian economy moving closer to $ 2 trillion mark

The net consequences of huge GDP are massive to the current strategic balance.
 
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India has always in last 2 decades enjoyed a far bigger GDP and military budget over their neighbour,,,

Pakistans main counter to this has been they have more mouths to feed or we have nukes

But this huge escalation in growth will take the current gap OF 7-1 WAY ABOVE THE POPLULATION RATIOS...

to 10-1 and beyond..

The impact current Indian defense budget of $30 billion will almost certainly be $50 billon in 5 years times.

Just to put this in relative terms Pakistans current military budget is $6 billion per year. Its entire forex is $16 billion.

This will almost certainly give india massive leverage not just in military preparation but far more importantly massive political clout with USA Europe and even likes of Japan and maybe eve.n CHINA..

"WHETHER we admit this is or not real military and political clout is a powerful economy and very large GDP.

NATIONS with big nos $$$$ are treated differently to nations with smaller nos $$$$
 
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FROM pakistans point of veiw they are in the middle of a real mess with WOT and a never ending strategic stand off with their large neighbour.

A stand off whereby every single rupee, dime. dollar is being spent by their military on ensuring some sort of current status quo in the overall military balance.

YET as is typical with generals and armies the real strength of a nation is its industrial power and the successive regimes have massively neglected this to the point that Pakistan will find the military gap widening very quickly in the coming decade.

Just like USA won the cold war on shear economic power over Russia i forsee the same happening in South Asia. albeit in South Asian standards
 
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Yes, Indeed. And Pakistani Rulers know this fact and we all know this fact. You will not find any solution to any of the problems between India and Pakistan in teh next 5-7 years......there after these problems will disappear .......

Indian leaders just need to contain the Pakistani Nuisance for this period.
 
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ya u guys are right...i think this is the only solution left too Cool INDo-pak relations ...
we will increase our military budget ...indeed we are still spending a lot to counter china..also what is projected is not actual ...

I think soon Pakistan will also realize this and they will change there tactics and focus more on economic growth rather than....other nonse things..
 
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India is becoming the shining star of asia. It will grow stronger than china soon.
 
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India is becoming the shining star of asia. It will grow stronger than china soon.

I dont think so that it can surpass china in anywayz unless its problems be solved with its neighbors...:woot::lol:
the world big playerz cannot see India as growing prosperous and strong cuz they have to go down then
:pakistan::pdf:
 
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Yes but there are over a billion people to feed, even if india grows 9% for the next hundred years, her population per capita would still be amongst the poorest nations on earth, the reason is her growing population.

China has been able to control her population through, pretty drastic measures, whereas india has not. Every year millions of people come into the labour market, india has to grow 20% a year to be able to keep those people gainfully employed.

If not, the growing have nots will join the Maoist Naxalite movement, which control 40% of india, where her police and para-military are gunned down, and where the Naxalites have virtually their own state.
 
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Some of india's development readings are pretty horrific, in terms of calorie consumption india is behind sub-saharan Africa.

Plus for all india's much reported and vaunted growth record, the amount of absolute poverty has not reduced by a significant amount at all.

In fact due to subsidies and other measures being withdrawn the poorest in india are being hit particularly hard, poverty is actually increasing according to leading poverty advocates, the film slumdog millionaire shows a tiny part of this huge poverty.
 
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Yes but there are over a billion people to feed, even if india grows 9% for the next hundred years, her population per capita would still be amongst the poorest nations on earth, the reason is her growing population.

China has been able to control her population through, pretty drastic measures, whereas india has not. Every year millions of people come into the labour market, india has to grow 20% a year to be able to keep those people gainfully employed.

If not, the growing have nots will join the Maoist Naxalite movement, which control 40% of india, where her police and para-military are gunned down, and where the Naxalites have virtually their own state.

wow, you're pretty close to the facts by sheer chance. it will take india around 100 years @ 9% p.a. to reach today's first world standards. scary.

the only thing you didn't notice is that you're not going to get there even in a 100 years at 9% per annum because your population grows even faster than ours.
 
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India is becoming the shining star of asia. It will grow stronger than china soon.

India is currently the shinning star of South Asia.:yahoo:

We may grow stronger than China mostly in the future,say about 2030-2050. :)
 
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India is becoming the shining star of asia. It will grow stronger than china soon.

thats not going to happen. china is going to open the gap even wider for the foreseeable future.

only when they hit an economic planning bottleneck somewhere will we have a chance of catching up.
 
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Don,t know where this came from but Indians are claiming a
1.7$trillion GDP by 2012 AND $2 TRILLION by 2015. Growths rates of over 9% anticipated.

This is very rapid growth.

Indian economy moving closer to $ 2 trillion mark

The net consequences of huge GDP are massive to the current strategic balance.

these are not some random projections claimed by indian's in general, but comes from a very creditable source - Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC).

indian economy today stands at rs61,32,171 crores (crore=rs1,00,00,000, exchange rate: 1us dollar=rs46) and when the same is converted to us dollars, indian economy stands at $1.33trillion.

nominal gdp (which is what is spoken here) gets calculated on
1 real growth rate achieved,
2 inflation rate and
3 if it is being converted to someother currency, like the us $, then the prevailing exchange rate.

real growth rate: india hopes to achieve double digit growth rate figures very soon, infact it could very well happen this very fiscal. projection for next 5 year - 8%-10%, i will take the average as 9%.

inflation rate: 5%

exchange rate : rs45/us $ (rupee will further strengthen with more cash inflows from sources like remittance, fdi, fii, venture capital, money raised by india companies overseas and then put to use in india, loans/grants from world financial institutions, etc, which means one could see a repeat of 2006-07 when the rupee was trading at near rs40/us $, and if that rate was to be taken indian economy is already at $1.53trillion)

putting all these figures in perspective, the insight one gets is those projects are not off mark provided the above mentioned criteria if fulfilled, and with that as a backdrop you can be rest assured of india's gdp more that doubling from the 2trillion mark by the end of fiscal 2020, which means a very real possibility of over 4trillion.

per capita:

someone said it will take india 100 years to eradicate the poverty that is seen in india.

as per goldman sachs (on a conservative estimate) india's per capita income by 2050 should be 30,000 dollars from the present 1,000 dollars.

getting things a little more in perspective:

india's gini coefficient index is far-far better than that of china's (List of countries by income equality - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) which tells you the income disparity between the top 10%/20% from the rest of the population.

further digging into the per caipta and how the country has progressed and i am taking pakistan into the picture.

india's per capita income in 1993 was 54% of pakistan's, which means where on an average a pakistani earned 100dollars, in contrast an indian just earned 54dollars.
last year world bank put india at an advantage of over 14% over pakistan and they are yet to release just gone by fiscal's data. (pak - 981 dollars, india - 1122 dollars - size of economies - http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GDP.pdf and population - http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/POP.pdf)
going a little further, as i have mentioned before, goldman sachs puts india's per capita at 30,000 dollars by year 2050 but during the same period pakistan's per capita is projected at 7,000 dollars which means an indian will be earning if not more then certainly 4 times to a his pakistani counterpart.

about parity between indian and pak armed forces:

we in india would be more than happy if pakistan was to match us bullet for a bullet, man for a man, jet for a jet, and any and every thing that is possible in the realm of armed forces. we wish our friends in pakistan all the very best in this endeavor.
 
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