India’s revised China policy tactical adjustment, not strategic change

[LKJ86]

By Liu Zongyi Source:Global Times Published: 2018/4/18 19:53:41

The Doklam standoff between China and India last summer has set bilateral relations at a low ebb. The standoff has prompted the two countries to more seriously review each other and figure out each other's strategic intentions.

Since the end of last year, there have been frequent exchanges between high-level officials of both sides. In December, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and State Councilor Yang Jiechi visited India within half a month of each other. In February, Indian Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale visited China. External affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj will visit China later this week to participate in the foreign ministers meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) during which she will also hold talks with her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. Such exchanges between China and India indicate that bilateral ties are gradually warming.

There are three reasons why India has changed its China policy. First, given the series of diplomatic setbacks of the administration of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, debates are going on within the country about its foreign policies, the core of which is its China policy.

At regional and global levels, India has made unprecedented moves by getting closer to Western countries such as the US and Japan, which not only violates its non-alignment principle, but also worsens its ties with China and Russia.

As for the Indo-Pacific strategy, India is dissatisfied with the US definition of the strategy and disappointed with the strategy's lack of financial support. It has also noticed China's concern about the strategy. India has realized the huge gap between China and India and worries that China will take even tougher measures against India which may hinder India's domestic development.

Second, the most important task for Modi in the coming two years is the next general election. Regional stability and diplomatic achievements are vital for his reelection. Improving India's relations with China and Russia, and even bargaining with China over the Belt and Road initiative will garner diplomatic points for Modi.

On global and regional issues, India has to rely on China. Against the backdrop of the US' abandonment of multilateralism, opposition to free trade and breach of the global trade system, India hopes that it can cooperate with China on globalization and free trade and strengthen cooperation on climate change, the SCO and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

Last, India faces economic dilemmas. The Indian economy has become more closely connected with the global economy. Rising interest rates of the Federal Reserve and anti-deflationary measures of developed economies will obstruct India's currency and financial policies, affect the stability of the financial market and hinder the development of foreign trade.

India worries that it may be affected by the trade war launched by US President Donald Trump and his America First doctrine.

It is also concerned about global capital flowing back to the US. The Indian government lacks funds. New Delhi carried out a deficit financing policy to promote economic growth. The rising deficit has made the market worry about the financial condition of the Indian government.

With challenges from within and without, India's economic development will not be smooth. India has been expecting China's investment to help with its infrastructure. Some in India's strategic and economic circles hope that India can join the Belt and Road initiative and believe China's development is an opportunity for India. But the changes of India's China policy are only tactical, not strategic, as India's traditional hegemonic and Cold War mentality has not changed. The Modi government thinks that India should become a leading country rather than simply a balancer. India believes that China is India's geopolitical rival.

India has been striving to balance or even contain China's rise and pushing forward the so-called Indo-Pacific strategy with the US, Japan and Australia. It has always been unsettled about China's economic cooperation with the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Pakistan.

But India has changed its understanding of its strength gap with China. In the past few years, India had believed its hardline stance would propel China to compromise and it engaged with China by wooing the US. It also provoked China on the Taiwan and Tibet questions. Whether these diplomatic moves will change remains to be seen.

The warming of ties between China and India is out of the needs of both sides. In the short term, India hopes to have better relations with China so as to solve its domestic issues and develop its economy. In the long run, it wants to catch up with China in strength. China needs to watch India's words and deeds closely.

The author is a senior fellow of Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, a visiting fellow of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China and a distinguished fellow of the China (Kunming) South Asia & Southeast Asia Institute. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

source:http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1098606.shtml

 

[RudraMudra]

I am appalled by the lack of understanding by the chinese about the reality of India. Let me attempt to correct it so that chinese can get a better understanding of the reality of India, rather than "assume" things that just reinforces their existing prejudices.

By Liu Zongyi Source:Global Times Published: 2018/4/18 19:53:41

The Doklam standoff between China and India last summer has set bilateral relations at a low ebb. The standoff has prompted the two countries to more seriously review each other and figure out each other's strategic intentions.

Since the end of last year, there have been frequent exchanges between high-level officials of both sides. In December, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and State Councilor Yang Jiechi visited India within half a month of each other. In February, Indian Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale visited China. External affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj will visit China later this week to participate in the foreign ministers meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) during which she will also hold talks with her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. Such exchanges between China and India indicate that bilateral ties are gradually warming.

India desires better relationship with china. That is the fundamental thinking in India. We are neighbours, its as simple as that.

There are three reasons why India has changed its China policy. First, given the series of diplomatic setbacks of the administration of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, debates are going on within the country about its foreign policies, the core of which is its China policy.

At regional and global levels, India has made unprecedented moves by getting closer to Western countries such as the US and Japan, which not only violates its non-alignment principle, but also worsens its ties with China and Russia.

As for the Indo-Pacific strategy, India is dissatisfied with the US definition of the strategy and disappointed with the strategy's lack of financial support. It has also noticed China's concern about the strategy. India has realized the huge gap between China and India and worries that China will take even tougher measures against India which may hinder India's domestic development.

China is not in any position to take or make tougher measures against India. You do not have the capacity and we know that.

Our desire for better relations does not come from "fear" it comes from our "greed". China needs to understand this.

India almost NEVER does anything out of "fear". Our policy has ALWAYS been driven by "Hope / greed".

If china thinks India acts from "fear" it is making a fundamental mistake in understanding India. This is not bravado, this is just a statement of fact.

This kind of confirmation bias will only strengthen the wrong notions within china about India and will lead to worsening of ties with India. All because you attempted to see India through your coloured lense.

If you truly want to understand India, break free to your preconceived notions and prejudices. That is my honest advice.

Second, the most important task for Modi in the coming two years is the next general election. Regional stability and diplomatic achievements are vital for his reelection. Improving India's relations with China and Russia, and even bargaining with China over the Belt and Road initiative will garner diplomatic points for Modi.

This too is RUBBISH.

No one in India cares about India's relationship with china. Nobody is going to vote for Modi because he built better relationship with china.

China needs to understand that India suffers from "white worship", but even then the fact that US refused Visa to Modi only made Indians love Modi MORE. That made him a HERO in our eyes.

I do not grudge china for feeling self importance, but do not let such silly feelings could your understanding or judgement.

On global and regional issues, India has to rely on China. Against the backdrop of the US' abandonment of multilateralism, opposition to free trade and breach of the global trade system, India hopes that it can cooperate with China on globalization and free trade and strengthen cooperation on climate change, the SCO and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

THIS is True and is the REAL reason for India's overtunes to china.

We need china to balance our relationship with the rest of the world. Majority of who are either Xtians or Muslim Nations.

We need china to negotiate with global agencies. THIS is what we really want, and what china can deliver for us. THIS is the real negotiating point where mutually beneficial give and take can happen.

Last, India faces economic dilemmas. The Indian economy has become more closely connected with the global economy. Rising interest rates of the Federal Reserve and anti-deflationary measures of developed economies will obstruct India's currency and financial policies, affect the stability of the financial market and hinder the development of foreign trade.

India worries that it may be affected by the trade war launched by US President Donald Trump and his America First doctrine.

This is partially true, but India does not see china as a significant player who can effect Indian economy, our financial market or our currency stability.

We are worried about the Balance of trade with china and see this as an opportunity, rather than a threat. This just means we can negotiate to sell more things to china.

Trump has little to do with this. He is unreliable and so is china.

It is also concerned about global capital flowing back to the US. The Indian government lacks funds. New Delhi carried out a deficit financing policy to promote economic growth. The rising deficit has made the market worry about the financial condition of the Indian government.

Again, we are not particularly worried about this. India is going to be a natural destination for the global funds to flow in. That is inevitable and there is nothing anyone can do about it.

India IS the next big thing in the global economy and we know it. Its just a matter of time when the big money starts flowing in. Nothing to do with china. In fact, china itself is pretty desperate to invest in India and we know that too.

With challenges from within and without, India's economic development will not be smooth. India has been expecting China's investment to help with its infrastructure. Some in India's strategic and economic circles hope that India can join the Belt and Road initiative and believe China's development is an opportunity for India. But the changes of India's China policy are only tactical, not strategic, as India's traditional hegemonic and Cold War mentality has not changed. The Modi government thinks that India should become a leading country rather than simply a balancer. India believes that China is India's geopolitical rival.

This is true, but we fear chinese investment and are not too keen on it. That is just another reality and china needs to deal with it dispassionately.

Its also true that we see yourself as a future world power along with china. We do not plan to be second to china, but that is not necessarily a threat to china, it can be an opportunity to have a rich and powerful neighbour who is a friend. It will depend on how your deal with your neighbour. Make them your friend, make them your relative, or make them your enemy.

India has been striving to balance or even contain China's rise and pushing forward the so-called Indo-Pacific strategy with the US, Japan and Australia. It has always been unsettled about China's economic cooperation with the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Pakistan.

True and India will always try to balance this.

But India has changed its understanding of its strength gap with China. In the past few years, India had believed its hardline stance would propel China to compromise and it engaged with China by wooing the US. It also provoked China on the Taiwan and Tibet questions. Whether these diplomatic moves will change remains to be seen.

True again. India knows china is a bully and the only way to deal with a bully is to bully them right back. So India is not going to rethink its tactics with china, its china who will have to recognize that India has learnt to deal with china and have to come up with innovative ways to deal with India so that it can save face.

Also china needs to understand that china needs to save face a LOT more than India cares to save face. This too is just a statement of fact. Please read and understand this dispassionately i.e without any emotions.

The warming of ties between China and India is out of the needs of both sides. In the short term, India hopes to have better relations with China so as to solve its domestic issues and develop its economy. In the long run, it wants to catch up with China in strength. China needs to watch India's words and deeds closely.

I agree. and India truly desires this. Friendship with china AND catch up with china in strengh. Only thing that remains is at what cost.

China can watch, but make sure you understand India and not let your limited understanding of India to feed your fears or paranoia.

@beijingwalker your comments ?

 

[Jlaw]

China should stir shit up at the border and get south Tibet back. If you can't get that back from backwards India China leadership need a big change. There is no point engaging them and try to get them to join OBOR. I feel sorry for Pakistan who has such a powerful Ally like China but china's current leadership has the courage of a chinchilla.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

We need china to negotiate with global agencies. THIS is what we really want, and what china can deliver for us. THIS is the real negotiating point where mutually beneficial give and take can happen.

Where is the give and take? China has veto power, India does not, what can India give?

 

[UserUnknown2025]

China should stir shit up at the border and get south Tibet back. If you can't get that back from backwards India China leadership need a big change. There is no point engaging them and try to get them to join OBOR. I feel sorry for Pakistan who has such a powerful Ally like China but china's current leadership has the courage of a chinchilla.

The leadership is probably too fixated on the US to care about taking back south Tibet. After all, US is a much much bigger threat compared to India.

 

[Jlaw]

The leadership is probably too fixated on the US to care about taking back south Tibet. After all, US is a much much bigger threat compared to India.

True to some extent. But since Xi's emperor status inauguration he's beginning to appease America more. Like trying to buy more chips from Murica companies (even knowing Murica is unfairly targeting China companies), opening up financial sectors to Rothschild controlled banking system, etc.
But I guess Chinese leadership is happy buying properties in the west and keep buying useless t bills and still have no access to to buy western companies.

 

[UserUnknown2025]

True to some extent. But since Xi's emperor status inauguration he's beginning to appease America more. Like trying to buy more chips from Murica companies (even knowing Murica is unfairly targeting China companies), opening up financial sectors to Rothschild controlled banking system, etc.
But I guess Chinese leadership is happy buying properties in the west and keep buying useless t bills and still have no access to to buy western companies.

I don’t think China is strong enough to start a full confrontation with the US and it’s allies. China could just be buying its time.

True to some extent. But since Xi's emperor status inauguration he's beginning to appease America more. Like trying to buy more chips from Murica companies (even knowing Murica is unfairly targeting China companies), opening up financial sectors to Rothschild controlled banking system, etc.
But I guess Chinese leadership is happy buying properties in the west and keep buying useless t bills and still have no access to to buy western companies.

习可不可能在用离间计？

 

[Mace]

China should stir shit up at the border and get south Tibet back. If you can't get that back from backwards India China leadership need a big change. There is no point engaging them and try to get them to join OBOR. I feel sorry for Pakistan who has such a powerful Ally like China but china's current leadership has the courage of a chinchilla.

India must deploy Tac nukes pointing towards Chinese forces in Tibet for deterrence. Just Brahmos will not cut it.

 

[Jlaw]

India must deploy Tac nukes pointing towards Chinese forces in Tibet for deterrence. Just Brahmos will not cut it.

Funny thing is India doesn't have thermonuclear bombs. Not sure what tactical nukes you mean?

 

[Mace]

Funny thing is India doesn't have thermonuclear bombs. Not sure what tactical nukes you mean?

So you are ok with a fission bomb exploding over Beijing or Shanghai??

Tac nukes = Low yield nukes

 

[UserUnknown2025]

So you are ok with a fission bomb exploding over Beijing or Shanghai??

Tac nukes = Low yield nukes

Are you this eager to commit suicide? China will oblige to your wishes.

 

[Mace]

Are you this eager to commit suicide? China will oblige to your wishes.

Either you have comprehension issues or you are too lazy to see previous posts.

Rest assured suicide will not be one way affair. China will have its share of flattened cities also.

The key word is deterrence.

 

[UserUnknown2025]

China can afford to have its cities flattened while this can't be said for India. But this might be helpful for India because its toilet per capita will certainly go up.

 

[Mace]

China can afford to have its cities flattened while this can't be said for India. But this might be helpful for India because its toilet per capita will certainly go up.

That is your best come back. Hope when sh*t hits the fan you have the courage to be in China and not hiding in US.

Bottom line - You are not scaring the Indians.

 

[faithfulguy]

Are you this eager to commit suicide? China will oblige to your wishes.

When dealing with India, this is the best tactic

As India does not know how to behave in a civil manner. But a kickin the a*s will wake them up to reality. So the picture describe the best method to deal with the petulant India.