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India's GDP will be bigger than Japan, Germany combined in 4 years: IMF

Sorry you are wrong ... Your one child policy have already created a dent in Ur future. If you ask me I will say currently Chinese economy stronger than in the future. You will have world largest aging population which in turn will have to be dealt with more medical care , more scheme for the elderly , insurance ... and ore over you need to feed them and spend lots of money from your pocket. I guess Chinese already understood hence you are spending lots of money now and stockpiling weapons for the future .

What about your workforce ? Demanding for high wages ? When you hike their wage most important bling on Chinese products will be long gone. It won't cheap anymore . On other hand India will have 60-65% population under 35 . That's lots of work force , cheap labour , more R&D
A young and burgeoning population can be an economic asset but a young and burgeoning population with little education or formal skills can also be a huge economic burden as well. And that is were India is at today. The education level of the average Indians now is were China was in the 1980's and is lower than what it is in ASEAN today. Based on that alone India has a competitive disadvantage. You are already seeing that lower end manufactures who are leaving China are going to ASEAN countries rather than India.

India neither has the infrastructure, eco system, skilled labor or tradition for large scale manufacturing and is fighting a rare guard battle against established manufacturing countries like China and even the ASEAN countries. Mr Modi talks a good talk and foreigners are polite. But FDI isn't really booming and instead speculative money is flowing towards Indian assets like the stockmarket. And manufacturing isn't really picking up either from the data that I have seen.
 
Absolutely right assessment by IMF...even on Nominal scale Our GDP would surpass Russia......This is not a matter of joy as India has yet to take care of its "Demographic Divided"
 
I would take these Westerners projections lightly, we will reach it no doubt, but Most of the times these news articles are hit jobs to see how India will behave against her Neighbours.
Experiments.Is what West does,when it does not know how to deal with specific opponents and waits to see the reaction.
Like in Devyani Khobragade (Indian Diplomat) case they thought we were pushovers, but when Pan India anger grew they did a rethink,Fired their Ambassador Nancy Jo Powell and sent a Pro-India Ambassador,That was during election time.
They were Experimenting with Propaganda against us during Elections with Hit jobs in Media against Modi and Praising Rahul Gandh(during election time)i.You all know those articles. The Devyani case was to see how Compliant and America Friendly the Indian people had become after introduction of Westernisation concept,to be called their stooge.
Thank god! We showed them their place.
In a way i will thank our Leftist friends in India too,(You never saw me do that before ;) )But if you see the Big Picture it comes down to us, IF we allow outsiders they will take advantage of you,If you don't allow outsiders.
Then Come NATO or the whole world,we don't care! :D
We only want what is good for our Country.I am your brother,whenever you work for this Nation.
But this silly Political Brownie scoring points has to stop before that happens.
That is the change i want to see, When it comes to National Interest There should be no Liberal or Conservative view, but only one view ,that is "Giving our people a better life".
Learn from USA, both parties fight in USA but Foreign Policy remains the same.
 
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You ate saying the same what European and the Americans said about China before 2000



Are you saying IMF controlled by RAW ? Just to say this so she will get paid by India :D or what ?...

Europeans settled in Americas, So it is quasi Europeans speaking, are saying the same thing as they said about every Asian country.
These IMF projections and etc. are a kind of flattery, Understand to "separate the wheat from the chaff".

Why are they projecting Economy of Bharat to go up(we will go up no matter what they do), While they castigate and try to punish us at the same time?
It shows you their Jealousy,That we will soon grow out of their Grip.
We are Mavericks from the beginning,That is the nature of Bharat :).
I know for these to happen we need 10 year rule of PM Narendra Modiji,because the rot is too deep and we need to clean it up first.We gave 60+ years to Congress, let's give us 10 Years to set us right and make us reach,Bharata Bhaagya Vidhata! (The bestower of good fortune) for this nation.That is our destiny!
We will eliminate these GOI file leakers and state secret leakers.While plugging Black money AND RE-EDUCATING these Sarkari Babus That things don't work that way your Dad used to do now.
Those are some steps though, feel free to add more. :)

We already got rid of the One-child policy. So your entire argument is based on wrong information. :lol:
Well my friend, that effect of two child policy will take atleast a decade to show its benefits.

[
Pakistan's GDP is three times that of Luxembourg's and Iceland's combined. Should I be proud? Of course not. The quality of life for ordinary people is millions of miles apart.
In Luxembourgs and Iceland both these nations are not at War or constantly in War mode with each other!
Therefore, all their economy is pushed to give their citizens a good life.
We can do that too!
Other nations purchase our RAW products cheap and remake them and again sell it to us.

I remember my grandmother used to say every needle during colonial times was labelled "Made in Germany" The ore was sent from India and they would sell us the same finished product overpriced.
Therefore the Quit Foreign Stuff movement happened and SWADESHI movement gained pace.
Understand the Double standards here. :)
 
A young and burgeoning population can be an economic asset but a young and burgeoning population with little education or formal skills can also be a huge economic burden as well. And that is were India is at today. The education level of the average Indians now is were China was in the 1980's and is lower than what it is in ASEAN today. Based on that alone India has a competitive disadvantage. You are already seeing that lower end manufactures who are leaving China are going to ASEAN countries rather than India.

India neither has the infrastructure, eco system, skilled labor or tradition for large scale manufacturing and is fighting a rare guard battle against established manufacturing countries like China and even the ASEAN countries. Mr Modi talks a good talk and foreigners are polite. But FDI isn't really booming and instead speculative money is flowing towards Indian assets like the stockmarket. And manufacturing isn't really picking up either from the data that I have seen.
If you think Indians don't get education then good luck with that. Am from a very normal traditional Indian family . I studied in UK . My indian school friends like out of 340 classmates everyone of them is now well settled with lots of money paid to them every month . And the new generation are more talented than us . India is known as exporters of skilled man power to the world ! If you think Indians don't get education then we'll . What ever makes you happy ! We already became super power in this area ! You name any big companies you will funds huge contribution of Indians . From IT to NASA .

On FDI and poor investment in India :
China opened its market to FDI before 3-4 decades . That too 100% FDI . We don't do it as our internal customers base is very large . So we are now opening our doors for increased FDI in all sectors .

Even without 100% FDI :---
  • Foreign direct investment (FDI) in India more than doubled to $4.48 billion in January, the highest inflow in last 29 months.

In January 2014, the country had received $2.18 billion in FDI. It was in September 2012 that India had attracted FDI that was worth $4.67 billion.

  • Green Signal for Two Big-Ticket FDI Proposals in Railways

  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi passed his first major economic reform almost a year after coming to power, as Parliament voted late on Thursday to allow more foreign investment in the insurance sector.

  • Indian state of Tamil Nadu has locked in about USD 4 billion of foreign investments of the USD 16 billion target set for the Global Investor's Meet (GIM) to be held later this year in Chennai.

  • The Reserve Bank of India on Monday notified changes in the foreign direct investment (FDI) policy allowing 100 per cent FDI in medical devices segment.
  • The government may soon take a decision on liberalising foreign direct investment norms for NRIs and overseas citizens of India as it aims to increase capital flows into the country.

These just in 2-4 months of results. India is a stable and vibrant democracy . With 1.2 billion people most of them are very young even today . In future there will be lots and lots of middle class , upper middle class and new rich population . It means more customers with lots of money to spend .

So buckle your seat belt if you are an Indian Hater . Cause you are just about to go for a bumpy raid :D

We have very interlinked business chain from very rural areas to urban areas. Even without any FDI or any new investment our small business from small shop vendors in a village to hifi mall in cities will have regular customers . I often hear that India has 20-30% poor people yet at the team of festivals and spending money these poor people really do have lots of cash to spend . It will be a caos !!!
 
it's not BS, it's just that when you read the first paragraph, you think nominal. This article actually means PPP, which India is close right now. India's about 7.2 trillion and Germany + Japan is about 8.5 trillion?

When I read the head line I also thought it was nominal but hru PPP is not so bad either you always should look at the bright side
 
If you think Indians don't get education then good luck with that. Am from a very normal traditional Indian family . I studied in UK . My indian school friends like out of 340 classmates everyone of them is now well settled with lots of money paid to them every month . And the new generation are more talented than us . India is known as exporters of skilled man power to the world ! If you think Indians don't get education then we'll . What ever makes you happy ! We already became super power in this area ! You name any big companies you will funds huge contribution of Indians . From IT to NASA .

On FDI and poor investment in India :
China opened its market to FDI before 3-4 decades . That too 100% FDI . We don't do it as our internal customers base is very large . So we are now opening our doors for increased FDI in all sectors .

Even without 100% FDI :---
  • Foreign direct investment (FDI) in India more than doubled to $4.48 billion in January, the highest inflow in last 29 months.

In January 2014, the country had received $2.18 billion in FDI. It was in September 2012 that India had attracted FDI that was worth $4.67 billion.

  • Green Signal for Two Big-Ticket FDI Proposals in Railways

  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi passed his first major economic reform almost a year after coming to power, as Parliament voted late on Thursday to allow more foreign investment in the insurance sector.

  • Indian state of Tamil Nadu has locked in about USD 4 billion of foreign investments of the USD 16 billion target set for the Global Investor's Meet (GIM) to be held later this year in Chennai.

  • The Reserve Bank of India on Monday notified changes in the foreign direct investment (FDI) policy allowing 100 per cent FDI in medical devices segment.
  • The government may soon take a decision on liberalising foreign direct investment norms for NRIs and overseas citizens of India as it aims to increase capital flows into the country.
It may will be that India has some great universities but the fact remains that there are 100's of millions of Indians that h
These just in 2-4 months of results. India is a stable and vibrant democracy . With 1.2 billion people most of them are very young even today . In future there will be lots and lots of middle class , upper middle class and new rich population . It means more customers with lots of money to spend .

So buckle your seat belt if you are an Indian Hater . Cause you are just about to go for a bumpy raid :D

We have very interlinked business chain from very rural areas to urban areas. Even without any FDI or any new investment our small business from small shop vendors in a village to hifi mall in cities will have regular customers . I often hear that India has 20-30% poor people yet at the team of festivals and spending money these poor people really do have lots of cash to spend . It will be a caos !!!
If you think Indians don't get education then good luck with that. Am from a very normal traditional Indian family . I studied in UK . My indian school friends like out of 340 classmates everyone of them is now well settled with lots of money paid to them every month . And the new generation are more talented than us . India is known as exporters of skilled man power to the world ! If you think Indians don't get education then we'll . What ever makes you happy ! We already became super power in this area ! You name any big companies you will funds huge contribution of Indians . From IT to NASA .

On FDI and poor investment in India :
China opened its market to FDI before 3-4 decades . That too 100% FDI . We don't do it as our internal customers base is very large . So we are now opening our doors for increased FDI in all sectors .

Even without 100% FDI :---
  • Foreign direct investment (FDI) in India more than doubled to $4.48 billion in January, the highest inflow in last 29 months.

In January 2014, the country had received $2.18 billion in FDI. It was in September 2012 that India had attracted FDI that was worth $4.67 billion.

  • Green Signal for Two Big-Ticket FDI Proposals in Railways

  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi passed his first major economic reform almost a year after coming to power, as Parliament voted late on Thursday to allow more foreign investment in the insurance sector.

  • Indian state of Tamil Nadu has locked in about USD 4 billion of foreign investments of the USD 16 billion target set for the Global Investor's Meet (GIM) to be held later this year in Chennai.

  • The Reserve Bank of India on Monday notified changes in the foreign direct investment (FDI) policy allowing 100 per cent FDI in medical devices segment.
  • The government may soon take a decision on liberalising foreign direct investment norms for NRIs and overseas citizens of India as it aims to increase capital flows into the country.

These just in 2-4 months of results. India is a stable and vibrant democracy . With 1.2 billion people most of them are very young even today . In future there will be lots and lots of middle class , upper middle class and new rich population . It means more customers with lots of money to spend .

So buckle your seat belt if you are an Indian Hater . Cause you are just about to go for a bumpy raid :D

We have very interlinked business chain from very rural areas to urban areas. Even without any FDI or any new investment our small business from small shop vendors in a village to hifi mall in cities will have regular customers . I often hear that India has 20-30% poor people yet at the team of festivals and spending money these poor people really do have lots of cash to spend . It will be a caos !!!
The fact is that there are a large portion of the Indian population with very little education and formal skills out there and more are joining their ranks each year. A few good universities don't change that fact. A country cannot be run by university gradutes alone. And it remains a fact that the Indian population has a education level lower than that of China or most of the ASEAN countries. Just like that China's population has a lower education level compared to that of the OECD countries notwithstanding that China has some pretty good universities. Even better than those in India. And the fact that so many educated Indians are choosing to work abroad instead of inside India is also another problem.

And like I said its not only education but also infrastructure, eco system and experience and tradition that India lacks when it comes to manufacturing.

FDI at 29 months high in january doesn't mean much and we will have to see if the inflow can keep up. And its only a fraction of what China and ASEAN brings in.
 
The fact is that there are a large portion of the Indian population with very little education and formal skills out there and more are joining their ranks each year. A few good universities don't change that fact. A country cannot be run by university gradutes alone. And it remains a fact that the Indian population has a education level lower than that of China or most of the ASEAN countries. Just like that China's population has a lower education level compared to that of the OECD countries notwithstanding that China has some pretty good universities. Even better than those in India. And the fact that so many educated Indians are choosing to work abroad instead of inside India is also another problem.

And like I said its not only education but also infrastructure, eco system and experience and tradition that India lacks when it comes to manufacturing.

FDI at 29 months high in january doesn't mean much and we will have to see if the inflow can keep up. And its only a fraction of what China and ASEAN brings in.

What a joke ! Our nation is flooded with new engineers passing out each and every year. Doctors are almost the world's best . Again flooded even with 1 -2 cr rupees for a seat as a donation excluding the fee . Our polytechnics colleges are flooded with students and are directly taken for jobs after the exam is over . Right now the shipping world is filled with Indian Mariners . SL day by day our standard of studies and quality of education is beyond imagination. All you doing is a brain fart with out any proof . Can you provide the numbers which u claim almost most of the Indian s don't have education. Matter of fact we have a state in India called Kerala which is 95-97 % educated . These are few drops in a ocean. Now licence for engineering colleges is been controlled by government due to large numbers of pass outs ...

And come your stupid claims without any substantial proof. This is not China where all students are trained as a cheap labourers . In India we create a leader for the world . From the primary schools itself . Just Google the quality of education between India vs World super power America . Ur tricks won't work here .

The way you speak is a clear indication of your quality of insecurity no the the education system ! Ur superpower leather Workers toys workers villagers etc are living in worst conditions than that of poor India ... to put in protective check this out

China’s unemployment rate is higher than India’s, but some say underemployment also needs to be taken into account.



While some think China’s literacy rate may be overstated, there is no doubt it has reached a remarkable level, especially given that people must learn characters rather than an alphabet. Over 96% of the population are literate - compared to just over 71% in India.

Now add your fake propaganda by your Communist Party . Which said China already became super power but the world think it's not !!!!

It's a good article but don't forget to read the last line . Which talks about maturity and innovation .

The latest forecast suggests that the tide may be turning in India's favour, possibly for good. The World Bank anticipates that, by 2017, India will be growing faster than China.

The short-term forecast based on some specific circumstances reveals that, India, for example, now has a credible central banker doing sensible things like tackling inflation. The country's new government is finally building infrastructure and cutting the red tape that held the economy back for so many years.

If India keeps it up, the World Bank expects its economy to grow 7 per cent in 2017, up from 5.5 per cent in 2014. Meanwhile, the forecast calls for growth in China to slow as its government reduces spending, tightens credit, and unwinds its housing bubble. The bank expects China's growth to fall from 7.4 per cent in 2014 to a modest 6.9 per cent in 2017.

There are reasons to believe that the slowdown is not a temporary blip and that, over the long term, India's economy will ultimately overtake China's. At the moment, both countries are growing so quickly because they're catching up to richer economies. They are shaking off the effects of market isolation, under-educated populations, limited access to technology, poor infrastructure, and regulations that stifled business development. Eventually, when these economies catch up, adding machines won't increase productivity. It's impossible to predict exactly how long this will take.

Writing in the Financial Times, Martin Wolf predicts that China and India's fast-growth convergence phase will run at least an additional 20 years. At that point, they -like the current powerhouse economies in the developed world -would be lucky to grow more than a steady 3 per cent per year.

Once that happens, growth will depend on demographics and each country's ability to innovate. India has a better outlook on both fronts. Its population is growing; China's is shrinking.

It's harder to predict which country will be better at innovation. Signs point to India because democracies, with their secure property rights and general stability, tend to be better at fostering successful entrepreneurship. China's authoritarian capitalism is a new model, and it's not clear whether it can produce the sort of environment in which people take chances, form businesses, and invent things.

India still faces many hurdles. It needs to build lots of infrastructure, improve access to quality education, and remove the bureaucracy that has existed for years under many vested interests.This is an area in which China's more authoritarian system has an edge. Its leaders have greater liberty to make hard choices and smooth out rough patches.

China's may prove to be a better model for catch-up growth. But managing a thriving, mature economy requires entrepreneurship and innovation. So far, India has the edge.
 
Five reasons why IMF chief Christine Lagarde is bullish on India

five-reasons-imf-chief-christine-lagarde-is-bullish-on-india.jpg


1) Modi government & RBI:
"PM Modi, his government and (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan are skillfully shifting the focus to good macroeconomic management, transparent government, and inclusive development. I welcome the bold initiatives, including the move to formalize inflation targeting, the "Make in India" campaign," said Lagarde in an interview to TOI.

2) Thumbs up to Budget:
The budget for 2015-16 was a step in the right direction, according to Lagarde. "The 2015 Budget struck a good growth-equity balance. There's emphasis on increasing the provision of public infrastructure, and within a fiscally-responsible framework. Subsidy reforms are helping, but difficult choices remain ahead as the authorities seek to create additional fiscal space for their high priority spending," Lagarde told TOI.

According to Lagarde, the private sector can play an important role in developing infrastructure, and the government is rightly focusing on much-needed improvements in the regulatory framework and overall business climate. "It appears that the broad path of reform is established. Now implementation has to follow - as we know, success begets success," she said.

She also said that there can be synergies between fiscal consolidation and financial intermediation. As fiscal deficit shrinks, Indian banks could reorient their balance sheets away from holding government securities toward more lending to the private sector for investment and growth, she said.


3) Fastest growing economy: The IMF expects India's GDP (gross domestic product) growth to pick up to 7.2% in the current fiscal and accelerate to 7.5% in 2015-16 - making India the fastest growing large economy in the world.

"India is indeed a bright spot, and economic development holds much promise. India has an opportunity to become one of the world's most dynamic economies. My message will be: Seize it! Certainly, the numbers are on India's side: The revised GDP data suggest a strong pace of economic activity, with growth likely to reach more than 7% in 2014-15. Inflation has fallen to around 5%, current account deficit has shrunk, and the rupee has been steady since late 2013. The sharp drop in oil prices too is ..

Global growth remains moderate and uneven. Despite a boost from a decline in oil prices, we expect the world economy to grow by about 3.5% this year, picking up modestly next year to 3.7%.

In emerging markets and developing countries, growth is projected to pick up from less than 4.5% this year to a little more next year, but it'll vary widely across countries. Among the emerging markets, and compared to advanced economies, India is the bright spot.

4) Better prepared for external shocks: A possible interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve could pose risks to market stability in emerging economies, including India, even if it is well managed by central banks, according to Lagarde.

One cannot ignore the risks of volatility in capital flows that could emerge as the US normalizes its monetary policy stance as advanced countries ramp up quantitative easing.

However, India has prepared better than most emerging-market economies for any such external shocks, shrinking current account deficit and increasing stock of international reserves; the higher GDP growth expected now, should help, says Lagarde.

5) Subsidy reforms for reducing poverty: Lagarde feels that the new government's push toward using the Jan Dhan platform to ensure welfare payments reach intended beneficiaries is commendable.

"Subsidies needed to help the poor often end up favoring the middle class. That's why the JAM Number trinity - Jan Dhan, Aadhaar and Mobile could be a step up in terms of direct income support to the poor," she says.

Five reasons why IMF chief Christine Lagarde is bullish on India - Page2 - The Economic Times
 
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What a joke ! Our nation is flooded with new engineers passing out each and every year. Doctors are almost the world's best . Again flooded even with 1 -2 cr rupees for a seat as a donation excluding the fee . Our polytechnics colleges are flooded with students and are directly taken for jobs after the exam is over . Right now the shipping world is filled with Indian Mariners . SL day by day our standard of studies and quality of education is beyond imagination. All you doing is a brain fart with out any proof . Can you provide the numbers which u claim almost most of the Indian s don't have education. Matter of fact we have a state in India called Kerala which is 95-97 % educated . These are few drops in a ocean. Now licence for engineering colleges is been controlled by government due to large numbers of pass outs ...

And come your stupid claims without any substantial proof. This is not China where all students are trained as a cheap labourers . In India we create a leader for the world . From the primary schools itself . Just Google the quality of education between India vs World super power America . Ur tricks won't work here .

The way you speak is a clear indication of your quality of insecurity no the the education system ! Ur superpower leather Workers toys workers villagers etc are living in worst conditions than that of poor India ... to put in protective check this out

China’s unemployment rate is higher than India’s, but some say underemployment also needs to be taken into account.



While some think China’s literacy rate may be overstated, there is no doubt it has reached a remarkable level, especially given that people must learn characters rather than an alphabet. Over 96% of the population are literate - compared to just over 71% in India.

Now add your fake propaganda by your Communist Party . Which said China already became super power but the world think it's not !!!!

It's a good article but don't forget to read the last line . Which talks about maturity and innovation .

The latest forecast suggests that the tide may be turning in India's favour, possibly for good. The World Bank anticipates that, by 2017, India will be growing faster than China.

The short-term forecast based on some specific circumstances reveals that, India, for example, now has a credible central banker doing sensible things like tackling inflation. The country's new government is finally building infrastructure and cutting the red tape that held the economy back for so many years.

If India keeps it up, the World Bank expects its economy to grow 7 per cent in 2017, up from 5.5 per cent in 2014. Meanwhile, the forecast calls for growth in China to slow as its government reduces spending, tightens credit, and unwinds its housing bubble. The bank expects China's growth to fall from 7.4 per cent in 2014 to a modest 6.9 per cent in 2017.

There are reasons to believe that the slowdown is not a temporary blip and that, over the long term, India's economy will ultimately overtake China's. At the moment, both countries are growing so quickly because they're catching up to richer economies. They are shaking off the effects of market isolation, under-educated populations, limited access to technology, poor infrastructure, and regulations that stifled business development. Eventually, when these economies catch up, adding machines won't increase productivity. It's impossible to predict exactly how long this will take.

Writing in the Financial Times, Martin Wolf predicts that China and India's fast-growth convergence phase will run at least an additional 20 years. At that point, they -like the current powerhouse economies in the developed world -would be lucky to grow more than a steady 3 per cent per year.

Once that happens, growth will depend on demographics and each country's ability to innovate. India has a better outlook on both fronts. Its population is growing; China's is shrinking.

It's harder to predict which country will be better at innovation. Signs point to India because democracies, with their secure property rights and general stability, tend to be better at fostering successful entrepreneurship. China's authoritarian capitalism is a new model, and it's not clear whether it can produce the sort of environment in which people take chances, form businesses, and invent things.

India still faces many hurdles. It needs to build lots of infrastructure, improve access to quality education, and remove the bureaucracy that has existed for years under many vested interests.This is an area in which China's more authoritarian system has an edge. Its leaders have greater liberty to make hard choices and smooth out rough patches.

China's may prove to be a better model for catch-up growth. But managing a thriving, mature economy requires entrepreneurship and innovation. So far, India has the edge.

On education.

India disappoints in educational outcome test - Livemint

On innovation China vs India.

Data Analysis | The Global Innovation Index 2014
 
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But still then an average Indian Citizen will be earning atleast 20 times lesser then a German & Japanese. By 2025 India will take on China as the largest populated country. Its same as 100 laborers may earn combine the same income as an Executive of a multinational company, but lots of difference.
The development is, how much the citizen of a country have access to clean water, best of health and education, jobs, transport etc.
All other is just paper figures of politicians and bureaucrats to fool the public.

PS: Its true for Pakistan as well.

Yea, go envy ... go.

Am loving the heartburn
 
It's just two years away, not gonna happen.
4 hears away ... by 2019 you will see the difference . First 2 years for repairs next three years for full throttle reforms .

So its been 10 months repairs are taking place at faster phase . We all can feel or see them on the ground . So plans are been well worked out.
 

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