India's GDP will be bigger than Japan, Germany combined in 4 years: IMF

[Nine Inch Nails]

NEW DELHI: The Indian economy, whose size is $2 trillion as of now, is poised to overtake the combined GDP of Japan and Germany in the next four years on the back of recent policy reforms and improved business confidence in the country, IMF chief Christine Lagarde said today.

"Indeed, a brighter future is being forged right before your eyes. By 2019, the economy will more than double in size compared to 2009. When adjusting for differences in purchase prices between economies, India's GDP will exceed that of Japan and Germany combined," the IMF Managing Director said at a lecture here.

"Indian output will also exceed the combined output of the three next largest emerging market economies -- Russia, Brazil, and Indonesia. So clearly India's weight among the group of emerging markets will increase," she said.

"Recent policy reforms and improved business confidence have provided a booster shot to economic activity," she said.

Using India's new GDP series, the IMF expects growth to pick up to 7.2 per cent this fiscal year and accelerate further to 7.5 percent next year--making India the fastest growing large economy in the world, she added.

Asked if the International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes new series of data, she said "conditionally".

On whether the multilateral funding agency has sought for some explanation on how the new series have been arrived at she merely said, "yes".

Elaborating on reasons for rapid economic expansion, she said much of this has to do with population growth.

"More than 50 per cent of India's population is at present below the age of 25, and more than 12 million people enter the labour market every year," she said.

By 2030, Lagarde said India is expected to have the largest labour force in the world.

At more than one billion people of working age, India's labour force will be larger than the combined labour force in the United States, the euro area, and Indonesia, she added.

"The potential benefits to be reaped from your collective work efforts could be enormous. So, we know India can run--- judging by your cricket record. I believe India can fly," she said.

As India grows and takes its rightful place in the global economy, the focus should remain on sound policies and inclusive institutions, she said.

India's GDP will be bigger than Japan, Germany combined in 4 years: IMF - The Economic Times

Subhanallah !!!


Aapke munh mein ice cream sandwich !


This is the task at hand people. Not beef, not temple, not mosque, not changing gods.

This is our ticket to survival if you ask me. Or else we will collapse under our own weight. It's so or die.

Do not waste time with those who worry about bullshit things.

 

[Genesis]

You ate saying the same what European and the Americans said about China before 2000

Fair, I won't argue the merits of the argument, but I will say, we didn't go around the world claiming the down fall of Europe and America every second post.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Sorry you are wrong ... Your one child policy have already created a dent in Ur future. If you ask me I will say currently Chinese economy stronger than in the future. You will have world largest aging population which in turn will have to be dealt with more medical care , more scheme for the elderly , insurance ... and ore over you need to feed them and spend lots of money from your pocket. I guess Chinese already understood hence you are spending lots of money now and stockpiling weapons for the future .

What about your workforce ? Demanding for high wages ? When you hike their wage most important bling on Chinese products will be long gone. It won't cheap anymore . On other hand India will have 60-65% population under 35 . That's lots of work force , cheap labour , more R&D

We already got rid of the One-child policy. So your entire argument is based on wrong information.

 

[SrNair]

But still then an average Indian Citizen will be earning atleast 20 times lesser then a German & Japanese. By 2025 India will take on China as the largest populated country. Its same as 100 laborers may earn combine the same income as an Executive of a multinational company, but lots of difference.
The development is, how much the citizen of a country have access to clean water, best of health and education, jobs, transport etc.
All other is just paper figures of politicians and bureaucrats to fool the public.

PS: Its true for Pakistan as well.

As an Indian .I dont think so.Huge development is going on here .They even managed to construct 40 lakhs bathroom facilities within 3 months and 10 crore within 5 years .

 

[Gibbs]

We already got rid of the One-child policy. So your entire argument is based on wrong information.

Most of his arguments are.. Rather on no information

 

[Aepsilons]

India, definitely, has so much potential to be an economic power. With continued economic growth rate, coupled with better governance and increased foreign investment, and infrastructure development, there is no reason why India's economy cannot match and even exceed Germany's, Japan's or both combined.

Japan is vested in India's growth -- as you may well already know that there are already over 1,300 Japanese companies that are based in the country, with that number set to increase further as India opens itself to greater FDI. With this synergistic relationship in mind, India's success is to the benefit of Japan, and further integration of our economies will usher a wealth of opportunities for our two countries, and also for the greater East & South Asian Region.

Best of luck always to our friends and partners in India.

 

[Ind4Ever]

We already got rid of the One-child policy. So your entire argument is based on wrong information.

Bhuhahahaha Bhuhahahaha

My point was it already created lots of damage

Mean while we wr reproducing like you mobile factories

 

[Nine Inch Nails]

India, definitely, has so much potential to be an economic power. With continued economic growth rate, coupled with better governance and increased foreign investment, and infrastructure development, there is no reason why India's economy cannot match and even exceed Germany's, Japan's or both combined.

Japan is vested in India's growth -- as you may well already know that there are already over 1,300 Japanese companies that are based in the country, with that number set to increase further as India opens itself to greater FDI. With this synergistic relationship in mind, India's success is to the benefit of Japan, and further integration of our economies will usher a wealth of opportunities for our two countries, and also for the greater East & South Asian Region.

Best of luck always to our friends and partners in India.

On topic :

 

[WAR-rior]

Wow so China will still have the largest labor force in the world up to 2030?

That gives us more time than I expected. And even after that our labor force will still be enormous.

With more per capita productivity that could give us a truly astonishing level of total output.

But dude. What bout per capita age. After 15 years China will no more be a young country. Now is important for a country to get developed before it gets old. I hope 15 yrs is enough for a robust country like China to get developed or atleast cross the average global per capita GDP.

 

[Aepsilons]

Dear respectable gentlemen, ladies,

We should not view economic growth of nation(s) in the lens of despondence or protestation , the growth of one should not be equated with decrease of the other. Economic exchange do not function in such linear thinking. Rather, one must , and should, appreciate the intercommensurability of the economies of nations. India , like China, and Pakistan, are both developing countries, with immense natural resources, a large population base, and thus represent the engines of growth for the global economy. As we all increase trade, investments, new doors of partnership(s) will open.

Lastly, both India and China are the world's largest nations (in terms of population), and that wealth of human capital will be the engine of economic dynamism that will transform Asia into the economic axis of the world. Sure there are some barriers to development in India now, but these shall be ameliorated in time. Just as how it has been observed in China ; and China has , indeed, transformed for the better if we are to compare China of the 1970s to the China of today. China and India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Brazil --- are nations that will be future engines of growth in this century.

Regards,
@Nihonjin1051

 

[Ind4Ever]

We already got rid of the One-child policy. So your entire argument is based on wrong information.

Bhuhahahaha Bhuhahahaha
China's population is ageing. By 2050 more than a quarter of the population will be over 65 years old and younger generations face an unprecedented burden of care.
Fewer children


In the late 1970s and early 1980s, the government advocated a "later, longer, fewer" lifestyle, encouraging people to marry later, have wide gaps between children and fewer children overall. It also instated the controversial one-child policy. These were attempts to curb population growth in a bid to help modernise the economy.

Chinese women are having fewer children, but having a smaller generation follow a boom generation - and longer life expectancies - means that by 2050, it is expected that for every 100 people aged 20-64, there will be 45 people aged over 65, compared with about 15 today.

Use the slider below the graphs to see how China's age structure is changing



2010 total 1.34 billion
Aged 65+ 110 million

• 1950
• 1960
• 1970
• 1980
• 1990
• 2000
• 2010
• 2020
• 2030
• 2040
• 2050
• 2060
• 2070
• 2080
• 2090
• 2100

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2010)

The 4-2-1 family
Only children from single-child parents face what is known as the 4-2-1 phenomenon: when the child reaches working age, he or she could have to care for two parents and four grandparents in retirement. One-child couple Zini and Lin are in that situation, and their family are concerned.

• 1950
• China was a developing country, with high birth rates and a life expectancy of about 44 years.

• 1980
• China's one-child policy was introduced in 1979. Exemptions are allowed, eg. couples who had a girl first, families in rural areas, etc.

• 2010
• When children of the one-child generation reach their 30s or 40s, there is a good chance their parents and grandparents will be alive and need some form of care.

previous slide next slide 1/3

• Share of population aged 65+
  8%
  China
  
  
• Share of population aged 65+
  17%
  UK
  

The grandparents
Mr and Mrs Wang (Zini's parents - both working)
We are good now. We have our pensions and shouldn't need financial support from our son and daughter-in-law in the future. We will try our best not to bother our son and his wife in our old age. But personally we would prefer to be looked after at home rather than the care homes.

Mr and Mrs Zhang (Lin's parents - Mr Zhang works but his wife has retired)
We are trying to save as much as we can as well as staying as healthy as possible so we would have a comfortable old age, also not to rely on our daughter and son-in-law when we get older both in money terms or physically.

One-child success?
China's fertility rate - the average number of children a woman has in their lifetime - is 1.6, which is lower than the rate in the UK and the US.

The Chinese government believes the one-child policy curtailed population growth, and that it prevented 400 million extra births.

The BBC asked Cai Yong, a population expert at the University of North Carolina, to estimate what the country's population growth would have been without the one-child policy.

His findings suggest that China's fertility would have declined at a similar rate without the one-child policy and would continue to decline even if the policy was discarded.

How did the one-child policy affect population levels?

Cai Yong writes:

The UN's Population Division and statisticians from the University of Washington developed a set of sophisticated models to predict a country's future fertility based on its fertility change history and fertility trends in all other countries.

Applying the same model to China, assuming we only know its fertility history prior to the one-child policy, we can "predict" China's fertility level since. The "predictions" can then be compared with what really happened.

China had a remarkable success in fertility reduction in the 1970s, before the introduction of the one-child policy: China's fertility dropped from 5.8 children per woman in 1970 to 2.7 in 1978. The model suggests that fertility would have continued its decline without the one-child policy, and possibly would have declined even faster.

This last point seems to be counterintuitive, but one explanation could be that the policy caused anxiety among the population, which prompted many to have children at an earlier time. There was a decline in age at first marriage and age at first childbearing in the 1980s.

Many exemptions to the one-child policy are made depending on location, job and the sex of your first child. Families who are not subject to any exemption can, if they can afford it, pay the fine for breaking the one-child rule and have more children. However, the policy took a toll on many families.

Critics point to the measures taken to ensure its implementation, including forced abortions, sterilisations and sex-selective abortions, which have skewed China's sex ratios; the latest census figures suggested nearly six boys were born to every five girls. Fertility decline is a global phenomenon: most developing countries experience fertility reduction without any draconian governmental measures.

Produced by: Dominic Bailey, Mick Ruddy, Marina Shchukina


Want some more ? Of what ? BURNOIL

 

[45'22']

Dear respectable gentlemen, ladies,

We should not view economic growth of nation(s) in the lens of despondence or protestation , the growth of one should not be equated with decrease of the other. Economic exchange do not function in such linear thinking. Rather, one must , and should, appreciate the intercommensurability of the economies of nations. India , like China, and Pakistan, are both developing countries, with immense natural resources, a large population base, and thus represent the engines of growth for the global economy. As we all increase trade, investments, new doors of partnership(s) will open.

Lastly, both India and China are the world's largest nations (in terms of population), and that wealth of human capital will be the engine of economic dynamism that will transform Asia into the economic axis of the world. Sure there are some barriers to development in India now, but these shall be ameliorated in time. Just as how it has been observed in China ; and China has , indeed, transformed for the better if we are to compare China of the 1970s to the China of today. China and India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Brazil --- are nations that will be future engines of growth in this century.

Regards,
@Nihonjin1051

You forgot to add Japan
It will play a vital part as well

 

[Yousafzai_M]

Pakistan's GDP is three times that of Luxembourg's and Iceland's combined. Should I be proud? Of course not. The quality of life for ordinary people is millions of miles apart.

 

[Aepsilons]

You forgot to add Japan
It will play a vital part as well

There definitely is a paradigm shift for Japan, in regards to investments. For a long time, Japan has focused investments in East Asia (China, Taiwan, Korea), as well as North America and Europe. Now , Japan is reorienting its interest in a vast and largely untapped region: South Asia.

As you may or may not already know, there is a growing economic cooperation between Bangladesh, India, and two countries in South Asia that will be target of greater Japanese investment will include : 1) Pakistan and 2) Sri Lanka.

This paradigm shift has been seen this year in : 1) Japan's pledge to invest $35 Billion in India, and 2) Japan's increaed of auto technology and manufacturing in Pakistan. These are just the beginning , my friend. The future is bright for more investments for South Asia's two great nations.

For comparative purposes here, the cumulative Japanese investment in China (from Deng Xiaopeng to now) exceeds over $900 Billion , not including the grants, and aid provided to China , which would easily put the amount of capital Japan has placed in China at over $1 Trillion.

Seeing as how South Asia is becoming ripe for investment, I believe Japan will tap into this fertile ground. Japan's recent pledge to invest $35 Billion in India early this year is , as i said before, just the tip of the iceberg. South Asia will be transformed for the better. And as all partners work together to exterminate terrorist threats, then the sooner we can expedite the realization of greater investments in the region. Afterall, it is no secret that Japan is planning to move production facilities from China to South Asia and ASEAN.

Pakistan's GDP is three times that of Luxembourg's and Iceland's combined. Should I be proud? Of course not. The quality of life for ordinary people is millions of miles apart.

One has to be pragmatic , my friend. Take comfort in knowing that this year, Pakistan's projected growth rate stands at 4.7%. Remember, gradual and continued growth is better than fast and unstable.

Despite the security risk assessment in Pakistan, despite its war on terrorism, her economy is growing very well. Expect growth rate and investment opportunities to increase as these terror cells are eradicated once and for all.

 

[45'22']

There definitely is a paradigm shift for Japan, in regards to investments. For a long time, Japan has focused investments in East Asia (China, Taiwan, Korea), as well as North America and Europe. Now , Japan is reorienting its interest in a vast and largely untapped region: South Asia.

As you may or may not already know, there is a growing economic cooperation between Bangladesh, India, and two countries in South Asia that will be target of greater Japanese investment will include : 1) Pakistan and 2) Sri Lanka.

This paradigm shift has been seen this year in : 1) Japan's pledge to invest $35 Billion in India, and 2) Japan's increaed of auto technology and manufacturing in Pakistan. These are just the beginning , my friend. The future is bright for more investments for South Asia's two great nations.

For comparative purposes here, the cumulative Japanese investment in China (from Deng Xiaopeng to now) exceeds over $900 Billion , not including the grants, and aid provided to China , which would easily put the amount of capital Japan has placed in China at over $1 Trillion.

Seeing as how South Asia is becoming ripe for investment, I believe Japan will tap into this fertile ground. Japan's recent pledge to invest $35 Billion in India early this year is , as i said before, just the tip of the iceberg. South Asia will be transformed for the better. And as all partners work together to exterminate terrorist threats, then the sooner we can expedite the realization of greater investments in the region. Afterall, it is no secret that Japan is planning to move production facilities from China to South Asia and ASEAN.

Yep there is a huge potential and Japan's help will certainly transform the region
I expect better ties among India and Japan in the coming years
When the core sector in India improves it will be a great boost to the Indian economy
Shinzo and Modi should take this relationship further ahead
there is so much we can collaborate on be it infrastructure,education,culture,defence and what not