India's GDP Revisions Draw Derision!

[Luca1]

Modi the magician.

With a stroke of a pen, India surpassed China.

India for too long have been wondering how it can surpass big daddy China. Modi the magician showed all Indians that the answer is very easy.

Woosh!
Done!

Yes, he is showing Indians why work so hard if you can just fabricate the numbers.

 

[SelfServeFive]

India claims high growth rates based on defecation measurements. How appropriate for India!

 

[Luca1]

Let India have the fastest percentage growth rate, doesn't matter how they "calculate" it.

Good for us, takes loads of pressure off us. If we can quietly keep adding the trillions, only a decade or so will be needed for us to reach a strong position (by which time our economic and military transition will be mostly complete).

India should be aware though, that the Western media will take a much greater interest in them from now on, as I'm sure they have already seen with the overwhelming reporting of social issues in India (specifically rape but plenty on poverty/caste/toilets/etc. and all that other stuff).

Why would China keep growing if China is the rabbit and Indian is the Turtoise. Shouldn't China be asleep now so India can catch up and surpass them? This is the fable that Indiana here use to compare China and India. They will be shocked if reality does not reflect their fable.

India claims high growth rates based on defecation measurements. How appropriate for India!

Soon, India will put in religious intolerance that cause real estate transactions, such as expel Muslims and Cheistians from India, take over their business and properties will count toward GDP in exaggerated value. Voila, big GDP increased,,,,,,,

 

[RiazHaq]

On popular demand, I post a graph of the difference between the GDP data and the RBI Balance of Payments (BoP) data. This is referencing my posts on how the Q4 data has been ‘fudged’ and India is likely to have seen GDP contraction (in real terms, that is, accounting for inflation). Read: Has India Plunged Into Recession? GDP Data Fudge Reveals Details and India *HAS* Seen Negative GDP Growth, BoP Confirms Data Fudge



(Click for a larger picture)

As you can see the March 2012 quarter is very strange – Exports are larger in the MOSPI figure than the BoP figure tells us, and GDP imports are much smaller than BoP data.

But there’s an important takeaway.

Exports may have been understated in GDP figures in the first three quarters of this year, by about 65,000 cr. The discrepancy in Q4 is about 87,000 cr. So the difference, for the whole year, is a manageable 22,000 cr. You might be able to explain that by saying that they’ve stuffed the corrections into the last quarter. (I don’t believe that – they keep revising earlier quarter numbers with every GDP release – so if you update the past figures, you’re not allowed the excuse that you stuff corrections into the last quarter).

But Imports remain a mystery. Even if you account for stuffing (Imports have been overstated in the GDP in the Sep and Dec quarters) the difference for the full year, between the MOSPI GDP Data and the RBI BoP, is about 120,000 cr., which is a fairly large number to miss.

The difference in imports is so large that even if you rejig for past quarter misses, it will still result in much lower GDP growth. Reworking the numbers for a (-120,000 cr.) net export figure – negative because we imported more than we exported – we still get a nominal growth number of about 4.5%. Subtracting inflation of 7% and, like we’ve talked about, a GDP contraction. Even if we eke out positive growth for the year, It’s not looking good for the last quarter.

I’ve also been told that I’m being silly for believing any of the numbers in the GDP releases, since they are largely figments of people’s imagination. While I hope that is not true, it’s not a theory that can be written off, so please use appropriate pinches of salt.


Capital Mind – GDP Data Fudge Vs. BoP: Recent Differences?

 

[Luca1]

On popular demand, I post a graph of the difference between the GDP data and the RBI Balance of Payments (BoP) data. This is referencing my posts on how the Q4 data has been ‘fudged’ and India is likely to have seen GDP contraction (in real terms, that is, accounting for inflation). Read: Has India Plunged Into Recession? GDP Data Fudge Reveals Details and India *HAS* Seen Negative GDP Growth, BoP Confirms Data Fudge



(Click for a larger picture)

As you can see the March 2012 quarter is very strange – Exports are larger in the MOSPI figure than the BoP figure tells us, and GDP imports are much smaller than BoP data.

But there’s an important takeaway.

Exports may have been understated in GDP figures in the first three quarters of this year, by about 65,000 cr. The discrepancy in Q4 is about 87,000 cr. So the difference, for the whole year, is a manageable 22,000 cr. You might be able to explain that by saying that they’ve stuffed the corrections into the last quarter. (I don’t believe that – they keep revising earlier quarter numbers with every GDP release – so if you update the past figures, you’re not allowed the excuse that you stuff corrections into the last quarter).

But Imports remain a mystery. Even if you account for stuffing (Imports have been overstated in the GDP in the Sep and Dec quarters) the difference for the full year, between the MOSPI GDP Data and the RBI BoP, is about 120,000 cr., which is a fairly large number to miss.

The difference in imports is so large that even if you rejig for past quarter misses, it will still result in much lower GDP growth. Reworking the numbers for a (-120,000 cr.) net export figure – negative because we imported more than we exported – we still get a nominal growth number of about 4.5%. Subtracting inflation of 7% and, like we’ve talked about, a GDP contraction. Even if we eke out positive growth for the year, It’s not looking good for the last quarter.

I’ve also been told that I’m being silly for believing any of the numbers in the GDP releases, since they are largely figments of people’s imagination. While I hope that is not true, it’s not a theory that can be written off, so please use appropriate pinches of salt.


Capital Mind – GDP Data Fudge Vs. BoP: Recent Differences?

IIndia was caught fabricating export data but was caught by its trading partner. How stupid. So they now create GDP figures so that no one ca compare against.

 

[Icewolf]

It's Vedic economics, calculated by Vedic math. Don't forget Vedic spaceships and Vedic plastic surgery and Vedic nukes.

 

[Hiptullha]

Shameful India, boosting GDP figures like peasants.

Silence, jealous neighbour! How dare you question the ancient Vedic mathematics of Modi-ji's government!

 

[ito]

India's Economic Growth Will Overtake China's This Year, IMF Says
Stuck in low global growth and India overtaking China – is this the 'new normal'? | Business | The Guardian
FIIs betting on India's all-round growth; IMF, World Bank forecasts add to the appeal - The Economic Times
India to surpass China in economic growth - Mar. 23, 2015
Ahead of IMF Meet, Lagarde Says India Growth Bright Spot - NDTVProfit.com

All the world including IMF, World Bank etc.. is wrong and @RiazHaq is right.

I would not even go further than this on refuting RiazHaq's jealousy filled posts via his inconsequential blog.

Silence, jealous neighbour! How dare you question the ancient Vedic mathematics of Modi-ji's government!

Unless you people are Arabs, Vedic mathematics is legacy of people residing both in present day India and Pakistan. For your information Vedic mathematics has origins in Indus valley civilization.

Indian mathematics - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Luca1]

India's Economic Growth Will Overtake China's This Year, IMF Says
Stuck in low global growth and India overtaking China – is this the 'new normal'? | Business | The Guardian
FIIs betting on India's all-round growth; IMF, World Bank forecasts add to the appeal - The Economic Times
India to surpass China in economic growth - Mar. 23, 2015
Ahead of IMF Meet, Lagarde Says India Growth Bright Spot - NDTVProfit.com

All the world including IMF, World Bank etc.. is wrong and @RiazHaq is right.

I would not even go further than this on refuting RiazHaq's jealousy filled posts via his inconsequential blog.

The western media will get people to invest in India related investment vehicles. The elite would then dump their investment, create news about how Indian Vedic calculation is wrong and cause a sell on these investments. This would crash that market, and the elite would scoop in and but them at the cheap.

 

[ito]

The western media will get people to invest in India related investment vehicles. The elite would then dump their investment, create news about how Indian Vedic calculation is wrong and cause a sell on these investments. This would crash that market, and the elite would scoop in and but them at the cheap.

You seem to know nothing on how Institutional Investors work. Please research about how global capital flows and then post. Posting about something where you don't understand will make you look like a fool. I am sure you are not a fool.

 

[Hiptullha]

India's Economic Growth Will Overtake China's This Year, IMF Says
Stuck in low global growth and India overtaking China – is this the 'new normal'? | Business | The Guardian
FIIs betting on India's all-round growth; IMF, World Bank forecasts add to the appeal - The Economic Times
India to surpass China in economic growth - Mar. 23, 2015
Ahead of IMF Meet, Lagarde Says India Growth Bright Spot - NDTVProfit.com

All the world including IMF, World Bank etc.. is wrong and @RiazHaq is right.

I would not even go further than this on refuting RiazHaq's jealousy filled posts via his inconsequential blog.



Unless you people are Arabs, Vedic mathematics is legacy of people residing both in present day India and Pakistan. For your information Vedic mathematics has origins in Indus valley civilization.

Indian mathematics - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

You forgot to mention it was used a thousand years ago. Will you criticize German and Brits that they've abandoned the practises of their celtic ancestors? Perhaps you'll rant that those darned Arabs aren't riding camels and eating lizards like their predecessors used to do? Will you one day make a trip to Japan and ask why they have forsaken the glorious past of the Samurai?

 

[Beidou2020]

India's Economic Growth Will Overtake China's This Year, IMF Says
Stuck in low global growth and India overtaking China – is this the 'new normal'? | Business | The Guardian
FIIs betting on India's all-round growth; IMF, World Bank forecasts add to the appeal - The Economic Times
India to surpass China in economic growth - Mar. 23, 2015
Ahead of IMF Meet, Lagarde Says India Growth Bright Spot - NDTVProfit.com

All the world including IMF, World Bank etc.. is wrong and @RiazHaq is right.

I would not even go further than this on refuting RiazHaq's jealousy filled posts via his inconsequential blog.



Unless you people are Arabs, Vedic mathematics is legacy of people residing both in present day India and Pakistan. For your information Vedic mathematics has origins in Indus valley civilization.

Indian mathematics - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Based on Indian cooked GDP, of course India has surpassed China.

Not only will India have the fastest growth rates, with Modi's magic, India will have the largest economy based on nominal figures. This Modi is a genius I tell ya.

Heck, India might have an economy bigger than both the U.S. and China combined by the time Modi's term is finished.

Never underestimate Vedic math and Modi the magician.

 

[ito]

Based on Indian cooked GDP, of course India has surpassed China.

Not only will India have the fastest growth rates, with Modi's magic, India will have the largest economy based on nominal figures. This Modi is a genius I tell ya.

Heck, India might have an economy bigger than both the U.S. and China combined by the time Modi's term is finished.

Never underestimate Vedic math and Modi the magician.

Yes, IMF and World Bank are all Indian paid agents.

 

[Beidou2020]

Yes, IMF and World Bank are all Indian paid agents.

IMF and World Bank go with the numbers the government gives.

 

[ito]

IMF and World Bank go with the numbers the government gives.

So the Chinese statistics also provided by Chinese to IMF and World Bank?