India’s forex reserves fall to 20-month low

[Bilal9]

Foreign exchange reserves decreased around $70 billion since its peak in September 2021​

India's foreign exchange reserves fell $7.5 billion to $572.7 billion during the week ended on 15 July, according to the central bank latest data.
The reserves are now at 20-month low, lowest since 6 November 2020 when it was $568 billion, Indian news outlet Business Standard reported.

The decline in reserves of almost $60 billion in 2022 is mostly attributable to the strong involvement of the central bank in the foreign currency market. Since the outbreak of war in Europe in late February, the rupee has been under pressure. In 2022, the Indian rupee has declined against the dollar by almost 7 percent.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said the current level of foreign exchange reserves were adequate.

"…the Indian rupee is holding up well relative to both advanced and emerging market economies (EME) peers. This is because our underlying fundamentals are strong, resilient, and intact. The recovery is gradually strengthening. The current account deficit is modest. Inflation is stabilising. The financial sector is well-capitalised and sound. The external debt-to-GDP ratio is declining. The foreign exchange reserves are adequate," Shaktikanta said.

The July RBI bulletin had said the foreign exchange reserves at $ 580.3 billion on 8 July 2022, were equivalent to 9.5 months of imports projected for 2022-23.

 

[MH.Yang]

In June 2022, India's monthly deficit reached US $25.63 billion.

In the next nine months, India still has $267billion of foreign debt maturing and needs to be repaid.

 

[American Pakistani]

As a Pakistani whose nation have only 15 billion foreign reserves thanks to corrupt beghairat politicians, I can only feel envious about massive 572billion Indian reserves.

 

[Indos]

"…the Indian rupee is holding up well relative to both advanced and emerging market economies (EME) peers. This is because our underlying fundamentals are strong, resilient, and intact. The recovery is gradually strengthening. The current account deficit is modest. Inflation is stabilising. The financial sector is well-capitalised and sound. The external debt-to-GDP ratio is declining. The foreign exchange reserves are adequate," Shaktikanta said.​

This statement is wrong if we compare to Indonesia, China, and Saudi Arabia.

 

[MH.Yang]

The CPI of the USA reached 9.1% in June, and raising interest rates did not solve the problem of inflation. If it goes on like this, the global economic crisis will soon come.

U.S. Consumer Price Index (July 2024)

U.S. Consumer Price Index (July 2024)

economics.td.com

In order to quell inflation, the USA is bound to raise interest rates more aggressively. This will lead to faster depreciation of currencies in most countries, and more and more countries will go bankrupt and default. USA will also significantly weaken its consumption capacity and plunge the stock market due to interest rate hikes, thus entering the economic recession cycle. The recession of the USA will also drag the global economy into recession, and even China's export trade and economic growth will be seriously affected.

 

[my2cents]

The CPI of the USA reached 9.1% in June, and raising interest rates did not solve the problem of inflation. If it goes on like this, the global economic crisis will soon come.

U.S. Consumer Price Index (July 2024)

U.S. Consumer Price Index (July 2024)

economics.td.com

In order to quell inflation, the USA is bound to raise interest rates more aggressively. This will lead to faster depreciation of currencies in most countries, and more and more countries will go bankrupt and default. USA will also significantly weaken its consumption capacity and plunge the stock market due to interest rate hikes, thus entering the economic recession cycle. The recession of the USA will also drag the global economy into recession, and even China's export trade and economic growth will be seriously affected.

Over reliant on usa is based on consumption economy. Right now in usa quantitative easing of money has been tightened, so we all have to be prepared for less demand for goods. Export oriented countries like China, Europe, India to a lesser extent will be effected.

 

[Kedikesenfare2]

Tbf, all developing nations without natural resources are losing reserves. Even industrial giants like Germany are posting deficits. It's crazy.

Germany Posts First Monthly Trade Deficit in 30 Years (Published 2022)

High energy prices and disrupted supply chains dent the image of “Made in Germany,” as May imports exceeded exports for the first time in decades.

www.nytimes.com

 

[GS Zhou]

Tbf, all developing nations without natural resources are losing reserves. Even industrial giants like Germany are posting deficits. It's crazy.

Germany Posts First Monthly Trade Deficit in 30 Years (Published 2022)

High energy prices and disrupted supply chains dent the image of “Made in Germany,” as May imports exceeded exports for the first time in decades.

www.nytimes.com

Here is the trade surplus data of a developing nation with few nature resources available for exports.

China Balance of Trade

China recorded a trade surplus of 95.27 USD Billion in October of 2024. This page provides - China Balance of Trade - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

This is because our underlying fundamentals are strong, resilient, and intact.

The underlying fundamental that is strong, resilient and intact.

India Balance of Trade

India recorded a trade deficit of 20.80 USD Billion in September of 2024. This page provides the latest reported value for - India Balance of Trade - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

tradingeconomics.com

 

[Lava820]

The underlying fundamental that is strong, resilient and intact.
View attachment 865047

India Balance of Trade

India recorded a trade deficit of 20.80 USD Billion in September of 2024. This page provides the latest reported value for - India Balance of Trade - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

tradingeconomics.com

China's economy records slowest growth since the start of 2020

China's economy has recorded its worst quarterly performance in over two years, after months of harsh Covid lockdowns wreaked havoc across the country.

www.google.com

In June 2022, India's monthly deficit reached US $25.63 billion.

In the next nine months, India still has $267billion of foreign debt maturing and needs to be repaid.

While it is true that payment of $267.7 billion of debt is due in less than a year, the GOI's share in this is just $7.7 billion or less than 3%, thus the debt level of the government is very much manageable and stands out safe.

India's overall exports (Merchandise and Services combined) in June 2022* are estimated to be USD 64.91 Billlion. Overall trade deficit is $17.51 billion

India’s overall exports (Merchandise and Services) grow by 23% in June; Exports growth in 1st quarter over 25%;

India’s overall exports (Merchandise and Services combined) in June 2022* are estimated to be USD 64

pib.gov.in

 

[MH.Yang]

China's economy records slowest growth since the start of 2020

China's economy has recorded its worst quarterly performance in over two years, after months of harsh Covid lockdowns wreaked havoc across the country.

www.google.com

While it is true that payment of $267.7 billion of debt is due in less than a year, the GOI's share in this is just $7.7 billion or less than 3%, thus the debt level of the government is very much manageable and stands out safe.

India's overall exports (Merchandise and Services combined) in June 2022* are estimated to be USD 64.91 Billlion. Overall trade deficit is $17.51 billion

India’s overall exports (Merchandise and Services) grow by 23% in June; Exports growth in 1st quarter over 25%;

India’s overall exports (Merchandise and Services combined) in June 2022* are estimated to be USD 64

pib.gov.in